Long 10Y, Short 2Y on Yield Curve NormalisationWorld's most important and the largest financial market is the US Treasury. Annual issuance of U.S. Treasuries has exploded. A record USD 23 trillion of treasuries were issued in 2023.
This market is experiencing gradual but notable shifts due to the Federal Reserve (Fed) recent tapering of quantitative tightening and the Treasury buyback. Collective impact has led to demand divergence across different maturities.
The yield curve starting to normalize once more. Economic outlook impacts the yield curve. Not only that, the Fed’s quantitative tightening (“QT”) campaign also has an enormous influence.
At its most recent FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed would start to slow its balance sheet runoff. The runoff results in supply contraction enabling greater demand for long-term treasuries and a subsequent yield curve normalization.
Runoff refers to the reduction in Fed’s balance sheet as they opt to let their treasury holdings mature without renewing them. This activity leads to a supply contraction.
RECENT HAWKISH FED MEETING CAME WITH A CAVEAT
Since 2022, the Fed has been engaged in a QT campaign. Raising rates is its primary tool. Balance Sheet reduction is an additional strategy to manage monetary environment.
The Fed first announced that it would start to reduce holdings of US treasuries at a fixed pace at its May 2022 meeting. The pace of reduction accelerated as Fed stepped up QT. Treasury runoff has continued at a fixed pace since then.
At the April FOMC meeting, Fed announced its decision to slowdown the runoff. In other words, Fed would start to let treasuries to mature at a slower pace.
Starting from the first of June, the Fed will decrease the maximum amount of treasuries that can mature without being replaced from USD 60 billion per month to USD 25 billion.
Fed’s outlook on rate cuts was hawkish. But its resolve to taper runoff is dovish signalling the Fed’s end of QT campaign through balance sheet reduction. Treasury runoff tapering impact will be noticed additional liquidity before rate cuts arrive.
HOLDINGS & RUN-OFF IS AIMED AT LONG-TERM TREASURIES
Fed’s QT via treasury holdings is implemented through the non-renewal of existing holdings.
Crucially, the impact of letting treasuries mature is more pronounced on long-term treasuries than short term ones. As short-term treasuries mature more often, the impact of this run-off on near-term treasury demand is limited.
In contrast, the impact on long-dated expiries is more pronounced. Analysing the cumulative run-off since May 2022, the largest impact on long-term treasuries has been on 5 to 10 years category which consists primarily of 10-Year notes. This run-off has been particularly high over the last few months. On the contrary, the holdings of 10+ year treasuries have increased.
Source – Federal Reserve
TAPERING RUNOFF SUGGESTS IMPROVEMENT IN LONG-TERM TREASURY DEMAND
Impact on benchmark 10-Year treasuries will be most pronounced as the Fed moves to slow the pace of its runoff. Longer maturities have lagged near-term ones at recent auctions. It was most apparent at the latest auctions.
The 10-Year treasury auction raised USD 42B, that is far higher than the average over the last twelve auctions at USD 31B. While the bid-to-cover was higher than the previous auction in April, it was below the average over the last twelve auctions. Indirect bidding was below average at 65.5%. Overall, this suggests an unimpressive result.
In sharp contrast, 3-Year treasury auction showed strong demand. It raised USD 58B, the highest since 2021. Bid-to-cover was higher than the last auction. Non-dealer bidding was also above average at 85.1% (81.7% average). Similarly, the Treasury 5-Year auction raised USD 70B with an above average non-dealer bidding. Both 3-Year and 5-Year auction results were much stronger.
As observed through the CME TreasuryWatch Tool , the demand for 2-year treasuries has been noticeably higher, as suggested by the bid-to-cover ratios, compared to 10-year and 30-year treasuries.
Source – CME TreasuryWatch
FED’S TAPERING TO FUEL 10Y SPREAD TO OUTPERFORM 5Y SPREAD
Yield curve is normalizing once more following the decline in the 10Y-2Y spread at the start of 2024. This trend is likely to continue as yields for longer dated maturities rise higher than near-term maturities.
Mint Finance highlighted previously that the 5Y-2Y spread is likely to outperform the 10Y-2Y spread. However, as Fed starts to taper its balance sheet run-off, the impact is likely to be felt strongest at the 10Y maturity allowing demand for these treasuries to rise once more.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Fed’s balance sheet runoff slowdown and the underperformance of the 10Y-2Y spread relative to the 5Y-2Y spread, the 10Y-2Y spread has potential outperform in the near term as the yield curve turns to normalcy.
To harness gains from this normalization, investors can opt to execute a spread trade consisting of Yield futures.
CME Yield futures are quoted directly in yield with a one basis point change in the yield representing a P&L of USD 10. As yield futures across various maturities represent the same notional, spread P&L calculations are equally intuitive with a one basis point change in the spread between two separate maturities also adding up to a P&L of USD 10.
• Entry: -32.3 basis points
• Target: -28.3 basis points
• Stop Loss: -35.3 basis points
• Profit at Target: USD 400
• Loss at Stop: USD 300
• Reward to Risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
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