$BTC Trend Broken - $102k NextThe trend has broken.
₿itcoin respects thy squigglets 🤓
$102k CRYPTOCAP:BTC here we come 🥸
If that doesn't hold, the 200DMA prophecy ~$95k will be fulfilled 🥲
Trend Line Break
GOLD → False breakdown and support from the falling DXYFX:XAUUSD , as part of a correction, confirms the upward trend line and returns to the consolidation (range), making a false breakdown of support amid the dollar's correction...
The US dollar remains stable thanks to the Fed's hawkish minutes and the court's decision to block Trump's tariffs. Investors are waiting for Friday's inflation data (PCE), which could weaken the dollar and give gold a chance to rebound. Additional influence will come from US GDP data, jobless claims, and geopolitical news.
On D1, gold is rebounding from strong support and heading towards resistance at the rising trend line. If economic risks remain high, gold could continue its rally despite conflicting bearish patterns...
Resistance levels: 3300, 3310, 3325
Support levels: 3290, 3285, 3265
Gold is forming a false breakdown of support at 3265 as part of a correction and confirming the lower boundary of the upward channel. Consolidation above 3280 will confirm that bulls are holding the market amid high economic risks. Gold may test 3300-3310 and form a correction before continuing its growth towards 3325.
Best regards, R. Linda!
DOGEUSDT → Long squeeze before growth?BINANCE:DOGEUSDT.P is consolidating. A range with clear boundaries has formed. Before a possible breakout, a liquidation (false breakdown) may form
On D1, the structure is quite positive. Earlier, the price tested the downward resistance, but there was no reaction (fall) as such. Instead, the price is consolidating within the range of 0.211 (0.205) - 0.23 - 0.253.
Bitcoin, like the entire crypto market, is consolidating within fairly clear boundaries. Based on the current situation, it would be logical to wait for one part of the market to be liquidated before the price can move in either direction. Based on the bullish market, there may be a retest of support in the form of a false break...
Resistance levels: 0.2308, 0.253
Support levels: 0.213, 0.2116, 0.205
DOGE is consolidating with a focus on the 0.23–0.211 range. Against the backdrop of a bullish trend, a liquidation (long squeeze) relative to the lower boundary of the 0.23–0.205 range is possible before growth continues. A false break of support and liquidity capture would be useful maneuvers before implementation. However, if the market is aggressive enough and resistance at 0.23 is broken with subsequent consolidation above this level, it could trigger premature growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Trendline Breakout - SPARCCurrent Price: ₹169.82
Technical Analysis:
Trendline Breakout Pattern: This is a bullish technical signal. A breakout from a trendline, especially if it was a resistance trendline, suggests that the stock has overcome a significant hurdle and is likely to move higher. For confirmation, it's ideal to see the breakout accompanied by strong trading volume.
Immediate Target: ₹233
Time Frame: 3 to 6 months (This suggests a medium-term horizon for achieving the target).
Fundamental Analysis:
Company Overview: SPARC is a pharmaceutical company engaged in research and development. It's important to note that R&D-focused companies often have different financial profiles compared to established, revenue-generating pharmaceutical companies. They typically have lower or even negative profits in the short term as they invest heavily in developing new drugs and technologies.
Quarterly Results (Q4 FY25 - ended March 31, 2025):
SPARC often reports losses due to its R&D heavy nature. For Q4 FY25, the company reported a consolidated net loss of ₹90.3 crore, higher than the loss of ₹60.8 crore in Q4 FY24.
Revenue from operations also declined to ₹40.5 crore in Q4 FY25 from ₹51.4 crore in Q4 FY24.
Yearly Results (FY25 - ended March 31, 2025):
For the full fiscal year FY25, SPARC reported a consolidated net loss of ₹363.8 crore, significantly higher than the loss of ₹237.3 crore in FY24.
Revenue from operations for FY25 also decreased to ₹182.2 crore from ₹236.8 crore in FY24.
P/E Ratio: Given that SPARC often reports losses, its P/E ratio is typically not applicable (N/A) or negative, as a P/E ratio requires positive earnings. Investors usually evaluate such companies based on factors like pipeline progress, clinical trial results, regulatory approvals, and potential market size of their innovations rather than traditional profitability metrics.
EPS Comparison: As the company is often in a loss-making phase due to R&D expenses, the EPS is typically negative. Comparing negative EPS values can be less insightful than tracking the progress of their drug pipeline.
Corporate Actions:
Dividend: SPARC typically does not pay dividends given its R&D phase and often negative profitability.
Funding/Partnerships: Key corporate actions for SPARC would include fundraising rounds, strategic partnerships for drug development or commercialization, and announcements related to regulatory approvals or clinical trial successes.
Company Order Book:
SPARC, being an R&D company, generally does not have a traditional "order book" like manufacturing or infrastructure companies. Its future revenue visibility depends on successful drug development, licensing agreements, or commercialization of its patented products.
Latest News:
Q4 and FY25 Results: The latest news would likely focus on the company's increased losses and decreased revenue, along with management commentary on the progress of their various drug candidates in clinical trials.
Clinical Trial Updates: Any announcements regarding the phases of clinical trials (Phase I, II, III), interim results, or regulatory submissions for its drug pipeline would be significant news.
Research & Development: Updates on new research areas or technological advancements.
Overall Assessment:
SPARC presents a challenging fundamental picture with consistent losses and declining revenue, typical of an R&D-heavy pharmaceutical firm. Investors in SPARC are essentially betting on the future success of its drug pipeline.
The Trendline Breakout pattern identified in your technical analysis suggests that the stock might be building momentum. If the market is anticipating a positive development (e.g., successful trial results, regulatory approval) that could fundamentally change its profitability, then the technical breakout might be a leading indicator. The immediate target of ₹233 would represent a significant upside.
However, it is crucial to understand that for a company like SPARC, technical breakouts can be highly speculative without a corresponding positive fundamental catalyst related to its drug development pipeline. The stock's movement is heavily dependent on news flow regarding its R&D projects.
Key Factors to Monitor:
Confirmation of Technical Breakout: Ensure the breakout is sustained with strong volume.
R&D Pipeline Progress: This is paramount. Track updates on their drug candidates, clinical trial results, and regulatory milestones.
Cash Burn Rate: Given its losses, monitor the company's cash position and burn rate.
Strategic Partnerships: Any new collaborations could provide funding and validation for its research.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in R&D-focused pharmaceutical companies like SPARC carries inherently high risks due to the uncertainty of drug development and regulatory approvals. Always conduct your own thorough research, understand the company's drug pipeline, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of news. Retest of resistanceFX:XAUUSD remained above the key support level of 3280 and is testing intermediate resistance. Against the backdrop of the dollar's decline, the metal has a chance to continue its growth...
Gold is trading in consolidation ahead of the Fed meeting minutes. Easing trade risks and the dollar's recovery triggered a correction from the recent peak of $3366. Against the backdrop of the dollar's correction, the metal is entering a phase of local rally and testing resistance at 0.5f
The Fed is maintaining a cautious tone, and the market is waiting for signals on interest rates. The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the threat of new sanctions from Trump did not cause significant concern in the markets. Investors are waiting for drivers
Resistance levels: 3322, 3348, 3363
Support levels: 3290, 3282, 3265
A small correction may form from 3322 before growth continues. The market is interested in liquidity in the 3348-3363 zone, and the price is likely to test this zone. However, further developments depend on the fundamental background. Rising economic risks or hints of interest rate cuts could support the price of gold.
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURJPY → False breakout of resistance. Reversal?FX:EURJPY is testing the resistance of the trading range as part of a distribution movement, but the situation ends with a false breakout and price consolidation within the flat.
Against the backdrop of the falling dollar, the Japanese yen is strengthening and thus exerting a corresponding influence on the currency pair. EURJPY is forming a false breakout of resistance within a distribution movement formed after a retest the support of the flat. The price returns to the channel. After a false breakout of resistance and a return of the price below a strong key level, a base is forming in the form of support at 163.2 (trigger).
Resistance levels: 163.4, 163.6
Support levels: 163.2, 162.7
A breakdown of the 163.2 trigger and price consolidation below the key level could intensify the sell-off, triggering a further decline.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GAIL BUY TRADEEntry- 192-192.3
SL- 189-189.2
Target- 196.7, 198, 200
Reason- Breakout of a falling trendline in 1hr timeframe. The stock is also coming out of consolidation zone.
Disclaimer- This is just for educational purpose please.
Jai Shree Ram.
GOLD → Correction before possible growthFX:XAUUSD entered a liquidation phase (rally) within the trading range at the opening of the session. The dollar's rise is to blame. The focus is on supporting consolidation...
Investors remain interested in gold as a safe haven asset amid geopolitical risks and declining demand for US assets.
The key drivers remain news about tax reform in the US, trade negotiations, and upcoming macro data.
Gold is consolidating, but since the opening of the session, the price has been heading towards support. Against the backdrop of an upward trend, a trigger for bearish liquidity is likely to form before growth.
Against the backdrop of the dollar's growth, gold is entering a correction phase. At the moment, all attention is on support and the liquidity zone of 3265. A false breakdown will trigger a price buyback.
Resistance levels: 3322
Support levels: 3282, 3265
Since the price is still within the range and a countertrend correction is forming in the market, in our case, it is worth considering an intraband trading strategy. A false breakdown of support could trigger growth to intermediate resistance or to the upper border of the channel.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BITCOIN → False breakout of 110K. Negative background???BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P hit a new all-time high of almost 112K on the back of improved economic and fundamental data, but the party didn't last long before Trump's next speech...
Yesterday, Trump spoke and announced new tariffs on the EU. The markets reacted quite aggressively to this news. Despite the fact that the market has practically bought back all the losses, the question itself remains open. The introduction of 50% tariffs on Europe will increase the risk background, which could trigger a fall in both the stock market and cryptocurrencies. In this case, money will flow into gold (a safe asset)...
Technically, Bitcoin is forming a false breakout of the global resistance level of 110K (previous ATH). The price is reacting and forming a bearish momentum (coinciding with the change in the fundamental background).
The area between 109.8 and 110.3 is a resistance and liquidity zone relative to the previous ATH. If the bears hold the resistance, Bitcoin may get stuck inside the 110K - 106.8K (105K) range.
Resistance levels: 109.8K, 110.3K, 112K
Support levels: 106.8K, 105K
Accordingly, if the 110K resistance holds amid the correction, consolidation below the resistance will confirm the formation of a false breakout, and in this case, Bitcoin may move to the 110K (112K) - 105K (102K) range. However, situations change daily, and if Bitcoin does break through 110K and manages to consolidate above its previous ATH, this will be a signal for growth...
Best regards, R. Linda!
TRBUSDT → High probability of a false breakoutBINANCE:TRBUSDT.P is testing resistance in the 38,700 range as part of a rally. The current strong movement may end in a false breakout...
TRB is forming a distribution pattern. After exiting consolidation, the price rallied 16%, exhausting its potential for further growth.
A false breakout of resistance could trigger a correction.
Bitcoin looks controversial in the overall situation. After a false breakout of the 110K resistance, the price is consolidating below the level. If the flagship correction begins, it may also trigger a correction in altcoins...
Resistance levels: 38,700
Support levels: 35.98, 33.65
If the price fails to consolidate above the level and continue to rise, this will confirm the absence of bullish potential. A false breakout and price consolidation below 38.700 will trigger a correction to 36 - 33
Best regards, R. Linda!
Trendline Breakout - RAILTELCurrent Price: ₹385
Technical Analysis:
Trendline Pattern Breakout: This is a bullish technical signal. A breakout from a trendline (especially a downtrend line) often indicates a shift in momentum and the potential for an upward move. For confirmation, it's ideal to see the breakout accompanied by strong trading volume.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹450
Target 2: ₹585
Time Frame: 1 Year to 3 Year (This suggests a medium to long-term horizon for achieving these targets, which aligns well with the nature of infrastructure projects RailTel undertakes).
Fundamental Analysis (Based on the images provided for RailTel):
Market Cap: ₹12,361 Cr.
Stock P/E: 39.2
Book Value: ₹62.3
Sales (Revenue from Operations): Consistently growing, from ₹572 Cr in Mar 2016 to ₹3,478 Cr in Mar 2025.
Operating Profit: Steady increase from ₹206 Cr in Mar 2016 to ₹533 Cr in Mar 2025.
Net Profit: Shows consistent growth, from ₹102 Cr in Mar 2016 to ₹300 Cr in Mar 2025.
EPS in Rs.: Increased from ₹3.18 in Mar 2016 to ₹9.34 in Mar 2025.
Compounded Sales Growth: 1 Year: 35%, 3 Years: 32%, 5 Years: 26%, 10 Years: %.
Compounded Profit Growth: 1 Year: 19%, 3 Years: 23%, 5 Years: 19%, 10 Years: 13%.
Return on Equity: Last Year: 16%, 3 Years: 15%, 5 Years: 15%, 10 Years: 13%.
Corporate Actions:
Dividend: The Dividend Payout % has fluctuated but has been consistently paid, with a 11% payout in Mar 2025. (As per previous information, the board recommended a total dividend of ₹2.85 per share for FY25.)
Recent News: Latest news would generally highlight the company's strong Q4 FY25 financial results, substantial order book wins, and its strategic positioning in government-led digital infrastructure and railway modernization projects.
Company Order Book:
While specific order book figures are not in the provided images, public information suggests RailTel consistently secures new contracts from Indian Railways and government bodies, providing strong revenue visibility for coming years.
Overall Assessment:
RailTel presents a robust bullish case, supported by both strong technicals and impressive fundamentals:
Technical Tailwinds: The Trendline Breakout suggests a positive shift in market sentiment.
Strong Growth: The company demonstrates consistent and healthy growth in Sales, Operating Profit, and Net Profit over multiple years. The EPS shows strong year-on-year growth and a significant jump in the latest quarter. The "Profit growth" is 18.9%.
Healthy Ratios: Excellent ROCE (21.8%) and ROE (16.5%).
Financial Strength: Extremely low Debt to Equity (0.02) indicates a very strong and stable balance sheet.
Valuation: While the P/E of 39.2 is a premium, it's slightly below the industry P/E of 41.2, suggesting it's potentially more reasonably valued than some peers given its growth trajectory and strategic role.
The targets of ₹450 / ₹585 within a 1 to 3-year timeframe appear achievable, backed by the technical breakout and the consistent fundamental growth, strategic positioning, and expected future projects in digital infrastructure and railway modernization.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own thorough research, carefully analyze the stock chart, assess your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The stock market carries inherent risks.
GOLD → Consolidation. Retest of support before growthFX:XAUUSD is strengthening due to a complex fundamental backdrop. A false break of support at 3285 allows the price to update its local high to 3365.
Gold fell moderately from a high of $3365 amid weak activity due to holidays in the US, despite the weak dollar. Investors are taking profits ahead of US inflation data.
Pressure is also linked to hopes for a trade agreement between the US and Japan. However, the decline in prices is limited — geopolitical tensions, US budget problems, and instability in the Middle East are keeping demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Support levels: 3321, 3308, 3300
Resistance levels: 3363
Technically, gold is making a false breakout of consolidation resistance and is entering a correction phase, during which the price may test liquidity below 3320-3303 before continuing to rise.
Best regards, R. Linda!
USDCHF → Retest support with the aim of breaking throughFX:USDCHF is also losing ground amid the dollar's decline. The price is testing the support of the range, a break of which could open the way to 0.811
USDCHF is consolidating, but at the same time, a local downward channel is forming. The currency pair is retesting support within the current downward movement. A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming relative to 0.819. The fall of the dollar is having a corresponding effect on the price.
Before continuing its decline, the currency pair may form a retest of 0.5 Fibonacci or close the FVG
Resistance levels: 0.825, 0.8275
Support levels: 0.819, 0.8117
The downward structure will break down when the price leaves the downward channel. However, at the moment, while the price is consolidating at the bottom of the trading range, I expect a breakdown of support in the short term, followed by a continued decline to 0.811 - 0.805
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURUSD Trendline Breakout – Bullish Target Ahead
EURUSD has successfully broken out of a strong descending trendline, which was acting as dynamic resistance for weeks. The breakout is backed by strong bullish candles and clear higher lows forming.
After the breakout, the price also reclaimed a key horizontal support zone around 1.12573, turning it into a solid base for further upside.
🎯 Bullish Target (Expected):
First major bullish target at 1.13864 based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last swing move.
📌 Support: 1.12573
📌 Breakout Confirmation: Valid as long as price holds above the trendline and support.
📈 Outlook:
The momentum looks strong for further bullish continuation. If the price holds above the breakout zone, we expect a move toward 1.13864 in the coming sessions.
GOLD → Consolidation amid a bullish trendFX:XAUUSD is trading in consolidation. As expected, the retest of the 3290 support level will end with a strengthening. The price is heading towards the resistance of the range.
The dollar is falling, which is supporting gold. The local trend is set by the fundamental background. The price of gold is strengthening and heading towards the resistance of the trading range, with the zone of interest being the liquidity located above 3346. The fundamental background is on the buyers' side, but since today is Friday, there is no strong news and the market is unlikely to seek a breakout from consolidation due to the lack of a driver. Thus, we can expect a correction from resistance before growth resumes, which may form next week.
Resistance levels: 3346, 3360
Support levels: 3308, 3290, 3282
Consolidation after the break of the local downtrend amid a falling dollar means that bulls are building up potential before a possible continuation of growth. But at the moment, an intraday trading strategy can be considered.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDUSD → A retest of resistance may end in a false breakout.FX:NZDUSD bounces off the upward support line and forms a distribution towards the liquidity zone located above 0.597...
Strong resistance lies ahead at 0.5969 - 0.5975 (liquidity pool). If the current movement continues (distribution), the market will exhaust all its potential and the situation may end in a false breakout. There is no trend as such in the market, the price is inside the flat, and thus bearish pressure may resist the upward price movement.
Resistance levels: 0.5969, 0.5974
Support levels: 0.5932, 0.5917
Against the backdrop of a falling dollar, the currency pair is likely to continue its growth and may test 0.5969 in the short term, but based on the nature of the movement, we can assume that a downward correction will follow.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation (correction) ahead of newsFX:XAUUSD is testing resistance at 3346 and forming a correction, leaving liquidity above the level as the current target. The correction was influenced by the dollar. What can we expect next?
Gold is rising for the fourth day in a row and is approaching $3350, awaiting US PMI data. The dollar remains weak amid geopolitical risks, US-China disputes, and concerns about the US budget. The passage of Trump's tax bill could increase the deficit and pressure on the dollar. Weak PMI data could support gold by heightening expectations of a Fed rate cut
Technically, with the dollar falling, gold has every chance of continuing its rise. But now we are seeing a correction forming. I would say that the relevant areas of interest are 3288 and 0.5 Fibo
Resistance levels: 3346, 3360, 3409
Support levels: 3288, 3275, 3265
As part of the correction, gold may enter a consolidation phase, during which the price will gather liquidity relative to key areas of interest before continuing its growth. A retest and false breakout of 3288 - 3275 is possible before the growth continues.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XLMUSDT → Consolidation above 0.300 will provide an opportunityBINANCE:XLMUSDT.P is returning to the buying zone relative to strong resistance as part of a local uptrend. The market backdrop is favorable, but Bitcoin poses risks...
Bitcoin is updating its historical high and continuing its bullish trend, which is a favorable backdrop for altcoin growth. However, risks are posed by the fact that BTC may form a false breakout of resistance, which would trigger a correction across the entire market.
XLMUSDT is returning to the buying zone relative to strong resistance as part of a local uptrend.
If the bulls hold their ground above 0.3000, growth may continue in the short and medium term.
Resistance levels: 0.318, 0.324
Support levels: 0.300, 0.2975, 0.2799
The focus is on 0.3000, which is a fairly important and key (psychological) level. If the bulls manage to hold their ground above this point, the price will continue to rise, but it is necessary to monitor the behavior of the bitcoin.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDJPY → Pre-breakdown consolidation. Readiness for a declineFX:NZDJPY is under pressure from a global downtrend. Locally, a flat (range) and pre-breakdown consolidation relative to support are forming on the chart...
After a false breakdown of support on May 16, the price failed to reverse and grow. Instead, the currency pair entered a consolidation phase, during which it continues to test support. Each subsequent retest of 85.25-85.30 only increases the chances of a breakout with the aim of continuing the decline. Another important nuance is the elimination (short squeeze) of local resistance at 85.95.
Pressure on the price is also being exerted by the falling dollar index, which is strengthening the Japanese yen, which is generally reflected in the price of NZDJPY...
Support levels: 85.300, 85.25, 84.195
Resistance levels: 85.7, 85.95
The continuation of the current consolidation and the compression of the price towards support only increases the chances of a breakdown of the 85.30 support level. A break and consolidation of the price below 85.25 could trigger a further decline.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold - This is still clearly not over!Gold - TVC:GOLD - just needs a moment to breathe:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
It is just incredible how Gold has been rallying lately. Just over the past 1.5 years, Gold is up another +80% and is creating new all time highs every month. Since these strong rallies continue a lot longer than most people think, Gold still has significant upside potential.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $4.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
CHANNAL PATTERN - KAJARIACERTechnical Analysis:
Current Price: ₹1,003.9
Target: ₹4,000. This is a very ambitious long-term target, implying a substantial increase.
"History Repeat Based": Identified a historical pattern that, if repeated, could lead to such a significant price move.
Time Frame: 1 Year to 3 Year (indicates a long-term investment horizon for the target).
Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern: These are bullish technical indicators. Trendline support suggests that the stock is finding buyers at a certain level, preventing further declines. A parallel channel typically indicates a sustained trend within defined upper and lower boundaries; a breakout from such a channel can signify an acceleration of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis :
Market Cap: ₹15,984 Cr.
Current Price: ₹1,004
Stock P/E: 46.8 (Higher than the Industry P/E, indicating a premium valuation)
Key Fundamental Observations:
Valuation Premium: Kajaria Ceramics trades at a P/E of 46.8, which is higher than the industry P/E of 40.2. It is also significantly above its intrinsic value and Graham Number. This suggests the market is pricing in substantial future growth or recognizing its brand strength/market position.
Declining Profitability: The negative profit growth of -17.9% and the decline in EPS from the preceding year (₹26.5 down to ₹18.5) and also from the previous quarter (₹4.88 down to ₹2.67) are significant concerns. This indicates a recent slowdown or reversal in earnings.
Strong Financial Health: Very low Debt to Equity (0.10) is a positive sign of strong balance sheet management. ROCE (16.8%) and ROE (12.8%) are decent, but could be better given the high valuation.
Shareholding Pattern:
Promoters: Stable around 47.49% as of Mar 2025.
FIIs: Have decreased their stake from 23.38% (Mar 2017) to 15.79% (Mar 2025), with some fluctuations.
DIIs: Have consistently increased their stake from 5.76% (Mar 2017) to 27.68% (Mar 2025). This strong DII buying is a positive sign.
Public: Decreased from 23.47% (Mar 2017) to 9.06% (Mar 2025).
No. of Shareholders: Increased from 37,855 (Mar 2017) to 89,567 (Mar 2025), indicating increasing retail participation.
Balance Sheet:
Consistent Growth: Total Assets have steadily increased from ₹1,176 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹3,756 Cr (Mar 2025). Total Liabilities have also grown but seem managed.
Reserves: Growing steadily from ₹514 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹2,728 Cr (Mar 2025), indicating reinvested profits.
Borrowings: Have fluctuated but remained relatively low compared to overall size, reaching ₹274 Cr in Mar 2025.
Corporate Action & Latest News:
Recent news would primarily focus on the company's latest quarterly results (which, as per your data, show a decline in EPS and profit growth).
Any announcements regarding capacity expansion, new product launches, or market share gains would be relevant.
Given its position in the building materials sector, news on real estate demand, construction activity, and government infrastructure spending would impact its outlook.
Overall Assessment:
Technical analysis of Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern suggests a bullish outlook for Kajaria Ceramics. However, the fundamental picture shows some conflicting signals:
Positive: Strong balance sheet with low debt, increasing DII participation, growing shareholder base, and a history of growth in assets/reserves.
Negative: High valuation (P/E above industry, above intrinsic value), and importantly, a significant negative trend in profit growth and EPS (both year-on-year and sequentially in the latest quarter).
Target of ₹4000 (1-3 years): This is an extremely ambitious target, requiring a nearly 4x increase from the current price. While "history repeat" can be a valid technical argument, it would require a significant turnaround in the company's profitability to fundamentally support such a valuation in the long term, especially given the current negative profit growth.
Conclusion:
While the technical patterns you've identified could indicate short to medium-term upward movement, the long-term target of ₹4000 seems very aggressive given the recent fundamental trends of declining profit and EPS. For such a target to be plausible, Kajaria Ceramics would need to demonstrate a strong and sustained turnaround in its earnings performance in the coming quarters/years.
Considerations:
Confirm Technical's: Ensure the trendline support and parallel channel patterns are clearly established and holding on the chart.
Monitor Fundamentals Closely: Pay very close attention to upcoming quarterly results. A reversal of the negative profit growth trend is essential to support higher valuations.
Risk vs. Reward: Evaluate the risk involved, especially with a stock trading at a premium valuation while showing declining profitability.
Trendline Breakout - ZyduswellTechnical Analysis:
Current Price: ₹1970
Trendline Breakout Pattern: This is a strong bullish technical signal, indicating that the stock has potentially moved past a resistance level and is poised for an upward move. Confirmation would ideally come with increased trading volume.
Target 1: ₹2100
Target 2: ₹2500
Target 3: ₹3000
Time Frame:
1st & 2nd targets: 1 to 3 months
3rd target: 6 months to 1 year
Potential Upside from Current Price (₹1970):
Target 1 (₹2100): ~6.6% upside
Target 2 (₹2500): ~26.9% upside
Target 3 (₹3000): ~52.3% upside
Fundamental Analysis :
Market Cap: ₹12,541 Cr.
Stock P/E: 36.8 (Higher than the Industry P/E, indicating a premium valuation)
Face Value: ₹10.0
Industry P/E: 30.9
Key Fundamental Observations:
Valuation: The P/E of 36.8 is higher than the industry P/E of 30.9, implying that the market is already factoring in future growth. The current price is also well above its Intrinsic Value and Graham Number.
Profitability: The profit growth of 22.3% is robust and a positive sign.
Earnings Consistency: The EPS of ₹54.5 for the "last year" matching the current EPS, and the "EPS preceding year" being ₹41.9, suggests healthy year-on-year growth. The latest quarter's EPS (₹27.0) is very strong, indicating a significant recent boost in earnings compared to the previous quarter (₹1.01). This strong quarterly performance is likely driving recent optimism.
Financial Health: Low Debt to Equity (0.03) indicates very strong financial health.
Corporate Action (Based on recent public information, not in the image):
Stock Split: Zydus Wellness announced a stock split in a 1:5 ratio (face value ₹10 to ₹2). This is typically done to enhance liquidity and make shares more accessible. This is subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming AGM (scheduled for July 30, 2025).
Dividend: The board has recommended a final dividend of ₹6 per equity share of ₹10 face value for FY25, subject to shareholder approval.
Latest News (as of May 21, 2025):
The primary recent news for Zydus Wellness revolves around its strong Q4 FY25 financial results, where it reported a significant increase in net profit and revenue from operations. The impressive jump in EPS for the latest quarter (₹27.0 from ₹1.01 previous quarter) is a key highlight.
The announcement of the stock split and dividend recommendation also contributes positively to recent news flow and investor sentiment.
There's also news about the company unveiling a refreshed corporate brand identity, signaling strategic moves in its market positioning.
Conclusion:
The technical Trendline Breakout for Zydus Wellness appears to be strongly supported by its recent robust financial performance, particularly the impressive EPS jump in the latest quarter and a healthy profit growth of 22.3%. The company's low debt is also a significant positive.
While the stock is trading at a premium P/E (36.8 vs industry 30.9) and above its intrinsic value, the strong recent growth and positive corporate actions (stock split, dividend) could justify this valuation for investors anticipating continued strong performance.
The targets of ₹2100 / ₹2500 within 1-3 months and ₹3000 within 6 months to 1 year seem plausible if the fundamental growth momentum continues and the technical breakout holds with good volume.
GOLD → Breaking of the downward trend structure...FX:XAUUSD is breaking out of the downward price channel and heading towards the zone of interest at 3346. A false breakout of resistance could trigger a correction before growth continues.
Gold is rising for the third day in a row and trading above $3,300 amid a weakening dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions. Investors are seeking refuge due to concerns about US fiscal policy, trade disputes with China, and a possible Israeli strike on Iran. Gold is also supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and weak prospects for the dollar.
Technically, the price is heading towards the order block and resistance at 3345-3360. Since the opening of the session, the price has exhausted all its potential, and a retest of the key level may end in a false breakout and correction. However, based on the fundamental background, gold's growth may continue after the correction...
Resistance levels: 3346, 3360, 3409
Support levels: 3288, 3265, 3245
Gold has returned to the buy zone, but the fundamental background is unstable, and any weakening of economic risks could send gold back south. At the moment, the focus is on 3346-3360, with a false breakout likely to trigger a correction.
Best regards, R. Linda!
