BEML @ Make or Break pointBEML CMP: 3791.20; RSI: 40.01;
BEML has near completion of ABC correction wave (Shown Elongated Flat with Irregular Failure pattern). Basis above chart reading, now BEML has entered time correction zone and may consolidate in band of 4280-3430 , which may last till Jan 2025.
If the consolidation band is broken upwards ( 3 day closing above 4280 level) , which may take the script in price expansion mode and new wave formation will take the script to 4604-5052 & finally to 6234 levels.
Breakdown below the lower band of consolidation zone and close below 3430, will invalidate the ABC pattern counting and script may slip to 3157 and if this level is broken eventually will find support at 2710 levels.
Scenario 1: Breakout above 4280
Buy above: 4280
Stop Loss: 3881
Target: 4604-5052-6234
Scenario 2: Breakout below 3430
Short: 3312
Stop Loss: 3430
Target: 3157 -2710
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Trendlineanalysis
Gold Long Term Analysis Nov 15I published some trend analysis using the adaptive trend finder 2 weeks ago. I wanted to revisit this given the eventful couple of weeks we've had.
The previous analysis highlighted an ultra-strong uptrend over the previous 20 weeks on the weekly chart. Prior to the election, the rally in gold the price showed little sign of slowing down. In the last two weeks we've seen a fall in the gold price of 1.9% and 4.5% (the largest drop since 2021). Apart from the obvious, there appears to be several factors leading to the drop.
Donal trump's emphatic win and a number of his stated policies that could see interest rates stay higher for longer (think tarrifs, tax cuts)
Economic data that came in inline with expectations
A rate cut that had already been fully priced in
Essentially, the gold price is being weighed down by expectations on policies that are potentially months aways and stronger than exepected economic data. Jerome Powell also indicated in his speech that the Fed sees the pace of rate cuts slowing down in the near future.
Whilst higher inflation is typically seen as a positive for the gold price (gold as an 'inflation hedge'). Higher inflation is accompanied by higher interest rates which act as a negative for the non-yielding asset.
Last week's close broke the established 20 week price trend there is, however, a longer term trend that can be observed over the last 60 weeks. Last week's closing price respects this trend. Whilst the expectation of a technical correction hadn't eventuated, we may find that this is the bottom of the dip as long as there is not further negative news for gold. Central Bank and ETF demand is still strong. A shift from gold to risk assets following the Trump election does remain a risk for the short-term gold price.
There are a couple of key resistance points to watch this week to understand whether this is the bottom of the dip. I'll explore this in another post.
GBPCAD can we see higher bearish push
GBPCAD higly good price action structure, price touch trend lines 2 times, we have visible and SYMMETRICAL TRIANGL inside trend lines-zone and CHANNEL pattern is visible its be breaked today.
Currently here bearish push still expecting till next long term trend line
SUP zone: 1.80200
RES zone: 1.77600, 1.77000
Range breakout | Impulse of bull starthi Traders,
1. The swing formation is solid
2. BEL has taken the ascending trend line support.
3. The the range bound is weekly has broke upward, leading to impulse wave of bull trend.
4. Projected Target 1 and Target 2 with 20% and 40% returns from the CMP with 1:81 and 1:4.01 risk reward ratio respectively.
Coca Cola - A Clear Trading Setup!Coca Cola ( NYSE:KO ) will provide a textbook setup soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Coca Cola is one of these "under the radar" stocks which is just trending higher and higher but nobody is really paying attention. However currently Coca Cola is retesting a resistance trendline of the governing rising channel pattern so a short term retracement is quite likely.
Levels to watch: $72, $65
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTC 4h-48 long forecastBTC looks very bullish on almost any timeframe. structure tells us we could have a pullback soon into unmitigated MB's which act as large SnD zones for those who dont know. MB's tend to have a high % of being mitigated before the long trend can continue. they get mitigated to cover the institutional shorts that made that last move down to liquidate any longs before the pump happened. Of course there isnt always a mitigation and this could very well continue upwards without any for of mitigation but that is something we shouldnt trade as there is very limited RR to capitalize on.
Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for Short and Long OpportunitiesI'm watching the Nasdaq closely as it approaches a critical decision point. In this analysis, I’ll outline two potential scenarios, including both short and long trade ideas based on the confluence of key technical levels.
Current Setup and Key Level: 20,320
Right now, the 20,320 level is my primary focus. This level aligns with:
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend, suggesting potential resistance.
The VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price), which is acting as a dynamic resistance level.
This confluence makes 20,320 a critical resistance zone, where the market might either reverse or push through, setting the tone for the next significant move.
Scenario 1: Short Opportunity at 20,320 Resistance
If the price approaches 20,320 and shows signs of rejection (like a bearish candle pattern), I’m looking to take a short position at this level. Here’s why:
Fibonacci & VWAP Confluence: The alignment of the 38.2% Fib level with the VWAP reinforces this level as a strong potential resistance.
Risk Management: I would place a stop-loss above the 50% Fib level (around 20,400) to manage risk if the price breaks higher.
Targets: My initial target would be around the 20,000 level. If this breaks, I anticipate a stronger move downward due to potential stop-losses being triggered below 20,000 (more on that below).
Note on Stop-Loss Clusters: I believe many traders might have their stops placed just below the 20,000 mark. If the price breaks below this level, we could see a quick, momentum-driven move lower as these stops are triggered, potentially driving price toward deeper levels.
Scenario 2: Bullish Break Above 20,320
If the price breaks above 20,320 and holds above both the VWAP and the 38.2% Fib level, it could signal a bullish shift. Here’s what I’m looking for in this scenario:
Confirmation Above VWAP and Fib Level: A strong break and close above these levels would indicate that bulls are taking control and might push for higher retracement levels.
Potential Targets: In this scenario, I’d look for the price to move towards the 50% Fibonacci level (around 20,400) as the next resistance, followed by the 61.8% level near 20,500 if momentum holds.
Invalidation for Shorts: A decisive break and hold above 20,320 would invalidate the short setup. If this happens, I’ll look for potential long entries on a pullback to the VWAP or 38.2% Fib as support, with stops below these levels to manage risk.
Conclusion
The 20,320 area is the key level to watch here, with potential for both short and long setups:
Short Scenario: Look for rejection at 20,320 to target a move down to 20,000, with a possible extension lower if the 20,000 support breaks.
Long Scenario: A break above 20,320 could open the door for further upside, with potential targets around 20,400 and 20,500.
This setup combines technical indicators with price psychology, as stops clustered around the 20,000 level may drive significant moves if that support level is breached. I'll be monitoring how the price reacts to 20,320 closely for confirmation of either setup.
Let me know if you see anything differently or if you have any questions. Happy trading!
$SPY tough spot right now, but there's still a glimmer of hope!On the daily chart, there are three bearish signals without even considering indicators:
1. Price is below the EMAs.
2. With a gap down.
3. From a coil spring.
On the weekly chart, the trend remains intact. However, if we drop below the fast EMA, a significant test will be the slow EMA.
The key level to watch is the low of the daily channel line at $554, which aligns with the weekly slow EMA at approximately $551. For me, that represents the definitive line in the sand for SPY.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
We wanted price to reject the high and give us the short into the red box defence during the early session levels 2730-35. We did get that move but it was achieved via the gap on open giving traders a couple of opportunities to take the long trade from the level following the path. We're yet to complete the first bullish target but we're on our way so we'll stick with the plan!
Based on the structure and range at the moment we're not discounting another dip into the low but will look for pull backs into the 2735 region to hold to continue the move upside.
Support 2735, resistance 2750 could give a reaction for the short scalp. Keep an eye on the red boxes, pinned below, they're working really well.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Is Palantir in a Danger Zone? We will see after the report... Palantir is about to announce its quarterly report.
As we analyzed in the last report, the price reached its highest point after several years, but after reaching this liquidity zone, it had a pullback as we announced before.
However, Palantir is showing strength in this area, and we ended on the last candle where it will attempt again to surpass this liquidity zone with strongly.
Will it succeed?
I believe Palantir has the volume to continue moving a bit higher, but at this point is entering an area where the upward momentum is slowing significantly. On one hand, we’re seeing a double-top forming, and the candle hasn’t fully formed yet. We need to wait and see if the next candle shows liquidity. If so, we should be cautious about the wick length, as that could signal trouble for Palantir.
so with the earnings report approaching, there is a lot of uncertainty, which may make it difficult for the price to break this liquidity zone.
We should stay alert this November 4th. Palantir has excellent fundamentals, but its recent reports have barely exceeded analysts' expectations. If this report misses even by a small margin, I think we could see a significant drop due to the stock being heavily inflated.
Here are Palantir's latest results:
Nov 02, 2023
2023 (Q3)
Analysts = 0.06 / Reported = 0.07 (BEAT)
Feb 05, 2024
2023 (Q4)
0.08 / 0.08
May 06, 2024
2024 (Q1)
0.08 / 0.08
Aug 05, 2024
2024 (Q2)
0.08 / 0.09
Nov 04, 2024
2024 (Q3)
0.09 / (Mon, Nov 4)
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
TRADE SAFE!
Best regards!
Why Is Gold and The Dollar Moving Up Together? Hey there,
You may have noticed that Gold has been making record highs, and while in the past this would come at the cost of a weaker dollar, we see this time the dollar has actually hit a two and a half month high.
So, how is this possible? Well, in today's video we explore the possible reason behind this unusual term of events and bring clarity to those of you who might be wondering what exactly is going on in the background.
Dow Jones - There Is A Lot More Upside!Dow Jones ( TVC:DJI ) is just starting the next bullish impulse:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The Dow Jones is anything but bearish and over the past couple of months, value stocks in general have actually been outperforming growth stocks significantly. I do expect all time highs on basically all major indices and the Dow Jones might even head for the $50.000 mark next.
Levels to watch: $50.000, $35.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
EURUSD Swing longWe've had a nice long downward move on this pair and I think it's about time for a new leg upward. Start to buy this pair around here. As you can see from pervious lows there's no real rush, it tends to wallow before making a a bigger move. DCA / Grid (Mean reversion) entry approach to this trade.
Nvidia - New All Time High Is Coming!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) can rally another +50%:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating an expected correction of about -40%, Nvidia is now almost back to new all time highs, showing no signs of weakness despite the recent tech stock correction. If Nvidia creates a new all time high, it is quite likely that it will rally again, potentially all the way up to $400.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SWING IDEA - GLANDStock has completed its Correction phase and found its lowest at 860, much below the 1700 IPO listing.
Stock seems to be forming a new Higher High and Higher Low Pattern since Oct 2023.
Also it can be seen following the Trendline as well.
A Hammer on the weekly close last week, could indicate a strong support forming exactly on the Trendline, which is a good sign for further upward move.
If all goes right, the stock could make it to its next leg up.
Stoploss mentioned is crucial. If broken, the stock could start seeing further lows.
Great bullish momentum in Nas100 Hello traders,
As you can see, there is a strong amendment, a bullish momentum today in NASDAQ, giving us a great opportunity for a bullish a long train.As you can see from the chart, there is.an inclination to go up upward to reach the daily level of 20474 which is.A higher.Target, So please keep in mind that this is a trade that we took pre market since early in the morning the market showed some significant volume.With the.Upside move of the standard deviation. Also a breakthrough of the 50 moving average.That gave us more confluence that the market is going higher to reach the daily level. So please keep in mind that today we have an.Economic data that will be released today for the.Uh, uh, what is it? Umm, the uh.Excuse me? Initial jobless claim is gonna be released today and if it is positive, so we might see an upside down of the trend where we'll have like.a move downward or a reversal of the trend if so we should be looking for 20124 level which is a previous daily level which is well respected. And as you can see from the chart, those lines are very very.Helpful that show us it's like a road map for the price action to be moving.From level to level, this is how we can make money off of.It's pretty simple, but it's really effective, so please pay attention to those levels and let's make money together..
Nike - Catch this reversal!NYSE:NKE continues its overall uptrend despite the recent drop of -60% to the downside.
All you need in order to catch the reversal of the decade is simply one line: a support trendline. Nike is currently approaching a support trendline, which has been sending prices higher for the past 30 years. Just this fact alone makes me believe that we will see (much) higher prices on Nike over the next couple of weeks and months, but we still need bullish confirmation first!
Levels to watch: $70
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading