GBPUSD Selling from resistance at 1.37600📈 GBPUSD – Technical Analysis (4H Timeframe)
The pair is currently respecting an ascending channel, but price is reacting to a key resistance at 1.37600, indicating a potential short opportunity.
🔻 Sell Scenario:
If rejection holds, we could see a move toward the following technical targets:
📍 1st Target – 1.36000 (Demand Zone)
📍 2nd Target – 1.34000 (Demand Zone)
📍 3rd Target – 1.32500 (Bullish Order Block)
Stay sharp — structure remains bullish overall, but short-term corrections are in play!
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Trend Analysis
DOW JONES: Final phase of bullish wave has started.Dow is practically overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.306, MACD = 518.450, ADX = 36.217) but that should little affect the heavily bullish price action on the long term. The reason is that after the April bounce on the 1W MA200, Dow entered the final phase of the Bull Cycle that started on the October 2022 bottom and according to all prior bullish waves inside the 16 year Channel Up, it should rise by a minimum of +71%. That gives a TP = 49,000.
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US 10Y TREASURY: jobs data aheadThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge was posted during the previous week, which impacted some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index ended May by 0,1% higher from the previous month, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. The core PCE remained a bit elevated with 0,2% in May and 2,7% for the year. Still, both figures were in line with market expectations, which was the main reason for 10Y U.S. Treasury benchmark yields drop to the level of 4,25% at the end of the week, from 4,40% where the week started.
A drop in inflation figures are increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. However, a week ahead might bring again some higher volatility in the U.S. Treasury yields as the major jobs data will be posted. For the week ahead the JOLTs Job Openings, the Non-farm Payrolls and the June unemployment will be posted. Considering Fed's dual mandate, bonds market participants will be closely watching these data.
Bitcoin: a decision week Previous week brought some relief among market participants, when it was announced that the U.S. Administration and China completed the deal regarding trade tariffs. Details of this deal have not been publicly disclosed, however, the markets reacted positively to it. The U.S. equity market gained significantly, while the crypto market managed to hold higher grounds. BTC started the week with a break of $105K toward the upside, testing the resistance at $108K. The majority of trades occurred between $106K and $107K.
The RSI continued to move above the 50 level, indicating that the market is still not ready to seek the oversold market side. The indicator is ending the week at the 56, bringing some probability for the overbought market side in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come anytime soon.
Charts are showing that the BTC is currently on the cross road. There are equal probabilities that the coin might be traded toward both sides in the week ahead. On one hand, trades from the last week showed enough buying orders, which were holding the coin at the higher grounds, continuously seeking the break of the $108K level. However, if this market strength does not manage to support the BTC in the week ahead, then the reversal will be inevitable. In this case, the $105K will be the first stop.
EURUSD pullbackEURUSD remains above 1,1700 on the final day of the quarter.
This week, all eyes are on the upcoming U.S. jobs data, set to be released on Thursday due to the market holiday on Friday.
Watch for a potential pullback, which could offer a new buying opportunity.
Key support levels are at 1,1635 and 1,1562.
The goal: continuation of the trend and a new high.
Gold: eased on tariffs dealAs geopolitical and economic tensions are slowly settling down, the price of gold eased its road toward the higher grounds. During the previous week, gold was traded with a bearish sentiment, dropping from the level of $3.395 down to $3.262. The main causes behind the drop in the price of gold are related to decreased tensions in the Middle East, as well as, settlement of the trade tariffs deal between the U.S. and China. Although the details of this deal was not disclosed publicly, still, the market reacted positively to the news. Investors moved funds from safe-haven assets toward the equity and the crypto market, as riskier ones in a quest for higher returns.
The RSI took the down path, ending the week at the level of 41. The indicator is currently clearly on the road toward the oversold market side. The price of gold breached the MA50 line during the previous week, which was acting like a support line for the price of gold during the previous period. The MA200 continued with an uptrend, following the MA 50 line. There is a high distance between two lines, so the potential cross is still not in the store for the price of gold.
Charts are pointing that the gold is on the easing road currently, with a potential for further correction in the coming period. The RSI is indicating that the oversold market side might be reached in the coming period, which means that the price could further ease. The bottom of the current correction might be $3.180, which was the highest level in mid April this year. Still, some short reversals are quite expected on this road, in which sense, Monday might start with a short attempt for higher grounds. In this sense, the $3,3K level might be tested.
Falling Channel Breakout on PNUT/USDT – Next Stop: $0.76?📊 Pattern Analysis:
Falling Channel (Descending Channel): PNUT formed a clear falling channel from early May to late June 2025. This pattern typically signals a potential bullish reversal once a breakout occurs.
Confirmed Breakout: The price has successfully broken above the upper boundary of the falling channel, which is an early sign of a potential bullish trend.
Strong Support Zone: The horizontal zone around $0.20 – $0.26 USDT has acted as a solid demand base, as seen multiple times from March to June.
✅ Bullish Scenario:
If the breakout continues with momentum, the price could move upward gradually, aiming for the following resistance levels:
1. Target 1: $0.2986 – Minor resistance
2. Target 2: $0.3774 – Previous consolidation area
3. Target 3: $0.4403 – Major historical resistance
4. Target 4: $0.5951 to $0.7674 – Recovery zone from the falling channel
5. Extended Target (Long-Term): $1.0797 to $1.7957 (if a full rally occurs with strong bullish sentiment)
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold the breakout and re-enters the channel:
Potential drop back to the support zone of $0.2000 - $0.1600
A breakdown below this range may lead to further downside toward $0.1300 to $0.1000 (previous historical low)
🔍 Summary:
The chart displays a classic bullish reversal pattern with a confirmed breakout from the falling channel.
The $0.26–$0.29 area now acts as a key confirmation zone. If the price holds above it and completes a successful retest, the bullish continuation is likely.
However, traders should stay cautious of false breakouts.
#PNUTUSDT #CryptoBreakout #AltcoinSeason #ChartAnalysis #BullishReversal #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutTrading #CryptoSignals #DescendingChannel
Bitcoin remains flat despite whales hoarding and rising stocks.
The stock market closed at an all-time high on Friday, and institutions have rushed to buy Bitcoin, but the price of the cryptocurrency has not risen significantly.
Stocks are rising, whales are hoarding, why is Bitcoin still stagnant?
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs last Friday. As of this writing, the Dow Jones is up nearly 200 points. Bitcoin companies like Strategy and Metaplanet have been buying Bitcoin like crazy, but its price has barely moved.
U.S. President Donald Trump scored several victories over the weekend. He stood firm and abruptly ended all trade negotiations with Canada until the country's Prime Minister Mark Carney canceled the controversial digital services tax on American technology companies. The tax was originally scheduled to be imposed on Monday, but it has been officially withdrawn and will be cancelled through the legislative process. U.S.-Canada trade talks are expected to resume soon.
Bitcoin remains flat even as whales hoard and stocks rally
(US President Donald Trump forced Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (right) to cancel the 3% "digital services tax" on US tech companies)
Another victory for Trump was the successful advancement of his "Big Beautiful Bill" to the final Senate debate stage. The bill received 51 votes in favor and 49 against in a Senate vote on Saturday night. Republicans hope that if all goes well, it can be finalized before the Fourth of July holiday.
"A Great Beautiful Bill, moving along smoothly," Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Make America Great Again!"
Experts say these small victories of the Trump administration at least partially explain the optimism among stock traders and investors. But cryptocurrency analysts remain confused as the industry's flagship cryptocurrency is still consolidating.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $106,759.65 and $108,798.79, with relatively small fluctuations. At the time of reporting, the price was down 0.65% to $107,142.61, but still up 5.33% in seven days, according to Coinmarketcap.
Volume was $39.8 billion, up 25.4%, but this was mostly a typical post-weekend rally. Market capitalization edged up 0.74% to $2.12 trillion, while Bitcoin dominance rose 0.07% to 65.41%.
Futures open interest fell 2.17% to $71.92 billion, showing less leveraged speculation. Liquidation data from Coinglass shows total liquidations of $47.19 million over the past day, with short liquidations amounting to $35.72 million and long position liquidations amounting to $11.46 million.
Could the price reverse from here?AUD/USD is reacting off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6537
1st Support: 0.6359
1st Resistance: 0.6680
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NZDJPY to find sellers at market price?NZDJPY - 24h expiry
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 87.80.
We look to Sell at 87.80 (stop at 88.00)
Our profit targets will be 87.00 and 86.85
Resistance: 87.80 / 88.00 / 88.25
Support: 87.20 / 87.00 / 86.75
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The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 30 June - 4 JulyMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Eurozone Inflation, US Jobs, ISM PMIs, ECB Forum Updates
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash
— US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
— US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI
— ECB Forum on Central Banking
Note: U.S. markets may see thin trading ahead of the 4 July holiday, raising volatility risks.
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance Zone-updateGBPNZD: Potential Reversal From The Resistance Zone-update
Based on our previous analysis, GBPNZD has retested 2.7000 and currently appears poised for a bearish movement.
GBPNZD tested an area that was also tested earlier at the beginning of March 2025
From the chart, we can see that this zone has stopped the price several times on the past.
The chances are that GBPNZD may start a bearish wave from the same zone again despite that the market has frozen for all instruments lately.
The Geopolitical situation looks more stable, which can help all currencies regain direction.
NZD is already oversold too much so it can take advantage of this moment.
Key target areas: 2.2500; 2.2380 and 2.2280
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CoinbaseThere isn't much to add to my COIN analysis. Price hit just shy of the 1.618 and then reversed. Price dropped by almost 10% from that last high. This bodes well for the top being in and the irregular (B) wave pattern prevailing. We still have a lot of work to do to prove that is what is happening though. Until we can breach $277 followed by a breach of $232.85, we can't be for certain. Yes, we will have hints on the way down. However, these price points will be what confirms the pattern lower. As I said above, COIN has a lot of work to do to prove its intentions. This last move up I think is largely due to the end of the quarter, congressional legislation, and FOMO.
MACD is back to within the red trend lines and appears to be weakening to the downside. This shouldn't be too surprising given how far we fell last Friday. That move lower, has created a 3-wave move thus far. Another local low before starting a consolidation higher would create a 5-wave pattern bringing more clarity, but it isn't required.
Again, I don't want to see another high made above last Thursdays if (B) is to be correct. A new high itself doesn't invalidate an irregular (B), but it would cause me to become very skeptical of it.
When I said last week that COIN has a pivotal moment right in front of it, I wasn't kidding. It appears to have chosen a move lower for now, but it is not guaranteed to continue and we could always move higher again from here. Just be careful in whatever position you take, and use stops to protect your assets.
Bullish reversal?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.4% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.7950
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.4% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 0.7899
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 0.8052
Why we like it:
Thee is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD – June 30, 2025: Trade Strategy Right Now – Focus on SellGold OANDA:XAUUSD has been recovering slightly toward the 3,282 USD zone, but macroeconomic headwinds remain strong:
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY remains above 106.3 – the highest level in a month – making gold less attractive due to increased opportunity cost.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain firm around 4.35%, reflecting market expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy.
- Core PCE data for June remains elevated, far from the Fed's 2% target – lowering the likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon.
- Geopolitical tensions are cooling off, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
➡ These macro factors suggest that the current rebound in gold is more technical than fundamental, and unlikely to signal a major trend reversal.
1. Technical Analysis – XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD on D1 Timeframe
- After bouncing from 3,255 USD, price is now testing the 3,285 – 3,295 USD resistance zone.
- This is a Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5 – 0.618) from the previous bearish leg 3,314 → 3,255.
- EMA20 and EMA50 remain downward-sloping, signaling that the dominant trend is still bearish.
- RSI is hovering around 52, suggesting mild momentum but not enough for a confirmed bullish reversal.
➡ The current price behavior aligns with a pullback within a downtrend, with potential for continuation to the downside.
2. Trade Setup – Short-Term Sell Strategy
Primary Setup: Sell the Rally
Entry: Sell near 3,294 – 3,295
Stop Loss: 3,300
Take Profit 1: 3,260
Take Profit 2: 3,244
Take Profit 3: 3,225
Ps: Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is showing signs of a technical bounce, but fundamentals and structure still support the downtrend. Selling at resistance remains the preferred strategy as long as macro pressure persists.
The strategy will be updated continuously – don't forget to save and follow to avoid missing key opportunities.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
GBPUSD sideways consolidation support at 1.3550The GBPUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Level: 1.3600
This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.3600 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at:
1.3825 – Near-term resistance
1.3865 – Minor swing high
1.3900 – Longer-term bullish objective
On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.3600 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
1.3550 – Initial support
1.3500 – Key downside target
Conclusion:
As long as 1.3600 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Oversupply Meets Tepid Demand Weighing Down on Soybean MealSoybean meal futures rose in mid-June amid Israel-Iran tensions but retreated after a ceasefire. Even a 129% month-on-month surge in China’s May soybean imports failed to support prices.
Spike in import volumes is a consequence of normalisation in customs clearance and a rebound in crushing plant activity. In April, imports plunged to a decade low of 6.08 million metric tonnes due to delayed Brazilian shipments and port congestion. June imports are expected to remain elevated (~12 million tonnes), fuelling oversupply concerns.
Rising soybean oil prices, driven by higher crude and seasonal biofuel demand, have led to increased crushing, further boosting meal supply.
China’s terminal feed factories are working through high inventories, dampening near-term demand. With China accounting for two-thirds of global bean imports, anaemic demand is a solid bearish price driver.
Elevated supply and tepid Chinese demand pose downside risk for soybean meal prices in the near term.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO BEARISHNESS AS WELL
Bearish momentum in soybean meal has strengthened, with prices sliding sharply since 23/Jun. A death cross formed on 25/Jun, as the 21-day Displaced Moving Average (DMA) crossed below the 9-day DMA amplifying bearish sentiments.
Additionally, prices fell below the 50-day DMA on 24/Jun and have remained below it, reinforcing the downward trend.
Bearish MACD and a weakening RSI signal continued weakening of meal prices.
OPTIONS MARKET SIGNAL BULLISHNESS IN THE MEDIUM TERM
For the week ending 16/Jun, Managed Money’s net long positioning in soybean meal futures fell by 23.4%, reflecting an 11% drop in longs and an 8.9% rise in shorts.
Soybean meal's implied volatility has risen since 25/Jun, with skew picking up from 27/Jun, despite falling prices. This points to rising uncertainty & potential for wider price swings.
Source: CME CVOL
Option open interest points to muted activity in the near term. However, Overall open-interest put-call-ratio point to bullishness.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Strong call OI buildup from July to November signals medium-term recovery hopes.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The downtrend in soybean meal futures looks set to persist, with both technical and fundamental signals reinforcing bearish sentiment.
While rising IV, skew, and an oversold RSI hint at a possible near-term bounce, any mean reversion is likely to be short-lived without a shift in underlying fundamentals.
Seasonally, July–August tends to mark seasonal lows as inventory builds pressure prices further, particularly in China.
This paper posits a tactical short on CME Micro Soybean Meal August futures (MZMQ25 expiring on 25th Jul), targeting a decline in prices.
Investors can use the CME Micro Soybean Meal Futures, which are sized at one-tenth (10 short tons) of standard contracts (which are 100 short tons). This allows for a cost-effective method to express a short-term bearish stance. As of 27th Jun, the minimum exchange margin on this contract is USD 170 per lot.
• Entry: USD 284.5/Short Ton
• Potential Profit: USD 264.5/Short Ton (284.5– 264.5= 20) x 10 = USD 200
• Potential Stop-Loss: USD 297/Short Ton (284.5- 297 = -12.5) x 10 = USD 125
• Hypothetical Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.6x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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