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Trend Analysis

Nat Gas Pre-Open Report: 3/2/25 Nat Gas futures dropped 8.5% this week, primarily due to a decline in heating demand and a continuation of the weather models printing below average degree days (DD) for the upcoming 15-day period. This weekends model runs were showing promise for a colder 8-15 day period, but were wiped out with Sunday’s midday models runs. The US models printed a modest 10 HDD warmer while the Euro printed 1 HDD colder. Which now put the two models in close to perfect agreement for the upcoming 15-day heating demand period, warmer! Both are predicting over 35 HDD warmer for the upcoming period. What was interesting to see was Saturday’s and early Sunday’s run show a coder shot coming in the 10-15 period. The models are beginning to see the cold pattern developing that I have been discussing for the back half of March and early April. The big news from the models the past four days have been the developing SSW event, but more importantly the effect it is beginning to have on two major Teleconnections, the NAO and the AO. I had briefly discussed these back in January, and the effect they had on the January frigid cold it helped bring to the US. I do discuss them in today’s video. I did hold my puts (shorts) over the weekend, with crossed fingers! Seeing the models trend colder and the Teleconnection trending colder, due to the upcoming SSW event, I almost chewed my finger nails off. But thankfully the models have a hard time with the synoptic physics of the atmosphere, and until they do, I will take full advantage of others only having the vison of the numbers they print out. I think the first big support we will see is at the 3685-3700 level tonight. I do believe that NG will gap lower tonight. Will it gap to the 3685-3700 level? We will see. But I am looking for 3685-3700 by open tomorrow for the NY open. Tonight’s models will be important to see if the models pick up the longer rang pattern change influenced from the SSW event. If there is momentum through the 3685-3700 level, next up will be the 3550 level. I discuss the technical reasons why I think these number are important in the video, but believe we are closer to the models picking up the coming cold than continuing to see the warmth. I am preparing to reenter with a block on long call position once I see the models confirming the upcoming cold after the March 15th period. There is reason to believe that if the models do continue to print a warmer period that the price could fall all the way to the 3330-3350 level. I will have a watchful eye on the daily weather models for verification. For if this breaks the 3350 level, then watch out below!!!! Storage should continue to drop, compared to the 5-year average, with the upcoming 3 EIA reports. Which should continue to be a bullish catalyst for the upcoming shoulder season. There is reason to believe that if the SSW event unfolds, and the heating season continues through the first three weeks of April, we just might have a very short shoulder season. As discussed last week, years that had a SSW event in March and April, tend to have a very warm May, which will jump us right into the Cooling season. So, with LNG continuing to export at daily records, storage continuing to drop, we just need an addition push to keep the bullish momentum going. And personally, I think we will see that later in the month of March. Production is a bearish catalyst now, with today’s production at 106 BCF/d. But there are too many demand side factors that are increasing faster than the overall increase in production. We will continue to monitor the heating season until draw season ends. Then it will be onto storage deficits, pipeline maintenance, coal-to-gas switching, nuclear power plant maintance shutdowns, verse the upcoming rig count and field activity. But that is for another month or so. Enjoy the video. Have a great day and good fortunes! Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGJ2025
by NrG_Trader
2
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 2,879.45 1st Support: 2,788.35 1st Resistance: 2,952.32 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
1
BITCOIN .... target open 75kBased on My description, here's a technical analysis framework for Bitcoin (BTC) with a *sell setup* targeting key downside levels, assuming the price fails to break above the resistance at *$94,500*: --- ### *Key Levels & Strategy* 1. *Resistance: *$94,500** - A confirmed rejection at this level (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, declining volume) would trigger a sell signal. - A break and close above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook. 2. *Downside Targets*: - *Target 1: $91,000* - Near-term support; a breakdown here signals momentum weakening. - Likely a minor bounce zone, but a close below $91k opens the door to deeper corrections. - *Target 2: $88,000* - Stronger support (e.g., previous swing low, Fibonacci level, or institutional buy zone). - *Target 3: $85,000* - Psychological level and potential institutional accumulation area. - *Target 4: $80,000* - Major support (e.g., 200-day moving average or long-term trendline). - *Target 5: $75,000* - Worst-case scenario (bear market territory if fundamentals deteriorate). --- ### *Technical Tools to Confirm the Setup* - *Volume*: Increasing volume on breakdowns below each target confirms bearish momentum. - *RSI/MACD*: Oversold conditions (RSI < 30) at targets like $85k or $80k could signal a reversal or pause. - *Chart Patterns*: Look for descending triangles, head-and-shoulders, or breakdowns from consolidation. - *Fibonacci Retracement*: Targets may align with key Fib levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) from recent swings. --- ### *Risk Management* - *Stop-Loss*: Place above $94,500 (resistance) or a tighter stop at $93,000 if price shows weakness before the resistance. - *Position Sizing*: Scale out profits at each target (e.g., sell 20% at each level). - *Market Context*: Monitor macroeconomic factors (e.g., Fed policy, ETF inflows/outflows, regulatory news) that could override technicals. --- ### *Scenario Planning* 1. *Bullish Invalidations*: - A close above $94,500 could trigger short squeezes toward $100k+. Watch for bullish catalysts (e.g., ETF demand, halving momentum). 2. *Bearish Acceleration*: - A break below $75k could signal a structural downtrend (e.g., recession fears, crypto-specific black swan). --- ### *Psychological Notes* - *Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)*: Avoid chasing the trade if price gaps past key levels. - *Confirmation Bias*: Use multiple indicators (not just price action) to validate entries/exits. Let me know if you'd like a chart markup or deeper dive into specific tools! 📉
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Algo_Trading_Mql5
6
SOL Looks Bearish (1D)A major trendline has been lost despite positive news, and SOL is prone to further drops towards the green box. A large liquidity pool exists below the price, which is likely to be taken out, pushing the price toward the marked zone. The price structure has turned bearish with a CH on the chart. A daily candle closing above the invalidation level will nullify this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
1
$NIO yieahhI had to, really had to - do another post for $NIO. This time on the monthly logarithmic. Love this structure on the monthly, 3M and 6M look GORGEOUS. That last word makes me worried a bit, this chart is just too good that makes it sketchy. But hey - I am still hyper bullish. Ran a time mark from the gray vertical line to the blues. Started on the retest from Wave 1 as that retest looks pretty similar to what we just saw in Feb. This takes us to $25 by October which is an insane 5-6x in pure stock play. If we break the mid line we are off to the upper part of the channel. Is this too good to be true? I don't know that's why I ask. yieahhhh
NYSE:NIOLong
by rubfigue
1
XRP Long-Term: Full Analysis—ATH Potential, Support & ResistanceWe are good with the short-term. We secured a great entry. It is time to consider how far up XRP will go and bull-market dynamics. How is XRPUSDT likely to behave in this 2025 bull-market. The first data point to consider is the fact that XRP peaked early in 2021, it did so in April. This time around, this won't be the case. XRPUSDT is likely to go the full cycle together with the rest of the market. That is because the action that led to the April 2021 peak started in March 2020, strong bullish action for more than a year. In this cycle, XRP started growing in November 2024. An entire year growing would put a final peak around November 2025. This is the date that I am looking for most of the projects to peak. I will adapt and change if necessary as the action develops but I am still thinking that the bull-run will run into late 2025 and even into early 2026. ➖ Support & Resistance There is a very strong resistance at $3.00. $2.35 is the main support. In December 2024, XRPUSDT peaked at $2.90, right below three. After a small retrace, it pierced the $3.00 barrier but closed below. Twice in January $3.00 worked as resistance and the third time a correction showed up. The action is now happening below $3.00 and this is the final resistance, the last barrier. Once this level break, ALL-IN, full force. XRPUSDT will produce a major advance and produce several new All-Time Highs. After the $3.00 barrier is broken, the main range were resistance will be found is between $4.44 and $4.68. This is a take profits target. Even if higher prices materialize later down the road, there will be a strong reaction around this level. I am only mentioning the main levels. Next, we have $6.15 and $6.36 as the strongest resistance. This one should be monitored carefully. Whales and advanced traders will be watching this level for massive profit taking. If this level is conquered, there is no limit as to how high prices can go. We can enter a parabolic cycle. Some extremely bullish event would need to develop to support this type of growth. Or, the fifth wave is the speculative wave, so anything goes. ➖ Market Talk The market will become tricky. Daily action will be erratic. Volatility in short. The big players will produce all sorts of moves in an attempt to remove weak hands, this will happen non-stop on the way up. It will be very hard to know what is going on and it will be easy to lose focus. To stay centered and grounded, just think long-term. When you zoom-in too close and start to get anxious, just remember the bigger cycle and the fact that the bull-market lasts the entire year. Detach, reduce leverage and hold. Once you are centered resume the game. Do not trade when you lose focus or you can end up closing your position on an impulse and there is no way to recover the great entry price. ➖ Speculation Looking at the chart structure, I think it will be easy for XRP to move beyond $8. If we consider 2025 fully bullish, then much more is possible but I don't want to get in too deep, if you know what I mean. But I sure want to say that the conditions are extremely good and hyper-bullish. If you are going to err, err on the higher end. Aim high, aim up. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
The Bullish case on ADA/USD Analysis Major Resistance: $3.16 (Previous High Level) Key Fibonacci Levels to Watch: Short-term: $2.54 (0.786 Fib), $2.04 (0.618 Fib) Mid-term: $4.99 (1.618 Fib), $7.98 (2.618 Fib) Long-term Targets: $10.89, $12.71, $13.84 Bullish Case for ADA/USD 1. Breakout from Accumulation Zone Cardano has been in a long accumulation phase since its bear market bottom. 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets Align with Previous ATH $3.16-$3.17 level is a key breakout zone—a strong close above this could trigger a rally toward $4.99 (1.618 Fib). Higher extensions targeting $7.98, $10.89, and $12.71 in a full bull run. 3. Higher Timeframe Bullish Structure The monthly chart shows a strong reversal pattern, breaking above key resistance levels. If ADA can flip $3.16 into support, the next leg could be explosive. Bullish Targets (Mid to Long Term) Short-term breakout: $3.50 - $4.00 Mid-term target: $4.99 - $7.98 Full Bull Cycle: $10.89 - $13.84 A strong close above $3.16 could confirm the next leg toward $5-$8 soon!
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by truthseeker6
USOIL: How to Trade Next Week?Crude oil has tested the support below $69 several times and then risen. It is about to start an upward trend. It is recommended to continue buying around $69 next week. Pay attention to the target range of $71 to $73. Currently, the account with an initial amount of 40K has reached 200K. In March, I will make a profit of one million, and I will share my daily trading orders. You can copy my orders for trading. Click on the link below the article to obtain the relevant information.
TVC:USOILShort
by Kill_the_dealer
1
BTCUSD Bullish Breakout: Targeting 88,000 and BeyondBTCUSD Bullish Target Analysis BTCUSD has successfully broken out of the **descending channel**, indicating a potential trend reversal to the upside. The price is currently retesting the 85,272 support zone, which aligns with a rounding bottom pattern—typically a bullish continuation signal. If this support holds and buyers step in, BTCUSD could see upward momentum toward its next key resistance level. The first bullish target is 88,000, which aligns with the previous price structure. A strong breakout above 88,000 could push BTCUSD toward 89,500–90,000, where sellers may re-enter the market. To confirm further bullish momentum, BTCUSD needs to maintain support above 85,000 and show increasing volume on the breakout. If it fails to hold this level, a potential retest of lower zones may occur before another push higher. TARGETS 88,000 - 89,500 - 90,000 STOP LOSS 83,000
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
3
Nifty50: Bearish Momentum Slowing – Signs of a Possible ReversalThe Nifty 50 index has been in a strong bearish trend, forming consecutive lower highs and lower lows on the 5-minute timeframe. However, recent price action suggests that selling pressure might be exhausting, with signs of a potential reversal emerging in the discount zone. While the broader trend remains bearish, there are early indications that buyers may attempt to regain control. A key observation is the presence of a weak low near the current price level. This could indicate that liquidity has been grabbed, setting the stage for a possible reversal. Additionally, multiple change-of-character (CHoCH) formations are appearing, which often signal a shift in market structure. While these signals alone do not confirm a bullish reversal, they suggest that the downtrend is losing strength. Price is currently positioned within the discount zone, an area where institutional buying interest typically increases. A key area of interest has formed near 22,100 – 22,070, where demand could emerge. If buyers manage to push the price above 22,200 and sustain it, this could indicate an initial attempt at reversal. Further confirmation would be required above 22,250 – 22,300, where a stronger shift in momentum could lead to a move toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 22,385. If this level is reclaimed, a bullish push toward the 22,500 – 22,600 resistance zone could follow. On the other hand, the risk of bearish continuation remains if price fails to hold above 22,100 and breaks below 22,070. This scenario would likely lead to further downside, with potential targets at 22,000 or lower. If CHoCH formations do not come with strong volume confirmation, there is a possibility that the market is simply grabbing liquidity before another downward move. From a trading perspective, an aggressive long entry could be considered if the price confirms a CHoCH above 22,200, with potential targets around 22,300 – 22,385. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a breakout above 22,385, confirming a stronger shift before targeting the 22,500+ zone. However, if price breaks below 22,100, it would indicate a bearish continuation, and short positions could be considered toward 22,000 – 21,950. The market is showing early signs of a potential reversal, but confirmation is crucial before committing to a bullish outlook. If buyers step in above key levels, a move toward equilibrium and premium zones may follow. However, if price fails to sustain above the key demand zone, selling pressure could resume. Traders should carefully watch for confirmations before positioning themselves for either direction.
NSE:NIFTY
by ginfoguy
1
BTC Update (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section As you know, the market is trendless and stuck in dumps and pumps, which has made traders frustrated. At this time, we need to follow the indicators and be a bit patient. Based on the previous analysis, it seems that Bitcoin dominance is heading downward. Despite Bitcoin’s weak upward movement, some altcoins may have a good upward move in the coming days. We hope this move happens and this indicator drops. Let's see what happens. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by behdark
1
Vix is predicting a Black Swan EventI believe contrary to common thought; TVC:VIX is chartable with definitive patterns it follows. The pattern in question? Basic double bottom consolidation phases followed by breakouts bull flags retest of the bull flag bottom and follow through from there. We are currently breaking out of 2 double bottom patterns on the chart; one double bottom is the consolidation being used as the stand in for retest of the bull flag bottom with the bull flagpole being the sharp rally back in March 2020. The 2nd double bottom the chart is simultaneously breaking out of is the huge double bottom consolidation with the first bottom being from '91 to '08 while 2nd bottom is from '09 to now. Based on all of the above evidence I believe Vix is predicting a black swan event of biblical proportions for the market
CBOE:VIXLong
by atogabati
1
BTC Breakout or Stop-Hunt? Analyzing White House News and MarketRecent White House signals have stirred the BTC market, setting the stage for a potential mega push—but not without a tactical retraction designed to trigger stop losses. This analysis breaks down the fake-out weekly candle, examines the liquidity hunt behind the massive wick, and weighs the risks versus rewards. Learn why only the big players or committed hodlers may capitalize on the breakout and discover key risk management strategies to safeguard your positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TradingNutCom
2