Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
Trendlinebounce
$SPX A bullish or bearish day? SP:SPX Based on the technical factors that emerge, we are right on the first finger to pivot out of the bear trend. We are officially meandering the bullish pull away with strong momentum right? But we've already have that on our side. Does that mean it will diminish? Or will it continue the alarmingly strong moment.
In this video, I will stay away from the SP:SPX , because the momentum will exhaust soon.
Art of Trading - Trendlines 101First of all, I would like express my gratitude to all the followers and the support I have recently received from the community!
This one is for everyone who has recently started with TradingView or are existing users but are very new to the art of trading.
Today we'll be looking at "Trendlines" with a certain example that might leverage the importance of these lines.
Before we get started, I want to mention a couple of qualities that are very essential for trading,
-Patience
-Resilience
lack thereof which, the markets would definitely and repeatedly teach you!
So, what is a trendline? Any two closes connected by a straight line can be called a trendline. Usually used in higher TF's (timeframes)but can also be used on smaller TFs.
What is it's purpose? Once a certain trend has been established in a given TF and such line has been drawn, these can be used to identify supports or resistance where a probable bounce and continuation of the trend could occur.
If the market is trending upwards, a line connecting the lows of two candles, usually the first breakout candle and the lowest pullback candle, can be established as a support trendline (see illustration).
The same applies for a market that is trending downwards which will give us a resistance trendline.
Trendlines in my opinion will always be respected by a market, and also act as, for the lack of a better word, magnets, pulling the asset towards it. So when an asset is hovering around a support trendline, chances are that the asset is pulled towards it. If the trend is strong enough the asset bounces, it not it breaks through. Once broken through support becomes resistance and vice versa.
There will be of course instances when the asset breaks through a trendline but still closes above the trendline, faking participants out of the market, usually referred to as shaking out weak hands. But that's a topic for a different time.
Now that you are aware what Trendlines are, what can you infer from the illustration above? Leave a comment!
If you like this sort of posts, hit boost, so I can prepare more such content. I'm also only human, and still learning, and if you think the information I provide is erroneous, please let me so I can correct and learn together with you! Learning never stops! See you in the next one, peace!
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XAUUSD⚡️FOMC Minutes eyed⚡️❤️MY FOREX TEAM❤️
INFORMATION
Gold price (XAU/USD) holds above $2,000 during the early Asian session on Monday. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected and prompted financial markets to dial back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in June. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,014, gaining 0.12% on the day.
💲BUY GOLD 1980-1985 💲
SL @ 1977
TP 1 @ 1990
TP 2 @ 1998
TP 3 @ 2009
💲SELL GOLD 2027-2030 💲
SL @ 2035
TP 1 @ 2020
TP 2 @ 2010
TP 3 @ 2000
Everyone success..👍👍👍
❤️MY FOREX TEAM - Technical Analysis
Technical indicators SMA | EMA | MACD | SAR | VWAP | RSI | MARKET TREND | NEWS
❤️NOTE
XAU/USD holds above $2,000, PBOC rate decision, FOMC Minutes eyed
❤️MONEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
⚡️ Only Trade With Risk Capital
⚡️ Cut Losses Short, Let Profits Run On
⚡️ Avoid Using Too Much Leverage
⚡️ Avoid Taking Too Much Heat
⚡️ Do Not Give in to Greed
⚡️ Take profit equal to 4-6% of your capital
⚡️ Stop lose equal to 2-3% of your capital
Bottom fishing in Aavas finance!Aavas finance is a Nifty500 stock which has been taking a support on trendline.
Recently the stock has shown good volume accumulation near the trendline and jumped from the same.
The stock looks good technically as a buy on dip candidate uptil 1450 with a SL of below 1355 DCB.
The targets are 1750,2000++.
Idea is shared for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation.
#AUDJPY potential turnaroundHello dear traders and friends. Let's take a look at the AUDJPY chart and explore the potential bullish move that could happen from around here.
As observed in the 4-hour timeframe chart, the overall direction of the price is bullish , characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The price respects a bullish trendline acting as support, with clear bullish bounces occurring each time the price reaches or gets close to this line.
Simultaneously, in the 1-hour timeframe chart, the price is forming a double bottom , corresponding with a bullish divergence between price and the momentum (Stoch) oscillator. The crucial aspect of these two confluences is that they are occurring in an important supportive area, namely the static support area and the bullish trendline, which adds to the possibility of the divergence working out.
From a candlestick perspective, we also observe the formation of a bullish engulfing candle in the 1-hour timeframe, which can be interpreted as a morning star if combined with two previous candles.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
TMHC A Steady Gainer - worth the time?Stock has been on a steady rise since oct 22. Out of the 7 earnings it only missed one.
This leads me to believe were looking at a run up before their earnings call on July 23rd ( Right before market open ) & If it falls it continuosly bounces off the 100 EMA.
It already showed it has potential to touch 60 on jun 23rd.. Retest prior to earnings?
To be continued..
KAJARIACER - Bullish Consolidation BreakoutNSE: KAJARIACER is closing with a bullish consolidation breakout candle supported with volumes.
Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days.
The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand.
One can look for a 8% to 12% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade.
The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low.
#NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
Navigating the Golden Realm❣️"Unveiling Secrets of the Gold Market for Traders"
Welcome to the captivating world of the gold market, where you as (new) trader embark on a metaphorical journey filled with price movements , trends , and profitable opportunities .
In this comprehensive guide , i will delve into the intricacies of trading gold, empowered with knowledge that will enhance trading strategies. From deciphering patterns to understanding correlations , i will unlock the secrets of the golden realm, equiped with the confidence to make informed decisions.
So fasten your seatbelts and get ready to navigate through the twists and turns of this enchanting market.
Range Trading - The Breakfast Feast
Picture yourself at a lavish breakfast buffet, where a wide array of options tempts your taste buds.
Similarly, range trading in the gold market offers a delectable spread of trading opportunities. By identifying key support and resistance levels , you can effectively navigate within a defined price range. Just as you would choose from a buffet, traders can enter buy positions near support and sell positions near resistance.
Deciphering Trends - The Path to Success
In the golden realm, trends serve as beacons of guidance for traders. Analyzing price movements over time helps uncover valuable insights into the direction of the market. By identifying uptrends, downtrends, or sideways trends , strategies can be aligned accordingly. Utilizing tools like moving averages and trend lines, may create a clearer picture of the market's path, allowing you to ride the waves of success.
Breakouts - Seizing the Golden Moments
Just as a phoenix rises from the ashes, breakouts in the gold market signify the birth of new opportunities. Breakouts occur when the price breaches a significant resistance or support level, often indicating a shift in market sentiment. Trades will be positioned to take advantage of these golden moments by entering in the direction of the breakout. However, it is crucial to denote confluences and employ proper risk management techniques or wait for confirmation before diving into the fray.
Correlations - Unveiling Hidden Connections
The gold market is not an isolated realm; it is intricately connected to other financial markets. Understanding correlations between gold and other assets can provide valuable insights. For instance, a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar may indicate that a weaker dollar could lead to increased gold prices. By monitoring these relationships and recognizing their impact, you can make more informed decisions and maximize profit potential.
Retesting - A Second Chance
In the golden realm, opportunities often come knocking twice. Retesting occurs when a price level that was previously broken acts as a new support or resistance. Traders can capitalize on retests by entering positions in the direction of the original breakout. This phenomenon can provide a second chance to those who missed the initial move or wish to reinforce their existing positions. By identifying and evaluating retesting scenarios, you will enhance your trading strategy and seize these hidden but well-known opportunities.
☆
As we conclude this journey through the golden realm, you could now posses a deeper understanding of the gold market's intricacies. By embracing range trading , deciphering trends , seizing breakout moments , unraveling correlations , and recognizing retesting opportunities , you can navigate this enchanting market with confidence. Armed with technical indicators, pattern analysis, and an awareness of session transitions, you will unlock the potential for profitable opportunities.
So, fellow aspiring traders, step into the foreign exchange golden realm armed with knowledge and embark on your path to success, b e ready to make informed decisions and claim your share of the golden treasures.
HappyTrading 🤠 J
EURUSD RSI Divergence - Bounce incoming?Simple idea here,
A) Touched the downward trendline, even if this turns out to be a downward channel this is the bottom of the range.
B) Deeply oversold on RSI ( <20 on both 1H and 2H ),
C) RSI divergence on the 1H
Just targetting a short term pullback here, short term Target 1.083 but potential for a runner up to the 1.09s.
Eurnzd BREAKOUT!!!! who else is SEEING this!!!!!!????💥💥A CONFLUENCE of TRENDLINE, PULLBACK zone and FIBONACCI retracement zone everything's stacked for a potential strong up move.
lets see whats gonna happen guys......
Like and subscribe or you will miss analysis and calls like this in future......
LIKE or i'll take your stoploss!!!!!!!! 😆
Am Back!!!!!After a long while guys....am back.
Without bothering u on all the details....let's get into today's breakfast(London time)...
If u saw the bullish setup before me....
Indicate below.....u must be really smart!!
If u didn't....dosent matter...(we are eating today, probably...)
Okay....EURAUD has been in a strong uptrend on the Daily and even 4H.....
A retracement to the previous pullback level just happened.(fib 50&60)
Plus.....its in an Ending Diagonal on the 4H..
The probability for a bullish recovery is high
An going in on the LTF with my killer techniques..... Feel free to join me with any entry strategy u have....
Like
......and subscribe......or I'll take ur stop loss😆
BTCUSDT - Classic Bump and Run MethodHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
Today's analysis on Bitcoin is purely trend-based and focused on the MACRO trend. (If you're looking for a technical indicator analysis, take a look at this one : )
If you're looking for a comprehensive update on the Bump and Run Method, you can find it here:
All in all, if timelines are considered BTC is due for a Bullish cycle. This doesn't mean we can't go sideways for a while, but it seems highly likely that the accumulation phase is now over. Another reason why I am bullish on Bitcoin is due to the uncertainty regarding banks at the moment. Check out the two posts linked to related ideas below, they cover all of that information.
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CryptoCheck
EURCHF Downtrend ContinuationEURCHF experienced bullish pressure to approach the trendline resistance at 0.99600 but could not break above it.
The bearish bounce suggests the downtrend could resume with an initial target at 0.99000 support.
A break below 0.9900 will open the way to 0.98230.
Alternatively, a break above the resistance will extend the bullish retracement towards 1.00202.
Ocean/USDT nice retest of trendlineOcean is showing a strong rising trendline from the start of january. Ocean broke the trenline and now retests the trendline for a SR Flip.
I am long on the retest of this trendline with the targets as published in the chart