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Trend Lines

NZDUSD ready to go up after failing to make new lows?NZD/USD has experienced a decline of 5.12% since 27 September, establishing a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart. However, on 10 October, the pair began to break out of this bearish trend line, signalling a potential pause in the prevailing bearish momentum. On 15 October, NZD/USD retraced, forming a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart. Notably, the price was unable to breach the previous support level of 0.6050, suggesting stabilisation in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a value of 21.06 on 24 September. By 15 October, the RSI had risen to 34.10, demonstrating higher lows in the RSI while the price made lower lows — a condition that characterises classical bullish divergence. CPI Data and Its Impact From a macroeconomic perspective, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in lower than expected (0.6% actual versus 0.7% forecast), which tends to be negative for the NZD and that is what caused the downward movement on October 15th. However, since the price failed to break below the previous low, this shows that the selling force is currently showing signs of exhaustion. Key Elements to Consider: 1. Significant downward movement since 27 September, resulting in a depreciation of over 5% in NZD/USD. 2. RSI reading below 30 on 10 October, suggesting exhaustion of the selling momentum. 3. Breakout from the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart. 4. Formation of a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart. 5. Classical bullish divergence is observed on the 4-hour chart. Potential for Ascendancy Given the above elements, if NZD/USD manages to surpass the 0.6090 level, it is likely that the currency pair will ascend towards the 0.6160 region within the coming days, where it may face temporary resistance. A Bullish Turn on the Horizon? In conclusion, while recent indicators and patterns suggest a potential bullish reversal for NZD/USD, traders should remain cautious of external factors that may influence market dynamics. As always, close monitoring of price action and macroeconomic developments will be key in navigating this trading opportunity. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
1
BTC: Buffeting Against the Upper Trend LineBTC has shown impressive strength over the past few days with explosive upward moves, now testing the upper trendline. If we see a decisive break—a full open and close on the 4-hour or 1-day timeframe—this would likely confirm that the trendline has been broken, signaling more upside potential. This move could mark Wave 5 of 5, with an elongated “flameout” before we face the inevitable, and likely prolonged, ABC correction over the next few months. Until then, BTC will either get rejected and remain within the channel or bust to the upside to continue Wave 3 of 5 of 5.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by cryptechcapital
SPx / Wall Street Gains MomentumEarnings Outlooks Lift Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Mixed, Europe Flat Technical Analysis: The price is exhibiting a bullish trend, with a potential target of 5863, as it has already stabilized above 5807. However, a retest of 5807 may occur before resuming the bullish trend. For a bearish outlook to materialize, the price must close below 5781 on the 4-hour chart. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5820 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5891 Support Levels: 5807, 5759, 5732 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5781 Bullish above 5807
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Potential Continuation of the Downtrend Despite Bullish SignsAUD/JPY Analysis: Sharp Volatility with Potential Continuation of the Downtrend Despite Bullish Signs order blocks : OANDA:AUDJPY AUD/JPY has been showing some promising signs of a bullish run lately, but its sharp, unpredictable moves up and down have left many of us confused. In my analysis on the 24-minute (24M) timeframe, I looked at even lower timeframes to find more precise entry points. The Fibonacci retracement levels indicated the golden zone between 0.71 and 0.75, and the price moved right into that area. I also used different Fibonacci levels to confirm the potential outcome. However, despite the temporary bullish signals, I believe we might see a continuation of the downtrend for now. There are also several order blocks on lower timeframes that are providing support, so it's important to watch what happens next. These volatile movements suggest further downside pressure before any sustained upward move. These are my thoughts—hope you enjoyed the read.
Short
by GlebalTrader
The Perfect Setup Unfolding: Don’t Miss This High-Prob TradeIWhat’s Changed and What to Look for Now? 1. Structure and Pattern Focus: Wedge and Correction Identified The yellow descending lines still highlight a wedge-shaped correction after the price made an upward impulsive move. Wedges often act as continuation patterns, meaning the trend (in this case, bullish) is likely to resume once the wedge is broken. Price has already broken out of the wedge and pulled back, hinting that the market might continue upward after this slight retracement. 🔍 What to Do: If you spot a wedge breakout like this, wait for a retest—which seems to be forming now—before entering the trade. This increases the chance of entering at a safer spot rather than chasing the move. 2. Identifying the "Potential Buy Zone" You have a Potential Buy Zone marked around the 2,636–2,647 range, which aligns with both: Key Fibonacci levels: 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. Demand area: The price previously bounced from this region, showing there’s buying interest. 📝 What to Do: Watch for price action signals within the buy zone, such as: Pin bars (candles with long lower wicks). Engulfing candles (strong green candles that close above the previous red ones). Mini flags or pullbacks to signal buyers stepping in. 3. Set Entry and Stop-Loss Levels Smartly If you enter within the buy zone, place your stop-loss below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (around 2,620). This ensures you’re protected if the trade goes against you. Target One: 2,675.051 Target Two: Around 2,700 These targets are based on previous highs and Fibonacci extensions (-27.2% and -51.8%). 🔍 Pro Tip: Always plan 2:1 or 3:1 risk-reward ratios. In this case, the stop-loss is relatively tight compared to the potential reward, making this a high-reward trade setup if price respects the buy zone. 4. Using "The Rule of Three" to Confirm the Setup Based on the Rule of Three, you should always have three confirmations before entering a trade​​. In this scenario, here’s how it applies: First confirmation: Price has entered the Fibonacci zone and buy zone (2,636–2,647). Second confirmation: A bullish reaction or candlestick signal forms (like a pin bar). Third confirmation: If price breaks above a mini-flag or consolidates slightly above this zone, it’s a strong sign to enter the trade. 5. What to Watch for as a Beginner If price touches the buy zone and starts to show signs of rejection (like a wick or small bullish candles), that’s your signal to consider entering. Be patient: If the price doesn’t give a clear signal, stay on the sidelines. Waiting for a proper entry reduces losses from impulsive trades. How to Back-Test This Setup: Look at past trades where the price pulled back into a similar buy zone with Fibonacci overlap. Record how often these setups worked and whether waiting for the confirmation signals improved your success rate. Summary for New Traders This chart is a great example of a continuation setup: Trend identification: The trend is still up, with a correction (wedge). Entry zone: The buy zone is based on Fibonacci and prior support. Wait for confirmation: Use candlestick patterns or break/retest setups. Targets and stop-loss: Define a stop below the buy zone, and target the next highs (2,675 and 2,700). This is an excellent opportunity to practice patience and discipline—wait for the right signals, and trade according to the plan. Use small positions if you're new, or try this setup in a demo account to build confidence!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
BTC's Accumulation Phase: Identifying Cycles and Support ZonesH ello, BTC has been in accumulation since spring this year. The white dotted lines show the accumulation curves. There are multiple cycles, each with a pump and a dump arm. The cycles might be different in size, but they share the green bottom support zone where large investors prefer to buy. Bitcoin has a bullish cross signal from the MACD indicator at the bottom. However, the current price is far above EMA 20/50/100/200. Thus, a dip might manifest to correct the price per the EMAs. There's a high probability that players will buy the dip, though and the bull run can continue. I wouldn't buy now because of the potential dip and because the price's at the falling trendline resistance. I aim for long positions, but I'd wait for a correction first and closely monitor how the price reacts around the falling resistance. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W42/2024) // AlgoFyreThe market shows a bullish scenario with potential for an impulse wave up after a correction, possibly surpassing the all-time high post-election. However, two bearish scenarios suggest a major drop to 20K in the long term, highlighting significant downside risk. 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal (Green) Complete : The green lines on the chart represent the completion of the leading diagonal, which is the first wave of a larger impulse (wave 1). Leading diagonals often occur in the first wave of a new trend, indicating that a bullish trend is beginning. This is particularly important because it sets the foundation for a stronger upward movement that could follow after a corrective phase. 🔸 Corrective Phase (Red ABC) : After completing the first wave, we are now expecting a corrective structure. The red lines represent a potential ABC correction, a typical 3-wave corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory. This correction could retrace some of the gains made in the leading diagonal, potentially finding support near key Fibonacci retracement levels (like the 0.25, 0.5, or 0.75 levels) drawn in orange on the chart. 🔸 Timing Around the US Election : The chart indicates that this ABC correction may take place leading into the US election, which is often a period of increased market uncertainty and volatility. It seems that the correction is expected to conclude before or around this event, setting the stage for the next major move. 🔸 Bullish Impulse (Wave 3) : After the correction, the chart projects a strong bullish impulse (the large green arrow), which would be the beginning of wave 3. In Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an impulsive structure, often leading to significant gains. The breakout above previous highs around the 67,000-68,000 level (marked by the green wave 5 in the diagonal) would confirm the start of this impulsive wave, which could target much higher levels, possibly into the 70,000+ range. 🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): The leading diagonal in green (wave 1) suggests that a new bullish cycle is underway. We are currently expecting a 3-wave corrective move (ABC) before the next leg up. The correction could end around key Fibonacci levels, potentially coinciding with the US election. After the correction, a powerful wave 3 impulse is expected, likely driving prices significantly higher. 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Bigger ABC Correction : The market is in the midst of a larger corrective pattern. The current movement is within the B-wave of this ABC structure. 🔸 Flat Pattern for B-Wave : The B-wave is forming a flat correction, which typically indicates a sideways consolidation with a final leg up before a downward movement. 🔸 C-Wave to 52K Area : After completing the B-wave, we expect a C-wave to the downside, targeting around the 52K level. This drop represents the completion of the B-wave within the larger ABC pattern. 🔸 Larger C-Wave Up : Following this drop, the final C-wave to the upside is projected. While this wave could potentially retest or even exceed the all-time high (ATH), it's not guaranteed. The key idea is that a significant rally is expected after the corrective B-wave down. 🔸 Major Downtrend Next Year : After this anticipated rally, a substantial downtrend is expected in the following year, potentially driving the price down to 20K or lower. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Completing a B-wave flat correction within a larger ABC structure. Expecting a C-wave down to around 52K before a potential larger rally. After the larger C-wave up, a significant decline is expected, leading to 20K or lower in the following year. 🔴 Mid-Term Outlook (Next Few Months to Year) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal Completed (Red) : The red structure shows the formation of a large leading diagonal to the downside, suggesting that a strong downtrend has already been established. 🔸 Corrective ABC (Green) : After the diagonal, a corrective ABC pattern has formed. This correction has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a common level for corrections to complete before resuming the primary trend. 🔸 Major Move to the Downside : Following the completion of this corrective phase, the chart is signaling the beginning of a significant bearish move, potentially leading to a price target near the 20K level. This aligns with the broader bearish outlook. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Finished a leading diagonal to the downside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. Correction reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Expecting a major bearish move from this point, with a potential target of 20K. 🔶 Key Takeaway The market presents both bullish and bearish possibilities. The bullish scenario suggests that after a leading diagonal (wave 1) completes, a short-term ABC correction will occur, followed by a powerful wave 3 impulse to the upside, potentially pushing prices beyond the all-time high after the US election. On the other hand, the bearish scenarios indicate a significant downturn: one expects a C-wave drop to around 52K before a larger rally, followed by a steep decline to 20K or lower next year, while the other points to a completed leading diagonal with a corrective ABC reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level, signaling the start of a major move down to 20K. Despite the potential short-term upside, both bearish scenarios ultimately point to a substantial long-term decline.
by AlgoFyre
Still sticking to long gold!Today, gold reached 2638 during the retracement process and then rebounded again, but did not effectively fall below 2640. The gold correction did not fall below 50%, so there is still room for gold to rise again. From the perspective of technical structure, gold has signs of building a head and shoulders bottom pattern at the short-term level. Once gold cannot effectively fall below 2640, it is still possible for gold to rise to the 2670-2680 area. So in terms of short-term trading, if gold falls back to the 2645-2640 area, I will consider adding more money to be long gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading-Hawkeye
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the like and subscribe buttons! Last week, concerns about inflation due to the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased as the September Producer Price Index (PPI) came out, strengthening expectations for a rate cut within the year. Fedwatch now reflects over a 90% chance of a 25bp rate cut in the November FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Japan has yet to provide any clear hints about a rate hike. Recently, Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor Himino stated that future data must be carefully evaluated. The market interprets this as a delay in Japan's rate hike, expecting it to happen either in December this year or in January next year. In Europe, due to the recent poor performance of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI and inflation falling below target, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bp in its October monetary policy meeting. + October 16: UK September CPI + October 17: Eurozone September CPI, ECB rate decision, U.S. September retail sales USDJPY surged to the 150 level, but is experiencing a pullback due to resistance in the 149-152 range. If the pullback continues in this range, we expect it to drop to the 140 level and form a box range. However, if there’s a short-term pullback and it rises to 152, resistance is expected at that level, leading to a fall back to the 145 level. If variables cause a breakout above 152, we could see additional upward movement to 154. If the market moves contrary to expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.
Short
by shawntime_academy