The surge in the euro was expected
💡Message Strategy
Since the beginning of this trading week, a number of economic data released by the United States have been weak. Following the decline in the manufacturing PMI, the ISM service PMI for May released on Wednesday fell to 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year. In addition, the ADP employment data was also far below expectations, with only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 115,000, which strengthened the market's concerns about the risk of a US recession, thereby dragging down the US dollar.
At the same time, risk aversion and uncertainty in the United States have not improved significantly, and trade tensions, debt prospects and weak US bond yields have put pressure on the US dollar. Obviously, in the game between eurozone monetary policy and US economic data, the euro wins.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart, the exchange rate has maintained a strong oscillation pattern since mid-April, and has generally been running between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands is currently at 1.1471, and the lower track is at 1.1118. The Bollinger Bands are slightly open, indicating a rebound in volatility.
The MACD indicator shows that the double lines form a golden cross, and the bar chart turns from green to red, suggesting that the downward momentum is weakening; the RSI indicator remains near 57, slightly in the neutral to bullish area, and has not yet reached the overbought level. The overall technical pattern tends to fluctuate upward. If it breaks through the 1.1500 area, it will continue to rise.
At present, the main idea is still to do more on the callback, and do not blindly chase the short.
Long Position: 1.14450-1.14650
