Gold's high-keeping is the key, breaking the low is the focus
💡Message Strategy
From a fundamental perspective, waning optimism about a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continued U.S.-China trade tensions, and concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation remain the core factors dominating the market this week. These pressures have kept the U.S. dollar weak, thereby supporting the rise in gold prices.
The dollar index turned positive and returned above 99.70, not far from a two-week low. The renewed strength of the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of non-dollar currencies.
The international gold price once hit a two-week high. But it is now turning down and waiting for further clues. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming preliminary value of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to find out the future direction of gold prices.
📊Technical aspects
This wave rose from the lower track of the channel at $3120, and reached around $3340 today, which is about $225. From mid-April to now, the price has continued to sweep around the existing large range, going back and forth repeatedly.
The first resistance of the upper channel is 3500, the second resistance is 3435
The first support of the lower channel is 3280, the second support is 3260, the third support is 3200, and the fourth support is 3120
The high point keeps moving down, the low point keeps refreshing, and the space range is about 200-300 US dollars
And as time goes by, it has now come to the upper rail area of the channel, so we must consider a question, whether to re-determine the resistance, and then fall under pressure to find the lower rail of the channel?
If so, breaking the defense line and the channel line is the key and premise, entering the rhythm of keeping high and breaking low, the current two resistance points: one is 3340-3345, the position of the small channel, the price is in a high-level adjustment state, the upper rail of the channel is 3340-3345, and the lower rail is 3310-3305
The second is that 3365-3370 belongs to the trend line pressure line position formed by the high point 3500-3435. If it is lost here, the next resistance to find is the 3410-3420 area
Therefore, the first focus here is to pay attention to the interval of the small channel 3345-3305 area. After the price breaks through, pay attention to the continuity, and then continue to switch space
Today's second focus is the historical cycle. The recent market characteristics are: large space, strong turning point, and obvious acceleration.
In the past two weeks, the market fell sharply by 125 US dollars (May 8) after hitting the high point, and rose sharply by 120 US dollars (May 15) after hitting the bottom. This is just the result. In addition, the process is tortuous and repeated, the space is larger and the acceleration is also obvious.
So, for today's gold, whether the final result is also a large K-line of more than 120 US dollars, we need to pay attention to breakthroughs and continuity.
Combined with the above description, for the next gold, we first consider that the price comes to the upper track area of the channel swept by the large range, and we are ready to determine the turning point of resistance at any time. At the same time, the time has come to Thursday, the time with the greatest variables. If it is determined to start the falling mode, then the later space will be greater.
The current focus is to break the 3300-3350 range and then switch to the next $50 space
So these two key points: keeping high is the key, breaking low is the key
Next, the best way is to continue to go short under the defensive suppression of the 3330 area, looking for 3300-3315, and then continue to look for 3290 if it falls below, and then 3270. Once the price returns to above 3330, it will return to the 3300-3350 channel to sweep
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 3315-3320
Short Position：3330-3340
