Trend Lines
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
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In the September FOMC minutes, we confirmed that there were a few members who did not agree with the 50bp rate cut by the Fed. These members expressed concerns that a rapid rate cut could trigger the reemergence of inflation or send unnecessary recession signals to the market. Along with this, the recent surprise in U.S. employment figures has led to continued speculation about the possibility of a rate hold at the November FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, in Australia, the central bank released its minutes, confirming that during the September 23-24 meeting, they agreed that given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, all scenarios—rate cuts, holds, and hikes—were still on the table.
In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its base rate by 50bp, from 5.25% to 4.75%.
- The U.S. September Consumer Price Index will be released on October 10.
- On October 11, the UK’s GDP, Germany’s September CPI, and the U.S. September Producer Price Index will be announced.
The AUD/USD is experiencing significant resistance around the 0.69400 level. It has now fallen to the 0.67000 level, and further declines toward 0.66000 are anticipated. The most likely scenario, based on the current chart, is a drop to 0.66000, followed by a rebound back to 0.69000.
However, if the market unexpectedly breaks through the 0.66000 level, I will quickly adjust the strategy accordingly.
SPX Short: Seeking PeakThe new high has forced me to recount the last wave and forced me to bring back the original count where I had expected another wave in the early days of October. This has definitely dragged on for too long.
Now, let me first say this: there is an alternate count that I am holding that has a scary price target just slightly more than 6000 for SPX. So if I am wrong, CUT THE SHORT POSITION.
With that, let me continue.
As you can see over in this chart, I will bring your attention to the following:
1. A huge wedge for primary wave 5 itself in Yellow.
2. An internal wave for wave 5 of 5 in Green.
3. A Fibonacci extension that is projected from wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 to the entire intermediate wave 5 (blue wave).
4. An ending diagonal for wave 5 of intermediate wave 5, drawn in green minor wave.
5. The breakdown of the ending diagonal using corrective a-b-c waves in purple (there is no 1-2-3 waves in TradingView for usage).
6. RSI is extended overbought region.
From the above, my primary count is that we should see SPX peaking this week. There are 2 potential peak points:
1. Fibonacci extension level of 5802.
2. The upper trendline of the wedges which will be around 5820.
The above 2 price points are potential entry points. An alternate way for short entry will be to wait for a reversal candle.
You also see in this chart a purple breakdown line. This line can be used if you are a strong hand waiting for the final confirmation of the break and can withstand volatility.
Good luck!
Alibaba - Finally The Trendline Breakout!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) finally broke above the bearish trendline:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Alibaba is breaking out and the breakout is not unexpected whatsoever. For a long time, Alibaba has been hugging the resistance trendline and finally managed to fulfil its destiny. This could very well be the bottom of the bear market and the start of something big: new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $115, $80
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Continue to short gold after the reboundBros, this week should be magical. Gold has touched my expectations one by one during the decline. I said that gold would at least retest the 2615-2610 area, and it is even possible to touch the area near 2600. Gold fell to around 2604 yesterday, which is exactly in line with my expectations.
Gold seems to have stopped falling and once rebounded above 2620, but in fact, I am not optimistic about the sustainability of gold's rebound here, and I think gold is a bit tempting to go long now. Once gold starts to kill bulls, I fully believe that 2600 is not the end point. Gold still has room to continue to fall, at least retesting the 2590-2580 area, and even looking at the area near 2550.
So in terms of short-term trading, you can boldly short gold with the short-term resistance in the 2630-2640 area! Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, you can boldly short gold by relying on the short-term resistance of the 2630-2640 area! Bros, let us look forward to the next profits!
BTC Primed for Explosive Wave 3 Rally: All-Time Highs in Sight?BTC looks to have completed its ABC correction for Wave 2 in the short-term impulse wave. The correction landed perfectly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a textbook setup for an ABC pattern. With this, BTC is now entering Wave 3, which historically offers the strongest price movements.
In the immediate term, BTC is poised to break through Waves 1 and 2 of 3 quickly. But the real fireworks will likely come when we hit Wave 3 of 3, which could push BTC up to as high as $68k—a target that’s been on the cards for some time. If we manage to break through the upper trendline during Waves 4 and 5 of the higher degree trend, BTC could be set for new all-time highs within the next few weeks.
With all eyes on this setup, it feels like November 5th could be a pivotal moment for BTC. Let’s see how the market unfolds, but it’s looking very bullish!
EURUSD Analysis==>>Short term==>>(Fundamental + Technical)Today's Fundamental analysis of the FX:EURUSD highlights several key factors:
1-Expected ECB Rate Cuts : With Eurozone inflation dropping below 2% in September, there is growing speculation about further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in both October and December. These rate cuts would likely weaken the euro, as lower borrowing costs reduce demand for the currency.
2-US Economic Performance : The recent U.S. labor market report exceeded expectations, showing solid job growth and a lower unemployment rate. This has strengthened the dollar, with investors now awaiting the upcoming U.S. CPI report(10 October), which may offer insights into future Fed policy
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Now, let's go to the technical analysis of EURUSD .
EURUSD is moving in the Heavy Support zone($1.0982-$1.0916) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , near the Support lines and 100_SMA(Daily) .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect EURUSD to rise at least to near the Resistance zone($1.005-$1.0995) after breaking the Downtrend line .
Note: If EURUSD manages to break the Heavy Support zone($1.0982-$1.0916) and support lines, we can expect EURUSD to touch at least $1.0878.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze ( EURUSD), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
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Potential Breakout in Palo Alto NetworksPalo Alto Networks has been rangebound most of the year, but now the cybersecurity firm could be breaking out.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since August 20. PANW pushed against that trendline last week and broke it on Tuesday.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 100-day SMA. Both are above the 200-day SMA. That kind of sequence, with faster averages above slower averages, may reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Next, higher quarterly lows are also potentially consistent with a longer-term uptrend.
Finally, Bollinger Band Width shows narrowing volatility. Will that tight range of motion give way to faster movement?
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OPUSDT: Bull Run or Fakeout? Critical Retest Incoming!Yello Paradisers! Is #OPUSDT about to face a significant test of its bullish strength? The pair has been respecting an ascending support trendline, with multiple taps followed by strong upward movements. Recent price action has shown OPUSDT making higher highs and closing firmly above key levels.
💎#OPUSDT is trading above both the 100 and 200 Moving Averages (MAs), indicating that the bulls are still in control. However, a potential retest of the trendline is on the horizon, which also aligns with these MAs, making it a crucial level to watch.
💎The probability is now that OPUSDT will move towards trendline , tap and then will be facing 1.9033 Minor resistance that could stall upward momentum and 2.21 - 2.32 – Strong resistance zone that could determine the next big move.
💎If we see a 12-hour candle closing below the MAs and the support zone at $1.4054, this would signal a breakdown and invalidate our bullish thesis, potentially shifting the momentum to the downside.
Keep these levels on your radar, Paradisers, and trade cautiously! The next move could define OPUSDT’s trajectory for the weeks to come.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Breakout Imminent? ONG Bulls Challenge Key Resistance for a Big Ontology Gas (ONG) has been consolidating since July 2024, fluctuating within a range between the support zone in Green$0.2418 - $0.2512 and the resistance level at $0.3500. This prolonged period of sideways movement suggests a lack of decisive momentum from either the bulls or the bears, as the price has bounced between support and resistance within this range. The sideways action has been mostly uneventful until September when a clear shift in momentum became apparent.
Since early September, ONG has begun to show signs of a bullish trend, consistently making higher lows and higher highs. This suggests that buying interest has been increasing, and market sentiment is shifting in favor of the bulls. However, despite this uptrend, the token has faced significant resistance at the $0.3300 level. Multiple attempts to break above this resistance have been unsuccessful, with the price falling back each time it approaches or slightly breaches this zone.
Currently, ONG is trading below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical indicator for gauging long-term trend strength. The EMA 200 is sitting just above the $0.3300 resistance, which strengthens the importance of this level as a significant barrier for price progression. While the overall setup appears bullish, with a strong uptrend in place, the inability to break and hold above the $0.3300 resistance creates a key challenge for further bullish continuation.
GOLD - Price can turn around and start to fall to support levelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price declined to support line and then at once bounced and started to grow near this line.
In a short time, price rose to $2625 level, broke it, and later made a retest, after which bounced up to $2665 level.
Price some time traded near this level and even broke it, but soon turned around and broke it with support line.
Then Gold continued to decline inside falling channel, where it firstly declined to support line and then bounced up.
After this, price reached $2665 level, but at once made correction and then backed up, after which fell again.
Now it rising, so, I think Gold can enter to resistance area and then bounce down to $2625 support level.
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HelenP. I Bitcoin will drop from resistance level to $59100Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some days ago price entered to wedge and at once rebounded fromresistane line and started to decline. In a short time, BTC fell lower then support level, which coincided with the support zone, but then it tried to back up and failed. Next, the price dropped to the trend line, which is the support line of the wedge also, and then started to grow. BTC quickly rose to the 57500 level, broke it, and later made a retest and continued to move up. Later, the price reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and some time traded near this level. Then BTC broke the 63600 level and later rose to the resistance line of the wedge, after which turned around and made an impulse down, thereby exiting from the wedge and breaking the resistance level as well. After this movement, BTC little declined more and not long time ago rose back to the 63600 level. So, now I expect that BTCUSDT will rebound from the resistance level and drop. Therefore I set my goal at 59100 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Is MYROUSDT Setting Up for a Bullish Breakout, or Is It a Trap?Yello, Paradisers! 🚨 Are you prepared for the potential bullish move on MYROUSDT?
💎MYROUSDT broke out of a key resistive trendline and is now consolidating. Within this consolidation phase, a W pattern appears to be forming.
💎If MYROUSDT breaks and closes above the resistant zone, this will validate the W pattern and significantly increase the likelihood of a strong bullish move. However, caution is essential! The broader market trend, especially BTC’s price action, will play a crucial role. If BTC shows signs of strength, it will further support our bullish bias. But if BTC starts turning bearish, it’s better to avoid this analysis.
💎On the flip side, if MYROUSDT breaks down and closes below the support zone, this would invalidate our bullish outlook completely.
🎖Always remember, Paradisers, disciplined trading and patience will set you apart from the crowd. Stick to your strategy and wait for the highest probability setups.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
3 Technical Analysis Tools to Identify Resistance Levels on GOLD
How to trade Gold when it is constantly setting new all-time highs?
When Gold is trading beyond historical levels, technical analysis can help you to identify the next potentially strong resistance levels.
In this article, I will teach you the only 3 technical analysis tools you need to find the next key resistances and predict future correctional movements on Gold chart.
Tool 1 - Trend Line
The first technical analysis tool that will help you to identify a potentially strong resistance is a trend line based on previous highs.
Simply analyze the previous historic highs and try to find a trend line that was respected by the market at least 3 times in the past.
It means that such a trend line should be based at least on 3 historic highs.
Look at that rising trend line on Gold on a daily time frame. It is based on 3 historic highs, and it can be a potentially strong resistance.
Tool 2 - Psychological Levels
The second technical analysis tool is psychological levels.
These levels are based on round, whole numbers.
In our example, the closest psychological level is 2500 level. This level is based on round numbers, it is a multiple of 500 and 100.
It can compose a potentially strong resistance cluster.
Tool 3 - Fibonacci Levels
The third technical analysis tool is Fibonacci extension and confluence.
In order to identify a potentially strong resistance with Fibonacci extension, you should identify at least 3 last bullish impulses/waves.
Above is the example of 3 significant impulse legs on Gold chart on a daily.
Draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on these 3 impulse legs.
Here are important Extension levels to consider:
-1.272
-1.414
- 1.618
Above, you can see how I draw Fibonacci Extension levels based on all the impulse legs that we identified.
Your task is to identify the point where the extension levels of 3 impulses match in one point. Such a point will be called confluence zone.
This confluence zone will be the next potentially strong resistance.
These 3 technical tools helped us to identify the resistances beyond all historical levels easily.
Remember that there is no 100% guarantee that all the resistances that we spotted will be respected by the market.
For that reason, you should strictly analyze a price action and a reaction of the price to these levels before you open a short trade.
Alternatively, remember that these resistances can be applied as the targets for long trades.
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