Nzdjpy might have more pull back with rejection here...
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Trend-trading
AUD/JPY Short IdeaMy Thoughts on AUD/JPY Price is Due Large Weekly Bearish Phase I will be looking to Take an Opportunity if I get a Momentum Shift and Break of Trend on the 30m chart. I am a Daytrader, so I will be looking to take Sells on all my JPY pairs for the foreseeable future. I dont recommend trying to Swing Trade this Reversal as the markets can usually behave erratically around Major Reversal Zones.
I want to wish Everybody a Happy New Year. Blessings and Positivity for this Upcoming Trading Year, it's setting up to be a great one.
EDUCATION: Engulfing Candlestick PatternHello, dear subscribers!
The topic of this article is the Engulfing candlestick pattern. To be honest the candlestick patterns are almost useless if you use only this. But this is a great trend confirmation, so we will consider engulfing pattern with the Alligator Indicator which was described in one of the previous articles.
What is Engulfing Pattern?
The Engulfing Pattern can be bullish and bearish. The bullish one is the situation when the red candle is engulfed by the next green candle. It is not important if the candleweak was engulfed too or not. This is a subject for thought. Also it does not mean if the only one green candle or two consecutive candles absorbed the previous red candle.
The bearish Engulfing candlestick formation is exactly the opposite situation.
The Strategy
You can search by yourself the ehgulfing patterns on the chart and notice that it generate a lot of fake signals, it means that we should use the indicator for the trend definition. In our example we use the Alligator indicator to do it. As you already know the Alligator has two phases - the sleeping and feeding time. If the sleeping time is over the jaw, teeth and lips of the Alligator become wider. At this point we should find the Engulfing formation to confirm the new trend. You should enter a long position at the point which you can see on the chart.
DowntrendYou can make money from an uptrend or a downtrend in trading.
Downtrends tend to move faster than uptrends, which is why you will find some traders who opt to only short sell assets in order to capitalize on the quick price action.
Many kinds of research show that financial instruments can trend more than 30% of the time. The rest of the time, the active moves sideways.
Do you want to know how to identify and trade a downtrend?
In this post, we discuss what a downtrend is, how to spot and trade them.
What Is a Downtrend?
A downtrend is moving of price action in an asset lower over some time and is most recognizable by prices creating lower lows and lower highs.
What you need to know is that a downtrend is composed of two types of price waves. They include:
-Impulse
-Correction
For example, if the asset price was 0.0024, then drops to 0.0014, then rallies to 0.0020 and again falls to 0.012. These price movements will create a price wave. What you need to know is that Impulse price waves are larger (0.0024 to 0.0014), while corrective waves are much smaller 0.0014 to 0.0020.
Trends form when the asset price makes progress. It can either be in one direction or another. If the impulse wave moves down, followed by a corrective wave up, it means that the asset price has made a downside move.
The downtrend will continue as long as the impulse waves down and corrective waves up in trading.
Key Characteristics of a Downtrend
Several things characterize a downtrend which is easily recognized in charts as you can see below:
Lower Peaks and Troughs
Lower peaks and troughs characterize downtrends with lower lows and lower highs taking place as you can see in the chart above.
It’s also important to note that trends can form in different time frames. You can have intraday trends as well as macro trends on the daily and weekly charts.
News Catalysts
News catalysts is another characteristic that can push asset into a downtrend.
Increase in Market Participants
When the asset price goes downs, the number of sellers increases, which means supply exceeds demand. The increase in market participants who are now convinced that the declining asset price is temporary will begin to rise. As such, the number of customers buying the assets increases while the number of sellers decreases.
How to Trade a Downtrend
A downtrend occurs across all assets and time frames. Traders can trade them over longer-term time frames such as daily, weekly, and monthly or short-term charts like a tick and one-minute charts. What you ought to know is that the same trend trading concepts apply whether the trader is looking at a daily, weekly, or monthly chart.
Tools
You can detect a downtrend using technical and fundamental analysis using volume and volatility as well.
Use trend lines during trend analysis. By creating a trend line over an asset chart’s high pivot points or under pivot low points. This is a great visual indicator of resistance and support. It also offers a clue to the direction of the price change and speed.
Short sellers profit from downtrends by borrowing then selling the assets immediately with an agreement to buy them in the coming future. Also known as short selling, traders benefit from the difference between the lower future price and current sale price.
If you are planning on short selling, do so during the corrective wave. Using Fibonacci retracement levels will isolate sections where correction stops and reverses. You can also wait for the correction to stop rallying.
By doing so, you allow the price to move sideways, and when it starts to drop, make a short trade. lace a stop loss on every trade to manage risk. Remember, to exit a short trade with a profit the prices need to be lower than what you sold them for.
Trading Tips
Look for prices to reach previous highs but are not able to breakthrough. This is a good indication that buyers are no longer seeing value in the asset and we could be setting up for a move lower.
Use previous highs as a stop location.
Look for a break in previous lows to confirm the downtrend.
Profits should be taken as prices flush below previous lows and stops should be adjusted to the last previous high.
Final Thoughts
There are a couple of mistakes you should avoid.
Firstly, never fight the overall trend on the higher time frames. If you do so, you may find yourself in a downtrend with no reason to buy. Secondly, never trade too much. Trends are temporary. Even if they are strong or have a potential for making profits, never risk too much on any one trade.
This is true, especially if you have a small account or just starting. Don’t be greedy. What we recommend is to start small and scale-up. Starting with a small deposit, you gain crucial knowledge and experience. As such, you will be confident about increasing your trading sizes.
Lastly, take some time to learn. To be successful in trading, you need to keep learning. Stay on your toes at all times. By keeping abreast of what is happening in the market. Commit yourself to learn and surrounding yourself with more experienced traders to do that.
If this post has 300 likes, I will make a post about the uptrend
Best regards EXCAVO
PPT / BTC Perhaps a new uptrend. Past profit + 100% 30% 80%I started trading this instrument on September 13, 2019. Medium liquid instrument. Since September, I took all the main movements + 100%, + 30%, 80% (I took 60-70% of 100% of each movement). All trading ideas and the algorithm of work are on this site.
As a trading tool has a small liquidity, it is impossible to work with a large amount, up to a maximum of 5-10 thousand dollars. In order not to load orders on the exchange and thereby prevent price increases, you can use several exchanges to trade.
The tool is only for speculation, very profitable by the way. But this is my pure opinion, as I wrote more than once, I am very negative about cryptocurrencies.
At the moment, PPT / BTC, after a local small sideways after the dump, a slight upward movement has begun. Perhaps we are at the beginning of the emergence of another local uptrend.
If all the same, the uptrend will not develop (some kind of terrible tale will hit the market in general), then with a high degree of probability the price can be stopped in the "green zone" which has been used for almost a year as the launch pad of local pumps. Lateral movement will begin. If the price breaks through this zone, then wait for a new acceptable entry point.
Past Trading Ideas for this PPT / BTC Coin
PPT Symmetrical Triangle. The first goal is 33%. Merged into 164 X! Sep 24, 2019
1 target taken + 66%
Symmetrical triangle
2 target taken, exactly + 38%. In total, more than + 100%
PPT formed a symmetrical triangle. Target + 100% Nov 6, 2019
+ 37% 1 take taken. Squeeze (shadow)
PPT / BTC Falling Wedge. Reversal zones. Work on a coin. Jan 14 2020
Target taken + 85%
There should be a strategy and plan. At the same time, your strategy and plan should be plastic from market situations.
GBPUSD | CONTINUES TO MOVE UPWARDS! (UP)PLEASE SUPPORT THE IDEA BY SMASHING LIKE AND GIVING A COMMENT!
Hello Forex Trading Lions,
Today we are trading GBPUSD, its on a nice uptrend as well as the moving averages are shooting to the upside, it also has recently broken a important level of sensitivity.
Pyramiding online on a coin for pumping. Matic. Smart trading. Money Management Method - Pyramiding in action online on a pump coin. Matic / btc.
Big profits are minimal risk.
Stop Loss showed where to place and by what principle they move because all the zombies want to see them.
Stop Loss takes place when you are not in control of a position for a long time. But you must clearly understand where you should go when the price goes against you, and no retention of a losing position, in case, "what if the price comes back."
Always adhere to your strategy and plan, but at the same time, be flexible and have all the scenarios in advance. Be smarter for other market participants.
Matic / btc pyramiding in profit figures now:
1 entry point for $ 1000 + 177% $ 2700 (net $ 1700).
2 entry point for $ 1000 + 135% $ 2350 (net $ 1350).
3 entry point for $ 1000 + 90% $ 1900 (net $ 900).
4 entry point for $ 1000 + 35% $ 1350 (net $ 350).
The total profit at the moment from 4 entry points with a minimum risk of $ 4000 becomes $ 8350 (net $ 4300).
There is one thing, but the profit is much larger, as the trade was conducted in the accumulation channel with a price step of + 77%. Trading was carried out by 30% of the accumulated position, increasing it with complex%.
Trading in the channel will allow you to advance to a specific profit before the channel breakthrough . It will also help minimize its risks in case the uptrend support of the accumulation channel is broken down . As you would already be in profit from trading in the channel in 77% increments, at least cover Stop Loss loss. It is clear that the movement of 77% of the channel will not come out each time, like the entrance and exit when confirming the price reversal from support / resistance. But 30-40% can be obtained, but not always. This also needs to be understood.
Also no need to be afraid to buy at prices at a higher price. Sometimes buying at slightly higher prices is much safer than buying at the bottom, which may not be the bottom. The most important thing is the correct entry and exit point.
The entry point should be with a potential big profit and minimal risk.
What else does trading in the accumulation channel give you? You need to understand what could have been so (it is unlikely, but this should not be ruled out) that the price channel would have broken down and fixed under it. If you were “Waiting” like everyone else, it would mean a losing trade. And a loss in the amount of your Stop Loss according to your strategy. And if you have a big position, but not a lot of liquidity in a coin? As a rule, such coins are so, then there are situations when a breakthrough of support creates a panic-drain in the market, which goes to a large percentage of the price movement. Here, in this case, the extra earned profit up to the input amount helps.
Another addition in such coins in most cases is not possible to become short, therefore trading in two directions will not work. This must be understood in advance and taken into account in your trading strategy!
It is also important that someone thinks that he would just enter the breakout zone of the downtrend and take the same + 100% without these games and complexity. This is so if you have a small input, let's say $ 500-1,000 is not a problem, but if the amount is larger, this will cause difficulties to enter not noticeably and not provoke a premature price increase. You need to understand that at important pivot points you are not the only ones who want to enter the market, and in some coins the liquidity is low. And an entry instead of a step of + 2-3% can provoke a price increase of 10%. You can just trigger a panic buy.
Another option, for example, you bought 50% of the coins for the planned amount. Further you see that a further purchase will provoke an increase in the price by an unacceptable%. You can use your purchase to keep the price from rising and force other market participants to sell you and thereby gain the remaining 50% of the planned position. This works if you know how to work with a glass and a ribbon of sales and purchases, well hiding the actions made in advance. After all, you need to understand that not only hamsters are on the market, and there are traders who not only look at charts, and therefore are more informative in what is actually happening.
But all this only works in ordinary situations. At important points in the price reversal, your walls will be eaten up, you will give someone a gift allowing them to buy a large position without slipping the price. Just ask yourself a question, and you wouldn’t do it if someone gave you such a gift?
It is easier to work on TOP coins with this management method due to the greater liquidity and greater predictability of the price movement, but the profit there is many times smaller and more time-stretched.
Time is money. The liquidity of TOP coins allows you to work in large amounts, and there will always be enough liquidity for a short Stop Loss, which can not be said about pump coins. It is worth mentioning that you can work short on top coins if the price goes against you, therefore there is less risk due to greater plasticity for the trading instrument. But once again I’ll remind you the profit is much less, a long extended time interval and a small selection of trading tools.
I showed in more detail about this method of money management on TOP coins using the example of LTC / USD in these trading ideas:
EDUCATION Pyramiding How to earn 52000 with a risk of 5% from 10000 1part
EDUCATION Pyramiding money management. 2 part. Short LTC/USD
The trading idea for this coin for 13 11 2019 is before pumping and leaving the accumulation zone.
MATIC at the breakout zone of the downtrend Great growth potent
GBUSD bullish trend continuation trade as price recently signaled a potential shift to the trend after forming a DT on the daily , it seems it reverse trend on the H4
price formed a new high above the 50 ema then the pull back and entry came at the last candle
check out my blog for detailed view on this strategy
mborriello.blogspot.com
or you can watch my video if you wish to see it in action
www.youtube.com
BTC to consolidate and then pump above 10kHi everyone,
This is my prediction as to what is due to happen: We will see potentially some horizontal consolidation with fairly low volatility.
The buyers at $8848 will support the price if it gets down there.
My stop will be at $8816
That gives me $376 risk per btc of leverage
I want to take around $1000 of risk so I will trade 3btc.
I expect the price to move around about $1200
Long Signal (Cautionary) Just Fired on AUDUSD Target is 0.69880Our Logical Trading Systems (Smart Volume Spread Analysis) signals a Cautionary Long Shakeout (Strength) Signal on AUDUSD Hourly
After a fairly long move down it looks like some *cautionary* strength is coming into the Aussie Dollar pair.
The target is the SML (0.69880) just above entry (0.69762)
While I would rather see valid strength than cautionary it does look like things may be slowing down at least for a short while. I will update as changes occur. Please note this is the hourly chart as such targets tend to be quicker. Our systems work on any timeframe or chart in much the same way on longer time frames as it does on shorter time frames.
The systems we use to trade are detailed below and all of them are available on Trading View if you are interested:
Our "Logical Volume Spread Analysis" is a vast improvement on ‘standard’ volume spread analysis. Based on 15+ year combined experience with Smart Volume Spread Analysis software which combines fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and volume price analysis into a powerful methodology that enables you to trade the markets in a way that is uniquely accurate. We have refined the analysis systems and algorithms from our core systems to provide the most powerful Volume Spread Analysis indicator on TradingView.
Our "Logical Trade Levels" (Targets and Stall Points) indicator is a simple but powerful version of support and resistance. We do a fair bit of behind the scenes algorithmic magic but essentially these levels act as very strong support and resistance for entries and also targets. Many of our previously published ideas use these levels to determine likely stall points for our entries as well as best targets up and down. You can see from those published levels how easily you know where the price will likely stall out or needs to move through.
The *Volume Trend Advisor* (The red and green indications on the chart) indicates in real-time and cannot repaint as it uses closed price and volume analysis to determine likely changes in direction/trend. The Green icon = Strength/Long and the Red icon = Weakness/Short.
BCH trading plan continues - Waiting for the indicator signalsHi Traders,
Continuing our BCASH trade from a few posts ago. We exited at the red lines,as the indicator overextension signal and stop loss told us. With some nice profit of 45% from the exit off the overextension signal, and 40% at the trailing stop level. This gives some nice room for the next trade on BCH.
We discovered bearish divergence as price moves up (1) and momentum slightly downwards, but definitely not up (2). This divergence really only becomes apparent at (3) when price break through the stop loss and see that the previous high was divergent. This does not help us getting out, but that’s ok, we have other metrics for that. It does however tell us that on this chart, the trend may have ended, and that the following long setup probably won’t get triggered. What we do is keep the breakout level of the setup at the highest level that it plots (and don’t move it down as the indicator plots a lower trend breakout level).This is so you ensure not getting faked into the trade and the trend fails to develop.
The divergence also tells us that the the bearish setup will have momentum on its side. We look to enter short, but we need to get a setup, and an entry trigger from the indicator!
Daily
The daily hasn’t signalled a long setup yet, which I expected the indicator to do.. it will probably come in the next few candles though.
So we have a similar game plan we have with XRP: we took the 4HR trend into a daily trend setup. We now wait for either a daily long setup and that setup to be triggered. Or we get a 4HR short setup which gets triggered. Either way the market moves, we’re in it, ready to profit.. And to be honest, I could not care less which way it moves :)
If you want to try our indicator out, follow us and drop a comment and we’ll get you set up.
Like and subscribe if you enjoy our work!
Stay calm, and happy trading!