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Trend Analysis

FED, a hidden rate cut?1) Money supply at an all-time high: an apparent paradox given that the Fed is no longer lowering interest rates The M2 money supply in the United States has just reached a new all-time high, even though the Federal Reserve has not lowered its key interest rate since December 2024. This may come as a surprise: how is such an influx of liquidity possible without explicit action by the Fed on rates? However, this phenomenon is providing strong support for risky assets, starting with the S&P 500 index, which has rebounded sharply since April. For the record, M2 includes immediately available liquidity in the economy: currency in circulation, demand deposits, time deposits, money market funds, and highly liquid assets. It is therefore a key indicator of the spending and investment capacity of economic agents. This rebound in money supply comes against a backdrop of macroeconomic resilience in the United States: commercial bank lending is picking up again, the labor market remains strong, and wages continue to rise. At the same time, the long-term upward trend in US stock markets remains intact. All these factors are fueling endogenous monetary expansion, regardless of immediate monetary policy decisions on interest rates. This strong return of liquidity is in turn fueling the markets, creating a self-reinforcing loop between rising asset prices, economic confidence, and credit injection. The chart below shows the overlap between US M2 money supply and the S&P 500 futures trend. 2) Implicit monetary easing: has the Fed already pivoted without saying so? The main explanation for this monetary expansion lies in an implicit pivot by the Fed, not through the Fed Funds rate, but via two less visible but equally powerful channels: the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility) and QT (Quantitative Tightening). On the one hand, use of the RRP program has been in free fall for several months. This tool allows money market funds to place their excess short-term liquidity with the Fed. When the RRP declines, it means that this liquidity returns to the financial system to be reinvested elsewhere (Treasury bills, money markets, risky assets). This simple shift in cash constitutes an implicit easing of monetary conditions, lowering real short-term rates and increasing the availability of capital. On the other hand, the Fed has significantly slowed its quantitative tightening program. In May 2025, it lowered its monthly cap on Treasury reductions to just $5 billion (down from $25 billion previously). This amounts to slowing the contraction of its balance sheet, thereby removing less structural liquidity from the economy. The result: the two levers, less sterilization via the RRP and less contraction via QT, combine to form de facto monetary easing, without any official change in the key interest rate. 3) So what are the consequences for the S&P 500 index? In this context, the rebound in the S&P 500 can be explained not only by the current phase of trade diplomacy but also by hidden monetary easing. From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 futures contract remains in a medium-term uptrend as long as the major support level of 5700/5800 points is maintained. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Gold strategy analysis todayHello Traders 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit Gold has strongly broken through the 3290 area and is currently fluctuating around 3300. As long as the price of gold remains below 3325, the bearish pattern to 3200-3140 remains valid. However, if the 3325 area is broken, we will enter a wave of upward movement, with the target pointing to the previous high.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by YettaTerry
Intel - This might be the bottom!Intel - NASDAQ:INTC - might create a bottom: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) For almost an entire year, Intel has been consolidating at a major horizontal support. Considering the previous significant bloodbath, Intel might soon find its bottom, which is inevitably followed by a major bullish reversal. After all, market structure is slowly shifting bullish. Levels to watch: $20.0, $25.0 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
6
DOGEUSDT → Long squeeze before growth?BINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P is consolidating. A range with clear boundaries has formed. Before a possible breakout, a liquidation (false breakdown) may form On D1, the structure is quite positive. Earlier, the price tested the downward resistance, but there was no reaction (fall) as such. Instead, the price is consolidating within the range of 0.211 (0.205) - 0.23 - 0.253. Bitcoin, like the entire crypto market, is consolidating within fairly clear boundaries. Based on the current situation, it would be logical to wait for one part of the market to be liquidated before the price can move in either direction. Based on the bullish market, there may be a retest of support in the form of a false break... Resistance levels: 0.2308, 0.253 Support levels: 0.213, 0.2116, 0.205 DOGE is consolidating with a focus on the 0.23–0.211 range. Against the backdrop of a bullish trend, a liquidation (long squeeze) relative to the lower boundary of the 0.23–0.205 range is possible before growth continues. A false break of support and liquidity capture would be useful maneuvers before implementation. However, if the market is aggressive enough and resistance at 0.23 is broken with subsequent consolidation above this level, it could trigger premature growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
It seems calm, but there are actually undercurrents!Today, the monthly, weekly and daily lines closed simultaneously. At the same time, the PCE data will be released during the US trading session, and the market volatility may intensify. From a technical point of view, 3285 is also the key to long and short today. If gold does not break 3285 today, the strength of gold bulls is expected to continue, and there is still room for gold to move upward. If gold continues to fall and falls below 3285, then gold may begin to fluctuate in a large range. The upper resistance is in the 3320-3330 area, and the focus is on the 3335-3340 line of suppression. Pay attention to the 3290-3285 line of support below, and the key position below is in the 3280 area. If it breaks below the 3280 area during the day, the market is expected to fall again to the 3265-3250-3240 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
1
GOOGLE Repeating 2024 pattern and eyes $197.00Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has established a Channel Up pattern since the (near) 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) rebound. With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now acting as a Support, this pattern resembles the Channel Up formations that emerged in 2024. Both in terms of 1W RSI and pure price action alike, we are in a similar consolidation level as November and April 2024. Both patterns peaked after similar rallies (+40.60% and +46.23% respectively), so the minimum Target we are expecting on the medium-term is $197.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by TradingShot
1