SILVER XAGUSD TO 40$ IN YEAR 2025 !!!HELLO TRADERS
As I can see silver is trading in uptrend channel and after a new ATH its retracing to the broken resistance zone which can be a support for silver NFP ahead and geopolitical bad conditions with a weak $ us elections impact on economy and bricks trading in 2025 will can make some new historically high in precious metals have a look on GOLD and other commodities all are make huge moves so it will be a great opportunity for Silver traders that they can join the next bull run from these given zone till design TP friends its just an trade idea with technical and fundamental view share Ur thoughts on it we appreciate Ur support and love Stay Tuned for more updates
Trend Analysis
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Happy Friday. I have marked my area of interest on the chart. This is the 1st day of a new month, and a Friday so I am not looking to take a trade until next week. Wishing everyone a profitable day. Shout out to Big G. Let's see how the overnight sessions go. I will check back for the Pre NY volume in about 6 hours from now. Be well and trade the trend.
XAUUSD, 15-MINUTE TIMEFRAME CHART XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
General outlook
XAUUSD has been under selling pressure within the last day. The pair moved up to the support level of 2,738.00.
Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a buy order at 2,752.
Set your stop loss at 2,745 below the previous low ($6.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,772 ($20.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
avax short or long swing trade awaiting conformationi've drawn out the s/r of the high timeframes and gave them a label, as u probably know, high timeframes s/r always give a stronger reaction, also the thinner yellow lines are the smaller TF s/r, so i suggest to closely watch this setup and make ur trade accordingly to the conformation the market gives us, tp's are the yellow lines
What Should You Do if You Hold Long Positions Between 2770-2750?Today, influenced by negative data, gold experienced a significant drop. After completing the take profit on my short positions, I entered long trades. I believe many of you are in a similar situation, holding long positions in the 2767-2730 range, which has led to our accounts being in a trapped state.
However, after such a large decline, a market rebound is inevitable. As long as we hold our positions firmly, we can at least expect a rebound to around 2760. Additionally, tomorrow's NFP data and unemployment rate will be released, along with several other minor data points that will certainly contribute to increased market volatility.
If the price rebounds to around 2760 before the data is published, then under negative data conditions, it is likely to drop again. However, if the price does not rebound to this level, gold will not drop too much under negative data, with 2721-2712 being an acceptable range.
In this context, next week's trading will definitely focus on long positions. So, if your orders are also in a trapped state, there’s no need to worry too much. The market always has its ups and downs; stay confident and seize the opportunities for a rebound. In the end, we will achieve better results.
What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It?What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern, and How Can You Trade It?
The parabolic arc pattern is a significant formation in technical analysis, showcasing rapid, exponential price movements that signal significant bullish momentum followed by sharp reversals. This article delves into identifying, trading, and managing the risks associated with parabolic arcs.
Understanding the Parabolic Arc Pattern
The parabolic arc or parabolic curve is a technical chart pattern that signals a potential reversal. It is characterised by a steep, exponential rise in asset prices, followed by a sharp decline.
Characteristics of the Parabolic Arc Pattern
- Gradual Start: Initially, prices rise slowly and steadily.
- Acceleration Phase: The price movement becomes more rapid, often driven by increasing speculation and market excitement.
- Exhaustion Phase: Prices reach a peak where the upward momentum cannot be maintained, leading to a sharp downturn.
This pattern can be seen across various markets, including stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies*, and commodities. It often occurs during speculative bubbles when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic. The pattern's unique shape makes it identifiable, but it requires careful analysis to distinguish it from other formations.
The parabolic arc chart pattern has been observed in numerous historical market events. Notable examples include the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the Bitcoin surge in 2017. However, they can occur across all timeframes. If you find a parabolic curve on a low timeframe, it may look like a long bullish candle, typically closing near the highs, on a higher timeframe.
The parabolic arc trading pattern is unique in that, unlike the head and shoulders or double top patterns, which have more symmetrical and predictable formations, the parabolic arc is asymmetrical with a steeper rise and a sudden drop. This distinct shape can offer valuable insights into market psychology and potential future movements.
To identify your own parabolic arc chart patterns, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore a wide range of markets and trading tools.
The Psychology Behind the Parabolic Arc Pattern
The parabolic arc pattern is heavily influenced by market psychology, primarily driven by two emotional extremes: greed and fear. In the initial stages of the pattern, optimism and speculation dominate, causing prices to rise rapidly. This is often fueled by Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), where traders rush to buy, believing the price will continue to soar indefinitely.
As prices climb steeply, the psychological effect intensifies, leading to more aggressive buying. This phase is characterised by euphoria, where rational analysis takes a back seat to the prevailing bullish sentiment. Investors and traders, seeing rapid gains, are convinced the rally is unbreakable, which propels prices even higher.
Along the way, some traders will begin to take potential returns while others will enter short positions. This creates pullbacks or ranges within the bullish trend, sometimes called ‘bases,’ that move in a stair-stepping fashion. Generally speaking, there are often three or four bases in a parabolic trend, though there can be fewer or more. The break in the uptrend often prompts a new wave of euphoric buying, leading to another surge higher.
However, this fast growth is unsustainable. Eventually, it reaches a tipping point where the exhaustion phase kicks in as early investors start to take potential returns, leading to a shift in sentiment. Fear sets in as prices begin to reverse sharply.
The same emotional drivers that fueled the ascent—greed and FOMO—now contribute to panic selling and rapid price declines. In the same way a positive feedback loop drives euphoric buying, this negative feedback loop can cause traders to scramble for the exit door and prompt a sharp reversal almost as steep or steeper as the initial ascent.
Identifying the Parabolic Arc Pattern
Identifying the parabolic arc pattern in trading involves recognising a distinct, exponentially rising price trajectory. This pattern typically follows a period of sideways accumulation, where prices move horizontally with minimal fluctuation. The transition from this phase to a parabolic rise marks the start of the pattern.
Key Characteristics
A curved line can be drawn connecting the successive higher lows of the price action. This line's slope increases at an almost exponential rate, visually representing the accelerating price movement. The steepening of this curve is a hallmark of the parabolic arc, indicating increasing buying momentum.
Volume Analysis
Volume can play a critical role in identifying and confirming the parabolic arc pattern. As prices begin their rapid ascent, trading volume often surges, reflecting heightened market interest and speculative buying. The constant increase in volume is crucial for validating the strength and sustainability of the pattern. A significant rise in volume during the parabolic phase suggests strong participation from traders, further driving prices upward.
Technical Indicators
The Parabolic SAR indicator is a valuable tool for identifying parabolic arc patterns. This indicator places dots above or below the price, signalling potential reversal points. During a parabolic rise, the Parabolic SAR dots will trail below the price, confirming the uptrend. While short-term corrections in the parabolic ascent will plot dots above the price, there will typically be fewer dots vs those below the price.
As the pattern approaches its peak and the price movement starts to decelerate, dots will also begin to appear above the price, indicating a potential correction. However, while there may have been only a few dots above the price during the parabolic movement, there will likely be a greater number of dots above the price as the trend begins to cool, as seen in the chart above.
It’s important to note that this can be a visual cue that the parabolic trend is ending, but the lagging nature of the Parabolic SAR indicator means that it comes with a significant delay. It’s best used as confirmation of a parabolic trend or reversal rather than a sole indicator of a parabolic ascent.
Trading the Parabolic Curve Chart Pattern
The parabolic curve chart pattern is a powerful yet risky formation. As buyers are in complete control, leading to a strong bullish trend, it’s unclear when the trend reverses as traditional momentum indicators like RSI can indicate overbought conditions, often giving false signals.
A parabolic curve trading strategy involves two main focal points: buying the uptrend and shorting the reversal.
Buying the Uptrend
Trading the uptrend of a parabolic arc can be highly rewarding, but it's also fraught with risk. The bullish trend is strong, and buyers dominate the market, making it challenging to determine an optimal entry point. Therefore, traders often use shorter timeframes. Typically, the risk-reward payoff might not be favourable as traders are effectively buying high with the aim of selling higher. According to the theory, it’s best to avoid entering trades when the ascent is near vertical due to the high probability of a sharp reversal.
This is a shorter timeframe of the Carvana stock.
Early Entry Points
Traders often look to get involved in the early stages of the parabolic arc, typically after a breakout from a sideways accumulation phase. During this phase, the price may follow a stair-stepping pattern, making it more probable the uptrend will continue.
Waiting for a Pullback
Another strategy involves waiting for a pullback in the strong trend. Traders might look for such signals as the price reaching a previous resistance point that now acts as support or the RSI on a lower timeframe showing oversold conditions. Setting a buy stop at the high of the pullback with a stop loss below the low allows traders to participate in the breakout and subsequent legs higher.
Taking Profits
Taking profits during a parabolic arc can be challenging. Traders could scale out, closing portions of their position at set intervals or risk-reward ratios. Another method is using significant resistance areas or round numbers as targets. Additionally, trailing a stop below the lows that form along the way can help in capturing gains while potentially protecting against a sudden reversal.
Shorting the Reversal
Shorting a parabolic arc requires waiting for clear signs that the trend is reversing. This approach can be more effective but also demands precision and patience.
Identifying Reversal Signals
Key signals for a trend reversal include the price beginning to move near-vertically before closing below the parabolic curve trendline. Other indicators are long bearish wicks, gaps down (mostly in the case of a parabolic stock pattern), and lower lows being created.
Monitoring market sentiment can also provide clues; for instance, Alternative.me’s crypto* fear and greed index and CNN's stock fear and greed index can indicate an impending reversal in these assets when they show extreme greed. However, a close outside the curve’s trendline is ultimately seen as the key signal.
Once traders suspect a reversal, they typically enter a short position with a market order, setting a stop loss above the recent high.
Taking Profits
According to theory, profit-taking strategies for short positions include targeting significant support areas that previously acted as resistance. Fibonacci retracement levels, typically the 0.382 to 0.786 levels, are commonly used for setting profit targets. Specifically, parabolic ascents usually precede a sharp reversal, meaning they often correct beyond 0.5 (i.e., a 50% correction), falling between 0.618 and 0.786. Similar to long positions, trailing the stop may help capture more of the downward move.
Challenges and Risks Associated with Parabolic Curve Trading
Trading parabolic curves comes with significant challenges and risks. The primary risk is the high probability of a sharp reversal, as the pattern's near-vertical ascent is unsustainable. This can lead to substantial losses if traders enter the market late or fail to manage their risk properly.
Volatility
Parabolic arcs are marked by extreme volatility. Rapid price increases can be followed by equally swift declines, making it difficult for traders to react timely. This volatility can lead to significant slippage, where orders are executed at prices different from those expected, especially if the catalyst is a notable news event.
False Signals
Indicators like the RSI, Stochastic, and MACD can signal overbought conditions prematurely. In a parabolic trend, these false signals can mislead traders into exiting positions too early or entering short trades too soon.
Psychological Factors
The intense fear of missing out (FOMO) can drive irrational buying, inflating the asset price to unsustainable levels. Conversely, panic selling during the reversal can exacerbate losses. Managing emotions and maintaining discipline is crucial but challenging during such volatile phases.
Risk Management
Effective risk management is essential but difficult to implement in real-time. Setting appropriate stop-loss orders and profit targets can be tricky due to the rapid price movements. However, it’s important to predetermine an exit strategy and stick to it.
The Bottom Line
Understanding and trading the parabolic arc can offer substantial opportunities, but this pattern also comes with significant risks. By recognising the pattern early and employing effective strategies, traders can potentially enhance their trading performance. For a reliable trading experience, consider opening an FXOpen account, where you can access advanced tools and resources to navigate the complexities of parabolic arc trading.
FAQs
What Is a Parabolic Arc Pattern in Trading?
A parabolic arc is a chart pattern characterised by a rapid, accelerating price movement that forms a parabolic shape on a chart. This pattern typically indicates strong bullish momentum followed by a sharp reversal. The steep ascent often results from speculative buying, driven by investor enthusiasm or fear of missing out (FOMO).
How to Trade Parabolic Arcs?
Trading parabolic arcs involves two main strategies: buying the uptrend early and shorting the reversal. Traders look for early signs of the pattern forming after a sideways accumulation phase and avoid entering when the ascent is near vertical. Shorting typically occurs when clear reversal signals appear, such as a break below the parabolic trendline or significant bearish indicators.
What Is a Parabolic Arc Stock Pattern?
A parabolic arc stock pattern is a specific formation observed in stock charts where the stock price rises steeply, forming a parabolic shape. This pattern often results from intense speculative buying and is followed by a dramatic price correction. It's common in high-momentum stocks and reflects significant shifts in market sentiment.
How to Use Parabolic SAR in Forex Trading?
The Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) is used in forex trading to identify potential reversals in the market. It places dots above or below the price to signal the direction of the trend. Traders use it to set trailing stop-losses and identify entry or exit points during strong trends.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Euro Declines Slightly - What Direction for Investors?Hello everyone,
Today, the Euro/USD exchange rate is recorded at approximately 1.05 USD for each Euro. On this day, the exchange rate has seen a slight decline of about 0.09% compared to the previous trading session.
The ECB has maintained a tight monetary policy to combat inflation, but I believe the bank may adjust its policy if economic data does not show positive trends. This creates pressure on the Euro. Additionally, recent economic data from the Eurozone indicates a sluggish recovery, particularly in the manufacturing and services sectors. This has diminished investors' confidence in the recovery potential of the European economy.
In the near future, the fluctuations in the Euro exchange rate may depend on new policies from the ECB and the economic developments in Europe. If the USD strengthens, the Euro will face downward pressure in the upcoming period.
USD/CAD Bearish CorrectionKey 4HR Resistance Coming up. Expecting up to a .010536 correction before pushing through 1.39500. Bear Divergency presenting itself on RSI. Expecting correction to take place. Will enter trade at break of rising wedge pattern. Will not think trade is gone if liquidity grab pushes price above the wedge.
MCD eyes on $301.51 above, 285.59 below: E-coli fallout rangeFollowup to my previous long and exit calls (click).
MCD got some bad news with an e-coli event.
The immediate drop has bounced to Genesis fib.
Just below is a Golden Covid fib for some support.
$ 301.51 is the immediate hurdle.
$ 298.47 could offer some support.
$ 285.39 below is now crucial support.
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Good thing we exited MCD recently:
And bought some Wendy's:
With Pepsi to wash it down:
And that's probably about it for fast food binge.
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BTC/USDT.P UpdateIf you haven't already, you might want to take advantage of this retrace to start building towards BTC ath breakout that is most likely coming in the near future. Here are some great DCA points you can take advantage of if that is what you would like to do. This is what I'm doing 😄
Trade safely, and remember to play on both sides! @Nate Alert
EURUSD SELL ANALYSIS DOUBLE TOP PATTERN Here on Eurusd price form double top and is likely to fall as the price has reached a certain resistance level of around 1.08861 so if line 1.08455 break price is likely to move more and a trader should go for LONG and expect profit target of 1.08282 and 1.08055 . Use money management
Fri 1st Nov 2024 GBP/JPY Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/JPY Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce.
Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand.
Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market.
It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year.
Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year.
Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week.
Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant.
Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels.
Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price.
During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below.
Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD
Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2807
→Take Profit 1 2796
↨
→Take Profit 2 2791
BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2752
→Take Profit 1 2763
↨
→Take Profit 2 2768
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2756
↨
→Take Profit 2 2761
EURCAD 4H Outlook | BearishThe EURCAD pair is in a range on daily timeframe between:
- Resistance range around 1.5174
- Support range around 1.48824
On 4H timeframe it has formed a harmonic pattern with a slight divergence in making.
I am biased for a bearish leg.
Trade Plan:
Waiting for break of Point B.
Placed a sell stop order around 1.50813 with stop loss above Daily Resistance 1.51862
META on a new expansion wave to $800.Meta Platforms / META is pulling back again to test the 1day MA50, which has been holding since September 11th.
The pattern is quite similar to the January 2nd 2024 pull back, a bullish break out that also took place after a prolonged consolidation pattern.
The 1week RSI patterns between the two are also fairly similar.
As long as the 1day MA50 holds, we expect META to stay on this expansion wave.
Target $800 which is a +93.92% rise from the bottom, the rise that formed the previosu peak (April 8th 2024).
Previous chart:
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GBPUSD Long Term Analysis (4H Chart)Technical Analysis Summary GBP/USD
TREND ANALYSIS
We have 1 Upward trend in green color (Long Term) that was broken today keeping it up for explanation. The red line is the new downtrend. Be careful trends need to be modified when broken to the new peaks (Downtrend) and lows (Uptrend).
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
We have 1 4h support level that is protected by the 15 min support level that I have mentioned above in the chart if broken we will be seing a big drop for GBP since it is a critical support line.
I use thickness as an indicator of strength of levels (ONLY FOR VISUALS).
White Levels are stop losses or levels and trends that were respected from the past.
Yellow Levels are tighter stop losses and generally will be used after trade is in small profit to start lowering the loss in case trade goes against us.
Good luck everyone, stay safe!
If you need help don't hesitate to send me a message or comment If you find this content beneficial, please don't forget to LIKE and FOLLOW
Trading Involves High Risk Not Financial Advice
USDT Dominance can surprise everyone First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
the signs say that either wave G is not over or we have an X wave, which means that USDT Dominance can drop back to the green box.
If the green box does not support USDT Dominance it could be a deep drop.
Bitcoin's dominance is bullish, so the price of bitcoin can become very bullish in the coming days.
Even the news of the war could not bullish USDT Dominance, which means that the situation of USDT Dominance is bad.
We have shown the new movement of USDT Dominance with an orange arrow on the chart
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You