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Trend-reversal

Going "all in" on a Trend reversal prediction.COINBASE:BTCUSDT This is more about what i did in confidence than a strategy but maybe anyone commenting can help understand WHAT CAUSED the trend reversal as opposed to what we find all the time "How to spot a trend reversal" SO lets get into the story of what happened. Sorry but this is a long one. •What happened •my prediction •what I'll do next What happened: I've only been involved in trading for a very short while and by that I mean just a couple of months but I've been spending a lot of time reading charts trying to analyze them and figuring out exactly what are we supposed to be drawing on these charts to come up with our analysis so in a sense it's like studying TA. I've taken my time to actually go through podcasts and videos and instructional information that is presented by actual investors who mean something to the market and people who are CPA's by their trade. It is now February 26th at 10:18 AM but 2 nights ago on February 24th at about 11:30 PM I was staring at the charts and realized that my lines of analysis are not really lining up and I thought it was me. I erased all my information my support and resistance lines and everything else and I just left a naked chart without even looking at the RSI. I started drawing some new trend lines and realized they're getting wider at the bottom and narrow at the top all the way at the right side of bitcoin or MANA or cardeno or ENJ. In essence the entire crypto market that I was looking at all had the same exact analysis and the same exact trend lines being drawn being drawn or in this case redrawn. I decided to turn on my 100 moving average which I almost never use and use and I commonly use the 21 the 50 and the 200 moving average. I noticed Something happening with the 21 and how it relates to the 50 and the 100. So I started to look backwards in time at the same stock market and look for the same instance related to the arlimited to the article what's happening with buying selling volume and so on. The bottom line is ultimately I predicted a trend reversal Several hours before it took place and I was feeling very confident about it so I took my entire portfolio and I went all in on 2 stocks. I noticed that I had about 10 minutes of a climb where I could buy now and over the next 10 minutes I can sell and still make some small gain even enough just to cover my trade fees. But I wanted to take the next 10 minutes and run a deep analysis as far as I can go on the little bit that I understand and try and figure out how high will it go. Again like I said I was confident that there was a trend reversal. But I wanted to know how far is it going to go as it goes up. I looked at the history of the same related tread reversals on all of the same socks and they covered basically 1000 pips 1000 pips on an upward trend and then lasted in that range anywhere from 2 and a 1/2 days to 9 days. My Prediction: So at this point I ended up setting my stop limit settings To sell me back 80% of the investment in each stock after reaches roughly 950 pips above my entry point. I'm leaving the other 20% in there because I'm guessing that it's goingna go up 950 at least but if it continues rising after that I still want to have some steak in it. It's not that I'm going to lose that 20% because even if it drops down I've actually set a stop limit order or a stop loss quarter so that dips down to beyond a certain point it's just gonna sell it all back to me anyway and the only thing I'll lose is about .70% on the trade fee. This all took place 11:30 PM 2 nights ago so the next morning around 7 Ami woke up and I looked at my charts that I was vested in and realized that almost to the hour I predicted it correctly I was off by about 45 minutes I thought it was gonna happen at 3:30 AM it actually happened above 4:17 AM the reversal was solid and it continued to climb and it continued to climb I saw it 3 hours later. I'm guessing that this trend will take the next 2 days to complete this 1000 pip move so this is a very long move. What I'll do next: Like I said my stop limit order is going to sell me back 80% of the gains on everything that I vested it and leave 20% inside of These markets. I have a feeling that they'll continue climbing after that 1000 pit move but I'm not sure how far. So what I'll do next is use the equity of that 20% and use it for scalping on the way up and on the way down. The only way that I'll know whether it's going to continue on that trend above the moving averages is I'm going to watch the 21 moving average and see if it starts getting close again to the 50. But within that time frame all need to be lined up the 21 on top 50 in the center the 100 below that and a 200 below that however if any one of them show signs of movement where the 21 will cross the 50 I'll wait till it gets to the 100 And look for myself position. All in all this will create initially a very long by position that will last at least 3 or 4 days to complete the 1st 80% and then a short buy position or a shorter term by position position that I'll have to watch closely. If you have any questions about what is going to happen next.... feel free to ask below.
Long
by CoffeeshopCrypto
ETH back in zone above .382 FIb retracement level from May 21Ethereum has recovered back above the .382 Fib retracement level originally drawn from the MAY 2021 crash. This has proven to be an important level in the past, and most likely will trade sideways in between the .382 and the .5 (Dows theory) level as it did in SEPT. 2021, assuming it is able to hold above $2821. Assuming that it does, I see a retracement track towards the all important .618! *Personally this marks a trend reversal, as we have now made consecutive lower highs and higher lows as we reverse from the local downtrend. OF COURSE this is all dependent upon the Macro (BITCOIN) and its trend. If BITCOIN can hold the level above $40k this is VERY positive for ETH and its future in the near term. 1st Target: $3125 2nd Target: $3428 3rd Target: $3500+++ This is just MY OPINION, but is based in TA. If you agree please LIKE THIS POST, and FOLLOW for future ideas and Technical Analysis. THANK YOU FOR VIEWING :-)
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by CLTullmann
1
Predicting and Confirming Real Market Crashes on the S&P 500The holy grail of stock investing , IMO, is predicting and or even confirming a market crash, a trend change from bullish to bearish that's going to last for an extended period of time. I'm defining a 'market crash' as a trend change from bullish to bearish or bearish to bullish. How do we know when a pullback or correction is just that and when it's the start of a long term bear market? I'm old enough to vividly remember and having been impacted financially by the crashes and bear markets of approximately 2000 and 2008. So I became obsessed with creating an indicator that could weed out pullbacks, fake outs, and minor corrections and confirm a real bear market. Here's my best effort after years of work. The arrows on the chart would have appeared when the candle they are above closed. I'm using a 91D candle for starters. This gives the best results. And several other proprietary methods under the hood of my indicator. However, you can see that it over the last 40 years, only indicated two bear markets....and both correctly. For the S&P 500 to confirm another bear market, major trend reversal, it will need to drop under the red dotted line for an extended period of time...then you'll know it's likely headed further down. Curious what other think and how you determine if the stock market is at the beginning of a real trend change.
SP:SPX
by TrendGuruX
5
BTG - Trend-Following Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. BTG is overall bullish and now approaching the lower blue trendline so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: BTG is forming a trendline in red but it is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, BTG would be overall bearish can still trade lower. And for the bears to take over, we need to see a break below the 50.0 Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BLong
by TheSignalyst
13
USDCAD - Trend-Following Sell Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. USDCAD is sitting around a daily resistance in blue so we will be looking for sell setups. on H4: USDCAD is forming a channel in red but the lower trendline is not valid yet. So we will be waiting for a third swing to form around it to consider it our trigger swing (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that third swing (gray zone) to form then sell on its break downward. Until the sell is activated, USDCAD would be overall bullish and can still trade higher. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
4
XRP - Potential Bullish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. XRP is approaching a support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: XRP is forming a channel in red but the upper trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, XRP would be overall bearish can still trade lower inside the support or even break it downward. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
44
IOTA - Trend-Following Buy Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. IOTA is overall bullish so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: IOTA is forming a trendline in red but it is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, IOTA would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
11
ADAUSD Begins the Bullish TrendImportant things to note: I bet that last retracement had you sweating LOL Fortunately everything looks fine. If you are looking at BTC the price will retrace above the new higher low we had as to not create a H&S. ADA is just retracing. I expect an upward push to price target. Price target is marked on chart in green. The major resistance is in yellow. The reversal will start slow and gain momentum with every resistance level passed. Important dates: I will update this soon when I post about the summit. So I bet you were looking at the retracement thinking we were doomed? Well, not so fast. This is all going according to plan so far. We got a bit of retracement and the price will push up to the price target I marked in green. The main resistance is still in yellow but I will update once the first one is passed. There are a lot of shorts out there, they will have to start covering creating more upward pressure. Pretty soon, the shorts will get hunted. This is why it is best not to listen to the news. The way it works is, you listen to the news, you make an emotional trade, the whales collect. That is the simplest way to explain it. LOL. I expect the price to continue upwards. You will see a lot of bullish posts in the near future from everyone. That's for sure. There isn't too much to update you all with other than to say its looking fine and the price will push upwards. It is just slow because of the reversal, similar to how the high prices slow down before a fall. This is the same thing, but in reverse. The market has a long way to go to turn around. The best thing to keep your eye on is the low at 1.91. If the price crosses that target, I will worry. There are a lot of tests that need to be completed while the bullish momentum picks up. So far, things are looking great! Thanks again for all the support! I will continue to watch ADA and update you accordingly! Stay relaxed, there is nothing to worry about at the moment. I am going to make a video soon teaching everyone my approach to charting. I will cover the entire workflow process I go through. I hope you enjoy it. Tell me what you think? This is not financial advice. DYODD.
KRAKEN:ADAUSDLong
by mysticalwalrus
40
BTC | Potential reversal ongoing, needs confirmationCurrent trend is : CHOP - Bearish in reversal . That means if you want to play safe with the trend , this is a no trade zone. Further analysis: S1 has been broken, showing bull pressure and trend weakening S2 zone remains the bulls objective to confirm a reversal. Until we did not break S2, we cannot confirm a reversal. S3 zone is the target for bears: break this and the bear trend is confirmed. Personal opinion: S1 broken is a win for bulls. I think S2 gets broken before S3 and we see a bull trend reforming. If that is the case, i will be longing the retest of the S2 zone.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Greenou
Bitcoin update. More bullish perspective.Bitcoin came down! Now that it looks more like it will reach new lows (than yesterday) I want to share a bullish perspective. This is what I have been calling the 'coconut long'. It's where you get a horizontal value area, followed by a spike low, followed by a horizontal value higher than the previous hva. Price has a tendency to dip down closer to the spike low before heading upward for an extended bullish run. The objective is to buy what the other guys are selling. This is a well documented reversal formation. I did not invent it, but to the uneducated I will take credit. The advantage of this formation is that it's a very early predicter of trend changes allowing you to capture long runs early on. The Achilles heal is that it requires you to be a bottom picker. Because trends are more likely to continue than reverse, this is a risky strategy. The thing to consider is what happens if the reversal formation doesn't come true? For the reversal formation to be broken price needs to make a new low. Never tell a market it can't go any higher, and never tell a market it can't go any lower. It could very easily continue to create new lows. Trends are what they are until they aren't. Never before. Again, I am painting two very opposing pictures here. For one to come true, the other must be proven false. That's how it works. Other areas of life are much less binary, but this is the brutal nature of trading, and the sooner you can adjust to it the better off you'll be. It's something I'm still figuring out myself, but I can tell you if you aren't prepared to play for keeps then you aren't prepared enough.
by emehoke
6
NZDJPY - Purple War Zones!NZDJPY rejected the upper purple war zone and traded lower. However, NZDJPY is still overall bullish trading inside the blue channel, so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy Setups. As per my trading style/plan; Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability buy setups: I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Purple circles) Zone 1: (around 77.90) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline. If NZDJPY breaks the green support (Zone 1) downward, then the next support would be the red one. (Zone 2) Zone 2: (around 76.70) This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the red support and lower brown trendline. As per my trading style: As NZDJPY approaches one of the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal bullish setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
45