An Uptrend Momentum Pattern!The candlestick trend indicates an uptrend movement toward the next price resistance backed by continuous high volume on the previous trades.
The MACD indicates a divergence signal, hence, confirming the candlestick movement toward the next price resistance.
The RSI indicates a positive outlook due to fresh buying interest from the market.
R 0.675
S 0.620
Trendanalyisis
Smells Like HopiumI don't post much; mostly I just watch and observe. But at this point in time, I cannot help my self. I'm seeing way too much joy and optimism in markets over the last few weeks. The smell of strong hopium in the air is pungent, especially in crypto. Lots of traders I follow are posting 10-12x posts a day talking about bullish action...lots of screams of "333% PUSH!", "555% EASY!", etc. etc. You know who you are.
Time for some real talk--crypto autumn is over and winter is just about to begin. Let's do the math...using "King Crypto" BTC as a guide.
Here we see the 2W chart and the story is clear. I like the 2W time frame as a starting point because if levels out all the BS and allows for clear headedness in lieu of what is obvious hysteria.
What are we seeing?
1. Heikin Ashi still points almostly perfectly bearish since the Nov 21 double top. This is a negative.
2. Current price action and all candles are below every channel there is, including KC and Bollinger Band Std Dev 1 and 2. This is super very negative.
3. 2W 50 per EMA is about to death cross 100 per EMA. That's EMA, folks...not simple MA. It will be very hard to see how the next 3 months won't have this cross, but we will wait and see. This is negative.
4. Stochastic has tried 4 times since Nov 21 to break favorable and has failed every time. Short term momentum still under longer term momentum, at the very bottom of the range. This is negative.
5. MACD, while approaching zero on the bars, is persistently below long-term trendlines. This is a negative.
6. On Balance Volume (the ultimate tell) is not even close to breaking favorable. This is negative.
Technical analysis, sorting out for all the short-term noise, is all pointing in one direction...downward.
From a macro-market analysis, we are just beginning to see the shakeout of the crypto hysteria. Some points:
A. Regulation, the "all clear sign" for big money, seems stuck in the muck across numerous geos, because...
B. Crypto firms continue to go bust at a rapid pace. Hard to know where to regulate when firms are dying every month. FTX is now "old news", but as yet nobody knows how far the contagion goes. BlockFi this week, likely another before the end of the month. And the "Binance Rescue Fund" (outside of a tweet) is a pipe dream.
C. The idea of BTC (or any crypto) as an inflation hedge or safe haven is fully disproven.
D. Crypto is now, minus higher variance, inexplicably tied to Tech. Yet even the media hyped, MOMO pushed, fake-out rally in QQQ didn't get to BTC over the last month.
E. Recession looms, corporate multiples are still insane, leverage is still too high (in markets, and especially crypto), and fundamental economic dynamics globally are not favorable.
All risk assets are still very far away from bottoms, crypto especially.
Smoke the hopium all you want, but don't hit that "Buy" button. Long way to go before we are out of the woods.
"Roll it up, light it up, smoke it up...Inhale, exhale" - Cyprus Hill.
The Value of PriceA basic concept in price action trading is that when it comes to the analysis process of price, some candles are more valuable than others.
By "more valuable" I mean, some candlesticks have more weight in the analysis process of price than others. Before I explain which candles
have more inherent value, let me explain a bit of price action philosophy.
When it comes to an asset's price, or even the market in general the price action trader believes that it is a living breathing entity.
Just the same as you and I, the market's movements differ from day to day and past behavior does not predict future behavior. That said,
just like you and I, the future behavior of an living breathing entity is much easier to predict if based on the analysis of recent behavior.
So in other words, if I were to predict your next move, it is much easier and practical to base that analysis on your recent behavior, rather
than your behavior 2 years in the past.
So this core philosophy pretty much dictates how you can set values to price. Simply put," Current price is more valuable than past price in
terms of the analysis process". So if you were to predict the future direction of the price of an asset, it is wise to analyze current price rather
than past price; simply due to the fact that past price has less weight in terms of the analysis process than current price.So for example,
if your analysis of price for the last 3 months was stating that price will rise in the future; however this week's price is stating that price will
fall, the price action trader will not hesitate to sell as dictated by their analysis of current price.
So the next time you find yourself confused about the future direction of price due to conflicting signals. Ask yourself, " what is current price
telling me about the future direction of price?" and let past price stay where it belong, "in the past."
That's it!
Have a great day!
Ken
EUR/USD: patiently waiting to pull the "BUY" trigger. No rush!Firstly, by zooming out and monitoring higher-timeframe graphs, we may observe that the sentiment of the EUR/USD market is clearly bullish as the price has managed to push above the level of the previous HTF Higher High point.
Last week, we expected for some correctional moves to kick in and drive the price down in the short run before further bullish resume. However, after consolidating for a while, the USD fundamentals were able to push the price higher and form a new HH point.
The price moves in cycles. In other words, step-by-step and not like a straight rocket. And thus, we are awaiting for the price to experience a short-term drop and reach the important area of support plotted on the graph that lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before we can execute long positions and ride the trend to the upside.
BTC Update: 200d MA + Decade VWAPBTC HTF (high time frame) trend remains to the downside. The recent impulse should inject some bullish sentiment, however resistance to the upside at $24-26K. Would like to see increase volume with a rejection at the 200dMA/ Decade VWAP, swing failure down to a lower leg on the wedge.
Target remains at $10,500.
NiftyBank trend for tomorrowToday a V- shaped recovery has been seen in Niftybank from previous day's low of 41900 today it stand near 42500approx and it moves beyond that and went upto 42700. If this upward trend sustains above 42700 for tomorrow then it will hit 43000++ and will show strong momentum. But it has reversed somewhat today which shows a clear indication of inverted head and shoulder pattern on a 15 min timeframe which says if it crosses below 42300 and sustains below that then niftybank will hit 41900 and fall below that which will ruin everyone's portfolio to some extent.
So, basically what I am trying to say is that opening and the market momentum after half day will clear our confusion. Moreover DIIs buying in cash market was more than the sellings by FIIs today.
GOLD : Updates short term SetupHi everyone!
The trend is still bullish on daily chart, but at the same time, we expect some corrective structure (from here or new top) in play in near term. As we have already shown in the previous analysis, technically speaking the target of the corrective structure on 1H chart is around $1,791.
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COST - Who doesn't love costco?Costco is probably one of my favorite places to shop and I think the stock price over the last 14 years has proven that to be the case for a lot of people.
The main issue I have with buying this stock is valuation and growth of the company. I don't see how they will be able to grow fast enough to support a 35+ PE ratio.
Taking the fib from the 08 lows to the 2022 highs, we get targets around 395, 327, and 258 for the 38.2, 50.0, and 61.8 retracement levels. If you think about it, 258 from a valuation perspective only starts to make the stock a reasonable price at about a PE of 20 assuming 13.23 EPS.
It looks beautiful from a long term trend perspective and I think it has many more years to grow, but I wouldn't touch it unless it was 308 or less purely from a fundamental perspective. Might look to short this one this year.
This is not financial advice. Good Luck!
GBPAUD - longGBPAUD could be on for a long trade very soon.
The yen is appreciating as fears grow and oil reduces. Signifying a possible positioning ahead of a supposed recession.
FedEx: Bearish consolidation in short term?Hi everyone!
FedEx's main trend still remains bearish, but in the near term we are following an interesting technical rebound, that said, our guess is that the price action might need some consolidation on the intraday chart with a target 1 around $168.
If you think our analyzes are useful, support us with a simple "Like & Comments", thank you and trade with care! 💖
BTC, What do you want to do?Looks like you want to do what you did in 17.
going neutral here.
this is exciting!
This is a reference chart for me. feel free to use it.
AUDUSD | The support level has been broken !AUDUSD ANALYSIS
Used indicators Bollinger Bands(BB), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average True Range (ATR).
Please like and follow for more !!
(USDCAD) LOOK FOR BOUNCE FROM SUPPLY ZONE 1.35000!!Hope everyone's enjoyed a break, I took a lot longer then expected with moving in the process so I will have a mic set up very soon for more chart insight from myself! Anyway I thought id just share my view here on USDCAD and then cover some more pairs on request... The start of January is always quiet but as price picks up ill be watching this pair around the key area of 1.35200 for a possible bounce to continue in the current 4hr zone or a possible break of sideways structure for a move lower.
TATA STEEL Broken the Trend LineTATA STEEL took support on this trend line 3 times and now it broken with some big red candle in 1-day time frame.
Overall it looks like a bearish trend in weekly time frame and reverse in Fibonacci retracement tool at 61.8% level confirms the correction has finished and now ready to come down the mentioned levels. NSE:TATASTEEL
APE Squeeze $ Alert we got our breakout before the market closes last Friday as we spoke about it on our live streaming, now we holding above that major support box (1.85$/2$) if we did hold above that box, we going to have another pump to test our first profit taking around the 2.43$, then the second profit taking and squeeze area above the 2.80$.
VALID CHART UNTIL 2024 HALVING AND U.S.ELECTION for #TOKOINVALID CHART UNTIL 2024 HALVING AND U.S.ELECTION for #TOKOIN
Don't mind this, this is just for research. Using Fibs and tripleMA alone trying to determine price action and price bottom and tops.
My thoughts on NZDUSD 14th Dec 2022Just like the gold setup I published earlier, I also think NZDUSD will behave the same. Likewise beware of Crude Oil Inventories
BTC Bulls Next Target is $17600-$18200 After This HappensBitcoin Bulls are ready for some good green Holidays in December, The current pullback after hitting $16800 could go further down to a more stronger support range at $15800 - $15450 range. This range will provide buyers with sufficient buy capital to attempt the $16800 resistance of which I so see them clearing through it to hit $17300, but here I see market makers targeting Sellers(Shorters) stop-hunt around the $17600 all the way up to $18300.
I'm staying open minded on the support and a possible worst case scenario triple bottom could arise because for now the current Dojis on weekly support shows anything can still happen, What are the chances that the bulls will make it to above $18k in Dec?
I say we have over 75% chances of bulls making it to $18k and over 65% above $20k
The current pullback must not go below last low of $15433 range to be more open minded,
I do see that from December 2022to January 2023 will give buyers the opportunity with the current accumulation on going to achieve a little more recovery to the upside before a major more dump coming from Mid 2023 to 2024.
SPX: Be AWARE of these KEY POINTS!• In the 1h chart, the key resistance is the green line at 3,974, as this area was a multiple resistance for the index last week;
• Only if the index breaks its key resistance it could resume the bull trend and seek higher levels again, like the 4,083;
• On the other hand, the main support is the red area seen in the daily chart, and as long as the index stays above this area, it won’t reverse the mid-term bull trend;
• The mid-term trend is bullish because the index is doing higher highs/lows and it is trading above the 21 ema since October;
• The 3,911 seems to be the key support level, as only if the index loses this line it would do a technical reversal sign;
• For now, it seems the index is in a “no man’s land”, and we must wait for a proper reaction. I’ll keep you updated on this.
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SPX: Bullish reaction above a support. What to expect next?• The index is trying to react this morning, and the timing of this reaction is quite good, after all, it is just above our support area, which I mentioned yesterday;
• What’s more, yesterday’s candlestick indicates stabilization, while the 21 ema was working as a resistance;
• Now, the index is just moving according to our previous analysis, and if it closes above the 21 ema again, it might bounce to the 4,083;
• The 4,083 is a key resistance and it was a gap area;
• Only if the index loses the 3,911 I see this bull trend getting weaker. So far, nothing new or surprising is going on. Another update tomorrow.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP500 Correction Alert: Supply&Demand, Ichimoku & Trend AnalysisHello friends,
SP500 is going to experience a rough patch in 1H timeframe.
as shown in the chart, two long term and short term upward trend lines are broken .
also from an Ichimoku point of view, conversion and baseline have crossed downward with a red Kumo cloud switch and the price is below the kumo cloud. this is one the most powerful Ichimoku signals.
so its probably very wise to close all speculative long positions if you have any, meanwhile I suggest opening a short position with stop loss at: 4020, and take profit at 3730 which is the next demand zone and is marked by an order block . this short position has the risk to reward ratio of 2.6 .
Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions.
Good luck!
A Breakout Signal!The candlestick pattern indicates a price breakout signal right above the MA13 line due to significant price movement backed by high volume.
The MACD and RSI also show a positive reading which indicates a divergence signal.
Let's SOLUTN in WL and watch out for significant price movement toward the next price resistance.
R 0.380
S 0.270
LIQUIDITY RUNSLiquidity runs occurs when price gives a false break out below a support or above a resistance and the purpose is usually to take out the stops or liquidity lying around those areas. This liquidity is then used by market makers to open their large positions in the opposite directions. When a false break out occurs below a support, stop losses belonging to retail traders are wiped out and retail break out sellers get trapped. The opposite happens at a resistance level. Liquidity run is my favorite strategy when I'm anticipating market reversals or at times retracements like what happened with dollar pairs yesterday (5th Dec 2022).
