Treasuryyield
US30Y - following the path of the previously forecasted uptrend US30-year bond yields are following the uptrend that we forecasted in the post of April 28. It is currently in the final stages of minor wave 1 which is part of the 5 impulse waves that should lead yields to the area surrounding 2.44%, where intermediate wave 3 should be completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
10 yr10 year looks ready to break up which could be signaling risk on will be back over the next 2-3 years Fam
US 10YR TREASURY YIELD to 3.50-4.00% in 2020?Expecting a strong reversal on the 10yr yields.
Good Luck.
TNX study using Parabolic SAR & 40MA makes trading SPX look easyHigher highs not impossible in following months here's why. In this Parabolic SAR pattern match I'm interested in the months subsequent to a match when yield closes first time below average (marked by red verticals). It's been a good time to buy the months after, and for S&P to go on & make new highs. NOT ADVICE DYOR.
NOTE THE CORRECTION ON CHART BELOW where second A starts.
UD1! That's where money went...yield curve explainedCBOT:UD1!
The UD1! is on up trend and explains where all the stock market money has gone the past week...lol. I think I understand yield curve, but missed this one. ; )
T-Bond Futures Setup on Daily ChartsEntering into long position with Reward to Risk of 1.8 in US 30 years Treasury Bonds, fantastic high quality opportunity. I hope it will work out as expected!
US 30 Year Treasury Bill Long Trade on H4 ChartI am entering a long position into long term US treasuries from a support line clearly visible on H4 and daily charts. Although the long term perspective for the price of bonds is negative due to expected rate hikes later this year and next year, on the shorter time scale (few weeks) the Treasuries seems under-priced after the strong decline last few weeks and there are good chances of success with this trade. Risk/Reward at 1.09. Always above 1 at all my trades!
US 30-Year Treasury Bonds Long Trade on H1 ChartThe support zone at 152.05 is confirmed and well backed with strong buying activity. I am entering more aggressively at market with 1.40 Reward to Risk Ratio. If tomorrow US NFP data is negative it will additionally benefit this trade.
What is going on?U.S. treasury bond yields are signalling deflation, whilst stock melt up indicating an inflationary economy. Does the bond market know something that stocks don't?
US 10-yr yield: Watch if Friday's close is below 2.3%Friday's close below 2.3% would confirm a falling top pattern and open doors for sell-off to 2.0%... that is a 30 bps drop.
The obvious casualty of a weak close would be the Dollar-Yen pair - it could revisit 110.00 levels.
Reflation??? Hmmm.... Looks like the crowded bond short consensus/reflation trade is about to get smacked... Positions in stock and options between $TLH and $TLT. Extreme positioning usually does not end well for the herd.
I wonder if people shorting when market rate for 10-Years was above 2.31% ever even knew that rates have been under pressure since peaking over 3 decades ago.... Nevertheless rates can end the constant multi-decade state of decline, but my bias still remains to rates breaking the 2.31% support.
TLH: Long Positioning
TLT: Neutral Positioning
TREASURY YIELDS TO GO BACK UP - Short BondsUptrend should resume after the 61.8% retracement and bullish divergence.
Fundamentally a normal mean reversion of term premium is occurring.
This should also support the USD in the medium-term and keep the uptrend intact for 2017.
However the move may be choppy because of extreme long positioning.
