Trend Analysis
BITCOIN Rejected (so far) where it absolutely SHOULDN'T!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the top of the Channel Down pattern, which as we've discussed numerous times, is most likely on the long-term a Bull Flag technically. Still, this early test has so far turned into a rejection.
Early on to tell as the price remains above even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but if it breaks above the closes a 1D candle above the top of the pattern, we expect it to immediately target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at 119500. We have analyzed of course why on the long-term the Target is at least $150k, but this is a shorter term analysis. Notice also how the 1D RSI has already broken above its Lower Highs trend-line.
As long as the price remains rejected within the Channel Down, it is possible to look for support on the 100000 level again, where this time it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) in an attempt to 'attract' the last batch of buyers.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin BTC price analysis BTC.D and events calendar for JulyToday is the last day of the month and the last day of the second quarter, so there may be some volatility in the markets between 🐂 VS 🐻
💰 The CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart shows an interesting picture — the price has reached the upper limit of the consolidation channel, and now:
1️⃣ The scenario with an upward breakout is quite clear: a breakout from the channel upward and consolidation above $108-110k= a move to $125k during July.
2️⃣ A correction to $99k will mean that buyers have taken control of the OKX:BTCUSDT price, preventing it from updating its lows. This will be a clear signal to buy, because further growth is inevitable.
3️⃣ A deep correction to $91,660 (filling the GAP that formed on the CME BTC chart) or slightly lower. This is the last “unclosed” GAP, which, according to TA rules, should be filled for a full-fledged growth trend to begin.
So which scenario is closer to your heart, which one do you believe in?
Or write your version of events in the comments.
Interesting observations to think about:
◆ Over the past two weeks, the inflow of funds to #BTCETF has exceeded $5 billion, but the price of #BTCUSD on CEX exchanges has not been able to “break out” upward. Is this just ETF "property of numbers", or are spot #Bitcoin sales that strong?
◆ The BTC.D indicator has reached a critical level of 66%, and it will be interesting to see whether it will give altcoins some breathing room next month.
(If there are a lot of likes and comments under the idea, we will additionally describe our thoughts on BTC.D and USDT.D.)
◆ SP 500, by the way, has updated its highs, and the last few months on the stock market are very similar to the beginning and middle of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
◆ And in principle, July promises to be very eventful:
👉 By July 9, Trump is expected to make a statement regarding the tariff wars with the rest of the world, which he has put on hold.
👉 July 18 marks the beginning of Mercury retrograde, which “influences” people's behavior and ‘superstitions’ and forces them to be “more cautious” when making trading decisions (and trading bots don't care about emotions and beliefs)
👉 And on July 30, there will be a FOMC meeting, where Mr. Powell may announce a rate cut, as the US is in a recession, which is time to acknowledge.
If we have forgotten anything, please add it in the comments!
One Last Push Before It’s Over?Total Market Cap CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL CRYPTOCAP:TOTALES
From a price action perspective, the structure looks very constructive:
• In May 2021, a swing high was formed, which later became a key resistance level.
• In November 2021, we saw a fakeout, confirming the significance of the level.
• Between March and June 2024, there was a clear rejection from this resistance.
• Eventually, price broke through the level and completed a clean retest from above — textbook move.
The bullish structure remains intact and has been reaffirmed once again. With that in mind, a new ATH on Total Market Cap feels like just a matter of time. The 3.73T+ level is likely to be taken out soon.
From a volume distribution perspective, the market is currently trading near the upper VWAP band — between +1σ and +2σ, yet shows no signs of overheating. Historically, the extreme zone is marked by +3σ, which currently sits around $4.6 trillion.
Wave Structure
The impulsive wave that began in 2022 appears to be nearing its completion. Given the price action and internal structure, it is highly likely that the final fifth wave is forming as an ending diagonal.
The $4.6–5 trillion zone stands out as a potential market top.
Volume behavior is key here:
We’re seeing notable vertical volume spikes in the current phase.
Horizontal volume (volume profile) reveals a strong cluster and point of control (POC) — a clear sign of distribution.
This pattern often signals the final stage of a bull cycle and precedes a reversal. The question is when, not if.
That said, the trend remains bullish for now. Notably, we don't yet observe strong RSI divergences on major timeframes, which supports the case for a continued push higher in the short term.
Bitcoin Price Analysis! What's Next?Bitcoin Price Analysis! What's Next?
From our last analysis, Bitcoin increased from 107K to 108.5K
The price reached the limits of the pattern so far making everything more difficult because it increased, but with very low volume.
This time, BTC added some more data.
You may watch the analysis for further details
Thank you!
Gold 30 Min Engaged ( Dual Entry's Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸 Bullish Reversal : 3309
Volume Poc + Value
🩸 Bearish Reversal : 3284
Volume Poc + Value
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad start to the week with the path working well, we got the swoop we wanted and the opportunity for the long presented itself. We've completed quite a few of the bias targets as well as the red box targets, so now, with it being the last trading day of the month and quarter and tomorrow being the first, we'll take a back seat.
Support stands at the 3275 level with resistance still at 3404-6. Higher box is defence so we'll stick with it and see if it works how we intended.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 3250 with targets above 3278✅, 3285✅, 3297 and above that 3306
Bearish below 3250 with targets below 3240, 3232, 3220 and below that 3212
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3275 for 3279✅, 3285✅, 3289✅ and 3306 in extension of the move
Break below 3260 for 3255, 3251, 3240 and 3235 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
DeGRAM | GOLD under the resistance area📊 Technical Analysis
● Price broke the long-standing rising-channel floor, then formed a clean bear flag inside a fresh down-sloping channel; the flag’s ceiling coincides with the 3 300-3 310 supply band.
● Lower-high sequence and confluence of flag top with former support turned resistance favour continuation toward the mid-channel / fib pivot at 3 246, next 3 180.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Friday’s hotter US core-PCE and Fed governor Bowman’s “no cuts in 2025” comment lifted 2-yr yields above 4.80 %, firming the DXY and draining flows from non-yielding gold.
✨ Summary
Sell 3 290-3 305; hold below 3 310 targets 3 246 → 3 180. Short bias void on an H4 close above 3 310.
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Lingrid | BTCUSDT possible Channel Break - Upside Surge The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . BINANCE:BTCUSDT is pulling back slightly after rejecting the descending red trendline near the 108,000 level, while remaining above the breakout zone around 105,000. The structure suggests a potential bullish continuation if the price holds this level and forms a higher low. A successful breakout above 108,000 could ignite a move toward the 111,000 resistance band.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 105,000–105,300
Sell trigger: breakdown below 105,000
Target: 111,000
Buy trigger: breakout and retest above 108,000 with strong momentum
💡 Risks
Failure to hold 105,000 reopens path to 98,700
Bearish rejection at 108,000 could maintain lower high structure
Weak volume breakout may lead to a bull trap under 111,000
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
IBIT: End of June/Beginning of July Weekly idea for IBIT.
BTC and this market as a whole is an interesting character.
The indicies and many other things, such as BTC, AMD etc. are all throwing top signals, specifically mean reverting signals (when using Pairs / Cointegration and Time series).
They have been for the last 1.5 weeks.
These signals have yet to be invalidated, they are only invalidated once they stop signaling or flip to bullish. So we are lingering on a potential for a larger pullback from where we are, and that extends to indicies such as NDX, SPX and BTC itself.
That said, its a bit trickier when we push into extreme greed where the market currently rests.
For IBIT and BTC, the outlook is on the bearish side; however, with some bullish continuation patterns (on the smaller timeframes) that bring us to some more immediate upside into Monday.
The expectation here is a move up to around 61. From there, if we see rejection we should be heading down to around 58.57.
The downside and upside targets are listed in the chart.
Its hard to play the PA in this market because its extreme greed that has a hallmark of random impulse selling and random rug pulls out of nowhere that complete in a day and lead to aggressive gapping up the next day. Its hard to really offer much insight in a safe fashion in this type of market.
However, the general "how its sposta work" is if we break over 61 and hold, we should be heading up to 63 ish range. Vs a 61 rejection or just hitting shy of 61 will bring us down to that 58 zone.
Not advice, its impossible to offer advice in these conditions anyway haha.
Safe trades!
Bitcoin Breakdown? Support Zone & CME Gap in FocusBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ), as anticipated in my previous analysis , attacked the Resistance lines and then resumed its decline. In previous analysis, both Long and Short positions could have been profitable .
Bitcoin is approaching a Support zone($106,800-$105,820) and the CME gap($106,645-$106,295) .
From an Elliott Wave theory perspective , it appears that Bitcoin has finally completed a five-wave impulsive move with the help of an Expanding Ending Diagonal .
I expect Bitcoin to attack the Support zone($106,800-$105,820) after breaking the lower line of the Expanding Ending Diagonal .
Note: To break through the Support zone($106,800-$105,820), Bitcoin may potentially use either a Head and Shoulders pattern or a Bearish Quasimodo formation.
Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance lines, we can expect more pumps.
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $106,249-$105,094
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $109,483-$108,790
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Bitcoin time to sell Fallow the chart conditionBitcoin could expect Bearish Pattern fallowing the 4H time frame price could again decline from resistance the market is also recovering also there catch there support we definitely want to sell resistance and buy supports not the other other way around until we have confirmation Bitcoin price is suggest very burring during summer season I think we can not expect all time high in the next day weeks,
My Bitcoin Trading range is 100K.
XAUUSD I Trade Update Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** XAUUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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AVAX/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The AVAX/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 21.77
2nd Resistance – 24.35
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Bitcoin Weekly & $120,000This weekly Bitcoin chart says it all... Please, allow me to reveal to you what the future holds!
Good evening my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, what a wonderful day.
Only one week ever produced a higher close than the current price. Only once, 19-May, Bitcoin managed to close above $107,000... What happens if Bitcoin closes above $107,000? New all-time high confirmed.
Two days remain for the week to close and we—the bulls—only need to maintain a price of $107,000 or higher to send such a strong bullish signal that everybody will come out and start buying.
The next target on this timeframe is $120,000.
Bitcoin is using EMA13 as support. This level was tested and holds, the same for EMA8. When Bitcoin moved above these levels in April, it produced an advance from $83,000 to $112,000, more than 33%. The price now is $107,000 but instead of recovering from below EMA8/13, BTCUSDT is trading above; this means that the bullish bias is fully confirmed.
The weekly timeframe looks great. We can expect higher prices soon, with growth happening for an extended period of time. Bitcoin is very strong now and this is only the start.
I will continue to share proof that shows the entire Cryptocurrency market going up.
Thank you for reading.
Leave a comment with your questions.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
EURUSD BEARISH REVERSAL At the top 1.1745, we see strong rejection wicks and bearish engulfing candles, hinting at exhaustion of buyers, Market entered sideways consolidation between 1.1680 and 1.1740, Price failed to break out of this range multiple times — forming a range-bound or distribution phase.
The current bullish candle indicates a temporary relief rally after recent bearish pressure, Rejection from 1.1720–1.1740 may send price back to test 1.1690 or lower.
CRCL | Long | Strong Institutional | (June 30, 2025)CRCL | Long | Strong Institutional & Regulatory Tailwinds | (June 30, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
Circle (CRCL) recently pulled back after a massive IPO surge but is showing a strong bounce from key technical levels. With new stablecoin regulations coming and big partnerships, this could be setting up for another move higher.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Around $180 (supported by value area low, VWAP, and Fibonacci levels)
Stop Loss: $148 (Golden Fibonacci zone and recent key support)
TP1: $225
TP2: $265
Final Target: $378
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ CRCL was listed at $31 on June 5 and exploded nearly 700% to highs around $248 before pulling back ~24% on profit-taking and macro rate pressures.
✅ Major fundamental drivers include the GENIUS Act for stablecoin clarity, and big institutional partnerships (Fiserv, PayPal, Mastercard, Shopify, Ripple).
✅ Technical dynamics also show heavy short interest (~45% of volume) and high borrowing costs, which could lead to a strong short squeeze.
❌ Main risks: High valuation concerns (Compass Point targets $205), heavy exposure to interest rate changes, and rising competition in the stablecoin space (USDT, Diem, etc.).
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
I’ll continue monitoring price action near $225 and $265 for partial exits and updates if momentum accelerates or structure changes.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NQ Short (07-01-25)YTD Open level is Blue line below. NAZ up 8% YTD and 40% from YTD low. We may see 8-10% range be the drop zone and retest the YTD Open Level. 22,800 -21,800 has been an extremely low volume 1,000 1 way ride up (not seeing any selling). We should see the sell side show up as NAZ should drop back in the 1,000 soft zone.
4HR YTD Chart below:
OFFICIAL TRUMP 1,244% Target Revealed & Map UpdateI have several questions for you:
1) Did the market break your patience? Are you still holding?
2) How much are you going to take? Will you go for 278% or maybe 1,244%?
TRUMPUSDT has been really uneventful lately and this is good, it means that consolidation is still happening and consolidation is a form of exercise for a trading pair; TRUMPUSDT is building strength.
From a technical analysis perspective, the chart is great, still bullish continues bullish; looks good. Because the action continues to happen as a higher low compared to 7-April. 7-April is the market bottom, as long as this level is not challenged or broken we are now in the bullish zone.
The move that peaked in late April is the initial bullish breakout. The higher low 22-June marks the point where the retrace from the initial bullish breakout ends. 22-June can also signal the start of the next upthrust. From here on we will see growth.
Higher lows lead to higher highs. We have a very clear, strong and ecologically sustainable higher low. This means that a higher high comes next.
Here is the tricky, not so tricky part: TRUMPUSDT will grow to $50, $62, beyond $100 and so on, but, not all growth happens in a single wave. Just as TRUMPUSDT moved from $7 to $16 and then stopped, it can move from $9 to $34 and then make another stop, this one short. Then another rise toward $50 and so on. The market never moves straight down but neither straight up. And this gets us to my point. Will you sell when resistance is hit to later buy back lower, or, will you continue waiting until the market top, higher targets?
That's the question you need to answer to maximize profits when the action goes green. If you decide you want to sell the wave, then make sure to prepare to sell when the market is green. What happens is that if you don't sell when green but wanted to take some profits then you will do so when the market is red. In this case you will not be taking out the maximum possible...
Anyway, we have to leave something for another day. TRUMPUSDT will grow, for certain, but it takes time. Patience is key.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTC 30.06.25So far BTC is behaving exactly as expected, i'm just waiting for a valid setup to appear. I would love to see a model 1, which takes out the high and mitigates supply, but i'm also not ignoring a potential model 2. These 2 deviations merge together on a higher time frame, where the range is also valid on, so they can be counted as one. There are many altcoins with similar behavior and USDT/C in potential accumulation. I'm waiting to see confirmations/ invalidations.