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Treasurybonds

You Say Volatility...I say Harmony?!?!Well Well Well I'm back. It seems that we've had further conformation today of both the downward channel I drew as well as the declaration the 10 year Treasury Note Yields and the DJI are in a chaotic Dionysian dance, which seems volatile, in so far as you don't find the beauty in the chaos. Todays trading shows immediate correlations if you look at the minute charts, with yield lows reaching the .77-.823 initiating the DOW bulls and yield highs of .86-.847 initiating the warrior bears to come out and play: 9:32am Dow-24207 9:47am T Notes-2.86% 1:39pm - Dow-23373 T Notes-2.778% 2:25pm- Dow-24038 T Notes-2.847% 3:11pm- Dow-23747 T Notes-2.822% 3:51pm Dow-24369 T Notes-2.85% 4:00pm Dow-24190 T Notes- 2.855% Thus, you Apollonian form lovers can keep shouting volatility, while I say embrace the wine god and pour yourself a glass to see order in the chaos. Moving on, we can see the downtrend channel drawn yesterday has now been tested briefly three times, only to retrace back upwards each time, a clear indicator that its formed some sort of support for the short term movement of the market. Because the market has moved clearly in sync with yield rates, most attempt to be predictive in the short term should take into account what the yield rates on the 10 year are while looking at the candlestick movement, however I've drawn the blue lines as a potential formation of a falling wedge, as the highs are falling more steeply than the lows. If this does come to form and the bulls come out, we should recognize this does not mean the correction is complete, as the market needs to break this downtrend channel before that sentiment can bear (pun intended) any weight. My gut says because the 100 day MA has not been such a strong support, its within reason even if the falling wedge is confirmed to expect a test of the 200 day MA or even the .386 retracement point perhaps not immediately, but over the short to medium term. This expectation I feel is merited by the fact the market has not found much if any bullish legs at all when rates have gotten above 2.85-2.86% point where it currently is now. *This has been another PSA from your big friendly neophytic DOW Grizzly welcoming you to recognize before closing I am no expert and this is not financial advice..but also daring you to tell me how this is wrong!*
DJ:DJIShort
by jcalo23
US 30 Year Treasury Bill Long Trade on H4 ChartI am entering a long position into long term US treasuries from a support line clearly visible on H4 and daily charts. Although the long term perspective for the price of bonds is negative due to expected rate hikes later this year and next year, on the shorter time scale (few weeks) the Treasuries seems under-priced after the strong decline last few weeks and there are good chances of success with this trade. Risk/Reward at 1.09. Always above 1 at all my trades!
ULong
by auroraspot
US 30yr T-Bonds Ideal EntryEntry plan is based on the US 30yr T-Bonds Topping Pattern . Watching the fib retrace area for a high that would establish the right shoulder within the monthly head and shoulder pattern. Quarterly bull cycle counts point towards a high during Q1 '18 which aligns with the monthly target of February '18. My trading account would welcome an earlier high with open arms but it's entirely up to the market. Ideally I'd be able to hop in around $160-$161 after a rejection of that fib area and then ride the move down to my first target at $128 (2013 low). I'll probably take profit there and then go long back to the neckline of this pattern before the next move down to $89 (2000 major low). We still have awhile before we see price prepare to turn so this is a watch and wait. My target reward:risk ratio is at least 5-6:1, again that depends on what price action appears. I'll publish a more detailed plan as well as my entry if/when that time comes. For more in depth analysis on this trade and others checkout my site, PatsTrades. Link is in my profile status box. Thanks!
UShort
by patrick186
US 30yr T-Bonds Topping PatternThis is my favorite and the cleanest opportunity I have been able to find across all sectors/markets. I've been watching this develop for quite some time now and the evidence for a large sell-off into the future is piling up. The head and shoulder pattern on the quarterly/monthly is one of the best things in that pile. We saw a false break to the upside during 2016 but then sold off hard to close below, forming a very large yearly high-test candle. We stalled at support during Q1 and have since rallied into Q2, establishing the neckline. I'm now waiting for a retest of the fib retrace levels where a right shoulder would ideally form. If that does occur I think we'll see a continuation of this new long-term bearish trend that should head down to the Q4 '13 key low. If the stars align price will then bounce from there to establish a neckline within a much larger head and shoulder pattern with price pulling back to our current neckline and the fib retrace levels which would be sitting right on top of that area. We would then head down to retest the Q1 2000 low. This entire theory could take between 5-10 years to play out but man is it the perfect candidate for the "big cahuna" title... Checkout my website @ patstrades.com for more in-depth analysis on this trade and many others. The link can be found on my profile page in the status bar right below my picture. Thanks for reading!
UShort
by patrick186
Out of neutral spread, looking for directional again. Hello Traders, I've exited my neutral options spread on $TLT today for decent gains as price retreated back to the center of it. I am now looking for the potential to add back into a directional position on $IEF (better cost basis then $TLH or $TLT) through common shares if we get a bounce at the 23.6% fibonacci level. Stop will be announced in the updates section if I decide to add back into a bullish position. Anyhow, good luck to any in bond positions. Trade smart, and with a plan. Cheers. =)
ILong
by Daniel.B
Time To Sell BondsLooks like we're topping out here at the peak of a massive ascending wedge. HIGHLY likely we form a beautiful high test on the quarterly chart but I'm not going to wait around for that to happen. Martin Armstrong's Socrates signaling major trend change to downside within TLT which confirms techs. Trade Management: First major area of support seems to be around 115-120. We'll likely breakout and retest that level, then head back up to test bottom of wedge before headin down to the 100~ area where we formed our major 2014 low. Best guess is we bounce off of the 100~ area heading back up to the monthly 50/60 ema and 115-120ish level to form a right shoulder. If/when we get that right shoulder we'll then break down to all time lows. If this occurs it is going to be due to massive instability within US Government. Probability of gov default will rise DRAMATICALLY and could likely occur.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by patrick186