Ark's next peak?Hello, fellow traders! Long time no see. I apologize for the late post.
This is my analysis on Ark (ARKUSD).
1️⃣ Analysis
Looking at the daily chart of Ark, we notice a big spike in 2018 with price reaching near 12 at its peak. We then see a much smaller spike in 2021 with the price reaching 3.5, followed by an even smaller spike in late 2023 with 1.9. We see the price under 1 USD if not for these spikes as we are now. These kinds of volatile movements suggest that Ark might have been subject to market manipulation over the years and there’s even a paper about Ark being a target of ‘pump and dump’ scheme. While I cannot say for sure, the chart data is convincing to such allegation.
Zooming into the recent bars, we see the price gradually reaching the price action zone. This zone, as the name suggests, has shown multiple price actions in the past. With BTC breaking through the major resistance level and peaking its new high every day, Ark could also benefit from such a rally – one certain thing is that it will be a bad idea to trade against the current market sentiment.
2️⃣ Expectations
With the historical bull rally on its side, Ark might attempt a breakout of the zone as we’ve seen in other cryptos recently.
However, there are several factors I want to address.
The previous crucial breakouts were all delivered with decisive and strong momentum – breaking through the price action zone with a single bullish candle (or multiple smaller ones). This would’ve allowed us an opportunity to enter long after confirming the rebound at the retest. However, the current movement of Ark is not showing such momentum. Instead, it is slowly and steadily approaching the zone, increasing the possibility of a rebound.
But here’s the twist: With Bitcoin recently breaking through the resistance line after some consolidation and Tron also breaking through the demand zone and recording new high (despite its slow uptrend over the year), this is a time of great uncertainties and adventure – we cannot assume that the zone will be respected for Ark, either.
Another factor is that we see a very similar pattern in February 2019.
We see a decisive, strong bearish momentum in November 2018 (just like we see in June 2024) and a ‘relatively’ steady uptrend in February (just like we see in September 2024).
This was the time when Bitcoin started a bull run with its price quadrupling in 5 months from 3k to 13k. Meanwhile, Ark failed to break through the zone even with such momentum in the market. This suggests that Ark may not always follow the market movement.
So here’s the summary.
1. The crypto might be a target of market manipulation based on its unusual chart movements and studies.
2. The only significant breakouts have happened with a strong, temporary momentum breaking through the zone which we don’t see right now. Instead, we see a slow and steady approach to the zone.
3. The crypto has past of not following the market movement as Bitcoin quadrupled its price in few months.
➡ These sets of mixed information really give me headache and I apologize if you came here for a prediction. But below are some suggestions for how we might make profit from such a confusing analysis.
3️⃣ Key approach
Our first strategy is to enter long after conformation. There are three possible entries.
The first and the most obvious one would be entering after 1. Breakout of the zone and 2. Rebound at the retest. Our initial exit would be slightly below 0.78672. Our next exit would be slightly below the resistance line of the uptrend channel, around 0.81. Our next and final exit is very interesting, though. If the price continues to rise after the first two exits, this could potentially signal the 4th spike.
I found something interesting as I was analyzing the chart – as you see in the chart above, the price of each spike’s peak has been very close to the square root of the previous spike’s peak so far. Of course, there’s no guarantee that this pattern will continue, but if it does, the next peak would be around square root of 1.86380, which is 1.36521 - applying the error, the estimation would be 1.28330. So, this would be our final exit.
I want to make clear that this is not a prediction, it’s a vague idea of where we might want to close our long position in the future. We don’t know the future. We don’t even know if the pattern will continue, and it only has been a year since the last spike, too. My point is you are fine with exiting earlier and frankly I would recommend that, too.
Our second entry would be after 1. Break of Structure at the price of 0.78672 and 2. Rebound near the resistance line of the channel. Honestly, I don’t recommend this entry as much because trading outside of the trend leaves us with a lot of uncertainties just like the current status of Bitcoin.
Our initial exit would be slightly below 0.87789. I recommend exiting slightly below the major line to play safer – price may not touch the line at all. Our next exit would be slightly below 0.98261. If the price ever surpasses these two exits, our final exit would be around 1.28330 (which also happens to be close to the peak on March 14th.)
Our third entry would be entering after confirming the rebound near the support line of the channel. This entry is most unlikely due to the current market sentiment, yet it is the safest of all three entries. Our exit would be below the price action zone.
4️⃣ Other approach
Our second strategy is to wait until the price reaches near 1.28330, which is my estimation for the next spike’s peak. After confirming the rebound, we will then enter short. Our ideal exit would be the price action zone, but feel free to exit whenever – it could be very stressful watching the market moves.
Personally, I would close the position before the price ever reaches the zone. I learned to be thankful and satisfied with the profit even if it is not as big as it could’ve been. Nobody really knows the future: it’s probably better to lock in profit while you can. I say this because I know how stressful it gets – EVEN IF the price eventually reaches the target price. This also works for me because I can rotate my assets into new opportunities more often as a full-time trader.
I want you to view my exit points as ‘an ideal time and price to exit’ rather than a fixed one, is what I wanted to say.
5️⃣ Considerations
Like I mentioned couple of times, Ark could be subject to ‘pump and dump’ scheme so keep that in mind and be extra cautious. Also, the crypto only has market cap of 109 million USD which is very small.
I’ve also mentioned that Ark has a history of not following the market movement. And it doesn’t seem to follow it right now, either. However, two recent spikes were indeed fueled by Bitcoin’s aggressive uptrend in December 2020 and October 2023. This mix of information gives us a lot of confusion which leads to my conclusion below 😅
React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
God bless :)
Deuteronomy 6:5
Thank you for reading the long analysis and I apologize for the late post. I’ll try to post more frequently.
