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The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals!🎭 The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals! 📊🚀 📢 Ever entered a trade thinking you caught the perfect trend , only to get stopped out as the market reversed? You're not alone. The market has a way of fooling traders—but if you understand its “two-faced” nature, you can stay one step ahead. 🔥 Why Trends Reverse (and How to Catch It Early!) Most traders believe trends reverse due to "news" or "randomness." But in reality, the market gives signals long before the turn happens. Here’s what to watch for: 🔹 Momentum Divergence: The price makes a new high, but indicators like RSI/MACD don’t. 🔹 Volume Anomaly: The trend continues, but volume dries up—a sign of weakness. 🔹 Failed Breakouts: Price breaks a key level, only to fall back inside—trapping traders. 🔹 Candlestick Clues: Reversal patterns like engulfing candles or wicks rejecting key levels appear. 🚀 Mastering these signals can put you ahead of 90% of traders. 📊 Real Example: XAU/ USD Trend Reversal in Action 🔎 Breakdown of the setup: ✅ Step 1: Identify a trend (through market structure, trendline or moving average). ✅ Step 2: Look for failed breakouts against the trend ✅ Step 3: Look for trend-following setups 🎯 The Market’s Game: Recognizing The Shift Trends don’t die suddenly—they fade before reversing. The best traders spot the early signs and position before the crowd. 💡 Have you spotted these reversal signs before? Drop a comment with your experience! 👇🔥 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
3
Donchian Channel Strategy like The Turtles TradersThe Turtle Traders strategy is a legendary trend-following system developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to prove that trading could be taught systematically to novices. Dennis, a successful commodities trader, bet Eckhardt that he could train a group of beginners—nicknamed "Turtles"—to trade profitably using strict rules. The experiment worked, with the Turtles reportedly earning over $100 million collectively. Here’s a detailed breakdown of their strategy, focusing on the core components as documented in public sources like Curtis Faith’s Way of the Turtle and other accounts from the era. Core Philosophy Trend Following: The Turtles aimed to capture large price trends in any direction (up or down) across diverse markets—commodities, currencies, bonds, and later stocks. Systematic Rules: Every decision—entry, exit, position size—was predefined. No discretion allowed. Volatility-Based: Risk and position sizing adjusted to each market’s volatility, not fixed dollar amounts. Long-Term Focus: They targeted multi-month trends, ignoring short-term noise. Two Trading Systems The Turtles used two complementary breakout systems—System 1 (shorter-term) and System 2 (longer-term). They’d trade both simultaneously across a portfolio of markets. System 1: Shorter-Term Breakout Entry: Buy when the price breaks above the 20-day high (highest high of the past 20 days). Sell short when the price breaks below the 20-day low. Skip the trade if the prior breakout (within 20 days) was profitable—avoid whipsaws after a winning move. Initial Stop Loss: Exit longs if the price drops 2N below entry (N = 20-day Average True Range, a volatility measure). Exit shorts if the price rises 2N above entry. Example: Entry at $100, N = $2, stop at $96 for a long. Trailing Stop: Exit longs if the price breaks below the 10-day low. Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 10-day high. Time Frame: Aimed for trends lasting weeks to a couple of months. System 2: Longer-Term Breakout Entry: Buy when the price breaks above the 55-day high. Sell short when the price breaks below the 55-day low. No skip rule—take every breakout, even after a winner. Initial Stop Loss: Same as System 1: 2N below entry for longs, 2N above for shorts. Trailing Stop: Exit longs if the price breaks below the 20-day low. Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 20-day high. Time Frame: Targeted trends lasting several months (e.g., 6-12 months). Position Sizing Volatility (N): N, or “noise,” was the 20-day Average True Range (ATR)—the average daily price movement. It normalized risk across markets. Unit Size: Risk 1% of account equity per trade, adjusted by N. Formula: Units = (1% of Account) / (N × Dollar Value per Point). Example: $1M account, 1% = $10,000. Corn N = 0.5 cents, $50 per point. Units = $10,000 / (0.5 × $50) = 400 contracts. Scaling In: Add positions as the trend confirms: Long: Add 1 unit every ½N above entry (e.g., entry $100, N = $2, add at $101, $102, etc.). Short: Add every ½N below entry. Max 4 units per breakout, 12 units total per market across systems. Risk Management Portfolio Limits: Max 4 units in a single market (e.g., corn). Max 10 units in closely correlated markets (e.g., grains). Max 12 units in one direction (long or short) across all markets. Stop Loss: The 2N stop capped risk per unit. If N widened after entry, the stop stayed fixed unless manually adjusted (rare). Drawdown Rule: If account dropped 10%, cut position sizes by 20% until recovery. Markets Traded Commodities: Corn, soybeans, wheat, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gas. Currencies: Swiss franc, Deutschmark, British pound, yen. Bonds: U.S. Treasury bonds, 90-day T-bills. Metals: Gold, silver, copper. Diversification across 20-30 markets ensured uncorrelated trends.
NASDAQ:IBKREducation
by j7892
XAUUSD long term 1. Weakness at Support Zone (Bearish Risk) The price is hovering around the identified demand zone (blue box), but buyers are not showing strong defense yet. If this zone breaks, we could see a deeper correction toward $2,840 - $2,800, invalidating the bullish projection. The dotted red line suggesting an immediate bounce might be premature without a bullish confirmation candle or volume spike. 2. Trendline Breach (Bearish Confirmation) The ascending trendline (starting from February lows) has already been broken and retested. This typically signals a trend reversal or deeper pullback. If price remains below this trendline, the bullish continuation becomes less probable. 3. Possible Bear Flag Formation (Bearish Pattern) The recent sideways action (consolidation within the demand zone) could be forming a bear flag, which is a continuation pattern for a move down. A breakdown below $2,860 (flag bottom) would confirm this bearish pattern, targeting potentially $2,800 or lower. 4. Momentum Shift RSI/MACD (if checked) may show bearish divergence from recent highs or weakening momentum, suggesting buyers are losing control. Alternative Bearish Scenario (Disruption Path): If price breaks and closes below $2,860 - $2,840: Short-term target: $2,800 - $2,760. Invalidates bullish target of $3,000 for now
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
Hedge against the Bears by buying Agnic Eagle Mines LimitedWatch the video, I basically used technical analysis of MA, RSI and TTM Squuze to determine that the direction is bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Then coupled that with a 1.66 R:R ratio according to Gabriel's Kelly-based Risk to Reward Ratio. You can use levearge here such as option since the Implied Volatility is still around the 30% level, for futures you could use 2x etf if there is one I haven't check. Seasonality supports AEM until May 8 so there is a wind to fall back out if it falls with a bullish engulfing candle this Monday.
NYSE:AEMLong
by OneWallStreetQuant
LINK - Strong like a Castle!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 Long-term, LINK has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge marked in blue. 🔻 Currently, it is in a correction phase, trading within the falling red channel. 📍 As it retests the lower bound of both the red and blue trendlines—perfectly intersecting with the green support—I will be looking for short-term longs. 🚀 For the bulls to take over long-term and initiate the next bullish phase, a breakout above the falling red channel is needed. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
EURJPY - Follow the Bears!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉EURJPY has been overall bearish trading within the falling wedge pattern marked in red. Since it is retesting the upper bound of the wedge, I will be looking for trend-following sell setups on lower timeframes. For now, we wait!⏱️ 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
2
USDJPY STRONG FALLING OPPORTUNITY 1. 144.00 Support May Hold Strong The analysis assumes 144.00 will break, but this is a key psychological and historical support level. If buyers step in, USD/JPY could reverse back up instead of continuing downward. 2. Rebound Towards 150.00 Possible Instead of a lower low, USD/JPY could bounce off intermediate demand zones and attempt a retest of resistance at 150.00. US economic strength (inflation, interest rates) could support the dollar and invalidate the downtrend. 3. Lower Highs are Not Confirmed Yet If the price stays above 146.50, the trend could shift back bullish, disrupting the bearish projection. Lack of strong selling pressure near 147.00-146.00 could mean the market is undecided rather than fully bearish 4. Macroeconomic Factors Favor USD Strength If Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains dovish and the Fed keeps rates high, USD/JPY might resume its uptrend instead of falling
Long
by mrsamfx81
3
ETHUSD SURELY BULLISH 1. Support at 2130 May Fail The chart assumes a bounce from 2130 support, but if ETH breaks below this level, it could trigger further liquidations and push price toward 2000 or lower. Bearish divergence or weakening buy volume could signal a lack of strength. 2. Resistance at 2800 May Hold Strong The projection suggests ETH will reach 2800, but this could be a strong supply zone where sellers step in. If ETH struggles around 2400-2500, we might see a reversal instead of a breakout. 3. Lower High Formation If ETH fails to break above previous highs (~2265+), it could signal a lower high, leading to a downtrend continuation rather than a rally. Rejection near 2300-2400 might confirm a bearish structure. 4. Macroeconomic & Market Risks If Bitcoin corrects or macro factors (rate hikes, regulatory news, or stock market weakness) pressure crypto markets, ETH might struggle to sustain upside momentum
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
XAUUSD strong bullish 1. (Xauusd)Support at 2900 May Not Hold The chart suggests a bounce from the 2900 support area, but if market sentiment weakens, we could see a breakdown below 2900 instead of a recovery. If this happens, gold might dip further toward 2850 or even 2800 before regaining strength. 2. Trendline Breakdown is Possible There's an upward trendline acting as dynamic support, but multiple touches increase the chance of a breakdown rather than a continuation. A confirmed break below this trendline could lead to bearish momentum rather than a push higher. 3. Resistance May Be Stronger Than Expected The analysis suggests a move toward 2960-3000, but these levels could act as a strong resistance instead of a breakout zone. Failure to break 2960 might trigger another sell-off back toward 2900 or lower. 4. Macroeconomic Factors Could Shift Bias If the US Dollar strengthens or bond yields rise, gold could struggle to gain momentum, invalidating the bullish outlook
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
1
Btcusd analysis 1. Support May Hold – The chart suggests a drop to the support area (around $75K-$77K), but strong demand in that region could lead to a rebound instead of a further decline. 2. Higher Low Formation – If BTC stays above $80K and forms a higher low, the bearish breakdown may be invalidated, leading to another push toward resistance ($95K). 3. Liquidity Grab Above Resistance – The market might break above the resistance zone instead of rejecting it. A breakout beyond $95K could trigger a bullish rally toward $100K+. 4. Market Sentiment & Fundamentals – If BTC fundamentals remain strong (ETF inflows, institutional buying, positive macro factors), short-term technical patterns might be overridden by larger buying pressure
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
Chainlink - Preparing for trend reversalBINANCE:LINKUSDT (1D CHART) Technical Analysis Update LINK is currently trading at $16.39 and currently we are seeing trend reversal and heading towards breakout from the bearish trend, if the price continues the bullish momentum we expect a clear breakout and bullish start of the bullish trend. Entry level: $ Enter after breakout 18 Stop Loss Level: $14 TakeProfit 1: $ 20 TakeProfit 2: $ 22 TakeProfit 3: $ 26 TakeProfit 4: $ 30 TakeProfit 5: $ 35 Max Leverage: 2x Position Size: 1% of capital Remember to set your stop loss. Follow our TradingView account for more technical analysis updates. | Like, share, and comment your thoughts. Cheers GreenCrypto
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
2
ADA is on the move!After Trump tweeted about a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA, the crypto market went wild. And the best performer from the list? You guessed it—ADA. ADA has surged over 80%. What’s next? - A retest of the $0.84 structure could offer trend-following long opportunities. - A breakout above the $1.17 range would signal a long-term bullish takeover. Is ADA gearing up for another explosive move? Stay ahead of the game—follow us for real-time market insights, expert analysis, and the latest crypto trends! 🚀 Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by altcryptotalk
4
EURAUD - Areas of Interest!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈EURAUD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in green, however it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, the red zone is a strong resistance zone. 📉 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the resistance and upper blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 📈 Moreover, as it retests the lower bound of the channel and blue support, I will be looking for longs. For now, we wait!⏱️ 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
by TheSignalyst
2
EURCAD - Nearing A Massive Resistance!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per our last EURCAD analysis, it rejected our blue support zone and traded higher. What's next? 📈EURCAD has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel, however it is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel. Moreover, the red zone is a strong resistance zone. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the resistance and upper blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURCAD approaches the red circle, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
12
XAUUSD on Drop As Market is on bearish cycle after break of 2880 structural support & gives closing of weekly below the previous week candle. What scanario we have? ▪️  if H4 candle remains below the structure support at 2880 then Market will reamin on selling side towards 2850 and 2842 in extension. ▪️on the other hand, at moment all concerns about closing of H4 candles at 2880.if 2880 suffer and invalidated and closes above 2881-83 this chart will be invalid and wait the correction to buy.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forexmaestro121
ETHUSD WEEKLY CHARTS (ETHUSD)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis 1. Potential Breakout Above 2835 Resistance The current analysis assumes Ethereum will reject from the 2835 resistance and drop back to 2146. However, given the strong upward momentum (+13.46%), ETH could break above 2835 instead of reversing. A daily close above 2835 could trigger a rally toward 3000+. 2. Support Holding at Higher Levels Instead of expecting a drop to 2146, ETH may form a higher low around 2400 – 2500, which would confirm bullish continuation. If it retests 2500 and holds, it could bounce back up toward the resistance and push higher. 3. Volume & Momentum Confirmation The sharp breakout suggests strong buying pressure. If volume remains high, ETH could invalidate the resistance level and start a new uptrend. 4. Market Sentiment & Macro Factors If Bitcoin remains bullish, Ethereum will likely follow suit, pushing above resistance levels. The broader crypto market’s strength could support a continuation rather than a rejection. Conclusion Instead of expecting a double-top rejection at 2835, traders should watch for a potential breakout. If ETH stabilizes above 2500, it could lead to a move toward 3000, rather than a drop to 2146
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Fx_Oliviaa
1
Btcusd weekly chart (btcusd)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis 1. Potential Continuation Above Resistance (95,300) The current analysis assumes rejection at 95,300 and a drop toward 78,118. However, a strong breakout above 95,300 could trigger a rally toward 100,000 or higher. If Bitcoin consolidates above 95,300, it may act as a new support, rather than a rejection zone. 2. Volume Confirmation on the Breakout The price surged significantly (+9.09%), suggesting strong bullish momentum. Instead of expecting an immediate rejection, watch for high volume confirming a potential continuation upward. 3. Higher Low Formation Instead of a Drop The chart expects a fall back to 78,118, but the price may form a higher low around 85,000 – 88,000 before resuming the uptrend. A retracement to this range (not all the way down to 78,118) would still be healthy in a bull market. 4. Market Sentiment Shift The sharp upward movement suggests buying pressure rather than an exhaustion move. If 95,300 is tested again and breaks, it could lead to a parabolic move instead of a reversal
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Fx_Oliviaa
GBPJPY weekly analysis (Gbpjpy)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis 1. Breakout Above Resistance at 190.070 The chart suggests rejection from 190.070, but if price breaks and holds above this level, it could signal further upside momentum. Instead of a bearish move, price could consolidate above 190.165 and push toward 191.003 or higher. 2. Strong Accumulation in the Support Zone (187.800) The support area at 187.800 has already been tested multiple times, and each time, price has rebounded. This could indicate a strong demand zone, meaning buyers are stepping in aggressively. If buyers push price back to resistance and break through, a new bullish trend may emerge. 3. Liquidity Grab Below 188.000 The previous dip below 188.000 may have been a liquidity grab to stop out weak hands before a bullish reversal. If this assumption holds, price may now aim for higher highs rather than another rejection from resistance. 4. Market Structure Shift Instead of forming a lower high at resistance, a higher low formation could suggest an uptrend. If price finds support around 189.000 instead of dropping to 187.800, a bullish continuation pattern would be confirmed
Long
by Fx_Oliviaa
Xauusd weekly charts gold big fall soon opportunity (XAUUSD) Alternative (Bullish) Analysis 1. Support Strength at 2820 The chart suggests that price may drop to 2820, but this area has shown strong support historically Instead of further breakdown, a strong bounce from this level could lead to a bullish reversal. 2. Potential False Breakdown The resistance at 2864 is marked as a selling zone, but if price breaks above it, it could trigger stop-losses for short positions, fueling a rally. If price consolidates above 2864, it could invalidate the bearish projection. 3. Trend Line Reversal The chart shows a downtrend, but if price breaks above the descending trend line, it would signal a trend reversal rather than continuation. A bullish breakout above 2864 could target 2900+ levels. 4. Economic Events Impact The economic events marked (likely U.S. data releases) could trigger volatility. If these reports are weaker than expected, gold could rally as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conclusion While the original chart suggests a bearish move, there's a strong case for a bullish reversal if the support at 2820 holds and price breaches the 2864 resistance. Instead of shorting aggressively, traders should watch for confirmation signals before committing to a bearish or bullish bias
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Fx_Oliviaa