US30Currently US30 is in bearish territory, which is strong supply zone and trendline resistance.
Will the sellers attack this area ?
Trendlinerejection
Seeing a huge drop coming for GOLD this weekGOLD may retest 2318 area and complete an inverted head and shoulders, and then head up to resistance level which lines up perfectly on trendline resistance AND lines up perfectly at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, this is a very interesting level for these 3 lining up this trendline has been valid for months and very strong trendline resistance that has been tested multiple times. I suspect GOLD will plummet down to 2300-2280 by the end of this week, probably during London session as from my personal experience I have seen this happen multiple times and have taken this opportunity to profit off this pattern
moreover the DXY has been making impulses to the upside and healthy retracements to continue with another impulse this week if the trend continues, keeping on eye on news to support this bias and watching these levels on particular the 2340-2350 area
Can 1st Week of 2024 avoid the Thunderstorm of Dec 20, 2023 ???Remember the Great Sudden Multi-Sector Fall of Dec 20, 2023 where Almost all Sectors of NSE/BSE fell together ???
Refer our 8 Part Series - Decoding the Mystery of the Dec 20 Fall for more explanation of why we faced Major Selling Pressure Across Sectors
Is there a possibility of something Similar on the New Year Week ??? - Before we say Yes / No - let's first understand what happened on Dec 20, 2023.
If 1 particular Sector (ex: Small Cap) faces its resistance, major small stocks is expected to face a correction. When we have diversified portfolio with multiple sectors - we will still have a healthy Day P&L as other sectors provide some support
When All Sectors face their Resistance together - most of the stocks in your portfolio will see RED same day which triggers Panic Selling of weak hands - which aggravates the situation further.
1st Week of Jan 2024 is facing similar situation. 6 out of 13 Sectors what we reviewed are facing their Resistance together. Rather than saying its "Time to be Cautious", I would suggest "Its Time to be Brave". There could be a Panic Selling again from Retail investors, but its just a normal Correction. Those who held their nerve on the Dec 20 crash would vouch for the fact that their Portfolio recovered fully / more than the fall within next 2-3 (or max 5) sessions.
Small Cap
Mid Cap
Energy
Realty
IT
Nifty
The Remaining 7 Sectors - Look good with BO and more room for Upward move. So, this time, it won't be as bad as Dec 20 and if people realize their Mistakes from Dec 20 and hold their nerve - we can collectively overcome the situation
7 Sectors that are Bullish / Have more room for Upside:
Pharma
Media
Metal
Auto
Finance
Bank Nifty
FMCG
If you like our analysis - please do share your views, likes, Boosts and support us
- Team Stocks-n-Trends
USDCHF Short From H4 OB + Trendline Resistance + RSI DivergenceHello everyone!
I expect this paor to continue its global downtrend.
4 major points that supports my view:
1) There is a massive orderblock formed on Sept 3.
2) Trendline resistance
3) The divergence on RSI indicator on H1.
4) The central babk of Switzerland has raised it's interest rate by 0.75%!
Entry: 0.98411
SL: 0.98665
TP: 0.9508 (On filling the imbalance left aftrer CPI data)
You can find re-entry after it will make a Choch on LTF.
HEY EURAUD !!!!!!!!!EURAUD has been trending downward on the 4H timeframe which was also complemented with a downtrending trendline with two touches we also anticipate the third touch on the trendline for a possible SELL
Price is currently approaching a significant psychological key level of 1.47000.
Will there be a break above or rejection on that level ?????
WATCH OUT
1. Third touch on the trendline
2. Price action candlestick
3. Market behavior
Deere in HeadlightsOn the monthly, weekly, and daily, DE does not look good. It may seem like a Bull pennant but I believe this is a long distribution. The newest weekly close is a rejection of the top trendline. I expect it to retest the bottom of the trendline and, if the overall market is doing poorly, then DE will fail to bottom out and fall off a cliff. Price action is the biggest determinant here. The RSI, MACD, and moving averages do not suggest a bullish breakout but are more lukewarm in their current status. The newest weekly candle closing bearish is, for me, a signal that DE will now fall.
THETA ShortM pattern forming (with 3 trendline rejections, the 3rd currently rejecting)
Parabolic run up while the rest of the market was either ranging or moving up slowly
Options expired yesterday, so could see a further move downwards as we have seen in the past after options expire
Nearing the end of the week/month
Its currently the weekend where we usually see a correction of the weeks bullish movement
2 strong rejections of the $14.50-$15.00 supply zone on 23rd and 24th March
BTC is currently still in a range between $50-$55k (current price is $54k)
Daily/3D/W RSI still in heavy overbought territory at 70 and above
RUNEUSD (Thorchain) analysis updatePrice has gone up around 15% since yesterdays analysis, however i still see there being further downside on this pair. While this has gone up, ETH and LTC have stayed relatively stagnant, while BTC is currently ranging between 50-55k.
As shown on the chart we can see a head and shoulders pattern has formed along with a hanging man at the strong resistance level around $5.80-$6.00. We can also see that price has shot up straight into the TL where we could see a rejection from.
I also find usually when price shoots up during the Asian session/early morning GMT time, we usually see a reversal of this movement later on in the day producing a wick on the daily candle. I still see BTC hitting at least 49k which will also bring ALTS down further and adding confluence to this analysis.
And finally we are also nearing the end of the monthly candle. If we close around the level we are at now, we should see a wick in the new monthly candle into $4.20 before a continuation of the uptrend.
Beware the Ides of March! Possible Bull Trap Corrective Wave2!?!Chart says all. I do not pretend to know WTH is gonna happen tomorrow, can't even see 20 seconds into the future fgs.
IF this plays like I think it might, gonna get Beary Ugly PDQ. See divergent indicators; the major indexes also diverge, DJI at new ATH while this struggles back to the breakout point. Gonna reject under the TL IMO.
I'd short this in QQQ March contracts. First wave took QQQ to 310; a 1.62 extension of the 28-pip drop from 338 ATH from current price at ~325 yields -45, so wave 3 might carry price down to 280; 5th wave grind back to just above October lows, around 11200, QQQ around 272 (above the 268 low on support line). If it won't bull by Tuesday 2 March then that dog won't hunt IMO. Expect this Unwind to grind down to the Ides on Monday 15th.
Gonna hit the Moon after this plays out...if it plays like this! This one goes out to The_Unwind; the bears emerge from hibernation!
Trade at your own risk, this is definitely NOT investing advice, just a WAG and a dice roll! GLTA!!
PS: "Making predictions is difficult, especially when it's about the future!"
DJI Rolling over- Textbook RejectionRefer to J Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: Fig 4-10a; rejection, return to TL; rejection confirmed:
cdn.preterhuman.net
See p. 72; and discussion of reversal patterns with diminishing volume pp 103, 107/8; Fig 6.8c with discussion of wedges as reversal pattern, and volume on pp 147-150.
All this is THEORY. Trade at your own Risk; GLTA!
NB: DJI is STRONG SELL on multiple indicators, see investing.com:
www.investing.com
IMO we could get a wee lift if you look back week of 19-23 October, a weak lift before the deep dump... will Santa save DJI?!
EURAUD two possible scenarioson H4: EURAUD is overall bearish trading below our green trendline so we will be looking for objective sell setups on lower timeframes as price approaches it.
unless price forms a new swing around our green trendline and breaks it upward, then we will buy this one long-term.
on H1: EURAUD is forming a channel in red so we will be waiting for a new swing to form around our lower red trendline and sell on its break downward.
we also have a regular bearish divergence adding more confluence to our sell setup.
Cadjpy is ready to FALLThe cross is approaching a trendline and has created a bearish Cypher pattern ( we can also see a shar pattern completed on 0.886% of XA leg reached by a spike of a H4 candle), in addition there is a clear hidden divergence in RSI. Japanise yen is still strong because Covid crisis has not finished yet and some counties like South Korea and China has registred new cases; if we look at COT we see that speculators are short in CANADIAN DOLLAR and long in JAPANESE YEN, they have increased their position during last week.
I suggest to open a sell trade using a good money management, if price breaks up the trendline close in loss.
Good trading
Francesco
GOLD SELL SIGNALHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trade-plan.
Important: This is meant to be a preparation for you. As always we will have to wait for a confirmation.
Gold can be very choppy so keep your risk low and mange it aggressively!
Sell-Limit: 1701,00
Stop-Loss: 1714,60
Target 1: 1690,00
Target 2: 1683,50
Target 3: 1674,00
Stop-Loss: 1340 pips
Risk: 1%
Risk-Reward: 2,00
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
BTC Golden Cross On The Daily Despite Recent Sell OffAfter a healthy uptrend BTC has met resistance on the major diagonal resistance line drawn from the 20k & 14k peaks. Despite a strong rejection we have still managed to get a Golden Cross on the daily chart . Stochastic RSI in oversold conditions. However, We are in overbought territory on the Weekly timeframe in Stochastic RSI . Looking at moving averages for support out fist one would be the 50 day around the $8,500 region. We need to breakout of the diagonal resistance before we can put our moon suits on. That time only grows closer each day. Could see a double bottom get printed in daily Stochastic RSI in oversold condition while the weekly cools off. There is definitely some downside potential for BTC and the market overall in the short term. If your focused on the macro picture you know where were going long term. Double digit blocks soon to be a thing of the past ---> for ever.
Please Like & Comment ------> Lets Be Friends **even if we disagree**
HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
DJIA: B wave reaction rally of ABC minor correction pause to ATHGot a typical reactionary rally after breakdown from rising wedge. Price moves back to kiss TL then rejects into C leg. This is a minor shallow correction of perhaps ~3%; a pause on road to ultimate ATH.
Gaps to fill down to 2949 on SPX will be the best yardstick for pivot. Buy all-in when price fills that gap IMO. Donald will make some deal with China soon as he wants to get elected, and that draws near. Expect some development in mid-Dec as catalyst.
Market knows he will get re-elected, Dems have no competitive candidate in field, their prospects are amusing at best and impeachment is a farce.
This isn't investing advice! Trade at your own risk! GLTA!
US 30 Banging on Ceiling; Rejection from Upper TL BoundaryLook under the twin arrows at the Doji how they pierce TL then reject- four times now.
In downtrend along upper edge of triangle pennant; flagpole bottom half ~ equal to upper in these patterns.
Just an idea; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
really SCARY FRACTAL spotted on LTC!What's coin on guys?
I'll just drop this fractal here for you to follow. If this fractal plays out, drop could be huge. Don't mind the deformation from copied fractal. This happened because of the log scale.
If you are long here, be carefull and set your stops very close.
Trendlines...Trendlines can be super powerful! Draw them onto the tops of the wicks of the candles, do not 'make them fit' and always be wary for a retest to get that sniper entry!
US 30 Trendline Test Rejection: Imminent ThrowoverCompare/contrast to 11/12 June top and throwover. Bearish engulfing candle. Shooting stars. On intraday we saw hanging man twice, and shooting star in SPX 8/.21.
Expect imminent throwover to entry on wave C of ABC ZigZag correction pattern within days, after reaching all-time high on SPX 8/21, US 30 25888 at Fibo 0.786 from Jan 26 high. Target 23531.
Possibly one more rally attempt to trendline on 8/23, then swoon; or just start lower back down into Bear Flag channel now.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
XAUUSD - SHORTTechnical analysis only:
Pitchfork top rejection, overbought stochastics, weekly trendlines rejection, downtrend, fibonacci .618 retracement
Risk/Reward: 2.43
