USA BUBBLE (s&p futures) VS USA NO BUBBLE (treasury)USA Bubble: Real GDP - S&P Future (excluding the dollar revaluation) = -112%
USA NO Bubble: Real GDP - Treasury 30y (excluding the dollar revaluation) = +2.4%
data up to 10/2014
THE TREASURY 30Y SEEMS TO REFLECT THE PERFORMANCE OF REAL USA ECONOMY , THE REDUCTION OF YIELD IS IN LINE WITH THE RISE OF REAL GDP AND THE STRENGTHENING DOLLAR
Treasury
US 10-YR to test 2013 HighsThe 10-YR is seeing demand as every data point in 2015 has come under expectations, while the slump in US economic data began months ago. Key bond gurus, such as Gundlach and Gross, look at the US 10-Y to reach a 1-handle.
Safe-haven demand will be a major trend in 2015 as volatility increases, which will drive more traders into treasuries. Initially, look for price action to test the October highs before extending gains to the 2013 highs.
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UUP Dollar Bullish Fund Carving Out Inverse Head & Shoulders Based on this pattern triggering on a move over ~21.60 you could expect a measured move to ~22 before hitting resistance. The timing of this breakout seems to be coinciding with market topping action which further strengthens the likelihood of this chart having predictive utility.
This chart taken together with today's breakout in Treasuries (TLT) and over 30% spike in the VIX this tells a tale of risk aversion and flight to safety into bonds, US Dollar and possibly gold.