Trendlineanalysis
XAU/USD Poised for Potential Gains Amid Market UncertaintyFor today, the technical outlook for XAU/USD (gold vs. USD) indicates a possible upward movement, with gold continuing its bullish trend due to various macroeconomic factors. Analysts suggest that if gold remains above key support levels, there could be further gains. Some expect it to test resistance around $2685, while if prices fall below $2668, a short-term decline to $2635 may follow
This is influenced by ongoing geopolitical risks and market speculation on future Federal Reserve policy, which tends to drive safe-haven assets like gold higher
cool cool whirlpool
### 1. **9-Month Consolidation (📦 Box Pattern)**
**Pattern**: **Rectangle/Box Consolidation**
**Details**: The price has been **moving sideways** within a range of about **₹300 points** for the last 9 months, creating a consolidation zone. This period of consolidation indicates **indecision** in the market, where neither bulls nor bears have taken full control.
- **Implications**:
If the price **breaks above the consolidation zone**, it could signal a **bullish breakout** and may lead to further price increases.
A **breakdown** below this zone would signal a potential bearish move.
### 2. **Volume Spike (🔺)**
**Pattern**: **Volume Spike with Price Breakout Attempt**
**Details**: Toward the right side of the chart, there is a visible **increase in trading volume** during the consolidation, which usually signals an **impending breakout**.
- **Implications**:
**Rising volume** is typically a precursor to a strong price move. If the breakout from the consolidation happens with sustained volume, it will confirm the validity** of the breakout.
### 3. **Descending Trendline Break (📉)**
**Pattern**: **Trendline Breakout**
**Details**: The stock had been in a **downtrend** for a prolonged period from **2021** until early **2023**, as indicated by the purple **descending trendline**. However, this trendline was broken in early 2023, signaling a potential end to the downtrend.
- **Implications**:
A **trendline break** suggests a potential **shift in sentiment** from bearish to bullish. The fact that the price has stabilized and entered a consolidation phase after the break hints that the stock might be building a base for future upward movement.
### 4. **Gap Down Recovery (⬇️⬆️)**
**Pattern**: **Gap Fill**
**Details**: In **Dec 2021**, there was a **gap down**, which is a significant drop in price. However, by Jan 2024**, this gap was **filled** with a strong **gap-up move**, indicating that the price returned to its previous levels.
- **Implications**:
**Gap fills** are often seen as signs of market strength, and in this case, it signals that the stock has recovered from prior selling pressure and may be positioned for further gains.
### 5. **Resistance Levels (🔴 Horizontal Lines)**
**Pattern**: **Horizontal Resistance**
**Details**: The price is nearing two major **resistance levels**:
**First Resistance at ₹2,534.70**
**Second Resistance at ₹2,754.50**
- **Implications**:
If the price moves toward and tests these resistance levels, a **break above these points** would be a very **bullish signal**. However, if the stock struggles to break these levels, it could face **rejection** and move back toward support.
### Summary:
The stock of Whirlpool of India Ltd. has been **consolidating** for a significant period, indicating the market is indecisive and waiting for a catalyst.
The **breakout from the trendline** and **volume spike** are signs of potential strength.
A **breakout above the consolidation** zone could lead to a move towards testing **higher resistance levels** (₹2,534 and ₹2,754).
Keep an eye on **volume** to confirm any breakout, and be cautious around the major resistance levels, as a rejection could trigger a **pullback**.
This suggests that the stock is at a **crucial point** where either a breakout or breakdown could occur, and the next move will largely depend on market forces around these critical price levels.
Use of Various Technical indicators. (Educational Post)Nifty again after making a new high ended in negative today. Main reason for nifty ending in negative can be attributed to channel top resistance. RSI (Relative strength Index) reached over heated zone and peaked above 80 showing the market was overheated, this was the second reason of Nifty ended in red of Friday after a fantastic weak. RSI of monthly and weekly and daily candles also shows that Nifty is in the overbought zone. This can continue for a while or Nifty can dive next week or in the coming time searching for it's supports for the purpose of correction or consolidation. On hourly chart as seen above RSI Peak is near 81 with supports near 57 and 47 range. Currently the RSI is at 64.67.
Bollinger Band is also suggesting temporary market peak near 26336 and strong support near 26092 and 25866.
MACD is also signaling towards consolidation and correction as the coveted blue line seen in the chart is dipping below red line. Histograms sine wave is going towards negative zone with some strength in it's stride.
50 hours EMA or the mother line is near 25909 and 200 hours EMA or the father line is near 25345.
Parallel channel indicates top near 26336. Mid channel support near 25866 and channel bottom support is near 25595.
Trend line support is near 26148 and trend top seems to be near 26437.
Supports and resistances drawn based on recent peaks and valleys are as under:
Supports at: 26148, 26037, 25866 and 25595.
Resistances at: 26277 (All time high resistance)
In the above chart and data we have used the combination of Supports and Resistances, Trend lines, EMA, MACD, RSI, Parallel Channel, Bollinger Bands. You must have seen that various Technical indicators many a times indicate same or similar levels. Thus instead of trying to master many indicators, if you can focus on a few and master them, you will be more often correct. As Bruce Lee has famously said and I quote him, "I am not afraid of someone who knows 10000 kicks, I am afraid of the one who has practised 1 kick 10,000 times."
It is also said in Sanskrit 'Sarva Deva Namaskaram, Keshavam Prati gacchati'. Pray to any of the divine forces but they ultimately end up at the feet of the supreme God head. Nasiruddin Shah had also said in a movie (Kabhi Haan Kabhi Na) "Idhar se jao, udhar se jao, ultimately sab rasta God ke pass jata hai." Deducing from it many indicators often yield same results. Master 2 or 3 of them and they will make you a great analyst.
Conclusion: Learn, unlearn, relearn and master a few indicators rather than trying to know many indicators. They will help you create generational wealth. To know more about these indicators and how to use them and to understand Techno-Funda investment, read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback or Kindle version.
The information regarding Nifty in this article is for the purpose of education and to show how various indicators often give same or similar result.
To know more about when to book profit? Where to place a stop loss or what is trailing stop loss you are recommended to read my book: The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation which is available on Amazon in paperback or kindle version. You can also comment below or send a message to us.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Micron Technology - The perfect chart!NASDAQ:MU is one of these stocks, which just respects every level, cycle and structure.
If I would give each chart an individual rating, the chart of Micron Technology would be 10 out of 10. Micron Technology is actually respecting every structure level and providing textbook trading opportunities. If we get a retest of the previous all time high, which is now turned support and perfectly lining up with the support of the rising channel, I will certainly look for longs.
Levels to watch: $90
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
TSLA: Insanely Bullish - Next Key Points to Watch.In our last TSLA analysis we warned about resistance at $233 and that a breakout would take us to the next target at $245 to close the gap. Now, two weeks later, our target has not only been reached, but broken.
So I'll update you on the next key points to keep an eye on. Our last public TSLA study was done two weeks ago here on TradingView, and the link to it is below this post.
Daily Chart (Left):
Resistance at $265.13: The price is climbing toward the resistance at $265.13, which is a significant level as it marks the high from July. The price recently broke above $245.63, indicating strong upward momentum and clearing a key resistance level. Now, this previously broken resistance could act as a support.
Support at $233.09: The $233.09 level has held as a key support after the breakout in Sep 19, and the price has trended higher since bouncing off this level.
Trendline Support: The ascending purple trendline provides dynamic support, and the price has consistently respected it during this upward move. A break below this line could signal a potential change in trend, but for now, the trend is bullish.
Weekly Chart (Right):
Bullish Continuation: On the weekly chart, the price continues to show a strong bullish trend as it climbs higher after bouncing off key support at around $180. The recent price action suggests the potential for testing the $265.13 resistance.
Momentum: The 21-week EMA (blue line) continues to provide support, reinforcing the uptrend. This moving average has been well respected in the past, and the price staying above it is a positive sign for bulls.
Conclusion:
Tesla’s price action looks strong as it approaches a critical resistance at $265.13. If the price breaks and holds above this level, it could open the door for further gains. However, traders should monitor the $245.63 level, as it now acts as a support zone, while the purple trendline continues to offer a guide for the uptrend.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Bitcoin - This Is The Bullish Breakout!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) still has a high chance of a breakout:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Bitcoin is clearly following the behaviour of the previous cycles and there is actually no reason to be bearish at the moment. The current consolidation is rather a sign of strength and a bullish breakout is definitely more likely than a bearish rejection. Just closely monitor price action.
Levels to watch: $65.000, $32.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
SMCI - Can Super Micro Computer regain trust of investors?Super Micro Computer received non compliance note from Nasdaq for failing to timely file its annual report for the period ending June 30 by the Aug. 29 deadline.
The company said it had 60 days to file the report or submit a plan to regain compliance.
After Hindenburg short report and notice from Nasdaq, much negativity already priced in. If they can file their report for ending June 30, rebound started from just below 400 , might reach 530-usd (61.8%). In the end, revenue growth for fiscal year is expected at 80%.
SWING IDEA - LTIMStock seems to have following the Trendline as given. There has been 4 touches so far on this trendline, indicating a strong Support formation.
If the stock continues to obey the trendline, it could revisit its Swing High again.
MACD Crossover also indicates a good bullish momentum.
While there us a Support formed at 4748 level, even our Trendline intersects at the same region in the coming weeks. So if you want a better entry, you can wait for a retest at the Trendline again and then take an entry based on your Risk Management.
SWING IDEA - SUTLEJTEXNSE:SUTLEJTEX Stock has completed its Lower Low Formation and the new Higher High Higher Low is in play currently.
MACD is also about to make a crossover, which could indicate a good momentum upward in the coming days/weeks.
In addition, the stock has seems to be following the Trendline as marked. This could also start acting as Key Support in the coming weeks.
If everything goes as per plan, we can see the stock crossing the next 2 S/R zones as mentioned in chart.
Brent oil trend moving down or up?Amid supply concerns in the markets, oil prices, which had dropped to the $69.30 level, saw a notable rebound. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.9 million barrel increase in weekly crude oil inventories, while a slight decrease is expected in the official crude oil inventories to be announced in the U.S. today. In the U.S., strong expectations remain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. Therefore, despite the positive risk appetite, Brent oil prices have continued to trade with a bearish trend below the $73.00 level.
Technically, if the 72.35 support level is broken, further declines toward 71.50 and 69.30 are possible. On the upside, if the 73.0 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 74.30 and 75.50 resistance levels.
“Gold prices have been on a strong upward trajectory”In the U.S., the New York Fed Empire State manufacturing index for September rose from -4.7 to 11.5, indicating that the manufacturing sector has returned to growth territory. This data marked the highest level since April 2022. Despite this strong economic signal, the recovery in U.S. dollar assets remained limited. As a result, gold prices saw an upward movement, reaching the $2,585 level.
From a technical perspective, if prices remain consistently above the 2585 level, an increase to 2600 and then to 2650 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 2570 support level, a pullback could extend to 2535 and then to 2482.
AUDUSD - Technical Analysis [Long Setup]🔹 AUDUSD Analysis on 1HR chart
- The current Trend is BULLISH
- there is no divergences
- Symmetrical triangle is form
🔹 Trade Plan
- Entry Level = 0.67295
- Stop Loss = 0.67058
- TP1 = 0.67546
- TP2 = 0.67791
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
- Second TP is 1:2
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea! ✌🏼
gold 2590 vs 50bps cutgold price were range bound in $60 price area but suddenly it breakout on wsj and ft news article on 50bps first cut size possibility.
after years of ZIRP and QE big size cut can spark second inflation wave risk
since usa economy has not reached into deflation like china
this year alone fed has ignored second inflation wave risk two times
first in march by saying January effect and inflation bump and second times in Jackson hole speech
if fed start cutting rate while ignoring second inflation wave risk is the reason gold breakout the range and trading near $2590
on this h4 time frame - there are two support
yellow line dynamic support
$2530 static horizontal support
if final message of speech stay dovish than gold will stay above $2590
if hawkish then price will retrace back to $2530
Trend lines - how to build them and how to use them?Before we dive into the world of trend lines, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the support and resistance zone
Here we go:
Trend lines are one of the most universal tools for trading in any market, used in intraday, swing and position trading strategies. Properly drawn on charts, they help to predict the direction of price movement and identify trend reversals.
In addition, trend lines help you to accurately determine the optimal entry and exit points, as well as set a stop loss.
It is recommended not to rely on trend lines alone, but to integrate them with other methods of technical analysis, expanding your trading arsenal.
Often many traders draw too many lines, it is uninformative and useless
How to place trend lines on a chart?
An uptrend is a combination of at least two pullbacks
Similar in a downtrend:
Instructions for markings:
Find at least two points on the chart
Connect them with a line
But, let's remember the Axiom:
1. Randomness
2. Coincidence.
3. Regularity
Until a trendline is pushed back a third time - it is considered unconfirmed...
Once the third bounce has occurred, the line can be considered valid, but does not guarantee that it will necessarily bounce the fourth time!
Like all patterns in the market, trend patterns can be drawn on any timeframe, also - they are more effective on older ones (as well as all others)
How to use trend lines in your trading?
Frequent trades from a trend line are rebound or breakout trades
Example:
Trendline confirmed (bounced three times) - on the fourth approach we can pay attention - what happens next? Price will either bounce from our trendline again or there will be a breakout
Next example:
How can we determine whether there will be a breakout or a bounce? As I said before, you need to take into account the context: indicators, price action, nearby levels and so on (it all depends on your psychology)
How do trend lines fit together?
Support and resistance levels are areas on a chart that indicate potential pressure (on a side)
The same principle applies to trend lines. The only difference is that trend lines are sloped rather than horizontal.
How to properly label/draw trend lines?
Which trend lines are important and which ones should be ignored?
Focus only on the major pivot points
Connect at least two major pivot points.
Adjust the slope of the line to get the most amount of price touching the line, whether it is the shadows of candles or their bodies.
Important clarification - trend lines represent a support zone, not specific levels.
How can you use trend lines?
The trend is our friend. Where the trend goes, so goes we. Trading against the trend is foolish. If you do decide to do it, it must be justified!
Trend lines are the direction of the current market.
Also the trend line itself can be divided into two positions:
If the trend becomes flatter, it means that the market is moving into a state of consolidation
If the trend is becoming steeper, it means that the trend is getting stronger (or perhaps it is reaching its climax and is approaching its final stage).
Trend Lines Entry Point:
Like all other patterns in technical analysis or price action - trend lines can help you find a more favorable entry point in terms of risk-to-reward ratio
How to use a trend line to identify a market reversal?
Chances are you have encountered this before. There is a trend line breakout, you are already expecting a trend reversal, but the market continues its original movement
Like all indicators/patterns - not a panacea. Each strategy has its own risks, just when we add other osnovnopologologayuschih signs to one strategy, the chance of risking a loss - decreases!
Technique for determining a trend reversal:
Wait for a trend breakout
Wait for a lower low/maximum to form.
If the price breaks the previous minimum/maximum, most likely the trend will go in the direction of the breakdown...
“Nasdaq Continues Its Uptrend”Expectations that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week are being maintained. This situation is perceived positively for the indices. By the end of the year, a total rate cut of 100 basis points is almost certain. The CPI and PPI data suggest that the Fed might not need to cut rates as aggressively as the market had anticipated.
Technically, if the resistance level at 19,500 is permanently surpassed, the rise could gain momentum towards the 19,700 and then 19,950 resistance levels. On the downside, if the index falls below the 19,100 level, a pullback towards the support levels at 18,800 and then 18,450 might be seen.
“The gold price is going up”In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a slight slowdown in August. Weekly unemployment benefit claims rose by 2,000, reaching 230,000. Following this data release, the decline in the dollar deepened. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 3.62%. As a result, gold prices tested the 2570 resistance level.
From a technical perspective, if prices remain consistently above the 2570 resistance level, an increase to 2600 and then to 2650 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 2570 support level, a pullback could extend to 2535 and then to 2482.
"DAX Index Rises Ahead of ECB Meeting"In the U.S., the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in August, while the annual rise was 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. Following the drop in inflation, the likelihood of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut next week has risen to 85%. After this data release, market risk appetite increased, leading to intensified buying activity in the DAX index.
Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
Technically, on the upside if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first toward the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900. if the 18,500 level is broken to the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,285 support and then to 18.075.
Silver is Rising!With the weakening of the U.S. labor market, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed remain intact. In this context, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have turned downward. The dollar's depreciation in yesterday's session led to a recovery in commodities, supporting a rebound in silver prices from the 27.75 level. The inflation data to be released today will provide further clues regarding the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
From a technical perspective, if prices hold above the 28.90 resistance level, a rise to 30.0 and then to 30.80 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 27.75 support level, it could decline to 26.75 and then to 25.70.