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XAU/USD MARKET ANALYSIS 25.4.21Gold attempted to tackle the $1,800 an ounce this week — a level, which once breached, could help get the precious metal above $1,900 an ounce, according to analysts. Even though the attack on $1,800 was unsuccessful for now, analysts remain optimistic on gold's near-term price direction. The positive outlook is largely due to two drivers — the recent bitcoin selloff and U.S. President Joe Biden's plan to nearly double the capital gains tax rate for wealthy Americans. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,776.90, flat on the week. "We can get a move in gold after seeing the double-bottom. And next week might be the catalyst to push the precious metal higher due to bitcoin's drop and Biden tax announcement," RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News. Bitcoin selloff The popular cryptocurrency was down more than 9% on Friday, heading for the worst week in almost two months. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $50,045, down 5.62% on the day. This renewed negative volatility in bitcoin could prove beneficial to gold, which has been losing the popularity battle against bitcoin. "Bitcoin chart looks a bit negative. Bitcoin has been one of the reasons that held gold back. Some natural buyers of gold have been buyers of bitcoin. And if bitcoin stays down, next push higher in gold could see more sponsorship, and the precious metal could take some people back from bitcoin," said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. Bitcoin's $48,000 level is important to keep an eye on. "This is where I saw chart support," said Nedoss. "Bitcoin could trade down to $43,000 — that is where the 200-day moving average is. The cryptocurrency hasn't traded below $45,000 since breaching it back in February." Nedoss added that if $54,000 can hold, it would be positive for bitcoin. Biden's capital-gains tax increase Biden's proposal means that the federal tax rates for some investors could be as high as 43.4%, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter. "Some of the highest capital-gains taxes around the world are in the 30% mark. Most are around 20%. This is an overreach. And with Biden's infrastructure spending plans, we could be looking at stagflation," Pavilonis said. Stagflation is a period of inflation combined with a decline in GDP. Biden's plan is impacting equities, cryptocurrencies, and most importantly, the U.S. dollar, which has an inverse relationship to gold. "The dollar does not seem to be liking a lot of the policies coming out of Washington, including the Biden administration's proposed new capital-gains tax increase. Also, one of the next big initiatives is infrastructure spending. Both of those factors are hurting the dollar, and that is positive for gold," said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. If the tax structure becomes less favorable for those investors holding a lot of capital priced in U.S. dollars, they are going to find other places to put their money, Millman explained. "If the capital gains tax makes the U.S. a less favorable destination, there will be less incentive for people to hold money in U.S. dollars. That is going to hurt the purchasing power of the dollar generally," Millman said. Also, markets are not forgetting about inflation, which is said to be a major driver for gold later this year. "Inflation expectations are the highest they have been in years. We have not seen a lot of measured inflation yet because the velocity of money is pretty low. But with infrastructure spending coming up, markets think that at some point, this will boost inflation," Millman added. Getting through $1,800 Pavilonis noted that once we get above $1,800, gold's moves higher could become bigger due to fewer resistance levels. "Gold and silver would do very well. We are set up for a longer run higher here in gold. If we close above $1,800, we can move up quickly towards $1,900," he said. For gold to get past the $1,800 level, the U.S. dollar index would have to drop below 90, noted Nedoss. "On the week, gold hasn't done too bad. As long as we close above $1,765, it will be a positive week," he said. "We would need to see the U.S. dollar put in new lows to take out $1,800. Might need the 89 handle in the dollar index." The reason why $1,800 is proving to be a strong resistance level is that the $1,806 level is the 100-day moving average for gold. "It's possible to hit $1,800. With all this inflation talk, I am surprised gold is not doing better," Nedoss said. Millman noted that if $1,800 is breached, there is "a ton of room for gold to rally towards its highs in the $1,900 range." However, for next week, one thing to be aware of is potentially downward pressure coming from positive macroeconomic data, Millman warned. "We have seen some green shoots in manufacturing. A lot of short-term reactions to economic data will be bad for gold and good for the broader economy. The $1,800 is pretty strong resistance level that bulls would have to fight to push gold above it." Data to watch There is a slate of macroeconomic data to keep an eye on next week. The most-watched event will be the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday and will be followed by the central bank Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. "The Fed is set to leave monetary policy unchanged – rates remaining in the 0-0.25% range and QE monthly asset purchases at $120 billion – with policymakers set to re-affirm there will be no shift in stance until 'substantial further progress' on the recovery," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. Also, the Bank of Japan will be making its interest rate announcement on Tuesday. Thursday will be an important day to monitor on the data front, with the U.S. GDP Q1 preliminary numbers, jobless claims, and pending home sales on the docket. "Q1 GDP report is likely to show another fantastic growth figure, led by stimulus fuelled consumer spending. We are expecting annualized growth of 7.4%," Knightley added. Analysts will also be monitoring the U.S. durable goods orders on Monday, house price index and CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, as well as the PCE price index on Friday. On top of all the data releases, Biden is scheduled to make his first speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday. Markets will be looking for more details about his tax hike plans.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by globalsymmetrygroup
1
XAU/USD MARKET ANALYSISGold could be on the brink of another rally as it tops key resistance levels and moves towards $1,800 an ounce, according to analysts. The precious metal is wrapping up its second consecutive week of gains after a positive start to Q2 amid a weaker U.S. dollar and retreating U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,779.90, up 2% on the week. "The move in gold has been predominately driven by the U.S. dollar, which is continuing to drop. The dollar index is at 91.5 right now. Very important to note, we've seen a pretty significant decline from the 10-year yield and along the curve broadly. All of that has driven gold to the upside," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. The momentum is definitely on gold's side right now, RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News. "If we can close above $1,815 next week, we have a good shot at a very momentous move again to the highs. Possibly continue gold's secular bull market," Pavilonis said. "Markets have calmed down a bit. We had so much pressure from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank trying to ease tensions in the yields, and it worked. And what they have been doing behind the scenes is also working, giving metals some reprieve." The weaker U.S. dollar has finally allowed gold to step out of its tight trading range, said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. "The greenback's support has been eroded with 10-year Treasury yields moving below the psychologically important 1.60% mark, which in turn has allowed spot gold to break above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since early February," Tan said. Next weeks also marks the Federal Reserve media blackout period ahead of its monetary policy announcement on April 28. ING said that no additional Fed speakers could mean a weaker U.S. dollar, which is beneficial for gold. "A quieter week for U.S. data and the Fed in blackout period could favor a continuation of benign market trends and a slightly weaker USD," the ING strategists wrote. There is no significant resistance for gold until the $1,800, said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. "The $1,809.40 is the 100-day moving average, and over time we will hit it." It was key that the precious metal didn't close below $1,736.40 — this week's lows, Nedoss added. "A lot of this has been data-driven," he said. The market is also recalibrating after pricing in too much inflation too soon, Melek explained. "Inflation expectations have been a bit too rich, and they have been going down. It suggests that the market recalibrated its view. We've seen too much of an increase along the yield curve in its expectation of higher inflation, and now we are paring it back. Also, global economic concerns are playing a role as some countries who don't have a robust vaccine deployment plan could have a negative impact on the global recovery," he said. In the meantime, the algorithmic community has been short on gold, but traders need to watch the $1,808 level for a change in that trend, Melek noted. "Prices just north of $1,800 would catalyze the covering of a significant portion of current CTA short positions." However, it is too early to get too excited when it comes to gold's future price action, Melek warned. "We passed the 50-day moving average, the next level here is around north of $1,800." Before moving much higher, there needs to be a confirmation that the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields is contained. "The big battle here will be between the Fed and the market. The Fed is saying that any inflation will likely be transitory due to base effects, while the market might start to worry that they are behind the curve. We are still waiting for the Fed statement to tell us that they will stay put," Melek stated. Data to watch The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcements are on the radar next week. They come just one week ahead of the Federal Reserve's April 27-28 monetary policy meeting. "The ECB will look through any temporary increases in headline inflation and will not tolerate significant moves in bond yields unless they are the result of improved growth prospects. The bank's decision to front-load asset purchases at the last meeting was meant to cap the rise in yields, which have tracked moves in U.S. Treasuries," ING strategists said. Markets will also be eyeing the latest U.S. jobless claims data and existing home sales, both due out on Thursday, as well as Friday's U.S. manufacturing PMI and new home sales. Since the macro data will be quieter than usual next week, analysts are also carefully monitoring the progress of U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. "There is little sign of bi-partisanship on the $2tn package, and it seems that the Democrats are going to push it through the reconciliation process to avoid the need for 60 Senators to agree to put it to a vote. Nonetheless, not all Democrats are fully on board, meaning we could yet see changes to the package, especially surrounding the taxation part," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by globalsymmetrygroup
2
ILUS International April 6th TA and Hopeful DestinyILUS International OTC Pink Sheet: The OTC seems to have been receiving a lot of short interest and MMs sitting on the bid lately. ILUS in particular has been no exception. The MMs seem to be accumulating a bunch of cheap shares of ILUS 🤔. I anticipate testing ATH on the next big run up $0.18. Whether it be another PR / Acquisition / or Merger catalyst, This ticker seems to have a lot of upside. (EV Disruptive Technology, Crypto, Government Contracts....)
OTC:ILUSLong
by ProPhreshTrader
Bullish on BTC(This is not financial advice) Hey guys, this is a quick analysis on Bitcoin of which I am very bullish on right now. To be honest the main reason I even made this analysis in the first place was I just had a feeling Bitcoin is breaking 60k for new highs this week and this just concluded it for me, as well as news from Paypal adding crypto withdrawl etc. and Chipotle maybe adding it to there balance sheet. BTC is coming out of its second range box and at a price of around $61200. It has followed this pattern what looks to be two times now and is also bouncing off supports on a uptrend. I also set up a short term smaller support that it has been following pretty well the past few days. The last thing that makes me bullish is the Pitchfork that it seems to follow pretty well that it bounces inside of. Overall I am a big crypto fan and there is never a bad time to buy BTC but for the short term this is a good buy and I have a PT of $77600. This will also help stocks like $RIOT $MARA $BTBT $VYGVF $MA $V $PYPL. Be sure to leave a comment and let me know what you think and like and follow. Thanks! - Vlaire
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by vlaire
BOEING INVERsE HEAD & SHOULDERS 1HThe S&P 500 retreated to its trend support this last week and bounced big time back near all time highs. That being said, I'm bullish on the market this week. Boeing has a very nice looking chart on the daily time frame finding support after a swing high and I've discovered a very clear inverse head and shoulders pattern form on the hourly chart. A break of the neckline will be the trigger for me to look to go long. I'll be buying the pull back after the break this week for a swing trade. Reference my chart for a further breakdown of this trade idea. Thanks for reading and good luck out there!
NYSE:BALong
by hilosuccess