Gold short-term trend analysis. Trading range is 2850~2900Gold ended its 9-day winning streak on the weekly chart. The weekly chart fell sharply for the first time since December. The retracement tested the MA5/7-day moving average, and the RSI indicator Zhonghui's central axis value was 50. The daily chart adjusted downward for four consecutive trading days. The MA10/7-day moving average formed a high of 2916 and opened downward and gradually moved down to 2903/12. At the same time, the 5-day moving average moved down to 2885, and the RSI indicator central axis was adjusted. The price was running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band.
The price of the short-term four-hour chart was in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band channel, and the moving average opened downward. However, after the hourly and four-hour charts RSI indicators tested the 20 value and formed an overbought closing on Friday, they turned upward. Coupled with the stimulus of the weekend market news, gold opened at 2858 in the Asian session and rose sharply to 2876. A strong counterattack and pull-up was formed. It is not suitable to buy in the sharp rise of the Asian session at the beginning of the week. The 2893/2920 trend line of the descending channel has not formed a break, so the transaction is still based on the trend line waiting for high selling.
From the current market, even if the gold price may fall in the short term, we should also be alert to the weak NFP employment data or slowing wage growth this week, which may rekindle the market's expectations of the Fed's accelerated rate cuts and promote the rebound of gold prices. If it breaks through $2,900, it is expected to restart the bull trend. If the negative NFP data will strengthen the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, gold may be further under pressure to explore the $2,800 support. After the technical break, the short-selling momentum may be accelerated, increasing the risk of short-term downside.
Then for today's operation, the market will definitely stir up more waves. In the case of a sharp rise at the opening, if 2880 is not broken, we can still expect a fall back to the 2860-2850 area. In other words, the long position still needs to wait for 2860-2850 to stabilize before seeking entry. On the upside, if it breaks through and stabilizes above 2880, you can buy directly, and look for selling opportunities when it is blocked at 2890-2900.
Of course, the possibility of malicious reshuffles today cannot be ruled out. It would be better to compress the shock range to the range of 2900-2850, and then wait for the trend to become clear before following the market.
Key points:
First support: 2860, second support: 2853, third support: 2843
First resistance: 2880, second resistance: 2888, third resistance: 2896
Operation ideas:
Buy: 2850-2853, stop: 2842, target: 2870-2880;
Sell: 2878-2880, stop: 2889, target: 2860-2850;
