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Treasurybonds

Bond Yields point to recession....or this time it's different?The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.19%). When the spread increases, it means there's falling demand for long-term Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher risk, higher reward investments. Investors think interest rates will now rise in the short term. Currently, the 10y-2y is at 0.8 and rising which last happened in December 2007, April 2001, December 1990, July 1986, October 1971... you get it. It's a reliable indicator, and in the past, a negative 10-2 spread has predicted every recession from 1955 to 2018 (SOURCE), but has occurred 6-24 months before the recession occurring. The last time it went negative was in August 2019. THE ANALYSIS Notice that we're approaching a golden cross (yellow 50ema crossing the white 200ema). The last time this happened was January 2008, and May 2001. I've overlaid the S&P- you can see it's crashed. So is this a new paradigm of monetary policy? Or does nothing change? Is this time really different? Here's the historical US Yield Curve source. MORE ABOUT THE YIELD CURVE Bond prices and yields move inversely of each other. When bond prices go up yields go down, and vice versa. The reason that lower yields in the long term are a indicator for the economy is because longer term bonds are seen as safe investments meant for preserving wealth; while stocks, forex, and derivatives are riskier and used for growing wealth. When investors have a good outlook on the economy, they will sell their long term bonds and put that money into the riskier investments listed above. This flight from longer term bonds to riskier investments causes demand for the longer term bonds to fall, causing bond prices to fall ,and yields to increase. In times of bad economic outlook, people will start moving their money from stocks into the longer term bonds as a way to protect themselves from potential future downturns. This flight from stocks to longer term bonds causes demand to increase, causing bond prices to increase, and yields to go down. The change in bond yields is based on bond price, which is based on supply and demand . HISTORICAL CONTEXT: The 10-2 spread reached a high of 2.91% in 2011, and went as low as -2.41% in 1980. During recession, central banks lower rates pushing down the i.r. curve. When the spread starts contracting, market expects a coming cut of the i.r. and a future lower curve. For this reason, real world curves (vs academic ones) are decreasing on the long terms: a kind of economic cycle is implied. You may also read the spread under a credit risk point of view: a tight spread means "if an issuer can survive 2y, it is very likely that it will survive also 10y therefore a small extra premium is required". This is very clean in distressed bond issuers: implied yields usually form a reversed term structured (decreasing like an hyperbola). See more:
TVC:US10YLong
by TMoneyBidness
54
Bullish Looking Treasury Bonds May Push USDJPY Even LowerHello traders! Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes and USDJPY, their price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective. As you may already know, 10Y US Notes(treasury bonds) and USDJPY are in negative correlation. So, after recent big sideways price action and corrective consolidation, the pattern is becoming clearer and clearer. Well, what we see is that USDJPY can be forming a bigger bearish running triangle formation, which can sooner or later push the price below 104 level, ideally towards 103 - 102 area, mainly because of current bounce on 10Y US Notes, which seems to have a completed flag pattern, from EW perspective, an a-b-c corrective decline, where wave "c" completed an ending diagonal. Be humble and trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
1
What Yield? 2-Year Treasury Lows May Signal It's Bitcoin Time Several stakeholders in the crypto market see a lack of yields coming from traditional markets as a sign cryptocurrency has a place in uncertain times. “We are moving into a period of stagflation – stagnant growth and inflation – which creates a steepening of yield curves in the fixed income world,” said Chris Thomas, head of digital assets for Swissquote Bank. Indeed, U.S. Treasury yields have dropped in 2020 – the two-year maturity is at its lowest yield in over 10 years. “I have a customer leaving bonds for bitcoin. I look at that as very bullish,” said Henrik Kugelberg, a Sweden-based over-the-counter crypto trader. “Bonds that are supposed to be the safest bet there is to actually make a buck on your invested money now all of a sudden seems less attractive than bitcoin.”
TVC:US02YLong
by danielcawrey