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Trend Analysis

XAU/USD Step-by-Step Trading Roadmap: A Dynamic Story The market opens, and you’re armed with your tools: the 30-minute chart as your primary guide, with the 5-minute for precision entries, the 1-hour and 4-hour for context, and the daily for trend bias. The plan is to adapt as the story unfolds, responding dynamically to price movements, indicators, and market conditions. Act 1: Opening Context and Initial Assessment Morning Check (Pre-Market): Daily Trend: If uptrending, focus on long trades at pullbacks (VWAP lower deviation or Fibonacci retracements). If downtrending, target short trades at resistance (VWAP upper deviation or Kumo rejection). If consolidating, prepare for range-bound trades. Key Levels: Identify support ($2,618, $2,622) and resistance ($2,628, $2,635). Volume and Momentum: Note RVOL (Relative Volume) and RSI. Spikes signal active institutional participation. Act 2: The Setup The price approaches $2,624, a critical level. Now, the story splits into multiple paths: Path 1: Normal Long Trade Scenario: Price pulls back to $2,620 (VWAP lower deviation). Action: Entry: Long $2,620. SL: $2,616 (ATR-based or below recent swing low). TP1: $2,624 (VWAP median). TP2: $2,628 (Fibonacci extension). TP3: $2,635 (Daily resistance). TSL: Once $2,624 is hit, trail SL to $2,622. What-If Scenarios: Price moves up and hits TP1: Scale out 50%, adjust TSL to $2,622. Price reverses: Exit remaining at TSL ($2,622). Price consolidates at $2,624: Monitor 5-minute chart for continuation signals (momentum candles, rising RSI). Path 2: Momentum Trade Scenario: Price breaks above $2,624 with strong momentum (RVOL > 1.5, bullish Ichimoku TK cross). Action: Entry: Buy Stop $2,626. SL: $2,622. TP1: $2,630. TP2: $2,635. TP3: $2,640 (Daily high). TSL: Trail SL to $2,628 once $2,630 is breached. What-If Scenarios: Price hits TP1 and slows: Reduce 50% position size, adjust TSL to $2,628. Price continues to TP2/TP3: Let TSL manage profit locking. Price reverses below $2,628: Exit fully and reassess for a potential short. Act 3: The Reaction The market tests $2,628, the resistance level. Path 3: Reversal Setup Scenario: Price fails to break $2,628 and forms a Shooting Star (bearish reversal candlestick) with RSI divergence. Action: Entry: Short $2,628. SL: $2,631. TP1: $2,624. TP2: $2,622. TP3: $2,618 (VWAP lower deviation). TSL: Trail SL to $2,624 after TP1 is hit. What-If Scenarios: Price reverses and breaks $2,628: Stop out and flip to a long trade. Price moves to TP1 and stalls: Reduce position size, tighten TSL. Price accelerates to TP2/TP3: Let trailing stop lock in profits. Act 4: Scaling and Stalling The market stalls near $2,624 during the London-NYC session overlap. Path 4: Scaling In and Out Scenario: Price consolidates at $2,624 with low RVOL but shows higher lows on the 5-minute chart. Action: Scale In: Add positions if bullish signals emerge (e.g., higher lows, TK cross). Monitor SL placement; keep it tight ($2,622). Scale Out: Take partial profits at $2,628, $2,630. Let the remaining position ride to $2,635 if momentum continues. What-If Scenarios: Price breaks down below $2,622: Exit fully and reassess for short opportunities. Momentum increases: Continue scaling out at Fibonacci levels. Act 5: Breakouts and Volume Surges The price approaches $2,635, a major resistance level. Path 5: Volume Breakout Scenario: Price surges above $2,635 with RVOL > 2.0. Action: Entry: Buy Stop $2,636. SL: $2,631. TP1: $2,640. TP2: $2,645 (Fibonacci extension). TP3: $2,650. TSL: Move SL to $2,635 after $2,640 is breached. What-If Scenarios: Price fails at $2,640: Exit partially at TSL. Price reverses sharply: Flip to short below $2,635. Act 6: Ending Scenarios Scenario 1: Market Consolidates Action: Stay sidelined if no clear signals align across Ichimoku, VWAP, and FVG. Scenario 2: Price Collapses Action: Use mean reversion strategies: Short breakdowns below $2,618. Long at oversold conditions near $2,610 with tight SL. Key Decision Points Summary Level Action SL TP1 TP2 TP3 TSL Strategy $2,618 Long (support pullback) $2,616 $2,622 $2,624 $2,628 Trail SL to $2,620 after TP1 is hit. $2,624 Long (momentum breakout) $2,622 $2,628 $2,630 $2,635 Trail SL to $2,628 after TP1 is hit. $2,628 Short (reversal setup) $2,631 $2,624 $2,622 $2,618 Trail SL to $2,624 after TP1 is hit. $2,635 Long (volume breakout) $2,631 $2,640 $2,645 $2,650 Trail SL to $2,635 after TP1 is hit. Conclusion By following this dynamic roadmap, you’re prepared to react to XAU/USD price movements in real-time, with setups that adapt to market conditions, session-specific opportunities, and evolving momentum. Let the market tell its story—and respond with precision.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
ACSUSD 12/6/2024ACSUSD Daily Chart Analysis Overview: After topping out between March and April 2024, ACSUSD experienced a steep downtrend, respecting the 50-day and 200-day EMAs until late October 2024. However, a reversal began in early November with strong signals pointing to bullish momentum. ________________________________________ Key Observations: 1. Reversal Pattern: o On November 4th and 5th, a Tweezer Bottom pattern formed, signaling a potential trend reversal. o Confirmation came the following day, supported by a significant volume spike. 2. Breakout and Pullback: o November 10th saw a massive +60% move, breaking through the 50-day EMA and briefly surpassing the 90-day EMA. o Price has since retraced below the 90-day EMA but holds firm at the 50-day EMA, establishing it as support. 3. Bullish Structure: o A trendline has emerged, guiding price upwards alongside support from the 10-day EMA. o Volume remains elevated, and the MACD continues to trend higher in bullish territory, further validating upward momentum. 4. Current Setup: o Price is sitting at a confluence of supports (trendline and 10-day EMA), presenting a strong risk-reward entry point. ________________________________________ Trade Plan: • Entry: 0.0021550 • Stop Loss: 0.0017915 (-16.87%) • Target #1: 0.0032318 (+49.98%, 2.96 RR ratio) • Target #2: 0.0044041 (+104.99%, 6.32 RR ratio) ________________________________________ This setup aligns with a continuation of bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators and favorable market conditions.
COINBASE:ACSUSDLong
by rudcharts
5
Anatomy of a Breakout (Orderflow)I am sharing my current approach for trading breakouts , please share your opinion on the comments section so we can have a discussion. Used Tools: Number Bars (Footprint chart) Liquidity Heatmap Volume Delta Volume Support and Resistance ATR For bullish resistance breakout z we setup alarms that alerts us when price is 2 atr below the resistance when alarm triggered we set to watch as price approaches towards the resistance we expect higher volume and higher delta advance on poc and value areas and especially positive readings on footprint on the upper side in terms of liquidity we spot a vacuum zone in the target direction right after the resistance for price to advance and Liquidity thinning just below the resistance (indicates sellers pulling orders) as we breakout we spot a huge spike in the volume and delta indicating resting orders absorbed by the market buyer to confirm we look for not thin prints in the upper side of the candle but a good value area indicating price is doing business over there we wait for a confirmation candle with similar profile see liquidity flip at resistance becoming support then enter we also consider higher timeframe structure is it trending if ranging where is the range etc and asses volality in terms of is it increasing meaning there is enough volality for a breakout For exit we target the end of the vacuum zone aka nearest liquidity or nearest market structure, or a reversal in orderflow. For bearish support breakout We set up alarms that alert us when the price is 2 ATR above the support. When the alarm is triggered, we start monitoring closely. As the price approaches the support, we expect higher volume and higher negative delta, with the POC (Point of Control) and value areas advancing downward. On the footprint chart, we look for particularly negative readings on the lower side. In terms of liquidity, we identify a vacuum zone below the support, indicating room for the price to drop, and observe liquidity thinning just above the support (indicating buyers pulling their orders). As the breakout occurs, we expect a large spike in volume and negative delta, signaling that resting buy orders have been absorbed by market sellers. To confirm, we look for no thin prints on the lower side of the candle and a well-formed value area below the support, showing that price is establishing value there. We then wait for a confirmation candle with a similar profile and observe a liquidity flip where support turns into resistance before entering the trade. We also assess the higher timeframe structure, determining whether the market is trending or ranging, and identify the location of the range if applicable. Additionally, we evaluate volatility to ensure it is increasing, indicating sufficient energy for the breakout. For exit we target the end of the vacuum zone aka nearest liquidity or nearest market structure, or a reversal in orderflow. Additional Notes: S/R lines defined based on daily graph anti trend consolidation zones we are not defining numeric tresholds because context matters
Education
by mertenes3
1
BTC Trend Reversal in Bullish, Asalam.o.alaikum (Hi) Community, Hope you are fine and doing all of your great, so yesterday i published the Bitcoin's reversal area's chart according to 30mins time frame and we've got the best move and 100% accuracy along with brokage commission. So, now we having this chart according to market momentum, our first reversal (minor) will be happened at 50% (Mentioned in the chart) and second and major is at the 100% (Mentioned in the chart). After that we have new structure, let see what happened in the market today. Don't forget to leave your reply about will it continue the reversal or go future bearish? Exited to know what's your thinking.... Cheers, Thanks! Intikhab Gillani MOCHH Analyst (Ultra Securities & Hedge Funds PvT Limited Pakistan) 23/12/2024
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IntikhabGillaniACCA
COST with Strong Resistance Divergence **Costco (COST)** has not yet reported its results for the quarter ending in November 2024. The results are expected to be released on **December 12**. This warehouse club operator is expected to post quarterly earnings of **$3.79 per share** in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of **+8.9%**. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised **0.1% higher** over the last 30 days to the current level. Costco's revenues are expected to be **$62.37 billion**, up **7.9%** from the year-ago quarter. For now its expected to have a dropp down twoard the lower channel supported by strong negaptive resistance in addtional it seems Options Market makers are looking to burn 955 and 1000 Call 29 Nov Contracts
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by Nashwan
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel. The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
1
BTC/USD Short: FibCloud Rejection and 200MA TargetOn the 8-hour BTC/USD timeframe, I have executed a short position following a clear rejection from the FibCloud, signaling strong resistance at this level. The price action showcases a classic flip of old support into new resistance, further solidifying bearish momentum. My target for this trade is the $90,000 price zone, aligning with the 200MA on the 8-hour chart. Additionally, order flow data confirms significant sell-side activity, with large orders clustered between the $90,000 and $89,000 levels, providing further confluence for this setup. The trade is structured to capitalize on the retracement move, with the potential for price consolidation or reversal upon hitting the $90K psychological and technical support zone. Technicals: • Entry Trigger: Rejection from FibCloud and resistance flip. • Target: $90,000 (aligned with the 200MA and key order flow levels). • Stop Loss: Positioned above the FibCloud to mitigate risk. • Order Flow Insight: Large sell orders between $90,000–$89,000 add weight to the bearish scenario. This setup emphasizes a disciplined approach to risk management, leveraging technical and order flow alignment for optimal execution. Stay sharp, and remember to pay yourself! Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
APTUSDT Technical Analysis: Risk-Reward Setup with Dynamic Sp.LvRisk: %17 | Reward: %45 and beyond APTUSDT is exhibiting signs of potential price movement with significant technical indicators supporting the analysis. A noticeable bullish divergence on RSI and a temporary retracement towards a key support level may provide an ideal opportunity for long positions. Traders are advised to watch price action closely around the identified trendline and support zones for entry confirmations. Trading suggestion: A possible retracement to the $8.37 support line might occur. Traders can consider setting buy orders based on price action confirmation near the suggested support and aim for mid to long-term targets. Technical analysis: The RSI is oversold, indicating potential upside momentum if the trendline is respected. The DMF Index shows declining bearish pressure, hinting at a reversal possibility. SL = Break below $6.91 support zone. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio with dynamic levels to monitor. Always trade with proper risk management strategies.
Long
by srmustafabas
Analysis of gold price trend this week--2630--2680Analysis of gold price trend this week, fluctuation range - 2630-2680 "Gold investors are like gamblers - they just wear nicer suits and call their losses 'portfolio adjustments. Predicting gold prices is like predicting the weather - the weather is less often wrong!'" Williams' gold weather forecast: Theoretical basis: straight lines belong to humans, curves belong to God Obviously, the remarks of Trump and Powell are like Chinese crosstalk. They are singing a double act, Trump plays the red face and Powell plays the black face. Together, they reap the wealth of the world. God's perspective - as shown in the figure: We use the S line to symmetrically divide all trends, and we can draw a clear conclusion: The gold price around 2630 is a normal rebound, but it also means that this wave of market has been digested. Next, the gold price will move out of the new S line: The most likely fluctuation range: 2630-2680 It is obvious: 1: If the gold price falls in the future, it is likely to fully absorb funds at 2630-2680, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. 2: If the gold price rises in the future, it is likely to stabilize at 2630 and fully adjust, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. 3: If the gold price fluctuates in the future, from a macro-cycle perspective, it is likely to fluctuate in the range of 2630-2680, which means that the gold price will continue to rise in the short term. Summary of this week: Gold price adopts a low-multiple approach, macro strategy reference: BUY: 2620-2630 SL: 2600 TP: 2680 Specific operations, I will continue to follow up on ideas. If you are interested in my analysis, you can discuss it in the comment area, and I will explain, share and communicate with you one by one
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brad_Williams
3
SYN about to trap some bullsWe've entered the orange structure and overshot our normal target due to consolidation in the B phase. However, the red sequence started prematurely, turning before reaching the reversal zone. This suggests the current structure may not follow typical patterns. The forming green structure, with constantly lower lows in the X phase, is concerning, especially given Synapse's relatively new data and the untested equal lows acting like a magnet for liquidity. Given my outlook on Bitcoin falling further, I expect the green structure to fail and the range low to be taken out before any bullish structures form. So, I'd advise caution: wait and see how the market reacts at the range low. Once we see a bullish structure, then it's time to trade. For now, patience is key.
Short
by xSamu_TA
Ftx token ( FTT)Ftt usdt Daily analysis Time frame 4hours Risk rewards ratio >2.5 👈👌👈👈 First target 4.5 $ Second target 5.45 $ LS should have been chosen very close to the entry point (a little below the diagonal line), but in order not to be caught, I chose LS much lower, so that over time and as the price grows, I will also raise LS and make it risk-free. Good news has also been heard in cyberspace about the new management of the FTX exchange, which is paying off its debts, and this is a positive sign for the future this currency and it is likely to return to its original position, the price range before the problems it had with the Binance exchange. (20-25$)
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
$XAUUSD #XAUUSD GOLD LONGS MONDAY post NYSE 12/23/2024 been intraday bullish on gold eyeing this 2610 level post NYSE open sellside this morning looking to play longs targeting 2620/2625 intraday and potentially 2630+ if we get a big move with some pre Christmas volume my invalidation is around 2607 and i will stop out and take the loss if we break down 2610 into 2608/2607 if we take out the low then fly I'll be mad but such is life Definitely not financial advice Trade at your own risk Be safe much love and happy Holidays Just going to be using TradingView more often as a personal journal going into the New Year
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ZeveJL
2