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Trend Analysis

CVS Health Corp | CVS | Long at $43Not much to write about here except the stock has reentered the "crash" simple moving average area (see green lines). Often, this signals an overall bottom, but it doesn't mean a further dip below $40 isn't possible in the near-term. Personally, I can't ignore this reentry and thus have started a position at $43 (after closing out a previous position in October in the $60's). The company has a lot of headwinds, but if Walgreens NASDAQ:WBA is also in trouble, is NYSE:CVS too big to fail in the short-term? Target #1 = $53.00 Target #2 = $60.00 Target #3 = $65.00 Target #4 = $68.00
NYSE:CVSLong
by WorthlessViews
Overall bullish picture for OGNWe've activated a large overarching orange structure and formed a lower low, but the negative target level is unlikely as prices can't go negative. So, this structure serves as context rather than a strict guide. The more relevant structure now is the green one. We've reacted from the target zone, formed a lower low, and turned at resistance. The XY level pushed the price down after an over-correction. This opens the possibility of reaching the original target level, creating a new overarching lower low or range low. However, the overall market activity shows a willingness to trade both ways, as indicated by the light blue structure and the strong wick, suggesting pressure. Since we're still trading within the purple structure and its target isn't reached, I'll handle the market by opening positions at the end of the reversal zone. Given the previous range spike, I don't expect another, and I'll consider the green target invalid. My entry, stop loss, and take profit are set accordingly. I'll move my stop loss to break even once we activate the dark blue structure by forming a higher high. Also, I'll take 30% of my position off at the resistance line. I hope those confident enough to trade this can secure some profits.
Long
by xSamu_TA
BTC: Possible movements for the next six to 8 months The second channel has the same horizontal length in time as the first, I expect an accumulation phase which will last till summer and then we see break out of the channel and possible upward targets such as 140k. The second channel has not been formed yet, and I wait to see if next short term movements confirm the channel limits. This is not a yet a long trade idea as you see the possible movements in the channel, it might worth trying some swing trades.. Not a financial advice! Ps. Let me know what do you think.
by mahmoodpn
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Thief_Trader
ONE MOBIKWIK SYSTEMS LTD S/R for 24/12/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:MOBIKWIK
by zenthosh
BPTH could be in for a bull market in 2025!One new low cap stock pick with my research described below, please do your own research aswell and remember these are risky moves - thus small allocation. I will be back with many crypto charts for next year as well, don't worry! Bio-Path Holdings (BPTH) Overview: Bio-Path Holdings, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing nucleic acid cancer drugs using its proprietary DNAbilize antisense RNAi nanoparticle technology. This technology allows for the development of drugs that can be administered through intravenous transfusion, targeting specific genes associated with cancer. Last week, Bio-Path Holdings announced preclinical results for their drug candidate BP1001-A. The study demonstrated that BP1001-A enhances insulin sensitivity, suggesting its potential as a treatment for obesity in patients with Type 2 diabetes. In 2025, Bio-Path Holdings plans to initiate a first-in-human Phase 1 clinical trial for BP1001-A, focusing on validating its safety, measuring pharmacokinetics, and establishing dosing for potential pivotal trials. This trial is aimed at further exploring BP1001-A's potential as a treatment for obesity and related metabolic diseases in patients with Type 2 diabetes. A successful trial would likely lead to a significant increase in Bio-Path Holdings' stock price. The news of positive clinical results would be seen as a validation of the drug's potential, attracting more investor interest and possibly leading to partnerships or buyouts from larger pharmaceutical companies. SPECULATION: Estimating the yearly revenue potential and a fair valuation for Bio-Path Holdings (BPTH) based on BP1001-A's market entry involves several speculative assumptions, as we lack specific data on market penetration, pricing, competition, and long-term efficacy. Here's a theoretical breakdown: Revenue Potential: Market Size and Share: Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Market: The global market for treatments of obesity and Type 2 diabetes is substantial. For context, the global diabetes market alone was valued at approximately $51.1 billion in 2022, expected to reach $81.6 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of around 6.5% (). However, BP1001-A would be competing in a segment of this market focused on novel treatments or those with a unique mechanism like insulin sensitivity enhancement. Assumed Market Share: Assuming BP1001-A captures a niche segment, let's speculate it achieves a 1% to 5% market share due to its novel mode of action and targeting a specific subset of Type 2 diabetes patients with obesity. Pricing and Usage: Drug Pricing: New diabetes drugs, especially those with innovative mechanisms, can be priced high. For instance, if we assume a yearly cost per patient of $10,000 (considering the high cost of biologics and similar therapies), Patient Population: If we estimate that 1% of the diabetic population globally (approximately 537 million adults in 2021 according to IDF) could benefit from this drug, that's about 5.37 million patients. At 5% market share, this would mean 268,500 patients. Revenue Calculation: Annual Revenue: If 268,500 patients use BP1001-A at $10,000 per year, the potential annual revenue would be approximately $2.685 billion. For a 1% market share (53,700 patients), it would be around $537 million. Valuation: DCF Approach: A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis would be the traditional method to value BPTH if BP1001-A were to generate such revenues. Here's a simplified speculative approach: Cash Flow: Assuming 50% of revenue translates into gross profit (considering R&D, marketing, and other costs), a 1% market share would yield $268.5 million in gross profit, and 5% would yield $1.3425 billion. Discount Rate: Biotech companies often have high discount rates due to risk. Let's assume a 15% discount rate for this speculative valuation. Growth & Terminal Value: Assume growth stabilizes after initial high growth years, with a terminal growth rate of 2% post-patent exclusivity period (which might be around 20 years from patent to market). Valuation Calculation: With a 1% market share scenario: Present Value of Cash Flows for first 10 years (assuming rapid growth then stabilization): $268.5M * Annuity Factor at 15% = $1.4 billion (very roughly). Terminal Value (Gordon Growth Model) = $268.5M * (1+0.02)/(0.15-0.02) = $2.14 billion. Total Equity Value = PV of cash flows + Terminal Value = $3.54 billion. With a 5% market share scenario: Present Value of Cash Flows for first 10 years: $1.3425B * Annuity Factor at 15% = $7 billion (again, very roughly). Terminal Value = $1.3425B * (1+0.02)/(0.15-0.02) = $10.7 billion. Total Equity Value = $17.7 billion. Market Multiples: If we use industry multiples (PE ratios for biotech can be very high, especially for novel treatments), with a PE ratio of 20-30 for a company with significant growth potential, the valuation based on earnings from BP1001-A alone would range from: 1% Market Share: $5.37 billion (20 * $268.5M) to $8.055 billion (30 * $268.5M). 5% Market Share: $26.85 billion (20 * $1.3425B) to $40.275 billion (30 * $1.3425B). Fair Valuation: Given these speculative numbers, a fair valuation for BPTH based solely on BP1001-A's potential would be somewhere in the middle of these ranges, adjusted for the company's current financials, other pipeline drugs, and market conditions. Considering the above, a conservative estimate might place BPTH's valuation in the range of $3 billion to $10 billion, depending on market penetration optimism, with the understanding that this is highly speculative and subject to countless variables including regulatory approval, actual market acceptance, and competitive landscape. CONCLUSION & TA: This simply means, IF(!) this drug is succesfull the market cap of this company would significantly rise. Currently we're sitting at a 5.43 million market cap (at close, so lower now), thus its a 100 to 1000x potential or it drops to zero. Last note, price needs to stay above $1 to stay compliant with Nasdaq rules or else there could be an inverse stock split 2 to 1 for example or they face delisting by the end of Q3 2025. I'm not too worried because this is the same as SEALSQ faced before it 10x'd in the last few weeks. TA wise: we're retesting previous resistance and the bull market support band. Chart has been down only for years, capitulation after capitulation thus chance of a rebound should be there. I grabbed a small allocation to sit out for 2025, if the clinical trials are successful, we'll in for a big bull market. If not succesfull, we'll likely lose our money. A very decent risk / reward ratio of you invest an amount you can afford to lose and not more than 5% of your portfolio. This is one of my low cap stock picks, next to LAES (10x since entry) and MOBX (entry last week, flat pa for now). I will be scouting for more but for now, happy holidays!
NASDAQ:BPTHLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm