Internal and external liquidity Here's another mechanical lesson for you.
In my last post I covered a mechanical technique to identify swing ranges. Rule-based, simple and repeatable.
In this post, I want to share another little technique, again part of the mechanical series. But this time I want to talk about liquidity.
Most traders talk about liquidity, they might even have a grasp of what it is. But most do not know how liquidity forms the sentiment and how that creates a type of algo for the market.
You might have heard of Elliott wave theory. There is a saying along the lines of "you ask 10 Elliott traders for their count and you get 11 answers".
But the point is here, when you simplify the concept, it's clear to see that sentiment caused by liquidity swings is what causes a repeatable pattern in the market.
Let's take the idea of the ranges from my last post.
Now after a fair amount of accumulation, this level becomes "defended" - the price will gradually move up until old short stop losses are tagged and new long entries are entered into.
This allows the institutional players to open up their orders without setting off the alarm bells.
Price then comes back from external liquidity to find internal liquidity (more on this in a later post).
But then it looks for the next fresh highs.
As the highs are put in, we can use the range technique to move our range to the new area as seen in the image above.
Next we will be looking for an internal move, not just internal to the range, but a fractal move on the smaller timeframe that drives the pullback down. See this in blue.
The logic here is simple; on the smaller timeframes we have witnessed an accumulation at the 2 region and as we spike up for 3; we will witness a distribution on the smaller timeframes.
Wyckoff called this the accumulation, followed by a mark-up and then the distribution and a mark-down.
It is this pattern, over and over again that leads to this type of structure.
This will then be re-branded by various analysts who will call it things like a head and shoulders, smart money will see a change of character and a retest before breaking the structure.
This is all the same thing - just a different naming convention.
Again, I hope this helps some of you out there!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Trend Analysis
Bitcoin will no longer update ATH, and here's why⚡️ Hello, everyone! I decided to update my idea about Bitcoin. Let's see what awaits us!
Bitcoin rebounded strongly over the weekend and is now trying to consolidate at the $107,000 level. This is a key level, which is the MSB level for the entire current momentum since May, and as long as the price remains below it, it is a bearish movement.
Last week, we also closed the GAP to the $98,000 level from the previous movement, but on the way up, we formed a new one at $105,250 - 101,360. And as we know, 99% of GAPs close sooner or later.
📉 Bitcoin also continues to move in a descending flag, which, although it is a bullish pattern in an upward impulse and more often breaks through upwards, has not been working that way for a long time. Trading based on technical analysis is the basis of crypto and has become very widespread, which is actively used by many whales and counterplayers. As a result, many pattern signals have long lost their relevance and now often give false signals.
⚙️ Metrics and indicators:
Volume - divergence with price since the end of April. Throughout this upward momentum, purchase volumes continued to decline. This indicates a lack of liquidity and demand for Bitcoin at present.
Money Flow - also divergence with price. Also, since the end of April, positions have continued to close and liquidity has continued to decline. This indicates a lack of interest in the asset.
Liquidity Depth - we know that the price moves from liquidity to liquidity, which serves as its fuel. And now there is much more liquidity at the bottom than at the top.
Support/Resistance - Based on the volume of interest, it is clear that the $106,000 level is a major zone, and if it is lost, the nearest support level will only be at $103,004, but with significantly lower volumes.
📌 Conclusion:
Despite all the huge inflows into ETFs, there is now even less liquidity in Bitcoin than in November 2024, when Trump became president.
This suggests that everyone is actively closing their positions and there is no new money coming in. Search queries for the tags “crypto” and “bitcoin” are not even close to last year's levels, let alone 2021 levels. This means that there is no new retail interest in crypto right now.
I don't see any catalysts right now that could keep the price at this level. And ETFs are not an indicator at all; we've already seen how these “smart money” buyers bought at 110k on ATH and sold even more at 70k.
🔥 So, right now, I recommend sitting back and watching. Let the market sort itself out and indicate the direction of movement going forward.
XAUUSD Under Pressure: What the Market Is Telling UsGold (XAUUSD) is currently trading with a clear bearish bias, showing sustained downside momentum on the 4H timeframe 🕒. Price has been gradually stepping lower, and the structure continues to favor the sellers.
As expected for early in the week, there’s been a bit of choppy movement ⚖️, but the overall sentiment remains weak. Unless we see a strong shift or catalyst, I’ll be maintaining a bearish outlook.
🧭 I’m watching for price to revisit key resistance levels, and if we get a clean break and retest 🔄, I’ll be looking for potential short setups from areas of previous demand that flip into resistance.
🌐 Keep an eye on broader risk sentiment — if NASDAQ starts pulling back or DXY strengthens, it could fuel further downside in gold.
As always, this is not financial advice, but the detailed breakdown is available in the latest video 🎥.
Gold Rebounds from 3250 – But Bears Still in Control1. What happened last week
As you know, I’ve been bearish on Gold all last week long. Even though the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated over the weekend, the fact that price couldn’t reclaim the 3400 resistance was a major red flag.
It showed us that the bullish sentiment was fragile, and that downside pressure is just around the corner.
And indeed — Gold sold off. The weekly close below the 3300 level confirmed the weakness.
2. The key question now
Has Gold found a bottom at 3250, or is this just a temporary rebound before another leg down?
3. Why I expect a continuation lower
- The weekly close was under 3300, breaking key support
- 3250 is being tested again — a level touched multiple times since the mid-April ATH
- The current rebound looks corrective, not impulsive
- Resistance levels at 3320 and 3340 are likely to hold as ceilings
- No major catalyst yet to justify a reversal
- This looks like a classic “sell the rally” setup in a weakening trend.
4. Trading plan
The idea is simple: sell the spikes.
If price bounces into 3320–3340, I will look to short again, anticipating a renewed test of the 3250 support zone.
If 3250 breaks — we could see acceleration toward 3200 or lower.
5. Final thoughts 🚀
No need to complicate things. Gold remains vulnerable unless it clears 3340. Until then, the trend is your friend — and that trend points down.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TURBO/USDT - H4 - Wedge Breakout (29.06.2025)The TURBO/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.005173
2nd Resistance – 0.005994
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GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, I break down last week’s gold price action and give you a detailed outlook for the week ahead. With gold closing around $3,260 and major macroeconomic shifts unfolding—including the Israel-Iran ceasefire talks, rising US dollar strength, and concerns over the US Q1 GDP contraction, we are at a turning point.
📉 Will weakening economic data force the Fed to pivot?
📈 Could this create a fresh bullish wave for gold?
Or will stronger job numbers and inflation data drag gold lower?
✅ What you’ll learn in this video:
✅Key fundamental drivers affecting gold (XAU/USD)
✅Important economic events to watch (Fed Chair speech, NFP, ISM)
✅My technical analysis of gold price levels to watch
✅How to read the current market sentiment like a pro
✅Strategic trading zones for bulls and bears
🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of this work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
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Gold Is Set to Bottom Out and Rebound This WeekGood morning, everyone!
At today’s open, gold once again dipped into the 3258–3248 buy zone, then rebounded toward 3270. From a structural perspective, gold has clearly entered a downward trend, but this decline is unlikely to be one-directional—short-term rebounds and consolidations are expected along the way.
Based on my experience, below 3250 remains a favorable area for initiating long positions. Whether the price rebounds directly or continues lower before building a stronger base to challenge 3300 again, the broader outlook remains bullish as long as the 3200 support holds. A bottoming reversal this week is still the more probable scenario.
As such, the focus early this week should be on buying near the lows, with short opportunities on rebounds as a secondary strategy. Monitor key support levels for signs of strength.
This week is also packed with important data—including PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), and the unemployment rate, in addition to regular economic releases. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, significant market volatility is expected—bringing both risk and opportunity. Manage your exposure carefully and stay adaptable.
Tron (TRX): Buyers Are Getting Ready For Breakout | +40% ComingTron coin is seeing a decent volume of buys recently, and we are still expecting to see a volatile breakout, which would give us an opening and potential of 40% movement from here, so we wait for BREAK OF STRUCTURE.
More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy!
Swallow Team
Gold fluctuates upward. Is the decline over?On Monday, gold opened at around 3282, and then fell back quickly to around 3247 under pressure; the downward low was blocked, and then rebounded strongly to around 3297; the market currently maintains a small upward trend.
At present, we need to focus on the resistance range of the upward trend.
From the 4-hour chart, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, followed by the suppression range of 3310-3315. The main direction of short-term operations maintains the rebound short-selling strategy. The support below is around 3255; the overall short-term operation relies on 3260-3300 to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation unchanged.
Operation strategy:
Short near 3305, stop loss 3320, profit range 3270-3260.
A new week has just begun. I wish you all gain something from the market fluctuations.
BTCUSDT SHORT SIGNAL Setup Type: Liquidity Trap & Distribution
Trade Idea (SHORT):
Entry Zone: $108,000 – $110000
Stop Loss: Above $113000
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $104,000
TP2: $100,000
TP3: 98000
TP4: 74000
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Always do your own research and apply proper risk management.
Trading involves risk, and you are solely responsible for your decisions.
Use this information as a guide — not a guaranteed outcome.
Wait for clear confirmation before executing any trade.
Buy limit order post-1H liquidity sweep I’m 1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish trend with consecutive green candles indicating sustained buying pressure. This suggests institutional accumulation and a lack of significant sell-side resistance.
4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a continuation of the bullish momentum with recent candles forming higher highs. This indicates ongoing institutional demand and a potential preparation for a further push upwards.
1H Timeframe: On the hourly chart, we observe a slight pullback in the form of a small bearish candle. This could represent a minor profit-taking phase or a setup for a liquidity sweep to capture stops below recent lows before continuing the uptrend.
15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more pronounced pullbacks, yet these are contained within the overall bullish structure observed on higher timeframes. This could be indicative of retail selling or minor institutional rebalancing.
5M and 1M Timeframes: Both these lower timeframes display increased volatility and a sharper pullback. This is typical in lower timeframes where retail trading is more pronounced, and institutional traders may use these moves to engineer liquidity before making significant market moves.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, using minor pullbacks to engineer liquidity and trap retail traders on the wrong side of the market. The expectation is for continued upward movement once these phases complete.
LEARNING POINT:
"1H liquidity sweep before continuation of 4H bullish momentum."
SIGNAL: BUY
SYMBOL: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!) ENTRY PRICE: $22,850.00 STOP LOSS: $22,800.00 (below the recent minor low to account for any further liquidity sweeps) TARGET PRICE: $23,000.00 (next psychological round number and potential resistance area) CONDITION: Buy limit order post-1H liquidity sweep confirming a bullish continuation on the 15M timeframe. RATIONALE: The setup aligns with a bullish market structure on higher timeframes, a potential liquidity sweep on the 1H chart, and a continuation of buying pressure indicated by the 4H and 1D charts. STRATEGIES USED: 1H Liquidity Sweep, 4H Bullish Continuation URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term to medium-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on alignment across multiple timeframes and clear bullish signals) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Calculated as follows:
Risk: $22,850.00 (entry) - $22,800.00 (stop) = $50.00
Reward: $23,000.00 (target) - $22,850.00 (entry) = $150.00
Ratio: $150.00 / $50.00 = 3:1
This trade setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio exceeding the minimum 2:1 threshold, aligning with institutional trading principles and confirming a high-probability entry for a bullish continuation.
CHF/JPY – Bearish Reversal Setup in Progress (1H Timeframe)We’re closely monitoring the CHF/JPY pair, which has been in a bullish trend. However, key signs of a potential reversal are now surfacing.
A rising wedge—a classic bearish reversal pattern—has formed on the 1-hour chart, and a strong bearish divergence is also present, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Additionally, sentiment data shows 85% of retail traders are short, giving us a slight contrarian warning.
The bulls vs. bears score is roughly 1:2, suggesting bearish strength is building. We’re waiting for a confirmed break of the previous higher low (HL), which would validate a structural shift into a bearish trend.
🔹 Pair: CHF/JPY
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Trend: Bullish (reversal anticipated)
🔹 Pattern: Rising Wedge
🔹 Divergence: Bearish
🔹 Sentiment: 85% Short (Myfxbook)
🔹 Bias: Bearish
🔹 Entry (Sell Stop): 179.557
🔹 Stop Loss: 181.468
🔹 Take Profit: 177.646
🔹 Lot Size: 0.15
🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1
🔹 Risk: $200
🔹 Potential Reward: $200
🎯 Strategy: Entry will trigger only if price breaks below the previous HL and confirms a new lower low (LL), signaling the start of a bearish trend.
📌 #CHFJPY #ForexSignals #RisingWedge #BearishDivergence #TrendReversal #SmartMoneyMoves #RetailSentiment #BreakoutTrade #PriceActionSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #1HChart #ForexTradeIdeas #BearishBias #RiskManagement
Bitcoin SV (BSV): Expecting Sideways Movement + BreakoutBSV has formed a triangle pattern where the price has been bouncing in from one side to another, preparing itself for a breakout from this pattern.
We are looking for further movement in the sideways channel, where at one point we will be looking for a breakout from the triangle pattern, where then we will be looking for slight upward movement.
But keep in mind, if we see the price break the local support zone, then we might be seeing a steep movement to $30.50.
Swallow Academy
PalantirOn Friday Palantir dropped pretty hard causing MACD to drop all the way to our bottom trend line. It created overlap with the pattern which brings a further rise to the target box into question. On thing I can say about this pattern with certainty, is it is very sloppy. It in no way appears as an impulsive pattern due to the choppy overlapping nature of it. This is what leads me to believe it is an ED.
If it is an ED that leaves us with two possibilities. It is either within its wave 4, which would explain the overlap, or it just finished (v) of (5) of ((1)). We need more price action to determine which count prevails. A drop below $117.22 and that is a huge warning that the upside is done. Below $105.32 and that confirms it for me.
To raise higher again breaching our ATH shows that the ED is not yet done and we're most likely rising to the $160 area. Don't forget, when an ED finished, it moves towards the place of origin in a strong move.
PEPE/USDExpecting something like this on most alts.
I've been waiting patiently for a real correction in everything, but my timing was drastically off. Looks like FOMO is still in charge. My guess, stock market to ATH after ATH for a while and a final wave of FOMO for crypto will enter the air.
I believe the majority are expecting a COVID-like rebound, followed by rally continuation, but the majority tends to be wrong.
What I can tell you is the true crypto bull run will not begin on optimism, as it has been...
It will begin on pessimism.
BBAI Round 2Big Bear AI is a military based AI company aimed at increasing productivity and efficiency for military endeavours in the USA.
Although this company is currently un-profitiable, it does seem to be providing a nice technical setup for a potential squeeze here after a previous breakout of the lower range volume profile.
I would like to take a long trade here as we break $4.20 and pump it up to approx $7.
Stoploss set to 3.70 in case this is a failed rally.
Futures watchlist weekending 7-3-2025Here is my breakdown for the futures market week ending 7-3-2025. Not much has shifted from last week, we continue to note the bullish sentiment and look to scalp the pullbacks and load the dips!!!
I also give you a look into our indicator called Futures Pro! We have an awesome library of tools!
Xrp - The expected rally of +50%!Xrp - CRYPTO:XRPUSD - is still clearly bullish:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Ever since Xrp rallied more than +550% in the end of 2024, we have been witnessing a quite expected consolidation. However Xrp still remains rather bullish and can easily retest the previous all time highs again. Maybe, we will even see another parabolic triangle breakout.
Levels to watch: $3.0, $10.0
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
THETA Holding the Line – A Hidden Gem Before the Next Altseason?
🔍 Chart Structure and Key Zones:
Timeframe: 1W (Weekly)
Major Historical Support: The yellow zone between $0.55 - $0.70 has been tested multiple times since 2021.
The current price is once again retesting this strong support area, showing signs of a potential bullish bounce.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If the support at $0.696 holds and triggers a reversal:
Potential short-term targets are:
$1.029 as the first minor resistance
Breakout above $1.658 could lead to a rally toward:
$3.047
$3.50
$4.216
If bullish momentum sustains, long-term targets include:
$8.154
$12.742
And possibly a retest of the all-time high at $15.880
> This price action suggests the formation of a potential Double Bottom pattern — a classic bullish reversal signal on higher timeframes.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below the support zone of $0.696 – $0.55:
The bullish setup becomes invalidated.
There is little significant support below $0.55, which could lead to an aggressive selloff.
This would indicate a possible final capitulation phase before a true macro bottom is formed.
📊 Chart Pattern Insight:
Potential Double Bottom forming in a high-confluence support zone
Signs of accumulation structure with long lower wicks (indicating buyers stepping in)
Bullish impulse projection is marked if a breakout confirms
🔖 Conclusion:
The $0.55 - $0.70 zone is a critical turning point for THETA.
If held, this could mark the beginning of a long-term trend reversal.
The current setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for swing and long-term traders, though caution is needed if the support fails.
#THETAUSDT #THETA #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoBreakout #BullishReversal #AltcoinSeason #SupportAndResistance #DoubleBottom #SwingTrade
NASDAQ: Minor Pullback, Still on TrackOn Friday, the Nasdaq experienced a slight pullback, which was quickly absorbed at the start of the week. Currently, the index is still developing the turquoise wave B, which should top out just below resistance at 23,780 points, signaling the start of the bearish wave C. This move should lead to the low of the magenta wave (4) within our turquoise Target Zone between 17,074 and 15,867 points. Alternatively, there is a 42% probability that wave alt.(4) is already complete. In this scenario, the magenta wave alt.(5) could carry the index immediately above the mentioned resistance.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.