Nvidia - The tide is (finally) turning!NASDAQ:NVDA is about to create a bearish reversal which will lead to a -60% correction!
Charts just don't lie at all - instead fundamentals are always an illusion. Nvidia was retesting a major resistance trendline and is starting a significant bearish reversal. Nothing changed fundamentally but Nvidia is already down -25% over the past couple of days. This is just the beginning of another potential bear market, like we saw it back in 2018 and 2021...
Levels to watch: $55
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Trendlineanalysis
SMCI: The Next Major Inflection Point! (D&W charts)On the daily chart, the stock experienced a notable downward breakout, moving sharply below a confluence of trendlines that had previously served as support. This breakout is significant as it suggests a strong bearish momentum, possibly indicating a shift in investor sentiment. The price is below the 21-day EMA, and there is no bottom signal on it yet.
In our previous public SMCI analysis, I warned you about this trend line, as a downwards breakout would frustrate any possibility of a bullish thesis, mid-term speaking. The link to our previous study, here on TradingView, is below this post.
Transitioning to the weekly chart provides a broader perspective, showing the stock's performance over a longer timeframe. Here, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands out as the next significant support level following the recent declines. This specific Fibonacci level is often watched by traders for potential reversal zones and could act as a strong area of interest for buying activities if prices were to reach this point.
The weekly chart also underscores a general downtrend after failing to maintain higher levels, which aligns with the bearish sentiment observed on the daily chart. The consistency of lower highs further emphasizes the pressure on the stock.
Overall, the convergence of these technical factors across different timeframes suggests that SMCI may face continued downward pressure in the near term, with crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level possibly serving as a pivotal area for the stock's next directional moves.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Microsoft - We still have to be patient...NASDAQ:MSFT dropped after reporting earnings and can now create a short term correction!
Simplicity is key, also when it comes to trading the higher timeframes on stocks. All you need are three lines in order to fully understand the trading history and also future of Microsoft. If we get a retest of the triangle breakout level, which is perfectly lining up with the rising trendline, a bullish continuation will be quite expected. Just wait for confirmation first though!
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
USOIL ( BREAKOUT DEMAND ZONE ) (4H)USOIL
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout demand zone .
TURNING LEVEL : the price of turning level around 76.96 , until the price trading below this level reach a support level (1) , but if the price breaking this level reach resistance level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 80.49 , for reach this resistance the price it will be breaking turning level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 82.83 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : as long the price trading below turning level reach this level around 75.05.
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : this level around 72.46, for reach this level the price will be breaking by open 1h or 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE : the price may be corrective turning level at 76.96 , before drooping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 80.49 , 82.83 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 75.05 ,72.46 .
Apple - Back to no.1 in the world!NASDAQ:AAPL is back to being no.1 in the world after rallying 11% in two days.
After moving higher +25% over the past two months, Apple is now back to being the most valuable company in the world with a market cap of 3.4 trillion dollars. This means that Apple is now back to leading the indices but Apple is also retesting resistance. A pullback is definitely likely considering that trees do not grow to the sky, but the overall trend is simply clearly bullish!
Levels to watch: $170, $215
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
240729 Weekly OutlookThe following week have major data release including,
240730 Tue CB Consumer Confidence ****
240731 Wed Fed Interest Rate Decision *****
240801 Thu Initial Jobless Claims ****
240801 Fri Nonfarm Payrolls *****
Unemployment Rate *****
Consumer Confidence is the major leading indicator alongside Michigan Consumer index. Investors should follow the rise of two indexes to lead increase in economic data like inflation, GDP, labor market conditions, as well as economic conditions.
Fed rate is expected to remain unchanged, while market discounting the first cut in the cycle to come in September.
Labor market show resilience all the way that give space to maintain higher rates in this cycle for longer. Even the first rate cute is forecasted for September, I would still expect the higher rates to stay here for longer period due to resilient labor market, as shown by labor market indicators.
There are no signs for S&P to weaken this time, rather shuttle up and down at high levels. Note that last adjustment in S&P followed the deviation of 12% from major trend line 200SMA. Attentive investors could observe it previously.
When the market finally digest selling orders, S&P should resume the rising trend.
Micron Technology - Patience and price action!NASDAQ:MU is literally creating so clear and repetitive market structure, this is textbook.
Bullish break and retest, cycle and correction. Micron Technology has been repeating this price action for over a decade and is about to enter another correction phase. If you don't want to trade this anticipated correction, you can instead wait for another retest of previous resistance, bullish confirmation and a rejection. Following the cycles, a bullish move there is quite likely.
Levels to watch: $140, $95
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its correction against the US Dollar following the release of weaker-than-expected UK Retail Sales data for June, showing a monthly contraction of 1.2% against the expected 0.4% decline and the previous month's growth of 2.9%.
🔍 Key Highlights:
📉 Retail Sales Data: A significant indicator of consumer spending, the sharp decline suggests households are struggling with higher interest rates from the Bank of England (BoE).
💼 Economic Conditions: The rise in claimant count claims may indicate worsening economic conditions, favoring inflation doves on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee.
💸 Inflation and Interest Rates: Annual inflation in the UK remained stable in June compared to May. However, the BoE points to persistently high service inflation at 5.7% and strong wage growth as barriers to cutting interest rates.
📉 BoE Rate Cuts: The probability of a rate cut by the BoE next month has declined, despite positive sentiment towards the new British government.
📊 Technical Analysis:
In this video, I illustrate the technical aspects to watch out for to navigate the current market dynamics effectively. I also discuss key levels and potential scenarios for the GBPUSD in the coming days.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound maintain buying pressure above $1.29000? Watch this video for key trades this week. Join the discussion for updates on GBP/USD trading. Stay tuned for more content. Happy trading!
#GBPUSD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #UKEconomy #BankofEngland #Inflation #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategies
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
400 Pips in a Week! Discover the Secret Behind Trading Strategy!Technical Breakdown
Ascending Channel Formation:
The price has been moving within an ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend. The upper and lower boundaries of the channel have provided resistance and support, respectively.
Support/Resistance Level:
A key horizontal level around 2,430 has acted as both support and resistance. This level was tested multiple times, showing its significance in the price action.
Bear Flags:
Two bear flags are identified, one on the 15-minute chart and another on the 30-minute chart. Bear flags typically indicate continuation patterns in a downtrend, suggesting further bearish movement.
Higher High (HH) and Lower High (LH):
The chart shows a higher high (HH) followed by a lower high (LH), indicating a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
Price Target (TP):
The TP is marked at 2,348, suggesting a potential downside target based on the current technical setup.
S&P500 - The beginning of the bear market?SP:SPX potentially created a top and is starting to head lower for the next months.
We have patterns, cycles and market structure and if everything is lining up nicely, there is a high chance you will be right. The S&P500 is currently retesting a major multi-year resistance trendling, is starting to shift bearish on the smaller timeframes and just rallied +50% without any noticeable correction. In a couple of months, we will trade at lower levels!
Levels to watch: $5.500, $4.500
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
BASF - An Investment pick with more than 70% ROI.The stock has been in an up trend.
It has broken its all time high in 2021 and in good consolidation for 2 years and broken out of consolidation now.
It has broken out of a bullish flag and pole pattern / falling channel pattern in a 3 M timeframe.
One may also consider this for a swing opportunity , RSI intact in all time frames.
Weekly price action shows, that the stock has broken out of falling channel, retested and reversed Consolidated for 7 weeks. Weekly RSI took support at 60 and bounced. Looks ready for a swing. SL - Previous week low at 3155. Target 1 - all time high, 3880.
GOLD ( BREAKOUT CHANNEL ) (4H)XAUUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , after breakout channel .
TURNING LEVEL (1) : the price of this level at 2,391$, so if the price breaking this level reach a resistance level (1) .
TURNING LEVEL (2) : yesterday this level worked a support level , as mentioned breakout 2,391$ reach this level ,the price of this level at 2,365$ , so if the price breaking this level reach a support level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 2,420$ , for reach this resistance level the price need breaking a turning level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 2,440$ , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : this level around 2,340$, for reach this support level the price need breaking a turning level (2) .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 2,320$ , for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE LEVEL : currently price 2,374$ , have two scenario , first corrective 2,391 before dropping to touch a 2,365$ , then 2,340$ , second corrective 2,365$ to reach a 2,391$ , then breaking this level reach a resistance level (1).
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 2,420$ , 2,440$ ,
SUPPORT LEVEL : 2,340$ , 2,320$ .
Tesla - Fakeout leading to a -50% drop?NASDAQ:TSLA is currently trading at a key inflection level, forming a trend for the next years.
Within a couple of hours, an entire stock can reverse and fundamentally change its trend. Tesla is still retesting a multi-year resistance trendline and is down about -8% today. If this selloff continues and Tesla rejects the resistance trendline with a massive bearish wick, then we will most likely see a correction back to the lower support of the descending triangle pattern.
Levels to watch: $240, $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
XAUUSD Poised for a Massive Breakout: Are You Ready?Chart 1: 4-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear upward trend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
A wedge pattern is visible with converging trend lines indicating a potential breakout scenario.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Major Resistance: The upper trendline around 2480.
Recent Price Action:
The price has recently tested the lower trendline support and is currently retracing upwards.
A lower high (LH) has formed around 2480, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: If the price breaks above the 2412 resistance, it may retest the upper trendline around 2480.
Bearish: A break below the 4hr LQZ at 2348.248 could signal further downside towards the daily LQZ at 2267.320.
Chart 2: 1-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
A shorter-term view confirming the upward trend with higher highs and higher lows.
The formation of a wedge pattern indicates consolidation within a narrowing price range.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240, coinciding with the previous chart.
Recent Price Action:
Price recently bounced off the 4hr LQZ support level and is now hovering near the 2412 resistance.
The lower high (LH) indicates sellers are stepping in around the 2412 level.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: Breaking and closing above 2412 could lead to further upside towards 2480.
Bearish: Rejection at 2412 and a break below recent lows could target the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Chart 3: 15-Minute Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
Short-term consolidation observed within a wedge pattern.
Recent price action indicates potential for a breakout or breakdown from this pattern.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Recent Price Action:
Price is consolidating just below the 2412 resistance level, forming a wedge pattern.
The 15-minute timeframe shows the price struggling to break above 2412.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: A breakout above the wedge and 2412 resistance could lead to a quick move towards 2480.
Bearish: A breakdown from the wedge could revisit the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Conclusion
The overall trend across multiple timeframes remains bullish with key resistance at 2412 and significant support at 2348.248. A break above 2412 could signal further upside towards 2480, while a failure to break and sustain above this level may lead to consolidation or a pullback to the 4hr LQZ support. Monitoring price action around these key levels will provide insights into the next directional move.
Gold Price Set to Explode! Here’s What You Need to Watch Today!Hey Traders, welcome back to my channel! 🚀
Today, we're diving deep into the latest XAUUSD analysis, and trust me, you don't want to miss this one. With gold prices poised for a significant move, understanding these key levels could make all the difference in your trading strategy.
Let's get started with the 1-hour chart (shown below). 📊
Chart 1: XAUUSD 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis (July 21, 2024)
Key Observations:
Daily Bull Flag Formation:
The chart highlights a daily bull flag pattern, which indicates a continuation pattern following a strong uptrend. On the daily TF sometimes this can take a bit longer to see due to how big this flag is on the (LTF)
The price has been consolidating within this flag formation.
Reversal Structure (Lower High - LH):
There is a reversal structure where the price made a lower high (LH), suggesting a potential bearish reversal in the short term.
Structure LTF (Lower Time Frame):
The price structure on the lower time frame indicates an area where price could pull back and reject off of this area indicating the continuation of the Overall move.
The second way this could play off of this area is we could get a clear impulsive move above this structure and then a rejection looking for higher moves in the Shorter Time Frame.
15-Minute Time Frame:
The 15-minute time frame shows a detailed view of the consolidation and break down from the flag formation. where you could see how close we are to the LQZ shown on the 1HR
1HR Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
Identified at 2,390.966, this zone may act as a significant support area and also our first Take Profit we gave last week.
4HR Liquidity Zone:
Marked at 2,349.179, another major support area that aligns with the daily LQZ. If price end up breaking the 1HR LQZ impulsively then we could look for this area as Take Profit and then once we get down to this area we could potentially see a pullback.
Daily LQZ:
The daily liquidity zone is at 2,286.809, a crucial support level for the longer-term perspective.
Potential Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
The price could bounce off the 1HR LQZ and continue the pullback on shorter time frame to the structure indicated as Lower Time Frame Structure. indicated by the Yellow path.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation
The price may break below the 1HR LQZ and head towards the 4HR and daily LQZs. indicated by the Green path. In this situation we would need to see a clear break below the 1HR LQZ then start to form some type of bearish pattern to show the continuation that could come.
Scenario 3: Reversal to Upside
After testing the support levels, the price could reverse and start a new uptrend, indicated by the orange path. We would need to see a clear break above the structure indicated by the box. This way we could see that on the Shorter Time frame of things we could get a deeper pull back.
Recommendations:
Watch for Reactions at Support Levels:
Monitor the price action around the 1HR, 4HR, and daily LQZs for potential entry points.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for breakouts above the recent highs and breakdowns below the key support levels.
Manage Risk:
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-losses below support levels and taking profits at resistance levels.
Gold’s Next Big Move: Critical Levels You Can’t Afford to Miss!Hey Traders, welcome back to my channel! 🚀
Today, we're diving deep into the latest XAUUSD analysis, and trust me, you don't want to miss this one. With gold prices poised for a significant move, understanding these key levels could make all the difference in your trading strategy.
Let's get started with the 1-hour chart (shown below). 📊
Chart 1: XAUUSD 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis (July 21, 2024)
Key Observations:
Daily Bull Flag Formation:
The chart highlights a daily bull flag pattern, which indicates a continuation pattern following a strong uptrend. On the daily TF sometimes this can take a bit longer to see due to how big this flag is on the (LTF)
The price has been consolidating within this flag formation.
Reversal Structure (Lower High - LH):
There is a reversal structure where the price made a lower high (LH), suggesting a potential bearish reversal in the short term.
Structure LTF (Lower Time Frame):
The price structure on the lower time frame indicates an area where price could pull back and reject off of this area indicating the continuation of the Overall move.
The second way this could play off of this area is we could get a clear impulsive move above this structure and then a rejection looking for higher moves in the Shorter Time Frame.
15-Minute Time Frame:
The 15-minute time frame shows a detailed view of the consolidation and break down from the flag formation. where you could see how close we are to the LQZ shown on the 1HR
1HR Liquidity Zone (LQZ):
Identified at 2,390.966, this zone may act as a significant support area and also our first Take Profit we gave last week.
4HR Liquidity Zone:
Marked at 2,349.179, another major support area that aligns with the daily LQZ. If price end up breaking the 1HR LQZ impulsively then we could look for this area as Take Profit and then once we get down to this area we could potentially see a pullback.
Daily LQZ:
The daily liquidity zone is at 2,286.809, a crucial support level for the longer-term perspective.
Recommendations:
Watch for Reactions at Support Levels:
Monitor the price action around the 1HR, 4HR, and daily LQZs for potential entry points.
Set Alerts:
Set alerts for breakouts above the recent highs and breakdowns below the key support levels.
Manage Risk:
Ensure proper risk management by setting stop-losses below support levels and taking profits at resistance levels.
Brace Yourself: Is Gold's Bearish Trend to Continue Next Week!?Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
$2,480: Recent high, acting as a strong resistance level.
$2,449.525: Previous high, another significant resistance level.
Support Levels:
$2,391.612 (4HR LQZ / TP 1): First significant support level and target point.
$2,348.723 (Daily LQZ / TP 2): Second support level and target point.
$2,289.000 (TP 3): Third support level and long-term target.
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear descending movement from the recent highs, indicating a bearish trend.
The price has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
Indicators and Patterns:
Rising Wedge: The price action formed a rising wedge, and the breakdown confirms the bearish trend.
Price Action: The current price movement shows lower highs and lower lows, which aligns with the bearish trend.
Volume: Consider monitoring the volume for further confirmation of the trend. High volume on down moves indicates stronger bearish sentiment.
Strategy:
Short Positions: Traders might look for shorting opportunities at resistance levels or breakdown retests.
Target Points: The support levels ($2,391.612, $2,348.723, and $2,289.000) serve as potential target points for short positions.
Stop Loss: Place stop-loss orders above the recent highs to manage risk.
Conclusion:
The technical breakdown of XAUUSD indicates a bearish trend continuation. With the price breaking down from a rising wedge and confirming lower highs and lower lows, traders should consider short positions, targeting the support levels mentioned. Keep an eye on the volume and price action for further confirmation and manage risk with appropriate stop-loss levels.
Bitcoin - Half way to the $200.000 target!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is consecutively retesting the previous all time high and breaking out soon.
You all know my life motto: Keep your long term vision. This is especially true when it comes to trading the major swings on Bitcoin. These very volatile short term moves will always give you a false perception of the underlying trend. And the underlying trend on Bitcoin is bullish, despite the recent back and forth at the previous all time high. I do expect a major bullish breakout soon.
Levels to watch: $67.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Nvidia - Still waiting for a correction!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended but still not bearish at all on the smaller timeframes.
If you watched my previous analysis on Nvidia, you know that I have been bearish for quite some time and totally wrong so far. But there was never ever any single sign of weakness so I did not take any trade betting on price to go down. Nvidia is still retesting resistance, it is still somewhat overextended and I still do expect a visible rejection away towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading