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Trend Analysis

Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 151.17 1st Support: 149.03 1st Resistance: 154.51 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
SPY Slips into Deep Negative Gamma — Aug. 1SPY Slips into Deep Negative Gamma — $629.73 Pivot Under Siege 🔍 GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis) SPY has rolled over sharply from the $641 highs, slicing through multiple support zones and now probing the $629–$631 gamma pivot. The GEX structure is decisively negative, signaling elevated downside risk if this key level fails. * Call Walls & Resistance: * 📍 $636.39 → 1st resistance (Call resistance zone) * 📍 $639.48–$640.28 → 2nd Call Wall cluster * 📍 $641.46 → Highest call wall / gamma resistance * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 🛡️ $631.07 → Current key gamma pivot * 🚨 $629.73 → Highest negative NET GEX / critical floor * 📉 Break below $629 risks a flush to $626–$622 * Volatility Insight: * IVR 15.2, IVx Avg 15.4 → Low realized volatility despite price slide * Put flow 61% → Heavily bearish * GEX sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴 = Strong negative gamma — market likely to see amplified moves in current direction ✅ Option Trading Suggestion: Bias: Bearish unless reclaiming $636+
Strategy: Bear put spread or put fly * Entry Idea: Buy 630P / Sell 625P (Aug 2 or Aug 9 expiry) * Invalidation: Close above $636 * Target: $626 → $622 Why this works: SPY is pinned near a major negative gamma inflection. Below $629.73, dealer hedging could accelerate selling pressure toward $622. 🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis) Market Structure & SMC: * 🟥 CHoCH confirmed after rejection at $641 * ❌ Broke short-term BOS levels in the $637–$636 zone * Currently trading in a downward-sloping structure with multiple failed bounces Trendline Dynamics: * Clean descending channel from July 30 highs * Lower bound projection points to $626–$622 support SMC Zones: * 🟩 Demand Zone: $629–$626 → Short-term bounce risk here * 🟥 Supply Zone (Purple Box): $636–$639 → Heavy overhead resistance 🔄 Price Action & Key Levels * Support: * ✅ $631.07 → Current gamma pivot * 🚨 $629.73 → Key breakdown trigger * 📉 $626 → Lower demand * 📉 $622 → Deeper downside target * Resistance: * 🚩 $636.39 → First reclaim level for relief * 🚩 $639.48 → Mid supply * 🚩 $641.46 → Full reversal point 🧭 Scalping / Intraday Trade Setup 🟥 Bearish Setup (Preferred): * Entry: Breakdown under $629.73 * Target 1: $626 * Target 2: $622 * Stop: Above $632 🟩 Bullish Reversal Setup: * Entry: Reclaim of $636.39 with strong volume * Target 1: $639.48 * Target 2: $641.46 * Stop: Below $634 🔁 Summary Thoughts * SPY is in a clean downtrend inside a negative gamma regime. * $629.73 is the critical make-or-break line — holding it could trigger a small bounce, breaking it could unleash another wave of selling toward $622. * Options flow is heavily bearish, aligning with technical weakness. 🚨 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Gold: final pullback or bull trap?On the 1H chart, gold (GOLD) is forming a bullish flag after a sharp decline, which may just be a corrective move within a broader downtrend. The price is now approaching the key resistance zone around $3313–$3317 - this area holds the POC, broken trendline, and the 0.705–0.79 Fibonacci retracement from the last drop. This is the decision-making zone. If bulls fail to push above it, we expect a move down toward $3268 - the next strong support and potential buy zone, also confirmed by Fibonacci and local demand. Stochastic divergence and slowing volume suggest a possible rebound from that level. However, if the price breaks and holds above $3317, this would indicate a local trend reversal, with targets at $3333 and $3374. Watch the $3317 zone closely - bulls have yet to prove this is more than just a bounce.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
EUR/JPY Setup: Retail is 82% Short – Squeeze First, Drop After?🔹 Technical Context Price reacted with a strong bullish wick in the 169.50–170.30 demand zone, signaling clear buyer defense. The RSI bounced from weakness but remains subdued, showing limited momentum. 📍 Current price action suggests a potential retest of the 172.50–173.30 area, which aligns with a supply zone, before a possible directional decision is made. 🗓️ Seasonality Historically, August tends to be bearish for EUR/JPY: 5Y average: -0.48% 10Y average: -0.12% 15Y/20Y averages: -1.3% and -1.2% 📉 Seasonality indicates potential weakness, especially in the second half of the month. 🪙 COT Report (EURO & YEN) – July 22 EURO: Strong long accumulation by non-commercials (+6,284) and commercials (+17,575) JPY: Net decline in both longs (-1,033) and shorts (-4,096), with a drop in total open interest 🧠 The market is heavily positioned on the Euro, while Yen positioning is fading. This creates a divergence between the two currencies, favoring a short-term technical bounce on EUR/JPY, though downside risks remain in the mid-term. 📉 Sentiment 82% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY Volume: 1,564 lots short vs 352 lots long 📣 This extreme sentiment imbalance suggests a potential short-term squeeze against retail traders. 📊 Market Mood & DPO Overall mood: Neutral DPO at -9.0, Wyckoff score below 50 Momentum remains weak, but not showing a clear divergence. 🧩 Operational Summary Retest of the 172.50–173.30 supply zone Likely exhaustion in that area Ideal setup: rejection + bearish confirmation → Targets: 170.30, then 169.00
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
SUI 8H – Trendline Break, BOS Retest, and SR FlipSUI is at a pivotal level after cleanly breaking its 2025 downtrend and flipping prior supply into potential support. The current zone ($3.48–$3.60) marks a textbook BOS retest, aligning with the broken trendline and a clear structure shift. Price has already printed a higher high, and if this zone holds, it could establish a higher low — a key confirmation for bullish continuation. Momentum traders may watch for reclaim of $3.70 for confluence, while invalidation sits below $3.32. A break lower opens the door to deeper retracement targets around the 0.618 zone ($3.32–$3.38), but structure remains intact until then. Clean price action, strong confluence, and a clear invalidation level make this an actionable zone to watch. 📊 Structure: BOS → Retest 🧠 Bias: Bullish if $3.48–$3.60 holds 📉 Invalidation: 8H close below $3.32 🔔 Next key levels: $3.90, $4.10, $4.45
COINBASE:SUIUSD
by Quant_Trading_Pro
Robert Half | RHI | Long at $37.58Robert Half NYSE:RHI is a company that provides talent solutions and business consulting services in the US and internationally. It's a cyclical stock. Currently, the price has entered my "crash" simple moving average zone ($37-$33) and has historical bounced from this area. This doesn't mean the "major crash" area won't be reached ($26-$21 or below), but the company has been around since 1948 and survived many hurdles along the way. Earnings are forecast to grow 8% annually and it has a 6.3% dividend. P/E = 21x and financially healthy (low debt-to-equity: .2x, low bankruptcy risk/Altmans Z Score: 5; and enough cash to pay current bills/quick ratio: 1.6). Regardless of bottom predictions, I think there is a high chance the stock may reach $33 before a slight bounce. If the market flips for a bit, that "major crash" area ($20s) may be hit. So, a starter position for NYSE:RHI has been created at $37.58 with additional entries near $33 and $25-$26. Targets into 2028: $46.00 (+22.4%) $53.00 (+41.0%)
NYSE:RHILong
by WorthlessViews
GOLD (XAUUSD) -Monthly Analysis & Trading Plan (Aug 2025)GOLD (XAUUSD) -Monthly Analysis & Trading Plan (Aug 2025) Title: XAUUSD: Correction in Progress, Patience is Key for the Next Move Chart: XAUUSD Monthly (1M) Analysis Type: ICT/SMC, Price Action, & Moving Average Summary: After a historic and powerful bull run that saw Gold (XAUUSD) breach all-time highs in the first half of 2025, the market has entered a significant corrective phase. The massive red candle in June signaled a strong reversal of momentum, and the current July candle confirms that sellers remain in control, albeit with less intensity. This is a critical juncture for long-term traders, and a strategic approach is required. Key Observations & Analysis 1. **Price Action & Market Structure:** The move from late 2024 through May 2025 was a textbook "impulsive leg." The sharp reversal in June 2025, with a powerful bearish candle, likely acted as a **liquidity grab** or a **high-volume distribution event**, trapping late buyers. The market is now in a clear **break in market structure (BOS)** to the downside on this long-term timeframe, suggesting the correction is not over. 2. **ICT/SMC Concepts:** * **Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (FVG):** The rapid bullish move created significant imbalances on the monthly chart. Price often returns to fill these gaps. The current correction is likely heading to fill or test these inefficiencies. * **Order Block (OB):** The massive bullish move in late 2024/early 2025 likely created a strong bullish order block. The current sell-off is heading toward this potential institutional demand zone. * **Liquidity:** The lows from late 2024 and early 2025 will be key liquidity pools. Smart money will likely be targeting these areas for a potential reversal or accumulation. 3. **Moving Average Analysis (MMA):** * The price is currently trading above both the purple and yellow moving averages, which are still pointing upward. This confirms the long-term trend remains bullish, and the current move is a correction within that trend. * The **purple moving average** is a key support level to watch. A test of this level would be a high-probability event, and its reaction will be crucial for the next major move. Suggested Entry & Exit Levels 1. Aggressive Entry (Short) Rationale The bearish momentum, though slowing, is still the dominant force. An aggressive trader could look for a continuation of the short-term bearish trend. Entry/b] A short entry could be considered on a pullback to the recent highs around **$3,400 - $3,500** if a strong bearish candlestick pattern forms on a lower timeframe (e.g., weekly or daily). Stop Loss A tight stop-loss placed just above the recent high, for example, **$3,600**. This is a high-risk entry, so position sizing should be small. Target The first major target would be the **moving average support level**, roughly in the **$3,000 - $3,100** zone. The ultimate target for a full correction would be the order block from late 2024, around **$2,800**. 2. Conservative Entry (Long) Rationale The long-term trend is still bullish. The current move is a correction. The most prudent approach is to wait for a high-probability long entry at a key support level. Entry/b] Wait for price to reach the **purple moving average support zone (around $3,000 - $3,100)**. Look for a clear reversal signal on this level, such as a large bullish "pin bar" or "engulfing candle" on the monthly or weekly chart. This would be a high-probability demand zone for a reversal. Stop Loss A stop-loss should be placed below this key support level, perhaps around **$2,850 - $2,900**, giving the trade room to breathe. Target The first target for a new bullish leg would be the New swing high around **$3,800**. The ultimate long-term target would be a new all-time high above **$4,000**. Conclusion The Gold market is in a crucial phase. The bullish party from earlier in 2025 is over for now, and a healthy correction is underway. **The most logical and safe approach is to wait for the market to complete its corrective move.** Do not attempt to catch a falling knife. Instead, be patient and wait for price to reach a key institutional demand zone (our moving average support or the late 2024 order block) and show a clear sign of reversal. This will present a high-probability, low-risk long entry for the next impulsive move up. Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Please perform your own due diligence and risk management. Trading involves a significant risk of loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Muhammad_Aoun
3
Still bullish in the higher time frames Solana has been struggling to break and stay above $170-200 zone this cycle. It has been a very difficult asset to trade, however, I can see more bullish setups than bearish setups in higher timeframe charts. Monthly: 1) July monthly candle closed above Fib 0.618 and formed higher high higher low. 2) RSI and MACD are still in the bull zone. 3) Stochastic are in the bear zone, but they are pointing to the upside. Weekly: 1) EMA21 is still above EMA55. 2) The current weekly candle is forming bearing engulfing candle, however, there are two more days before it closes. It is still above EMA 21. 3) RSI orange line (RSI based moving average) is moving upwards and entering the bull zone. 4) MACD is about to enter the bull zone. 5) Stochastic hasn't reached overbought territory yet. 6) The set up of these three momentum indicators is very similar to the set up in Oct 23 before Solana started a massive bull trend. (see red vertical line) Daily: 1) EMA21>EMA55>EMA200 2) As I said in the previous articles, EMA 55 and 200 don't cross easily. But when they do, the price often pulls back significantly before it starts to move in the direction of the trend. 3) Daily candle broke below EMA21, however, the price is reacting strongly to EMA55. 4) The price is still higher high higher low. I will wait and see if the price is going to bounce off from $143 -157 region. (see blue rectangular block).
COINBASE:SOLUSDLong
by EbonyFalcon
Non-farm payrolls are coming. What's the gold trend?Gold fell sharply on Wednesday, but Thursday's market didn't continue the downward trend as some investors expected. Instead, it showed a trend of rising and then falling. From the daily perspective, we first need to focus on the resistance level near 3300 where the 5-day moving average is located. This position is not only a short-term technical resistance, but also reflects the market's psychological expectations to a certain extent. If prices can successfully break through this level and stabilize above it, it will indicate that bullish momentum is strengthening, potentially boosting market sentiment. At this point, the next resistance area to watch is the 3330-3340 range. This area converges the 10-day, 20-day and 30-day moving averages, forming a strong resistance band. As for the support below, the primary focus is Wednesday's low of 3268. However, if this level is lost and the price continues to fall, the next support area will be around 3245, which is the previous low. Trading strategy: Short around 3300, stop loss at 3310, profit range 3280-3260.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by quaid_2
XRP 4H + 67% From MACD Trend Entry, But Is the Pullback Real?This XRP move was a masterclass in filtered momentum trading. The MACD Liquidity Tracker Strategy (Normal Mode) skipped early chop, then fired long once MACD aligned with a reclaim of the 60/220 EMAs — signaling a clean directional shift. The strategy held through a +67.18% rally, exiting only when MACD flipped bearish and price lost EMA support. From ~$2.12 to ~$3.54, the move was captured in full with zero re-entries or second guessing. Now price is under pressure, printing pink bars and sitting below both EMAs. The $2.90–$3.00 zone may determine if this is a healthy pullback — or the start of a reversal. 📊 MACD: 25 / 60 / 220 Trend Filter: 60/220 EMA Mode: Normal | Timeframe: 4H Educational chart. Drop your take.
by Quant_Trading_Pro
BTC Exhaustion Zone Update: The Bulls Charged… But the Zone HeldExhaustion Zone Update: 2025–208 📉 Exhaustion Zone Update: The Bulls Charged… But the Zone Held On Friday, BTC dipped to 114,700, printing a fresh Daily Swing Low — a classic liquidity grab. The bulls stormed in for reinforcements, pushed price back up late in the day… but once again, the Exhaustion Zone stood its ground. BTC closed lower than Thursday, and since then? Pure chop. Feels like both bulls and bears took the weekend off to watch Netflix. — 🔻 The Downward Trendline Still Rules Today, it’s simple: Bulls must close above 118,477. That’s the trendline test — hesitation here, and the bears come clawing. Usually I’d say, "give the bulls until Monday"... but this year has shown us one thing: 🐋 The Whales Hunt on Sundays. If the bulls don’t step up today, we might learn the hard way why it’s called the Exhaustion Zone. — 📉 The Risk if Bulls Fail BTC already gathered all the bulls it could down at the Daily Swing Low — and they’re tired. If they can’t break out, the High-Powered Short Zone (dashed red lines) will take over. The bears? Heavy. Angry. Overdue for a window jump. 🎯 Next floors down: • May ATH → 111,965 • January ATH → 109,354 That’s the Take Profit$ Zone 👇 And honestly? I’m letting a small short position ride in case the evil whales take us all the way to the 50% level (98,811). — 📌 The Alpha View To the bulls: It’s showtime. Either close above 118,477 today… or the All-Time High Parade might just reroute — straight down the fire escape. 🐻🔥
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by TheAlphaView
$NVDA ~ An Elliott Wave Breakdown.(Detailed Spectrum)Our Wave 2(Black) of the main wave was a Zigzag hence a Flat for Wave 4(Black). When Wave 3(Black) completed a three wave move, shown in Green, was made, hence A(Blue). Wave B(Blue) went beyond the end of 3(Black) and had 3 waves, shown in Red, also(as expected for Flats). The last of this 3 wave move(Wave c-Red) had 5 waves shown in Black. Upon completion, our Wave B(Blue) was over and we expected a Wave 4(Black). Our Wave 4 made a 5 wave move(Shown in Red) that retested at the 261.8% Fib. level. With Wave C(Blue) complete, it was coined Wave 4(Black). Wave 5(Black) was launched and has a 5 wave move shown in Green. With a Zigzag for Wave 2(Green), a Flat should be expected for Wave 4(Green). Wave 3(Green) has 5 waves with a triangle for Wave 4(Blue). A confirmation at its current location(423.6% Fib. level) would mean that Wave 3(Green) is complete and a Wave A(Black) of the previously mentioned Flat should be anticipated. NB: The placement of Wave A(Black) of the Flat mentioned above is purely for demonstrative purposes.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by machariavictor017
SOLUSD H4 | Bullish bounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price could fall to the buy entry, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could bounce to the upside. Buy entry is at 167.42, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss is at 157.16, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 181.53, which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SOLUSDLong
by Tradu
1