Trading Notes - April 26th
I’m struggling to stay bearish on US stocks-bearish in the short-term as the sentiment is now mainstream. The negative news dominating the headlines could create a lot of potential for a surprise upside move in the near term.
Yesterday’s steady SPX rally, despite no news, was impressive. We could easily rally another 2-4% in the short term. The sharp downside move over the last couple months does leave potential for a local lower high which would be concerning.
If there are trades to be made, intraday ranges is where I’d put my focus on stocks (and not be tooo greedy). Bitcoin has the potential the put in a macro reversal if it closes the week strong. A swing trade entry at the 200 daily MA on BTC is still in play.
SPX Technicals
Volume profile:
POC: $5609
Upside interest: $5750
Downside interest: $5303
The line in the sand over the next 2 months is the 5120 level - the August 2024 low. If we close June there, 6M bearish divergence on the RSI leaves potential for a prolonged bear market. But that’s enough long-term analysis at a news-driven time when technicals have little bearing on price action.
What I’m focusing on this week:
- Sizing down
- Taking quick profits
- Watching trump’s tweets
Trend Analysis
> "Gold (XAU/USD) - Demand Zone Bounce Targeting 3500 "Current Price: $3,319.59
Indicator: 70 EMA at $3,324.95 ➡️ 📈 (still slightly above price = bearish pressure)
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Main Observations:
🔵 Demand Zone (📦 Buyers' Area):
Between $3,253 - $3,280
Every time price dips here ➡️ buyers react!
✏️ Descending Trendline:
⬇️ Short-term trend is bearish
Price is trying to break above it now (watch closely!)
🎯 Target Point:
$3,500 🏹 (Big upside if breakout succeeds!)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
$3,253 🔥 (just below the demand zone = good protection)
Trade Idea:
✅ Buy near demand zone 🔵 after breakout confirmation 📈
✅ Target: $3,500 🎯
✅ Stop-Loss: $3,253 🛡️
Quick Dots Summary:
🔵 Demand zone is strong (buyers defending)
🔻 Still under 70 EMA (bearish until breakout)
✏️ Watching for breakout of trendline = key signal
🎯 Massive Risk:Reward ratio if it works
⚡ If no breakout and price falls, stop-loss saves capital.
bitcoin bull market topLooking for October 2025 to be the end of this bull market. 1057 days ( doesn't have to be exact days), that's how long it took for the bull run -the last 3 cycles. So, going by that, we've got till October for this bull market to end. Yes, a lot of indicators show bearish signs, and that we might be in a bear market already, but I believe we still have power left in us
you're suggesting for XAUUSD tomorrowTrend reversal expected around 3328 zone.
Then fall back toward 3228 support level.
Possibly even lower afterward.
Let’s break it down a little:
3328 is a major psychological level (very round number).
If it reverses there, the first target is 3228, another clean support.
If 3228 breaks, the next lower supports could be around 3200, 3180, maybe even 3155 (depending on the momentum).
ZB1! - Low Hanging Fruits Pays The Bills!Please refer to US10Y Yields if you want a detailed, 360 analysis of the bond and yields market as I cover the reasons why price action has been soo tricky recently and what to expect going forward.
Low hanging fruits if important right now and studying the daily timeframe throughout next week will give me the indication whether 116.18 will be a good price for the bonds to reverse from or a springboard for higher prices
ETHBTC will supercede BTCs price growth % metrics. Time to SEED!ETH has been met with so much price gravity lately that it went to correct unbelievably from 4k+ to 1.5k.
Thats more than -3x of its peak price - an overextended trim compare to its peers like BTC which did a muted hibernation but still price remained afloat up there.
But hope is starting to arise from the latest price behavior. We are seeing some significant shift in trend. Net longs are starting to pile up from the current bargain price area -- conveying positioning of long term growth seekers. BTC is showing some massive break in structure as well showing some obvious signs of market recovery as a whole.
With this in mind, ETH metrics is becoming more and more attractive -- if we compare its possible price growth in terms of percentage and proportionality growth ratio.
ETHBTC will definitely benefit with this forthcoming growth ratio change.
Based on our diagram, we are already seeing some gradual shift -- a first sign of reversal to the upside. This can roll up soon and pace up its numbers.
Price is currently bouncing perfectly from its 6 year solid support. This is a massive hint already of things to come. GOOD THINGS.
Spotted at 0.0190
Target X10.
TAYOR. Trade safely.
CautionSHIB is at a key level and previously formed a small body bearish candle with a long upper wick. Stochastic RSI is very over bought, and RSI is getting closer to overbought levels. Price needs to overcome and close above the 0.00001420 price range to continue positive price action. Please see chart for key levels and remember the EMA's can sometimes act as support and resistance.
Wajani Investments: GPBUSDPair has currently formed a double top (R1, R2) with R2 on the lower side showing bull weakness. If this chart is zoomed in, we see that price has been in a downtrend. The big bull candle on R2 is a buy climax with bulls last push. The last 3 handles on R2 could not make it back to the top still confirming bull weakness.
Watch entry level if price changes and act accordingly.
Let me know your thoughts.
Thank you.
GBP-JPY Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY keeps growing
From the lows just as we
Expected but the pair will
Soon hit a horizontal resistance
Of 192.500 and from there
A local bearish pullback
It likely to follow
Sell!
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TRX setting up a FOMO Scenario on DailyIs Justin Sun setting us up for FOMO with TRX? Daily is accumulating. is it for an explosion up, or down? I have no additional information than what's portrayed in the picture. Plenty of room for MFI, break out is another tap of the upper BB Band, and momentum is clearly ready to just go up. my guess is this is a breakout trade already started but who knows. So hard to tell and our boy Justin S can stay way more solvent then you can and way longer. he can keep prices down for years if he wanted to. But, I like our chances here. SL would be a bottom bb band touch before an upper band touch. this is a spot only trade. If break out is up, people will FOMO this and they may not be wrong.
DAX WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅DAX has been growing recently
And the index seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a horizontal resistance of 22,444
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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GBP_CHF CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅GBP_CHF has retested a nice key resistance level of 1.1100
And as the pair is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 1.0950 is likely
SHORT🔥
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Multiple Ingredients for a Supernova Soup - $SESLet's start with the fact that this small cap hit my scanner at around 73 cents - and triggered a Tier 1 and Tier 2 buy program above $1.00 - The initial buy signal gap took weeks to fill and confirmed this was not a one-off... to top it all off earnings just blew everyone's socks off with almost a 200% revenue surprise, and if that wasn't good enough they announced a $30mm share buyback of common stock at retail - all of this combined with the AI buzz and a weekly slingshot that looks juicier than ever - we have ourselves a good chance at a multi week runner here. Will not be surprised to see a parabolic move between $10 and $20 PPS.
Possible Reverse? SOFI maybe at the start of a trend reversal, we recently had a breakout from the 10 EMA and the downward parallel channel. Full confirmation will be when we have a break of structure BOS from the 13.88 price area. The oscillators are healthy also, let's hope we get an RSI breakout also. Please see chart for key levels and please remember other Fundamental news like upcoming Earnings and the geopolitical landscape and the "fake outs".
BTCUSDT ### 1. Heikin Ashi:
- The recent candles are small with no strong lower shadows (short wicks and small bodies) → Indicates weakening buyers.
- No pure bullish candles (full green body with no lower shadow) are visible.
### 2. Regular Candles:
- Formation of a small red candle after the peak of 95,600 → Suggests a retest of resistance and a potential double-top pattern.
- Trading volume has decreased compared to the previous leg (smaller blue volumes) → Weak demand at higher levels.
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### Is now the time to enter?
**No**, it’s better to wait until one of the following two scenarios becomes clear:
#### **1) Long Entry Signal:**
- Clear breakout above **95,600** (more than one 4H candle closing above resistance).
- **Heikin Ashi confirmation:** At least **2 strong bullish candles** (long body, short lower shadow).
- High buying volume relative to the **10-candle average**.
- **Entry strategy:** After the 4H candle closes above resistance, you can enter long with a stop-loss below **95,600** and an initial target of **98,000–100,000**.
#### **2) Short Entry Signal:**
- Breakdown and **4H candle closing below the purple trendline** (short-term support).
- **Heikin Ashi confirmation:** Appearance of at least **2 consecutive red candles** with short shadows.
- Increase in selling volume (red volume larger than average).
- **Entry strategy:** After the candle closes below the trendline, you can enter short with a stop-loss above the breakdown point and an initial target around **92,000–90,000**.
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### **Summary:**
- **Do not open any new trades** until either a breakout above **95,600** or a breakdown below the trendline occurs.
- Always place a **tight stop-loss** at the invalidation point.
- Adjust position size based on **risk management**.
By following these principles, you’ll enter trades with **limited risk** and a **higher probability of success**. Good luck!
CADJPY: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
CADJPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short CADJPY
Entry Point - 103.70
Stop Loss - 104.30
Take Profit - 102.64
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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