Trend Analysis
USD/CHF Falls to Its Lowest Level in Nearly Five MonthsUSD/CHF Falls to Its Lowest Level in Nearly Five Months
Today, the exchange rate of one US dollar against the Swiss franc dropped below 0.87000 francs—its lowest level since early November 2024.
Since the start of 2025, the USD/CHF pair has declined by more than 4%.
Why Is USD/CHF Falling Today?
On one hand, the US dollar is weakening against other currencies due to Trump’s decision to implement the previously announced tariffs on international trade, as mentioned in our previous post.
On the other hand, the Swiss franc is gaining strength due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, this morning’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation in Switzerland remains at zero, increasing the franc’s value at a time when tariff conflicts pose risks to the global economy.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CHF Chart
Since the start of 2025, the USD/CHF pair has been following a downward trajectory, highlighted by a declining channel (marked in red), with the following key points:
→ The median line has shifted from support to resistance, as indicated by the arrows.
→ The price broke through the March support level around 0.8757, accelerating the decline.
→ The lower boundary of the channel provided support this morning, slowing bearish momentum.
It is possible that the 0.8757 level will act as resistance in April 2025. However, the future direction of USD/CHF will largely depend on news developments, particularly statements from global leaders regarding tariffs in international trade.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SHIB/USDT Price is approaching a strong support zone around🔍 1. Price Trend
SHIB is currently trading inside a descending channel, capped by a major downward trendline (black line).
Price is approaching a strong support zone around 0.00001150 – 0.00001200, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci level (0.00001503) — a common area for bullish reversals.
📊 2. Technical Indicators
✅ RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI is at 34.17, close to the oversold zone (30).
Slight bullish divergence between RSI and price suggests a potential upcoming bounce.
✅ MACD
MACD line is starting to cross above the signal line from below → bullish crossover.
Momentum is still weak, but this is often an early sign of trend reversal.
✅ WTO (Wave Trend Oscillator)
WTO is curving upwards, and green histogram bars are forming.
This signals early buy pressure and potential for an upside move.
✅ Cluster Algo
The main line is turning up from the lower band.
The appearance of green dots under the oscillator suggests early accumulation and a possible trend reversal.
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud
Price is trading below the Kumo cloud, meaning the overall trend is bearish.
However, the cloud is thin ahead → potential breakout zone if buyers step in.
🔢 Fibonacci Retracement (from top to bottom)
Key resistance levels:
0.786: 0.00001503 (close to current price, possible bounce)
0.618: 0.00002153 (major resistance)
0.5: 0.00002609 (midpoint target)
These levels act as potential resistance targets if price begins to recover.
🧠 Summary Table
Factor Signal
Price Trend Bearish (within downtrend channel)
RSI Near oversold, bullish divergence
MACD Bullish crossover, early momentum
WTO Upward signal, green bars forming
Cluster Algo Green signals appearing, bullish lean
Ichimoku Still bearish but near breakout area
Fibonacci Near 0.786 support – reversal potential
🎯 Suggested Scenarios:
Short-term: Possible technical bounce toward 0.000015 – 0.000017 range.
Mid-term: If SHIB breaks the descending channel, targets may extend to 0.0000215 (Fibo 0.618) and 0.000026 (Fibo 0.5).
Long-term: A proper reversal needs confirmation via breakout above the Ichimoku cloud and trendline resistance.
S&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's TariffS&P 500 Index Hits 2025 Low Following Trump's Tariff Announcement
As shown on the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart, the benchmark US stock index dropped below 5,450 points for the first time in 2025. This decline reflects the US stock market’s reaction to the tariffs imposed by the White House on international trade.
According to Reuters:
→ President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with Asian countries being hit the hardest.
→ This move escalates the global trade war. "The consequences will be devastating for millions of people worldwide," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, adding that the 27-member EU bloc is preparing to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
Financial Markets’ Reaction to Trump’s Tariffs
→ Stock markets in Beijing and Tokyo fell to multi-month lows.
→ Gold hit a new all-time high, surpassing $3,160.
→ The US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is now trading at levels last seen in September 2024, before Trump's election victory.
Investor sentiment appears to have turned bearish, with growing concerns over the impact of Trump's tariffs, as fears mount that they could slow down the US economy and fuel inflation.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The bearish momentum seen yesterday signals a continued correction, which we first identified in our 17 March analysis.
At that time, we mapped out a rising channel (blue) that began in 2024, suggesting that selling pressure might ease near its lower boundary. However, Trump's policy decision has reinforced bearish confidence, and now the price may continue fluctuating within the two downward-sloping red lines. This suggests that the long-term blue growth channel is losing its relevance.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
PEPE/USDT RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential1. Price Chart & Falling Wedge Pattern
PEPE is currently trading within a falling wedge, a pattern that typically signals a bullish reversal upon breakout.
Price just bounced from a key support zone around 0.000000525 - 0.000000690, forming a potential double bottom.
Still hugging the lower wedge boundary, meaning a breakout or a strong bounce is possible.
2. Ichimoku Cloud
Price is below the Kumo cloud, confirming a bearish long-term trend.
However, both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are flat, hinting at a potential squeeze before a big move.
The future cloud is narrowing, showing reduced resistance in case of a bullish breakout.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI is around 30.12, entering oversold territory.
It's starting to curl upward, suggesting a possible bullish divergence.
4. WTO (Wave Trend Oscillator)
WTO is deep in the oversold zone, and a green signal dot just appeared.
This often indicates early signs of momentum reversal or upcoming bounce.
5. MACD
MACD just flipped bullish with a crossover below the zero line — a classic early reversal signal.
The histogram is turning green, confirming the downtrend is losing strength.
6. Cluster Algo
Both green and red lines are in deep oversold conditions, hovering close together — a sign of consolidation.
A green dot just flashed, another indication that a bullish move may be coming.
Summary
✅ Bullish signals:
Price sitting on major support + falling wedge pattern.
RSI, MACD, WTO all showing reversal potential.
Early signs of bullish divergence.
⚠️ Caution:
Long-term trend still bearish (below Ichimoku cloud).
No significant volume spike yet to confirm a breakout.
Suggested Strategy (Not financial advice):
Speculative entry: around 0.00000070 – 0.00000073
Stop-loss: below 0.00000052
Take-profits:
TP1: 0.00000105 (Fibonacci 0.5)
TP2: 0.00000131 (Fibonacci 0.618)
TP3: 0.00000223 (Fibonacci 0.786)
EURUSD update 20.03After a successful swing long
that was taken
We've reached external liquidity
Now, I expect a correction to the green box; from it, we will go even higher—reaching liquidity from above.
The current correction will take some time to form. It may happen faster, but I have indicated the targets on the chart.
Best regards EXCAVO
Dollar I Monday CLS, KL - Order Block, Model 1Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
David Perk ⚔
Gold Analysis March 4Fundamental Analysis
Persistent concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs could act as a catalyst for the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, risk-off sentiment, coupled with expectations that a tariff-induced slowdown in the US economy could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle early, has caused a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. This, in turn, has pushed the US dollar (USD) to its lowest level since October 2024 and helped limit the downside in non-yielding gold. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to confirm that XAU/USD has topped out.
Technical Analysis
Today’s trading range is likely to see a fairly high probability of a drop. If it breaks 3116, gold will find its way back to 3081. In case gold breaks the downward structure as analyzed in the upward direction, pay attention to the SELL zone around 3148-3150. Wishing everyone a successful trading day.
Just In: $PI Dips 6% Losing The $1 Pivot- Is There Still Hope?The price of the crypto currency NASDAQ:PI saw s noteworthy dip today, down by 6% approaching All time Low (ATL). With massive selling pressure, NASDAQ:PI has lose the $1 pivot to the bears.
However, with the appearance of a falling wedge, it clearly hints at an impending bullish reversal on the horizon with a speculated 350% surge albeit the crypto is having its own fair share of the marker's volatility.
With the RSI at 31 further hinting at a trend reversal, a breakout might be lurking around the corners.
Pi Price Live Data
The live Pi price today is $0.678989 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $213,832,968 USD. Pi is down 5.03% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #26, with a live market cap of $4,612,460,558 USD. It has a circulating supply of 6,793,134,138 PI coins and a max. supply of 100,000,000,000 PI coins.
**"Gold Market Bullish Setup – Potential Breakout Ahead"** here are the key insights:
### **1. Key Support and Resistance Levels**
- **Support Level:** Around **3,054** (lower boundary).
- **Resistance Level:** Around **3,136** (upper boundary).
### **2. Trading Plan & Potential Breakout**
- The chart shows an **ascending trendline**, indicating a **bullish movement** in the market.
- The price is approaching a **resistance zone**, suggesting that if a breakout happens, the market may move higher.
### **3. Trading Setup**
- **Buy Entry:** If the price **breaks above 3,136**, a **buy trade** can be considered.
- **Stop Loss:** Around **3,083** (below key support).
- **Take Profit Target:** Next major resistance, around **3,160 - 3,180**.
### **Conclusion**
- The current setup appears **bullish**, but confirmation is needed through a **breakout above resistance**.
- If the price fails to break the resistance, a **bearish reversal** may occur, pushing the price downward.
Gold Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels with Target This chart shows gold trading within an ascending channel, with key levels of support and resistance.
- Current Price: 3,092.900
- Resistance Zone: Around 3,155 (Target)
- Support Zone: Price is testing this area now, potential for a bounce.
- Major Support Zone: Below at around 3,040, acting as a secondary buy opportunity.
Key Observations:
- Rejection at Resistance: Price failed to break higher and is now pulling back.
- Potential Bounce: If support holds, price may push back toward 3,155.
- Break Below Support:** A deeper retracement to the **major support zone could happen before a stronger buy setup.
- First Target:3,155 (Resistance Zone)
- Second Target: If momentum continues, next upside levels could be around **3,180–3,200**
If the support zone fails and price moves lower:
- First Downside Target: 3,040 (Major Support Zone)
- Second Downside Target: 3,000 (Psychological Level)
The reaction at the support zone will determine the next move. If it holds, we look for buys targeting 3,155. If it breaks, we shift focus to the major support at 3,040.
How will gold perform after the super rollercoaster market?Gold's 1-hour moving average still shows signs of turning downwards. Although gold bulls have made a strong counterattack, it is also because of the risk-aversion news that stimulated a retaliatory rebound. However, gold continued to fall after rising, and gold began to return to volatility. In the short term, gold is supported near 3100. If gold falls below the support near 3100 again, then gold shorts will still have an advantage in this war. Overall, the impact of today’s non-agricultural data is expected to be dim. What is more important is the stimulation of the news. However, it may be noted that if gold holds the 3100 mark for a long time, then gold is expected to fluctuate upward above 3100.
Trading idea: short gold near 3115, stop loss 3125, target 3100
The above is purely a sharing of personal views and does not constitute trading advice. Investments are risky and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
What's next?
- EMA 9/21: Clearly broken above and now being tested as support
- Bollinger Bands: Price touched the upper band — possible overbought condition
- Coinbase Premium: +15.56 — rare! Indicates real spot demand
- RSI: 66.12 — approaching overbought territory, suggesting momentum is weakening, but not yet at an extreme level
✅ Positives:
- The price rally is supported by volume (SPX)
- RSI is climbing, but not at extreme levels yet
- EMA 9 > EMA 21 — a strong bullish signal
- Coinbase Premium turned positive for the first time in hours — a significant shift
⚠️ Warning signs:
- SPX is overheated on RSI — potential short-term profit-taking or pullback ahead
- Price is above the upper Bollinger Band — often followed by a correction
- ETH hasn't caught up with the momentum — potential divergence risk
We’re currently seeing a genuine momentum, not just manipulation — but it’s already entering a potential profit-taking or pause zone.
If the next candle prints a long upper wick and volume drops, a pullback is likely.
Has the gold tariff peaked?The 4H cycle failed to open upward. According to the general rule, there is a certain probability of a downward kill. The watershed below is still 3100. Only if it falls below this position can it gradually turn to short. At the same time, the current volatility is very large, and any fluctuation starts at ten points. It is recommended to reduce the position to trade; the current long structure of gold has not changed. The key support watershed below is still 3100. Above 3100, the strong bullish idea remains unchanged. Short-term operations rely on 3100 for defense, and enter the market near 3116 to gradually look up. Focus on the strength of the European session. If the European session rebounds and does not break the high, then short the US session at highs, and pay attention to the resistance of the 3148-50 area above.
Today's gold short-term operation ideas suggest that rebounding should be the main focus, and callbacks should be supplemented by longs. The upper short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3148-3150, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3100-3110 first-line support.
Short order strategy
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3148-3150, stop loss 6 points, target around 3135-3125, and look at 3115 if it breaks;
Long order strategy
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3115-3118, stop loss 6 points, target around 3130-3140, and look at 3150 if it breaks;
BTC/USD 30Min PairMY looking at a potential short-term trade setup for Bitcoin:
Buy Entry: $84,500
Target: $87,000
Potential Gain: $2,500 per BTC (~2.96%)
Make sure to consider:
Stop Loss: Important to define—perhaps around $83,000 to manage risk?
Volume/Trend Confirmation: Is price action supporting upward momentum?
News/Events: Check if any macro or crypto-specific events could impact price soon.
Want help with chart analysis or setting up a full trade plan?