Trend Lines
Is AUD/NZD Ready to Resume the Downtrend on the Daily Chart?Context on AUD/NZD Technical Factors
On July 30 and November 22, the AUD/NZD pair encountered significant resistance, reaching the 1.1150 level. The price's failure to break above this resistance has resulted in the formation of a double top on the daily chart. The candle on November 22 also indicated a false breakout of this resistance, signalling a notable influx of selling pressure. On November 29, AUD/NZD broke below its nearest uptrend line on the daily chart, prompting a decline to 1.0925 before recently rebounding to 1.1050, the level where the uptrend line was breached.
The current price level of 1.1050 aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline and represents the same area where the uptrend line breakout occurred. This suggests that once support is broken, it may serve as resistance going forward.
Key Elements of Analysis for AUD/NZD:
Double Top Formation: Indicates buyers’ inability to maintain prices above 1.1150.
Break of the Uptrend Line: Confirmed decrease in upward momentum.
Fibonacci Confluence: The breakout level coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend.
Possible Short Entry
Given this confluence of factors, there is a possibility that AUD/NZD may resume its downward movement in the coming days, especially if the price manages to close below 1.1000 on the daily chart.
Possible Targets:
The next support levels that could serve as potential targets include:
1.0880: This level acted as support in August and September, representing an approximate target of 120 pips. It is also in line with a rising trend line established since March 2020.
1.0780: This level was a support point on September 9, offering a potential target of approximately 220 pips.
Alternative Scenario: Bullish Reversal
An alternative scenario may unfold if the AUD/NZD breaks and closes above 1.1065 on the daily chart. In this case, the price could continue to rise towards historical resistance at 1.1150. A successful breach of this level could see the pair advance towards the next resistance at 1.1250.
Important Considerations
Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming release of New Zealand GDP data on December 18, as this could significantly impact the AUD/NZD pair. Additionally, key news concerning the Trade Balance for NZD should also be taken into account.
In summary, AUD/NZD is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators suggesting the potential for a downward move. Traders should closely monitor price action, particularly around the 1.1000 level, while remaining aware of upcoming economic data that could influence the market.
Disclaimer
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Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade.
There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline.
So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly.
Strategy: Bull call spread
Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration)
Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14
Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54
Max gain= €146
Risk / Reward = 2.7
Commissions= €1.5 (only open)
Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium)
Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85%
Implicit Volatility = ~31%
In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1.
The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option.
I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
Dollar Index (DXY): Clear Strength?!
Looks like Dollar Index is ready for more growth.
I see 2 strong bullish confirmations after a retest of a recently broken horizontal resistance:
the price violated a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle and a neckline of a horizontal range.
A strong bullish imbalance indicates a high momentum.
We can anticipate more growth.
Goal - 107.13
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CUMMINS INDIA LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
COROMANDEL INTERNATIONAL LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
NYYKAA Long TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
PRESTIGE ESTATE LTD Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
HUDCO Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD Swing tradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
DR Reddy Laboratories Swing TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
DLF Swing Trade Hello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
MOTHERSON looking For breakoutHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
GBPJPY Long TradeHello,
Trend-Based Analysis. Buy the Dips, Sell The Rallies, Also Following the Trend. Let's see where the Price Action takes us, Riding the wave. Potential trade setups based on trend momentum.
Technical analysis based on trend identification and momentum, Looking for high-probability setups within the prevailing trend.
Analyzing the current market trend and potential future price movement. Focusing on risk management and reward-to-risk ratios.
Details is Mentioned in Chart, Read carefully.. .
USDCHF: Depended On news! Retail Sales, FOMC rate Decision, US GDP and initial jobless claims are the most important news of this week! Very wired week!! LOL/
Any Breaks over the redzone means more chance for USDCHF to reach 0.9100 around top iof the green channel.
Take care of yourself and hard-earned capital.
EURUSD: Short-termHello Traders,
Regarding the Daily chart, we are bearish. and recently break below consolidation.
Regarding the 2h Chart we are bearish and overbought! because we are in top half a bearish channel
Regarding the 5m chart, Formation of a double top or head and shoulder is clear, you can use any other confirmation type or enter right now
Tps and SLs calculated based on previous recent important levels.
EURUSD Potential for up trend continuationEUR/USD rebounded from a support level, influenced by impactful news surrounding the Euro. The market remains in a consolidation phase as the year-end approaches, likely staying within last week’s trading range. A rejection signal at the support level and the downward trendline could indicate potential upward movement, suggesting oscillation within the consolidation zone’s highs and lows. The recent breakout from a falling wedge pattern points to a possible rise. The target resistance zone for this movement is around 1.05620
Bitcoin hits a new ATH! Potential for a higher swingBTC/USDT has reached a new all-time high, breaking out of a trend continuation pattern commonly observed in this market. The long-tailed bar on the weekly timeframe indicates potential momentum toward the 115,000 level in the near future. Currently, the market has made an impulsive upward move and is now consolidating sideways. A pullback toward the support zone and upward trendline may precede further upward continuation if rejection candles form, signalling buying pressure. The target resistance zone for this movement is around 108,000
EURUSD → Consolidation before Fed Interest Rate DecisionFX:EURUSD is in a consolidation phase, as is the dollar index. The outcome could be decided this week. Traders are waiting for the FED meeting on US interest rates
Globally the trend is neutral, but the price is consolidating near the key support that has been holding the market for two years. Aggressive interest rate cuts in Europe are putting overall negative pressure on the currency pair. The dollar may go into a downward correction if the decision to cut interest rates is made on December 17-18. But any hint of hawkish policy on the part of the Fed may strengthen the dollar, which will intensify the decline in EURUSD
Resistance levels: 1.0607, 1.065
Support levels: 1.045, 1.033
Based on interest, amid the downtrend, the price has not yet reached the key liquidity zone. Before important news, the market may reach 1.0607. But based on the technical and fundamental background, the fall may continue, and a breakdown of 1.0448 will strengthen this fall.
Regards R. Linda!