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The spot gold price broke through the $3120 per ounce mark, rising nearly $40 at one point, reaching a record high of $3128. This amazing rise was mainly driven by market concerns about the Trump administration's upcoming tariff policy, and investors flocked to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, to seek shelter. The cumulative increase in March has exceeded 9%, and is expected to record the largest monthly increase in nearly a year.
On Monday, the international gold price continued to rise, with the spot gold price breaking through the $3120 per ounce mark, rising nearly $40 at one point, reaching a record high of $3128, an increase of about 1.3%. This amazing rise was mainly driven by market concerns about the Trump administration's upcoming tariff policy, and investors flocked to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, to seek shelter. The cumulative increase in March has exceeded 10%, and is expected to record the largest monthly increase in nearly a year.
Technical indicators show that $3,000 has become a new support level. I predict that gold prices may hit $3,180 in the short term, and the target will be raised to $3,300 by the end of the year.
The market is paying attention to the US reciprocal tariff plan on April 2 and Friday's non-agricultural data. Goldman Sachs warned that tariff escalation may cause US core PCE inflation to rise to 3.5% and GDP growth to slow to 1%. Analysts are generally bullish on gold, and 85% of institutions predict that the rise will continue. Under the resonance of risk aversion and inflationary pressure, gold may remain strong in the short term, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the possible technical correction to the 3040-3090 range in mid-April.
Geopolitical tensions have further exacerbated market uneasiness. US President Trump's latest statement on Sunday said that if he believes that Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, he will impose a secondary tariff of 25% to 50% on all Russian oil. This tough stance has heightened market concerns about the deteriorating global trade environment, providing additional impetus for gold prices to rise.
From a macroeconomic perspective, rising inflation expectations have also supported gold's gains. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's latest statement shows that recent inflation data has shaken her confidence in two rate cuts this year. This statement reinforces the market's expectations that the Fed may maintain a high interest rate policy for a longer period of time, and the value of gold as a traditional anti-inflation asset has been highlighted. So far this year, gold prices have risen by more than 18%, showing strong safe-haven appeal.
Despite the record highs in gold prices, analysts warned that the market may face the risk of short-term adjustments. If the tariffs announced this week are not as severe as people fear, then gold prices may start to fall as profit-taking at high levels may be triggered. "Market participants are waiting with bated breath for the final details of the Trump administration's tariff policy, which will determine the sustainability of gold's current rally.
In the current environment, gold has demonstrated its unique value as the "ultimate safe-haven asset". As geopolitical risks, trade tensions and inflation uncertainties persist, gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. However, investors also need to be wary of possible profit-taking pressure after policy clarification, as well as the potential impact of the Fed's monetary policy direction on the gold market. The subsequent development of this gold feast dominated by risk aversion will still depend on the game results of multiple factors.
