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Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price. But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us. On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President. I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas! The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year. There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now. Bitcoin On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support. But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always) Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks. As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period. The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high. On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon. But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out. If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week. But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Send us an email or message us on social media. cheers! Jasper
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by jasperlawler
1
Example of how to use the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- There was a question about how to select the selection point when using the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, so I will take the time to explain the method I use. Since it is my method, it may be different from your method. - Before that, I will explain the difference from the general Fibonacci retracement tool. The Fibonacci retracement tool uses the Fibonacci ratio as the ratio to be retracement within the selected range. Therefore, the low and high points are likely to be the selection points. The reason I say it is likely is because the lowest and highest points are different depending on which time frame chart it was drawn on. Therefore, in order to use a chart tool that specifies a selection point like this, you must basically understand the arrangement of candles. If you understand the arrangement of candles, you can draw the support and resistance points that make up it and determine the importance of those support and resistance points. The HA-MS indicator that I am using is a more objective version of this. Unlike the published HA-MS indicator, several have been added. I do not plan to disclose the formulas of these added indicators yet. However, if you share my ideas, you can use them normally at any time. The selection point for using the current Fibonacci retracement tool is the point that the fingers are pointing to. In other words, the 1st finger is the low point, and the 2nd finger is the high point. One question may arise here. Why is it the position of the 1st finger? The reason is that it is the starting point of the current wave. Therefore, you can find out the retracement ratio in the current rising wave. In fact, it is not recommended to use the Fibonacci ratio as support and resistance. This is because it is better to use the Fibonacci ratio to check how much wave is being reached and how much movement is being shown in chart analysis. However, the Fibonacci ratio can be usefully used when the ATH or ATL is updated. - If the Fibonacci Retracement tool was a chart tool that found out the retracement ratio in the current wave, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool can be said to be a chart tool that found out the extension ratio of the wave. Therefore, while the Fibonacci Retracement tool requires you to specify two selection points, the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool requires you to specify three selection points. That's how important it is to understand the arrangement of the candles. The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of an uptrend The chart above is an example of drawing to find out the extension ratio of a downtrend Do you understand how the selection points are specified by looking at the example chart? - The chart above is the chart when the 1st finger point is selected. The chart above is the chart when the 1-1 hand point is selected. When drawing on a lower time frame chart, you should be careful about which point to select when the arrangement of the candles is ambiguous. Examples include the 1st finger and the 1-1 finger. It may be difficult to select 1-1 and 1 depending on whether they are interpreted as small waves or not. The lower the time frame chart, the more difficult this selection becomes. Therefore, it is recommended to draw on a higher time frame chart if possible. The reason is that the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool used to analyze charts. In other words, it is not drawn for trading. In order to trade, you trade based on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. - Thank you for reading to the end. I wish you successful trading. --------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by readCrypto
3
Behind the Curtain: Top Economic Influencers on ZN Futures1. Introduction The 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of the fixed-income market. As a vital benchmark for interest rate trends and macroeconomic sentiment, ZN Futures attract institutional and retail traders alike. Their liquidity, versatility, and sensitivity to economic shifts make them a go-to instrument for both speculation and hedging. In this article, we delve into the economic forces shaping ZN Futures’ performance across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we identify the most impactful indicators influencing Treasury futures returns. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies and navigate the complexities of this market. 2. Product Specifications Contract Size: The standard ZN Futures contract represents $100,000 face value of 10-Year Treasury Notes. Tick Size: Each tick corresponds to 1/64 of 1% of par value. This equals $15.625 per tick, ensuring precise pricing and manageable risk for traders. Margins: Approximately $2,000 per contract (changes through time). Micro Contract Availability: While the standard contract suits institutional traders, the micro-sized Yield Futures provide a smaller-scale option for retail participants. These contracts offer reduced tick values and margin requirements, enabling broader market participation. 3. Daily Economic Drivers Machine learning models reveal that daily fluctuations in ZN Futures are significantly influenced by the following indicators: Building Permits: A leading indicator of housing market activity, an increase in permits signals economic confidence and growth. This optimism often puts upward pressure on yields, while a decline may reflect economic caution, boosting demand for Treasuries. U.S. Trade Balance: This metric measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit typically signals improved economic health, leading to higher yields. Conversely, a widening deficit can weaken economic sentiment, increasing Treasury demand as a safe-haven asset. China GDP Growth Rate: As a global economic powerhouse, China’s GDP growth influences global trade and financial flows. Strong growth suggests robust international demand, pressuring Treasury prices downward as yields rise. Slower growth has the opposite effect, enhancing Treasury appeal. 4. Weekly Economic Drivers When analyzing weekly timeframes, the following indicators emerge as significant drivers of ZN Futures: Velocity of Money (M2): This indicator reflects the speed at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity signals robust economic activity, often putting upward pressure on yields. Slowing velocity, on the other hand, may indicate stagnation, increasing demand for Treasury securities. Consumer Sentiment Index: This metric gauges the confidence level of consumers regarding the economy. Rising sentiment suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, often pressuring bond prices downward as yields rise. Conversely, a decline signals economic caution, favoring safe-haven assets like ZN Futures. Nonfarm Productivity: This measures output per hour worked in the nonfarm sector and serves as an indicator of economic efficiency. Rising productivity typically reflects economic strength and may lead to higher yields, while stagnation or declines can shift sentiment toward Treasuries. 5. Monthly Economic Drivers On a broader monthly scale, the following indicators play a pivotal role in shaping ZN Futures: Net Exports: This metric captures the difference between a country’s exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong global demand for domestic goods, signaling economic strength and driving yields higher. Persistent deficits, however, may weaken economic sentiment and increase demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. 10-Year Treasury Yield: As a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield reflect investor expectations for economic growth and inflation. Rising yields suggest optimism about future economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for Treasury futures. Declining yields indicate caution, bolstering Treasury appeal. Durable Goods Orders: This indicator measures new orders placed with manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more. Rising orders signal business confidence and economic growth, often leading to higher yields. Conversely, a decline in durable goods orders can indicate slowing economic momentum, increasing Treasury demand. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide distinct insights depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: Focusing on daily indicators like Building Permits, U.S. Trade Balance, and China GDP Growth Rate to anticipate short-term market movements. For example, an improvement in China’s GDP Growth Rate may signal stronger global economic conditions, potentially driving yields higher and pressuring ZN Futures lower. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators such as Velocity of Money (M2), Consumer Sentiment Index, and Nonfarm Productivity could help identify intermediate trends. For instance, rising consumer sentiment can reflect increased spending expectations, potentially prompting bearish positions in ZN Futures. Position Traders: Monthly metrics like Net Exports, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Durable Goods Orders may offer a macro perspective for long-term strategies. A sustained increase in durable goods orders, for instance, may indicate economic expansion, influencing traders to potentially adopt bearish sentiment on ZN Futures. 7. Conclusion The analysis highlights how daily, weekly, and monthly economic indicators collectively influence ZN Futures. From more immediate fluctuations driven by Building Permits and China GDP Growth Rate, to longer-term trends shaped by Durable Goods Orders and the 10-Year Treasury Yield, each timeframe provides actionable insights for traders. By understanding these indicators and incorporating machine learning models to uncover patterns, traders can refine strategies tailored to specific time horizons. Whether intraday, swing, or long-term, leveraging these insights empowers traders to navigate ZN Futures with greater precision. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we examine economic drivers behind another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
4
USDJPY - Rising Channels, Pullbacks, Double Tops & BOJ NewsToday we're looking at a potential bearish trading opportunity on the USDJPY. After a long bullish rally, followed by a lengthy period of consolidation in the form of a rising channel. The &USDJPY has violated the pattern to the downside & with the recent pullback, is giving us an opportunity to jump on the next potential move down. As we venture down to the hourly chart, we may have a potential double top to open our week which would be an excellent entry reason for getting involved. On the fundamental side of things, later this week the Bank of Japan will make an interest rate decision & word on the street is that they are considering a hike. How a lot will depend on what happens after President Donald Trump takes over, but if an interest rate hike from the BOJ were to happen it "should" mean Yen strength and confirmation for our bearish prediction. If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. And I hope you guys have an excellent week of trading. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
8
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
23
ADA - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is forming two bullish patterns on the DAILY timeframe, If my view is correct, Cardano will rise to $1.45 . And if this pattern is correct and breaks, higher targets are possible. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Long
by CobraVanguard
12
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Rounding Bottom targets in focusHello everyone, It’s been a few weeks since our last Bitcoin update, and while much has unfolded, our core outlook remains unchanged—bullish momentum persists, with expectations for further rallies. Today, we spotlight a potential rounding bottom formation on BTC, a classic reversal structure signaling continued strength. This formation features three key elements: Rounding Bottom Base – The gradual curve in price, showing accumulation. Stop Wall – The critical resistance level to watch for a breakout. Landing Base – A support zone providing stability during the formation. Our chart provides a clear visualization of these elements, offering actionable insights for both mid-term and long-term positioning. As always, disciplined risk management remains essential. What’s your view on this setup? Share your thoughts below!
Long
by weslad
54
US dollar index remains elevated, but for how long?The US dollar index continues to show strength and with the potential reduction in the amount cuts this year by the Fed, there might be further strength of MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX . But could this be the case in the short-run? Let's dig in... TVC:DXY RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
8
Trading BTC with a Solid Plan Is Crucial for Success—Here’s Mine🌟 In this video, I share a trade idea along with my detailed trading plan and we highlight why a well-structured strategy is 🔑 key to success. Discover how to trade BTC Bitcoin 🪙 using a trend continuation approach while leveraging TradingView's powerful tools and features to gain a real edge in the markets. 🖥️✨ Here’s what we’ll cover: 📊 Trend Analysis: A top-down review of market direction to identify opportunities. 📈 Market Structure & Price Action: Key insights into how price moves and behaves. 🎯 Trade Planning: Using higher timeframe support and resistance levels to set stop loss and target points. 🛠️ TradingView Features: Practical tools to refine your analysis and boost efficiency. This video is an in-depth guide to trading effectively with a proven strategy, enhanced by TradingView's unique capabilities. 🚀 Please remember, this is not financial advice. 📜
by fxtraderanthony
39
BITCOIN new ATHs !? BITCOIN new all-time highs ?! Hello ❤TV community 👋 The new year is still young and the bulls could really take off here ... Here with a bullish option and a WolveWave(WW) and the targets on the upside. 🖥Intraday chart (12h) and everything important 💡 Everything important in the chart 👀 💥bullish CYPHER Harmonic 👀 👉Volume analysis 👀💪 👉Daily MA50 re-test 👀🔥 🔥BITCOIN roadmap/outlook (from 27th february 2024) If you like this idea, please leave me a 🚀 and follow for updates 🔥⏰ Furthermore, any criticism is welcome as well as any suggestions etc. - You're also very welcome to share this idea. Have a nice evening & successful trading decisions 💪 M_a_d_d_e_n ✌ NOTE: The above information represents my idea and is not an investment/trading recommendation! Without any guarantee & exclusion of liability!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by M_a_d_d_e_n
18
Morning Routines of Successful Day Traders: It’s Not Just CoffeeIt's pretty busy right now in the market , so we figured why not pull you in for a breather and spin up an evergreen piece that’ll lay out some practical advice to our absolutely magnificent audience. This time we’re talking about routine, morning routine. The time of day when the majority of us fall into two buckets: those who rise and those who hit snooze until their phone falls off the nightstand. Day traders? They’re a different breed. Successful day traders aren’t rolling out of bed, rubbing their eyes, and clicking buy before their first sip of coffee. If you think trading is all instinct and luck, you’re in for a wake-up call. The best in the game have morning routines that look more like pre-game rituals – calculated, precise, and yes, sometimes superstitious. 🧐 Scanning the Ground Before Dawn Before the market bell even thinks about ringing, day traders are already glued to their screens. Futures markets? Checked. Pre-market movers? Analyzed. Global news ? Scanned twice, just in case something wild happened overnight to the Japanese yen . The market isn’t an isolated entity; it reacts to everything and the effects are widespread, spilling over from one asset class to another. Inflation data, gold prices, tech earnings, even the tweet that Elon Musk fired off at 3 AM (especially now with his unhinged political disruption). 📒 The Power of the Trading Journal A tried-and-tested trader’s morning doesn’t start with the news only. They crack open the sacred document – the trading journal . A quick review of yesterday’s trades is non-negotiable. What worked? What didn’t? Was there a panic sell at 10:05 that didn’t age well? Documenting trades might feel like high school homework, but the elite money spinners swear by it. It’s not about reliving the glory or shame of past trades – it’s about patterns. Spot the patterns, and you’re already ahead of 90% of the market. 🙏 Stretch, Meditate, and Keep Emotions at Bay Trading isn’t just charts and numbers. It’s a mental game. One bad trade can spiral into a revenge trade, and next thing you know, you’re shorting Tesla at market open because it "felt right." This is why the best day traders center themselves before the chaos begins. Some meditate. Others hit the gym. A few just sit quietly with their thoughts, which honestly might be the most terrifying option. Regardless of the method, the goal is the same: shake off the stress, start the day calm. Because calm traders make rational decisions. Anxious traders blow up their accounts. 🤖 Tech Check: The Ritual of Rebooting Imagine missing a perfect trade because your Wi-Fi blinked out or your trading platform decided to update at the worst possible time. For a day trader, technology isn’t just a tool – it’s the lifeline. A tech check is part of every serious morning routine (or at least weekly). Charts must load fast, platforms need to run smoother than a Swiss watch, and backup systems stand ready for action. Most traders have backups of their backups, in the cloud and on their hard drives. If their primary PC goes down, there’s a laptop on standby. If that dies, they have their phone. And if the phone crashes? Well, let’s just say there might be a tablet lurking somewhere nearby. 🛒 Watchlists: The Trader’s Grocery List Top dogs curate their watchlists daily, especially when it’s still the quiet of the day. It’s not just the usual suspects like Apple AAPL or Nvidia NVDA – it’s a finely tuned selection of stocks primed for movement. It could be big tech, auto stocks and even gold-linked stocks . Earnings reports , unusual volume, or a sudden spike in options activity – all of these feed the list. The goal is to narrow the focus. Because staring at 200 charts at once is a surefire way to miss everything important. 📅 Economic Calendar: The Absolute Mainstay Pro traders live by the economic calendar and are more likely to miss the birthday of a loved one than the Fed making an announcement. Is there a jobs report dropping ? The latest consumer prices are in ? These events are market movers, and day traders plan their sessions around them. Big data dumps can trigger wild volatility, and the last thing any trader wants is to be blindsided by a sudden spike in price out of nowhere. Think of the economic calendar as the market’s version of a weather forecast. You wouldn’t plan a picnic during a thunderstorm, and you shouldn’t casually load up on the British pound ahead of an expected interest rate decision. 🚀 It's Go Time: Visualization and Execution There’s a quiet intensity in the room as you prepare for the opening bell (unless you trade forex or crypto). The screens are glowing, the watchlist is set, and the coffee is (hopefully) still hot. But before the first trade, there’s visualization. Successful traders run through potential scenarios in their heads. “If stock X hits this level, I’ll enter. If it drops below Y, I’m out.” It’s like rehearsing lines for a play. When the market finally opens, there’s no hesitation – just execution. 🏁 Final Thought: It’s Not Magic, It’s Routine Day trading might look glamorous from the outside, but at its core, it’s a grind full of decisions, decisions, and decisions again. The traders who consistently win aren’t lucky; they’re disciplined. And it all starts with the morning routine. So, next time you see all those financial gurus, mentors and course-selling forex influencers on Instagram, picture this instead: a dimly lit room, a couple screens, a watchlist, and a trader calmly sipping their third cup of coffee. Because in this game, the calmest minds – not the flashiest – take home the prize.
Education
by TradingView
22
Trade Management Using Time StopsTrade management is one of the most crucial skills for any trader, especially when it comes to knowing when to cut your losses early. One of the key methods to achieve this is through the use of Time Stops, which provide a systematic way to assess your trades and manage risk. While traditional stop losses are indispensable for protecting your capital against adverse price moves, they don’t always address the psychological challenge of cutting losing trades early. This is where Time Stops can step in as a complementary tool. By targeting trades that show no meaningful progress within a defined timeframe, Time Stops help reduce the size of your average loss—an often overlooked but critical factor in developing a positive trading edge. It’s important to remember: Time Stops don’t replace traditional stop losses. Instead, they add an additional layer of discipline to your risk management. What Are Time Stops? Time Stops involve exiting a trade after a predetermined amount of time, regardless of whether your stop loss has been triggered. The idea is simple but effective: if a trade isn’t working as expected within the allotted time, it’s better to exit and preserve capital for better opportunities. This approach works particularly well with strategies where winning trades are expected to show results quickly. These include breakouts, where price moves decisively through a key level, and reversals, which rely on sharp changes in direction. Time Stops provide a structured way to manage trades that fail to live up to these expectations. Why Use Time Stops? Time Stops offer several potential advantages: • Emotional Discipline: One of the toughest aspects of trading is deciding when to exit a trade that hasn’t hit its stop loss but isn’t progressing as expected. Time Stops provide a clear, objective rule for exiting such trades, removing emotional decision-making and promoting a disciplined approach. • Potentially Enhanced Trading Edge: By incorporating Time Stops, you align your exits more closely with your strategy’s performance expectations. This can help refine your approach by filtering out trades that fail to meet their initial criteria, allowing you to focus on opportunities with greater potential to match your strategy’s objectives. • Maintaining Flexibility in Trade Allocation: Time Stops help ensure that your focus remains on trades that align with your strategy’s core conditions. By identifying trades that are unlikely to meet expectations early, you can keep your trading approach agile, allowing for greater readiness to act on new opportunities. Strategies That Can Benefit From Time Stops Time Stops are particularly effective in strategies that depend on quick, decisive price movements. Let’s examine examples for reversals and breakouts. Reversal Strategy Example: Tesla Daily Timeframe Tesla forms a two-bar reversal pattern on the daily candle chart at a key swing resistance level, with negative divergence on the RSI indicating potential weakness. A short trade is placed with a traditional stop loss above the two-bar reversal high and resistance level. Tesla Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results To incorporate a Time Stop, you decide to allow three days for the trade to show signs of a reversal. However, Tesla tracks sideways without breaking lower, suggesting the expected momentum has not materialised. Tesla T+3 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Using a Time Stop in this scenario prevents prolonged exposure to a setup that hasn’t delivered, allowing you to reallocate focus to trades with stronger potential. Tesla Stopped Out Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Breakout Strategy Example: EUR/USD Hourly Timeframe EUR/USD breaks out on the hourly chart with increased volume, signalling a potential upward move. You enter a long trade with a stop loss below the swing low. EUR/USD Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results With a Time Stop, you give the trade ten hours to demonstrate progress. While price consolidates above the breakout level initially, the anticipated follow-through does not occur within the allotted time. In this instance, the Time Stop allows you to exit and refocus on setups with stronger momentum. EUR/USD +10 Hours Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results EUR/USD +24 Hours Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results EUR/USD Stopped Out Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Using Time Stops Effectively To implement Time Stops successfully: • Set a timeframe: Define the period based on your strategy and market. Momentum trades may require hours, while longer-term setups may need days. • Analyse your strategy: Review historical data to identify how quickly successful trades typically progress. Use this as a benchmark for your Time Stop. • Use Time Stops alongside traditional stop losses: Time Stops handle trades that stagnate, while stop losses protect against adverse price moves. Summary: Time Stops are a valuable addition to a trader’s toolkit, particularly for strategies like breakouts and reversals, where winners are expected to perform quickly. They help enforce discipline, refine focus, and manage trades that fail to meet expectations. By combining Time Stops with traditional stop losses, traders can approach the markets with greater structure and objectivity. Over time, this disciplined approach can support the pursuit of consistent results while managing risk effectively. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
3
$ARTY Correction Complete, Great Entry / Time To Shine 🚀 AMEX:ARTY : A Hidden Gem Ready to Shine I'm thrilled to announce that AMEX:ARTY is now part of my portfolio. The recent correction seems to have reached its bottom, presenting a perfect entry opportunity for those looking to capitalize on its long-term growth potential. Why AMEX:ARTY Deserves Attention? 1️⃣ Strong Fundamentals with Huge Growth Potential Market Cap: Only $16 million, making it significantly undervalued compared to its potential. Circulating Supply: 80% of AMEX:ARTY tokens are already in circulation – minimal inflation risk and strong price stability. 2️⃣ Exciting Milestones Ahead AMEX:ARTY is set to make waves in the blockchain gaming and NFT space, with massive upcoming developments: Integration into the Epic Games Store, one of the largest gaming platforms globally. Launch of Artyfact Mini-App on Telegram, bringing AMEX:ARTY to a massive user base. Artyfact Launchpad to help new projects thrive in the ecosystem. Expansion to major gaming platforms: PlayStation and Xbox. Availability in Apple's App Store and Google Play Store, broadening accessibility to mobile users worldwide. These milestones are poised to attract millions of new users to the AMEX:ARTY ecosystem, creating strong demand and long-term growth potential. 📈 My Long-Term Price Targets for AMEX:ARTY Based on AMEX:ARTY 's fundamentals, market cap, and upcoming catalysts, I foresee massive upside potential: First target: $10 – achievable in the near term with increased adoption and upcoming milestones. Second target: $25 – reflecting the value of a more mature ecosystem and higher user base. Ultimate target: $50+ – as AMEX:ARTY becomes a leader in blockchain gaming and NFT adoption. At its current valuation, AMEX:ARTY has significant room to grow into a market cap that reflects its true potential. 🔍 Bullish Technical Analysis on AMEX:ARTY Chart From a technical perspective, AMEX:ARTY 's chart looks extremely promising: Correction Over: The recent pullback has established strong support near $1.5. Volume Spike: Increasing trading volume indicates growing interest from both retail and institutional investors. Momentum Building: The RSI is climbing out of oversold territory, signaling growing bullish momentum. The MACD is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting a rally in price. Key Levels to Watch: Immediate Resistance: $3 – breaking this level could trigger a significant upward movement. Next Target Zones: $5, $7.5, and ultimately $10. 🌟 Why I’m Confident in AMEX:ARTY With its low market cap, high token circulation, and an ambitious roadmap of developments across major gaming and app platforms, AMEX:ARTY has all the ingredients for explosive growth. The time to enter is now, while the project remains undervalued and under the radar. Are you ready to ride this wave? Let me know your thoughts and analysis on $ARTY!
by GentleGoldenEngine
33
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
6
EUR/USD : Approaching Critical Demand Zones! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #EURUSD chart in the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price has currently reached a very important demand zone, and the probability of a price reversal from this level is high! However, note that I personally have another scenario in mind, which is that after an initial short-term rise in the current area, the price will decline again to the very important demand zone of 1.005 to 1.007 , and then, with a suitable trigger in this area, we can look for an attractive BUY position ! All key levels and important zones have been marked on the chart! If you have any questions, be sure to ask, and I will try to respond as soon as possible! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
37
Euro can start to move up to resistance level and break itHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price some days ago entered to downward channel, where it at once rebounded from the support line to the resistance line and then started to decline. Long time, the price fell near the resistance line of the channel, until it reached 1.0455 points, after which it moved up to the resistance line and then dropped to the support line, breaking the 1.0410 resistance level. Then Euro exited from a downward channel and rose to the 1.0410 level, which coincided with the seller zone and some time traded between. Later it made a downward impulse to the current resistance level, which coincided with the resistance area and even fell a little lower than the 1.0250 level, after which started to trades inside a triangle. In this pattern, the Euro in a short time rose to the resistance line, which is located in the seller zone, and then fell to the support line back, breaking the 1.0250 level one more time. Also recently price exited from a triangle pattern and now it continues to decline. So, in my opinion, the Euro, after exiting from the triangle can decline a little more and then start to grow to the 1.0250 resistance level (1st TP). Then, the price will break this level and make a retest, after which continue to move up to 2nd TP - 1.0360 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
21
Kiwi H4 | Rising into multi-swing-high resistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.5683 which is a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.5745 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a descending trendline resistance. Take profit is at 0.5540 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
2