Trend Analysis
EURUSD: Channel Down topped. Huge sell ahead.EURUSD corrected the previously overbought levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.799, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 25.183) and 1W is expected to follow suit as the price is making a double rejection at the top of the 2 year Channel Down. We anticipate a new -9.25% long term bearish wave to begin (TP = 1.01300).
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This could be the last of the crypto bull market...There is a MACD zero-line reversal on the 90-minute chart, and the price could drop to around 72K, which is the last key support for this bull market. Once the price reaches this level, check lower timeframes for reversal confirmation before entering a long trade.
S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle).
It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them.
In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances).
If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022).
As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been.
The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours.
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Gold prices fall back today and continue to be bullish!Today, the market closed with a big positive. After stabilizing at 3055, it can continue to look at 3100. There are also signs of bottoming out in the 4-hour medium term. The Bollinger Bands have also closed temporarily, and the bottom has formed a head and shoulder bottom support of 2955-2970. Today, we need to look at the gains and losses of the 3025-3055 suppression points first, and then see whether a unilateral surge can be formed. Therefore, today's trading still needs to arrange long orders and wait for the trend last week. The current price is 3010, and then wait for the impact of tariffs. You can refer to the decline to 2990 to continue to go long and bullish, and pay attention to the gains and losses of 3025 and 3055 above.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to go long at 2990-2992, stop loss at 2985, and target 3010-3020.
VPO charts with MAsI have added the US02Y treasury to my RSI and WOW.
I set up some volume templates using CC colors. Kept it very minimal. Sessions in light blue teal. Days in blue. Weeks in yellow. Months in purple. Could add more or change as desired.
I turned off boxes for most but I like the weekle box. In fact the more I can turn price into boxes the better. Let me now finish talking to Grok and I'll send some examples.
Learn 3 Best Time Frames for Day Trading Forex & Gold
If you want to day trade Forex & Gold, but you don't know what time frames you should use for chart analysis and trade execution, don't worry.
In this article, I prepared for you the list of best time frames for intraday trading and proven combinations for multiple time frame analysis.
For day trading forex with multiple time frame analysis, I recommend using these 3 time frames: daily, 1 hour, 30 minutes.
Daily Time Frame Analysis
The main time frame for day trading Forex is the daily.
It will be applied for the identification of significant support and resistance levels and the market trend.
You should find at least 2 supports that are below current prices and 2 resistances above.
In a bullish trend, supports will be applied for trend-following trading, the resistances - for trading against the trend.
That's the example of a proper daily time frame analysis on GBPCHF for day trading.
The pair is in an uptrend and 4 significant historic structures are underlined.
In a downtrend, a short from resistance will be a daytrade with the trend while a long from support will be against.
Look at GBPAUD. The market is bearish, and a structure analysis is executed.
Identified supports and resistances will provide the zones to trade from. You should let the price reach one of these areas and start analyzing lower time frames then.
Remember that counter trend trading setups always have lower accuracy and a profit potential. Your ability to properly recognize the market direction and the point that you are planning to open a position from will help you to correctly assess the winning chances and risks.
1H/30M Time Frames Analysis
These 2 time frames will be used for confirmations and entries.
What exactly should you look for?
It strictly depends on the rules of your strategy and trading style.
After a test of a resistance, one should wait for a clear sign of strength of the sellers : it can be based on technical indicators, candlestick, chart pattern, or something else.
For my day trading strategy, I prefer a price action based confirmation.
I wait for a formation of a bearish price action pattern on a resistance.
Look at GBPJPY on a daily. Being in an uptrend, the price is approaching a key resistance. From that, one can look for a day trade .
In that case, a price action signal is a double top pattern on 1H t.f and a violation of its neckline. That provides a nice confirmation to open a counter trend short trade.
Look at this retracement that followed then.
In this situation, there was no need to open 30 minutes chart because a signal was spotted on 1H.
I will show you when one should apply this t.f in another setup.
Once the price is on a key daily support, start looking for a bullish signal.
For me, it will be a bullish price action pattern.
USDCAD is in a strong bullish trend. The price tests a key support.
It can be a nice area for a day trade.
Opening an hourly chart, we can see no bullish pattern.
If so, open even lower time frame, quite often it will reveal hidden confirmations.
A bullish formation appeared on 30 minutes chart - a cup & handle.
Violation of its neckline is a strong day trading long signal.
Look how rapidly the price started to grow then.
In order to profitably day trade Forex, a single time frame analysis is not enough . Incorporation of 3 time frames: one daily and two intraday will help you to identify trading opportunities from safe places with the maximum reward potential.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD H2 Outlook: Correction in progress 2900 USD in sight🏆 Gold Market Update (April 8th, 2025)
📊 Technical Outlook Update
▪️5 wave impulse completed
▪️Correction as expected previously
▪️currently trading at 3 000 usd
▪️Profit taking in progress now
▪️Price Target BEARS 2850/2900 USD
▪️Strategy: SHORT SELL rips/rallies
▪️target is 2900 USD
📢 Gold Market Update – April 2025
📈 Gold hits all-time high above $3,100/oz
🚀 Surge driven by Trump’s new global tariffs and rising trade war fears
🌍 Investors seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty
📉 Pullback follows rally
💸 Sharp drop due to profit-taking and risk sentiment rebound
🔁 Analysts remain bullish as Fed rate cuts and tensions linger
🏦 Central banks keep buying
🛡️ China & others increasing gold reserves to hedge inflation & currency risks
Polygon: Your Altcoin ChoicePolygon has been bearish since early December 2024, same with most of the Altcoins market. This bearish period is coming to an end and I can say this based on two simple signals. A bullish divergence with the RSI and a falling wedge pattern.
The falling wedge pattern on its own can be doubtful because it can always extend. In fact, any signal in isolation can produce more harm than good. That is why I always look at a combination of signals to support my bias.
There is also a small volume breakout yesterday. This is a weak signal but when combined with the RSI bullish divergence and marketwide action, what the rest of the market is doing, it becomes a strong early signal.
➖ MATICUSD Daily RSI Bullish Divergence
Polygon's daily RSI hit bottom in early November 2024. Ever since, it has been producing higher lows. This makes it a very strong bullish divergence. MATICUSD has been moving lower and producing strong lower lows. This is the reversal signal. Polygon will soon grow.
Thanks a lot for your Altcoin Choice.
Namaste.
Gold TrendSince the decline from 3167, gold has gone through a wave of ABC decline from a technical point of view. It is now in the C wave of decline. From the technical indicators, the end of this wave is between 2920 and 2940. However, there is a need for adjustment in the C wave. Yesterday, the gold price rose and fell. After three days of decline, the gold price has fallen by hundreds of points. At the beginning of this week, we still need to pay attention to the strength of the rebound. Now the gold price has stopped falling after rebounding at 3022 and lost the 3000 integer mark. The main idea today is still a high-altitude bearish.
Bulls Take Control – Can EURUSD Reach 1.1150 Again?1. What happened (recap):
Last week, EURUSD reached the 1.1150 zone, a level that hasn't been touched since August-September last year. After that, the pair started a correction. Although the week started with a gap down yesterday, bulls took control and pushed the pair higher.
2. Key Question:
Has EURUSD completed its correction, or is another drop coming?
3. Why I expect further upside:
• 🔑 A retest of the formed support at 1.09 occurred during yesterday’s New York session, followed by a fresh rebound.
• 📊 The drop from 1.1150 appears corrective in nature, suggesting the possibility of a new leg up.
• 🎯 As long as 1.09 holds, my strategy is to buy dips with the primary target being a retest of the 1.1150 resistance zone.
4. Trading Plan:
📌 I’m looking for buying opportunities on dips, aiming to retest the 1.1150 resistance area. This scenario is invalidated only by a daily close below 1.09.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5445.2.Explaining what is happening in terms of wave theory is quite difficult, but always possible. Of course, geopolitics has been affecting the price a lot lately, but even in this chaos there are regularities.
Let's take a look at the wave markup. I believe that there is a big correction going on at the moment. Most likely it is not finished yet and has just started to form wave “B”, which means that wave “C” is coming, but I still want to see an upward movement to the resistance area at 5445.2. The price has been in a downtrend for too long and I think a correction is very likely. Well, let's see.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 4-8 : Counter Trend Bottom/RallyThis video was created to help you better understand why it is important to WAIT for the SPY Cycle Patterns to setup efficiently.
It is critically important that all of you learn the three basic rules of trading.
1. Never try to force a position/trade. If your research tells you some type of price event/trend is likely - don't jump into the trade too early. Wait for confirmation and wait for price to confirm your analysis is correct.
2. Start with a small position. Never GO BIG on your initial trade. If you are wrong, you can manage the trade with a small win/loss. If price moves in the direction you expect, you can add more once you get confirmation the trend will continue (potentially).
3. BOOK PROFITS early and keep BOOKING PROFITS as the trend continues higher. You can always get back into the trade with CALL/PUT options - but if you don't learn to BOOK PROFITS EARLY (20-30% profits in the trade), then you'll very likely FAIL to build your account efficiently.
(Trust me, #3 is VERY IMPORTANT)
Beyond these three simple concepts, one of the most important aspects of trading with my SPY cycle patterns is to learn to WAIT for the pattern to setup efficiently.
Today is a great example.
The BOTTOM/Rally Start pattern was in Counter-trend mode. Thus, I expected it to be INVERTED - turning it into a TOP/Selloff Start pattern.
In order for that pattern to play out, we needed to see the markets open higher (and potential trend higher for a bit of time), then roll over into a top pattern. After that tops pattern setup, the markets should continue to move into a moderate selloff trend (downward).
Think about it. Were you smart trying to SELL INTO the rally this morning or were you smart to wait for the ROLLOVER and sell into the breakdown trend?
IMO, smart traders waited for the top to setup/confirm and started selling as we got into the breakdown trend phase.
Again, I'm trying to help you learn to become a better trader.
I hope this video helps.
Get some.
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BTC at a Critical Inflection Point – Bulls vs. BearsBitcoin is currently trading around $77,644, sitting right between two major trendlines:
🟢 Long-Term Bullish Support – This green ascending trendline has held since late 2023, providing key support throughout BTC’s macro uptrend.
🔴 Medium-Term Bearish Resistance – The red descending trendline has capped price since the 2025 highs, forming a clear structure of lower highs.
We're now at a pivotal confluence zone where these two trendlines intersect. Price recently bounced off the green support, but it's struggling to decisively break above the red resistance.
🔍 Key Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout:
A strong daily close above the red trendline could confirm bullish continuation.
Targets: $84K, GETTEX:92K , and potentially ATH breakout above $100K.
❌ Bearish Rejection:
Rejection at resistance may lead to a retest of the green trendline (~$74K).
A breakdown from there opens the door to GETTEX:64K –$60K, or even deeper pullbacks.
Gold Ideas ahead of CPI on April 10thCurrently, Gold is at 3082, with a mix of uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. The market is in a wait-and-see mode as traders position ahead of the data, which could drive volatility. With the macro context in mind, we’ll be focusing on key support and resistance levels, aiming to capture price action based on SMC &more.
🔻 Sell Zone #1 – Intraday Fade
📍 Sell (confirmation only): 3,095 – 3,108
📉 SL: 3,110
🎯 TP1: 3,080
🎯 TP2: 3,060
🎯 TP3: 3,040
⚠️ Tip: Move SL to breakeven when TP1 hits fast
🔺 Sell Zone #2 – Double Tap and Dump
📍 Entry: 3,125 – 3,139 (Ideal: 3,135 – 3,139)
📉 SL: 3,145
🎯 TP1: 3,105
🎯 TP2: 3,080
🎯 TP3: 3,055
⚠️ Tip: Use only with clear rejection (M5/M15 M-pattern or bearish engulfing)
🟢 Buy Scenario 1 – “Reclaim Retest”
📍 Entry: 3,066 – 3,068.50
📉 SL: 3,062
🎯 TP1: 3,089
🎯 TP2: 3,113
🎯 TP3: 3,127
🧠 Trigger: M1/M5 CHoCH or Bullish Engulfing
📌 Confluence: M5 Order Block + Fair Value Gap (Discount Zone)
🟩 Buy Zone – Deep Value Pullback (Fresh Setup)
📍 Entry: 3,035 – 3,040
📉 SL: 3,025
🎯 TP1: 3,080
🎯 TP2: 3,095
🎯 TP3: 3,110
⚠️ Tip: Wait for strong bullish reaction (M5/M15)
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
📣 If this strategy sparked clarity, hit that like button and follow. 💛
Short XAU (Gold) Gold Futures are showing a very clean impulsive move through Elliot Wave TA. You can see the running flat on the 2nd wave leading to a very strong move on the Wave 3 major move. The Wave 5 is shorter than the Wave 3 to confirm the possible completion of this 5 Wave move up.
A weaker DXY (USD) is throwing an obstacle to this beautiful setup. Let's see some stability to the bonds market which should lead to stability in the equities market. This should help propel traders taking profits on this Gold rush.
Wif short to 30 cents.Just now opened a short position on Wif. Anticipating a fall all the way back down to 30 cents. Its currently high and bulls are losing strength.
Setup is in accordance to DTT- Direction, Target and Timing.
It might mess around for a little bit still for next 1.5hrs but good place for entry.
Feel free to use a wider stop if anyone following