Get started

Trend Analysis

Correction up for BitcoinHi traders, Let's keep it positive for Bitcoin. So it could be that the last drop was an impulsive wave of a bigger correction. I've updated the wave count. So now we could see a (corrective) move up again to the Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a sweep of the previous lows, a change in orderflow to bullish and a small correction down on a lower time frame to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading ICT concepts with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
Expect ENPH breakout by EOY 2025. Buy <$60Trends: - LT parallel channel shown marks some key trendlines for the company since IPO - LT falling wedge intersects the bottom of this channel H2 2025 --> a buying opportunity above $50. If that breaks, falling wedge ends around $35, a 30% downside (or 40% vs today's price). - The early 2023 peak aligned with peak in revenue and net income (decline matched stock decline). We're now seeing revenue and net income growth again (growth can bring back stock growth) My Bias: I'm a long-term believer in solar. ENPH plays mostly in the residential solar space (and is expanding into small commercial). They are often lauded for their high levels of customer service. Investment Thesis: We're back to financial growth but the stock is down. We're in a few months window before LT trends converge mid / H2 2025. If we break bullish from falling wedge and hit LOWEST point of parallel channel by EOY 2026, we'd be at $70/share (16% upside from $60; 40% upside from $50). This is my expected worst case scenario, meaning anything under $60/share is now a buying opportunity.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by HandsomeSloth
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
Dow Oversold reversal, The Week Ahead 03rd March '25The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) index maintains a bullish outlook within its long-term uptrend. However, after reaching an all-time high on December 4, 2024, price action has entered a sideways consolidation phase, suggesting indecision in the market. ________________________________________ Bullish Scenario: • The 42980 level serves as a critical support zone, aligning with the previous consolidation range and the rising trendline. • A pullback to this level, followed by a bullish rebound, would reaffirm the uptrend and could trigger upside momentum. • Potential upside targets include: 44240 (20-day moving average) 44660 (next resistance level) 45000 (key psychological resistance) A strong recovery from 42980 would reinforce bullish sentiment and indicate a continuation of the broader uptrend. ________________________________________ Bearish Scenario: • A confirmed break below 42980, with a daily close beneath this level, would signal weakness in the uptrend. • This could lead to a deeper retracement, exposing key downside levels: 42520 (next significant support) 41920 (200-day moving average), a critical level for long-term trend validation A sustained breakdown below 42980 could shift sentiment in favour of sellers, increasing the probability of further declines. ________________________________________ Market Outlook: The 42980 level remains pivotal—holding above this zone will keep the bullish trend intact, while a decisive break lower could trigger an extended pullback. Traders should watch for price action signals and volume confirmation at this key level to assess the market's next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by TradeNation
Bitcoin like a Diamond.The diamond pattern is a sophisticated chart formation found in financial markets, yet it remains relatively obscure among technical traders and investors. As a member of the classical chart pattern family, it stands apart from more commonly recognized formations like flags, pennants, head and shoulders, and rectangles. Due to its rarity, traders encounter fewer chances to engage with the diamond pattern compared to these other formations. However, it is important for technical traders to familiarize themselves with this pattern, as it can present valuable trading opportunities when identified in a timely manner. Often mistaken for the head and shoulders pattern, the diamond chart formation shares some similarities but also has key differences that set it apart. The Continuation Diamond pattern serves as a signal for continuation, suggesting that the current trend is likely to persist. Traders often use this pattern to validate an uptrend and to identify potential buying opportunities in the market. The bearish diamond formation emerges following a strong upward price movement. It consists of two support levels that limit earlier pullbacks and two resistance levels that have interrupted the upward trend. Commonly referred to as the diamond top pattern, this formation serves as a signal for market participants to consider selling. So Diamond patterns can indicate either a reversal or continuation in the market, suggesting a potential bullish or bearish breakout. It's essential for traders to look for confirmation through trading volume at the breakout point. To execute trades, one should sell when the price falls below the diamond's top formation and buy when it rises above the diamond's bottom formation. This approach allows traders to effectively take long or short positions based on diamond patterns.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
11
GOLD Trend reversal, The Week Ahead 03rd March ’25The GOLD (XAUUSD) index pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the loss of longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be an overbought consolidation after reaching the all-time high on 20th Feb ‘25. The key trading level is at the 2896 level, 20-day moving average and the rising support trend line zone. An oversold bounce back from the current levels and a bearish rejection at the 2896 level could target the downside support at 2790 followed by the 2770 (50 DMA) and 2743 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 2896 resistance and a daily above below that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for a further rally and a retest of the 2920 level followed by 2950. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
USD/CHF - Weekly OutlookHi all, thank you all for the huge amount of support. My previous post blew up. Here is a breakdown of the trade Idea I will be looking at for late next week Long Term - Price is Bearish, making Lower Lows except we did fail to sweep the lowest swing of Liquidity. Price is still respecting the Resistance level. We do see a huge amount of resting Liquidity sitting higher acting as a triple top although I do believe we need to take sell side before making that large push to the upside. Short Term - Price most recently had moved up away from the previous Demand zone after a solid Price run from the Resistance leaving us a large acting supply with no Mitigated price. Trade Idea - After the most recent price run I would like price to move back up into the Supply zone also being at 0.91000 being a Key level. Price by then will also be within our OTE zone. Im targeting lower Liquidity to break previous structure after the Internal CHoCH. For added confluence we are under all Long Term EMA's. Risking 80Pips in return for 270Pips Good luck to all the traders that decide to follow Cheers
Short
by jamesibartram