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Trendchange

NZDUSD short... risky businessIdea: This weeks topic of conversation has been nu short trades. There has been a lot of talk on the chat about NZDUSD heavily retracing and some interesting psychological FOMO going on. The daily RSI is over bought and the weekly looks like it is approaching over bought again. To me this is easily a dip buy until the weekly is over bought. I can't see the reversal that is being widely talked about...but that doesn't mean its not there. In an effort to see the flip side of the trade, the only short entry I could find was on an hourly chart. To me it looks more like a 4hr retrace than the whole trend suffering a steep reversal. Pros: If the price goes as high as 0.7366 then the trade at least makes sense mathematically (13:1) on risk reward. Cons: There doesn't appear to be any clear or serious reversal signals. The trend will most likely hit the weekly over bought. Trading against such a strong trend can easily whipsaw the trade and I am expecting the trade idea to fail. There are more interesting short trades this week than one that is fighting a strong daily trend... in my opinion. DISCLAIMER: This is where I practice ideas and work on my trading techniques. Please note I am only providing my own trading information for insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal. Trade at your own risk.
Short
by fionnablack
DXY - oversold and due for a change in trendAlong with EURUSD and USDCHF, DXY is at a stage where a big change in trend is forecasted as all 3 pairs correlate like twin pairs and move in sync. EURUSD - Triangle (Terminal Move) USDCHF - Ending Diagonal (Terminal Move) and DXY - Ending Diagonal (Terminal Move) Other factors to take in to consideration. 1. Divergency are showing on all 3 pairs in almost every timeframe. 2. Final wave 5 looks complete on all 3 pairs also 3. Forecast for USD with NFP this week looks negative for the dollar so this could help boost the trend change I have forecasted. Share and comment Happy Trading NOTE: Entry, SL and TP are not shown as I am not offering a signal service.
TVC:DXYShort
by donaldsaw
MM-Reversal-Probability-Index [MM-RPIDX]This indicator tries to show the probability of an impending reversal. It's using a number of different input signals and candle stick patterns and conditions: 6 different moving averages Averages of moving averages MACD RSI Stochastics Keltner channels Pin bar patterns Engulfment patterns The indicator is designed as an oscillator and treats positive values as a signal for an impending bearish reversal and negative points for an impending bullish reversal. At the moment it includes 46 different conditions to calculate the overall index. The 46 conditions flow into 15 signal lines which are summarized to the overall reversal index. This indicator is not just a simple line with a couple of peaks. It’s designed to interactively work with it. It's got tons of tweaking options in the settings section. Examples of usage: Use it for primary reversal detection Use it for reversal confirmation Use it for candle stick pattern detection Use alert levels to increase/decrease the number of reversal detections Detect MACD crossings Detect Moving Average crossings on different levels Detect indecisive areas of sideway chopping Examples of conditions: is there a crossing of the MACD? are there multiple MACD crossings? are there any significant crossings of moving averages? is the market chopping sideways? are there any reversal relevant candle stick patterns? did these patterns appear inside or outside the Keltner channels? are these patterns confirmed by the subsequent candle? was there a crossing of the %K and %D line of the stochastics in the last periods? is or was the RSI in the overbought or oversold zone? ... Concept: Instead of watching 10 different signal lines of indicators and candle stick patterns simultaneously I wanted to have one indicator which aggregates all (or at least a lot of) the relevant information. So the idea was to create an index and assign a specific amount of points to specific attributes or situations (e.g MACD crossed or pin bar candle stick pattern occurred and was confirmed by the subsequent candle and was outside the Keltner channels). After gathering all the information (or points) everything is boiled down to one index. Notice: there is no holy grail in TA!
by Meunier
4
NZDCAD (4h) at critical positonA couple weeks ago, I was probably inclined to short NZDCAD. Now the picture seems different. There is some disrespect for the weekly band of resistance and there is a complex upward trend that could strengthen. Sound traders shift their mindsets as new information emerges. I'm long on NZDCAD, having contracted to lose a controlled amount (alias stop-loss). This means that I do not know what will happen next. I cannot control the future. All I can do is control my loss. This is not a tutorial. I do not give tips on how or where to place stop-losses. Disclaimer : Dance with danger but at your own risk. As Akil Stokes once said, "You're to blame" LOL. In other words, take positions if you wish but your losses are your own. I make no assurances that this perspective above will lead to a gain. I accept that 80% of my analyses will be wrong and therefore an 80% loss rate. You have been warned/told.
Long
by Captain_Walker
CHFJPY - Bearish correction into a new bull trendCHFJPY has made an impressive move to reach the 113 level in a short period. However, this pair is due for a correction. With price rejecting this resistance level and bullish pressure easing over the last couple days, this is likely to be the start of a good sized correction/retracement before price continues higher. The red rectangle depicts the projected retracement area where price is likely to continue upward. This will act as the profit target if a short trade is triggered. For a valid short setup the following criteria should be met: Today's heiken ashi candle should be red and have little to no upper wick. Price should extend lower than yesterday's low. AC oscillator should remain red and close less than 0. The fast Laguerre should break lower (Ideally, it should close below 0.85). *optional but would be a nice confirmation* If these criteria are met, a pending order will be placed a few pips below the new low posted tomorrow. SL should be placed safely above the identified resistance area.
Short
by nboone
1
NZDUSD: Ask 2 ?'s "Where Should Price Go & How Can It Get There"With Jason out of town I’ll be pulling double duties helping out with the morning War Room as well and today I had about six potential trades on my radar. I typically don’t actively trade on Monday’s but I will be keeping an eye on the NZDUSD for multiple trading opportunities. Bigger picture I’m still looking for a chance to short this pair once we retrace to our previous support level, but currently we put in a nice base, which was broken above and could provide as a good place to get long if the market were to retrace to that level. . Sort of like a 2618 type of move. Whenever I make my predictions about the market I don’t just ask myself “where is price most likely to go?” I also asked myself “How is price most likely to get there?” These simple questions have often given me the opportunity to catch the move before the move. Obviously a lot can happen, but I always like to start off my week with a plan of “what to look for” that way I’m dialed in. What now? Well now I sit back and see what the market has to do. Remember as traders it’s our job to react, not to tell the market what it “will” do. If you get the chance check out my Interview on Brandon Clay’s Trading Story website talking about my trading story & setting up a plan of action for you trades tradingstory.com Best of luck this week traders, and let me know what you think about the interview. Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
28
DOW Squeezing up.. Which way to go next?Dow has been in a long term uptrend and has been squeezing up between trend lines that it has been bouncing up and down. The question is will it continue doing so and if yes for how long as the space is almost squeezed out. The next deciding level for DOW is around 18550 to 18700. That is when it has to decide either to break out, continue consolidation by going low till 18200 again or break down and correct more to other trend line support zones or may be do a bigger correction till 15000.. I would assume the time has come to make up the mind.. Trade with Caution! Happy Trading!!
DJ:DJI
by SirajHudda
1
NZD/JPY Prepare for SHORTEverything on chart :) I follow the rule less is more! Safe and secure entry would be waiting price breakdown trendline + EMA 12 but you might me little to late So i would suggest here little more agressive entry, drawing trendline accurate on H4 and wait that price reach around EMA 200 (please check your charts) and after price BREAKDOWN TRENDLINE + EMA 12 enter short. Have in mind if you dont get nice breakdown do not enter, do not force and wait that candle closes below trendline + ema 12 not just that it breakdown but close, huh i complicated that :D! We have very strong resistance above already listed on chart! Risk reward is extreamly in our favour, maybe this is another 1000 pip or more trade :) Enter : as i said... agressive on H4 trendline breakdown + EMA 12 More safe but waiting longer on DAILY 123 break of TL and EMA 12 Stop loss : above EMA 200 Enter with 3 same lot size positions at once Risk : reward (TP1 = 1:1, TP2 = 1 : 2, TP 3 = 1: trailing) Trailing : Trail both positions to breakeven after TP1 hit (very safe but chance to get stoped out and miss major trend) Trail last position only once TP1 and TP2 is hit (i would pick that! :) ) How to trail? Normal : above EMA 36 Long term safe : above EMA 200 Type of trailing : manual only Best regards A.i
Short
by AcademyInvestment
10
NVDA rest before continuation move downFundamentals: Nvidia Corp posted higher fiscal second-quarter earningsyesterday after market close and gave a forecast for current-quarter revenues that exceeded Wall Street's estimates, sending shares of the graphics chipmaker higher in after-hours trade. The outlook in the PC industry has brightened following news that PC shipments were flat in the June quarter, a better-than-expected result. After struggling to compete against larger chipmakers like Qualcomm in smartphones and tablets, Nvidia has increased its focus on using its Tegra chips to power entertainment and navigation systems in cars made by companies including Volkswagen's Audi, BMW and Tesla. Technicals: From technicals perspective chart looks broken after it found supply zone at $19.50-.75, then broke important levels of support. Now, price is sitting on its 200 EMA forming nice, tight, lower-level range. I will be watching closely on open if buyers have enough power to hold after-hours gains. Hold below $18.23 and drop back below $18.00 will trigger my entry short. I use active trade management system with tiers. I will add below $17.30 and it will open doors to the next potential buying area/target at $16.00-.43. Market: continue to show us wekaness and this lower range become more defining. I expect to see quick move down to $1,895-$1,900 in $S&P500. So, it will keep preassure on weak stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by andrew.berg