Trend Analysis
Gold - Sell inboundGold is looking very promising for another sell off. we are already showing signs that price has intent to move lower with some lower timeframe break of structure.
Just waiting for a manipulation now of the most recent highs put in before price moves lower.
Let's see if we get an entry tonight.
Gold Analysis Bullish Breakout | Trendline & OB Setup📈 Gold Analysis
We are currently seeing price action within a descending channel, testing key support at the M30 OB (Order Block). The price is pushing higher after bouncing off the support level, and the trendlines suggest a potential breakout to the upside.
💡 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 3326
Resistance Zone: 3342
The market is primed for a possible rally, indicated by the upward momentum and price breaking out above the trendline. Watch for confirmation as we approach the liquidity level for further bullish movement.
⚡ Trade Idea: Look for a long entry if price closes above the trendline for a continuation towards the next resistance.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?USD/CHF is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.7950
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.7924
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 0.7986
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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$TIA Breakout Brewing! After months of steady accumulation and LSE:TIA Breakout Brewing!
After months of steady accumulation and holding strong support, #TIA is showing signs of a major trend reversal. Double-digit targets look highly likely in the coming months if momentum continues. 🚀
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#Bitcoin #altcoin #btc #memecoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC NYSE:FET GETTEX:WOO CRYPTOCAP:INJ GETTEX:QNT $tsuka $azero NEWCONNECT:MLT EURONEXT:RNDR LSE:ROSE BIST:LINK CRYPTOCAP:XRP CRYPTOCAP:PEPE #iran #qatar #usa #IsraelIran
4 HOUR CONFIRMATION- USDCAD ENTRY UPDATEPrice tapped in our Weekly Demand ideal 👌 for long buys.
Previously i anticipated a trend shift H4 as guide , cmp price just break our int previous high meaning change a in trend as we anticipated
Now waiting for price to drop to our int demand then we rise or the breaker block can hold - major reactions
ATOM 4H – Potential Wave 3 Impulse SetupAfter a completed 5-wave impulse (likely Wave 1), followed by a corrective Wave 2, ATOM appears to be setting up for a potential Wave 3 to the upside based on Elliott Wave Theory.
This setup aligns with the idea of Wave 3 being typically the strongest and most extended move in the cycle.
📍Entry Zone: $3.90 – $4.30
🎯Take Profit (TP): $6.463
🛑Stop Loss (SL): $3.70
🌀Risk-Reward: Approx. 4:1
Gold Analysis – Multi-Timeframe OutlookOn the Monthly timeframe, we’ve now seen a clear triple wick rejection, signaling potential downside momentum. After multiple failed attempts to break above the $3,400 level, price action has begun to retrace.
Looking at the 1H timeframe, we’ve broken below the upward trendline, and price continues to push lower. This reinforces the bearish sentiment for now.
That said, if we see a break and close above $3,330, I’ll be watching for a potential retest of the previous trendline near the $3,364 level. Conversely, a break below $3,283 could open the door for further downside toward the $3,247 level.
Heading into Friday, with no significant USD news on the calendar, I’m expecting low volatility and potential sideways movement.
Trade Ideas:
• Sell zone: $3,325 – $3,330
• Buy zone: $3,308 – $3,313
As always, risk management is key — only risk 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Good luck and stay disciplined!
$MARA at Resistance!NASDAQ:MARA continues its rally and has come into the High Volume Node resistance target and R2 daily pivot.
Daily 200EMA was tested as support after price smashed through. I expect continuation to the upside $24 target at the R5 daily pivot after some consolidation at this resistance.
Analysis is invalidated way below wave 2 at $13
Safe trading
EURJPY Hits Supply | Pullback Is ComingPrice has entered the daily supply zone (red area) between 170.80 and 171.80, showing immediate rejection with a long upper wick — a signal of potential short-term bearish reaction.
The RSI is turning lower, indicating loss of momentum, although it hasn’t reached extreme levels yet.
The current map suggests a technical pullback toward the 169.40–168.50 zone (FVG + dynamic support) before any potential bullish continuation toward 174+.
The overall structure remains bullish, but a correction looks likely due to technical exhaustion and retail positioning.
📊 2. COT Report (JPY Futures – as of 2025-07-01)
Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced long positions on the JPY by -7,779 contracts, and also slightly trimmed shorts → clear sign of position reduction.
Net positioning remains strongly negative (JPY weakness), but it's starting to recover slightly.
Commercials added both longs (+2,830) and shorts (+5,977), indicating indecision but growing interest.
Open interest slightly decreased (–516), though it remains elevated.
👉 The market has not yet reversed, but the JPY downtrend may be approaching exhaustion.
🧠 3. Retail Sentiment
86% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY — a strong contrarian bullish signal.
Average retail short entry: 166.27, while current price is 171.55 → retail traders are trapped and under pressure.
A short squeeze is likely underway or already completed, increasing the risk of a technical correction after distribution.
📅 4. Seasonality
July is historically weak for EUR/JPY:
20Y: -0.35
15Y: -0.49
10Y: -0.18
August tends to be even worse from a seasonal perspective.
This supports the idea of a potential pullback in the coming days or weeks.
Trading Conclusion
Current Bias: Short-term Neutral–Bearish, Medium-term Bullish.
✳️ Potential pullback from 172.30 toward 169.40–168.50
🎯 If price holds and builds clean bullish structure, expect continuation toward 174.00–175.00
❌ Invalidation on daily close below 167.80
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May.
The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick.
Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels.
A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone.
A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken.
📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index)
Euro FX
Net long: +15,334
Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence.
Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish.
USD Index
Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net.
Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts.
→ USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD.
🧠 Retail Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal.
However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term.
📅 Seasonality
July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages.
However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025).
Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term.
🧩 Conclusion
Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal.
Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels.
USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
$ETHBTC: Correction is over?Ethereum vs Bitcoin shows that the strong surge that kicked off during May might not be a one off...
If you take a look at monthly BITSTAMP:ETHUSD and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , both charts show a bullish trend that is active until EOY at least (maybe even during the first half of the whole of 2026 depending on how you look at it). But lately, it became clear that the pivot in the EF foundation, capitulation of Bankless who used to be cheerleaders for ETH at all times and started cozying up to Solana people at the bottom, and the insane level of hatred it accumulated from everyone in Crypto circles were the sign of a bottom signal.
This made sense to me as the monthly down trend active in BINANCE:ETHBTC was coming to an end while price retested the level where it had turned bullish during 2016-2017, which led to the most massive 'Alt season' ever which made CT coin the term in hindsight after, something imbued in the crypto trader genome at this point. It was bound to be a signifcant level and indeed price bottomed very close to it in a climactic manner.
Recently, crypto endured a correction manifested in a daily timeframe down trend in most coins, but that trend is turning around once more it seems. The market has favored coins that have profitable protocolos/dapps since the bottom in BINANCE:ETHBTC and BITSTAMP:ETHUSD , specially those returning $ to token holders like GETTEX:HYPE , CRYPTOCAP:ETHFI , and others that will or might do so ( CRYPTOCAP:AAVE , BME:UNI , to name a few).
If you were sidelined you had and still have a decent chance to reposition into crypto for the next long term bullish swing.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ZTS Investment 1D Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ volumed expanding T2
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ volumed Sp
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
Monthly trend
"+ long impulse
+ ICE level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ volumed 2Sp
+ weak test?"
Yearly trend
"+ long impulse
- correction"
Gold - This is the official top!Gold - TVC:GOLD - might top out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Since Gold confirmed its rounding bottom in 2019 it rallied more than +200%. Especially the recent push higher has been quite aggressive, squeezing all bears. But now Gold is somehow unable to create new all time highs, which could constitute the a top formation.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $3.000
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)