Get started

Trend Analysis

Is the uptrend complete? Will there be a pullback?On the last trading day of this week, gold prices soared, rising nearly $56, driven by the non-farm payroll data. The rally began at 3300 and peaked near 3356. The price has now retreated slightly, fluctuating around 3345. The current uptrend has repeatedly tested the resistance level near 3355 but has failed to break through. The RSI indicator hovered around 76.8, indicating a gradual flattening of the upward trend. The 3355 high is likely the end of this uptrend. As this is the last day of a major data week, Quaid believes the current uptrend is complete. Consider a light short position around 3350-3355. The current low has yet to be confirmed, and the pullback is likely to end around 3335. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the price will remain within the upward channel with slight fluctuations on the last trading day of the week.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
OP Long Position Hi traders, Turning our attention to OceanPal Inc. (OP), we can observe an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern forming over the past few weeks, signaling a potential bullish reversal. OceanPal Inc. is a maritime transportation company, specializing in the transportation of dry bulk cargoes worldwide. The company operates a modern fleet and has a strong presence in the global shipping industry. Despite recent market fluctuations, OceanPal's operational efficiency and strategic positioning suggest robust fundamentals. The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is characterized by three troughs, with the middle trough being the lowest, and the two outer troughs being higher and approximately equal in depth. This pattern often indicates a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. As the stock approaches the neckline of this pattern, a breakout above this level could confirm the bullish reversal. Traders should consider entering a long position upon confirmation of a break above the neckline, anticipating further upward movement in the stock. Take Profit: 3.82 Final Target: 4.31
NASDAQ:OPLong
by vf_investment
2
0721 Impact of Japanese Senate Elections on Yen Exchange Rate Hello traders, 1. I spent the entire weekend following the Japanese Senate elections, as they will determine the fluctuations of the world's largest financing currency—the yen exchange rate. ★ The results are out, and we are currently in scenario two— the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat + Shigeru Ishiba refuses to resign. However, senior figures within the Liberal Democratic Party, such as Taro Aso, have publicly stated that they intend to demand Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation for accountability, increasing the pressure on Ishiba to step down. This means we might see "scenario three"—the USD/JPY exchange rate could potentially break through the 151-155 range. ★ Is this the worst-case scenario? Of course not. The worst-case scenario would be if the "far-right party" that campaigned on the slogan "Japan First" achieved a landslide victory in this election. The most notable winner is a marginal far-right party known as the "Reform Party." The Reform Party originated from a YouTube channel during the pandemic, which spread conspiracy theories about vaccines and "global elite conspiracies." NHK estimates that the Reform Party will win up to 22 seats, whereas three years ago, they had only 1 seat in the Senate and currently have only 3 seats in the House of Representatives. ✔ Let's take a look at this big winner's political proposals—stricter immigration restrictions + opposition to globalism + opposition to radical gender policies + reassessment of decarbonization and vaccine policies + massive tax cuts + increased social welfare spending. This means Japan may implement more "radical tax cuts" combined with aggressive economic stimulus through quantitative easing, leading to a more severe depreciation of the yen, increasing the likelihood of the USD/JPY exchange rate rising to the 160 range. ★ What are the risks of a sharp depreciation of the yen? For Asia, the depreciation of the yen typically drags down other Asian currencies collectively, especially under U.S. tariff pressures, where Asian currencies are already under devaluation pressure. A strong depreciation of the yen would mean Japan is taking other Asian countries along with it off a cliff. We need to pay attention to the "passive" depreciation of the renminbi. Asia will feel the pain, but Europe and the U.S. will also suffer. Theoretically, if the USD/JPY exchange rate surges (indicating a sharp depreciation of the yen), it is very advantageous for arbitrage trading with leverage (because the yen becomes cheaper). However, when the yen experiences a severe depreciation, the situation changes. Let me give you a classic example: After Shinzo Abe returned to power at the end of 2012, he launched the "three arrows" economic policy: unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy + fiscal stimulus + structural reform = artificially lowering the yen exchange rate to stimulate exports (the clear goal was to increase the USD/JPY exchange rate) = rapid depreciation of the yen (from 80 in 2012 to 125 in 2015). So what happened then? — A large number of Japanese institutions sold off U.S. bonds, European bonds, and REITs to cash out. The reason is simple: ✔ Japanese financial institutions (such as GPIF, insurance companies, and banks) hold a large amount of dollar/euro assets. When the yen depreciates, the yen-denominated market value of these foreign currency assets skyrockets. Selling off overseas assets is equivalent to cashing out foreign exchange gains in advance. ✔ The proportion of foreign currency assets is too high → must rebalance. Due to the yen depreciation, a large institution that originally allocated 20% of its total assets to foreign currency assets might see that proportion swell to 30% or 40%. This triggers asset allocation restrictions within pension and insurance funds (ALM principles), necessitating the sale of overseas assets and reallocation to yen-denominated assets. ✔ The yen depreciation phase is usually accompanied by an expansion of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. If Japanese institutions hedge their dollar assets, the hedging costs become very high (the costs of hedging through FX swaps and forwards rise), so they must also sell off some assets to reduce exposure. Therefore, in 2013, there was a collective sell-off of U.S. and European bonds. Technically: Daily chart, there is a possible Crab Harmonic Pattern. The Crab Harmonic Pattern From the chart, we can see: The upward move from A to B is labeled as 0.762, which falls within the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.618-0.786 for the A-B leg of the Crab pattern. The downward move from B to C is labeled as 0.668, which also falls within the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.382-0.886 for the B-C leg of the Crab pattern. The upward move from C to D is labeled as 1.112, which corresponds to the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.13-1.272 for the C-D leg of the Crab pattern. Based on these Fibonacci ratio relationships, we can identify this price action pattern as a typical Crab harmonic pattern. This type of pattern often suggests that the price may be about to reverse. On the left 4H chart, the broken trendline is suggesting a new possible downtrend to begin . Make a good use of those support positions, sellers of UJ could find a great trade deal. Follow me to get more update on UJ. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
2
APT - HUGE POTENTIAL (130+% SPOT) You probably forgot about this altcoin but it is justified. Downtrend since 2023 and lower highs, lower lows but.... If we look more close and use tool fixed price volume we can see that price is above VAL (Value area low), we had break through but price returns..Also good reaction of FVG (Fair value gap). Now, we can try buy this coin and have some stop lose. Price is in range 172 days and all people forget abut this coin. Analysis is right only if we close daily candlestick about 6$. Stop lose can be below 4.4$ which is 6-7% of losing. Second entry is monthly level at 3.3 and stop lose should be below the lowest low 3$. For me is great opportunity because risk reward is excellent. Ivan
COINBASE:APTUSDLong
by learnfromfailure
EURCHF – Bearish Channel Holds Firm, CHF Strength Set to ResumeEURCHF just tapped into the descending channel resistance again and is showing signs of rejecting. I'm expecting a bearish continuation here, especially given the strong CHF momentum recently, supported by safe-haven flows and Swiss inflation stability. If the pair fails to break above 0.9340, I’m watching for a downside push back toward 0.9270–0.9265, completing another leg within the structure. 🔍 Technical Setup (4H): Channel Structure: EURCHF remains firmly within a downward-sloping parallel channel since mid-June. Resistance Rejection: Price recently tested upper channel resistance (~0.9335–0.9340 zone), aligning with trendline rejection. Target Support: 0.9270–0.9265 (channel base and key horizontal level). Confluence: CHFJPY overlay (pink line) is rising again, suggesting renewed CHF strength—this usually weighs on EURCHF. 💡 Fundamental Insight: EUR Side: ECB officials remain cautious, but with recent EU data showing weaker growth (especially PMIs and sentiment), euro upside is capped. The ECB is likely to pause further tightening, while other central banks like SNB remain firm on inflation risks. CHF Strength: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) still leans hawkish, with stable inflation giving room to hold rates steady or tighten if needed. CHF benefits from risk-off flows amid global tariff headlines, China slowdown, and Middle East tensions. Rising CHFJPY = clear CHF strength across the board. ⚠️ Risks: If eurozone data surprises to the upside (e.g., inflation rebounds), EURCHF could break out of the channel. A sudden drop in geopolitical tension or strong risk-on rally could weaken CHF as safe-haven demand falls. SNB jawboning or FX intervention is always a wildcard. 🧭 Summary: I’m bearish on EURCHF while it respects this well-defined descending channel. The technicals show consistent lower highs and lower lows, while the fundamentals continue to support CHF strength due to risk aversion, stable inflation, and a resilient SNB. My short bias is valid as long as price remains below 0.9340, with downside targets at 0.9270–0.9265. CHFJPY rising confirms franc leadership across FX markets, and EURCHF is likely a lagger following broader CHF strength.
Short
by ultreosforex
8
Trading the Pullback on EURJPY My Trade PlanThe EURJPY is clearly in a strong bullish trend 📈, as shown by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the 1H timeframe ⏱️. In this video, I’m looking to capitalize on a pullback as a potential buy opportunity 🎯. We dive into my entry strategy, explore how to align with the prevailing trend, and break down key concepts such as price action, market structure, and smart pullback zones 🧠📊. ⚠️ As always, this is for educational purposes only — not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
2
Technical Analysis: GBP/CHF (British Pound / Swiss Franc)Timeframe: Hourly (H1) – *Data as of Aug 01, 2025, 14:33 UTC+4* Source: OANDA via TradingView 1. Key Price Levels Current Price (C): 1.07357 (+0.09% from previous close). High/Low (H/L): 1.07386 / 1.07308 (narrow range, indicating consolidation). Resistance Levels: R1: 1.07514 (near-term resistance). R2: 1.08208 (stronger resistance). Pivot Point (P): 1.07723 (intraday benchmark). 2. Price Action & Trends Short-Term Trend: Slightly bullish (+0.09% gain), but trading near the day’s low (1.07308). Volatility: Low (tight range between 1.07308–1.07386). Support Zone: 1.07200–1.07335 (critical for bearish reversals). 3. Technical Indicators (Implied) Pivot Points (PVC): Price is below the pivot (1.07723), suggesting bearish pressure unless it breaks above. Resistance/Support: Bulls need to push above R1 (1.07514) to target R2 (1.08208). Bears aim for S1 (1.07335) or lower (1.07200). 4. Trading Signals Bullish Scenario: Break above 1.07514 (R1) could signal upward momentum toward 1.07723 (Pivot). Bearish Scenario: Drop below 1.07308 (today’s low) may extend losses to 1.07200. Neutral Zone: Price oscillating between 1.07308–1.07386 suggests indecision. 5. Risk Management Stop-Loss (S/L): Below 1.07200 for longs; above 1.07514 for shorts. Take-Profit (T/P): Longs: 1.07723 (Pivot) or 1.08000 (psychological level). Shorts: 1.07200 or 1.07000. 6. Conclusion Current Bias: Neutral-to-slightly bullish, but lacks strong momentum. Watch For: Breakout from the 1.07308–1.07514 range for directional clarity. Caution: Low volatility may lead to false breakouts; confirm with volume/RSI if available. Recommendation: Wait for a confirmed breakout with volume before entering trades.
Long
by Tdawly_Official