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Massive Risk/Reward in $AAL right nowAAL As seen in the attached weekly chart below, AAL has reached a lifetime support level triple bottom. In addition to this, the daily chart is showing some very steep bullish divergence in RSI and in the Klinger Oscillator. I have had much success playing these particular types of RSI divergences, ones where there is a steep drop into oversold conditions, a slight bounce, followed by a drop below the prior low. If this price action occurs along with a steep RSI divergence print, I have found a high likelihood of a move upward to follow. However, being right at this critical support level adds the most important aspect; risk/reward. Stop loss set at 24.98 allows for less than 2% loss before being able to cut the position and move on elsewhere. With possible gains at a minimum of 15%, the reward outweighs the risk by a ratio of 9:1. Not bad odds to me. If playing short term, I like Sept. 6th C28 options, currently available for no more than .13 per contract. If a longer term buyer, this would be a great spot to initiate a position with stop losses set at 24.98. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:AALLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
I'd Wait Another 100 Bucks before Buying $NFLX NetflixNFLX Just an observation on the lifetime channel of NFLX Netflix. It seems to me that any increased selling pressure should easily bring this down to the 200 range by the end of September without breaking much of a sweat. I'm looking for the RSI support break myself. Note the Klinger Oscillator has crosed over bearish, turned below zero and began to spread. Not a good sign for now. Whatever your beliefs in this stock fundamentally may be, I won't argue. But technically, I would not go long this stock until it either touches its midpoint line around the 200 area or it broke above its ATH. I don't care how much gain I would miss in between, because my piece of mind being able to sleep knowing I'm not worrying to death over my NFLX investment is worth way more. Much much better opportunities in the market at this time than this stock. Just one man's opinion. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$AMZN Short Paying Off Losing SupportAMZN In my previous post (linked) I noted a good potential spot to go short AMZN, and did so through put options. That is paying off now, up well over 100% already on options, and if this loss of support holds/deepens, could potentially be very profitable with plenty of time left to expiration. Hope you rode with, but if not, I might look to see if this support loss holds, or see if it retraces back up to lost support before entering. Happy hunting, and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:AMZN
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
5
Critical Spot For CanopyCGC Uptrend support line is being tested as we speak. If it does not hold, there is a secondary trend line of a former resistance that may turn support right at 24 area. If looking to get in long for CGC, this is a good spot simply because you can cut losses quickly if support breaks and not lose your a**. I do like the longer term prospects of this company once R&D costs and expansion costs start to wane. For now, entry at this level with a stop loss at 23.98 gives about 10:1 risk/reward ratio in favor of reward. Cut loss at 23.98 is less than 6% off current price. I bought a few more shares here, but still saving my biggest buys for either a further fall or a turnaround bounce. Happy hunting and glta!
CLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
1
Splunk Could Have A Ton of Downside Left...SPLK Shown is the lifetime channel of SPLK Splunk. As shown in the chart, it has been bouncing around near the channesl resistance for some time, and without in any way breaking its pattern could see the Mid 60's-70's. This represents a 40% drop. However, a catch on the uptrend support line and ride back up to the channel resistance represents about a 35% gain. Therefore, from this current position, it is still a watch and wait. If it loses support, I will short on the retest. If it catches convincingly on support, I will go long. I don't like getting in when its in that in-between stage. If you were short today, congrats on the gains. If you are looking to get in, might wanna look elsewhere until we reach key levels. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
S
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$AMZN Flirting With Disaster or Prepping For Run??AMZN Currently testing resistance of what I believe to be a bear flag consolidation pattern. This is a great place to get short if you want to risk a little capital, due to the ability to cut out with a small loss if it breaks above this resistance, so stop loss at 1836. If it does not break though, you get the reward of the entire move downward, which could very well be around 1585 without breaking a sweat. In this scenario, risk/reward ratio using these targets and stops allow for an 18:1 ratio. On the flip side, if it does break upward, it would run into a convergence of a couple resistance trend lines around the 1790's area. Close above 1835 would indicate that scenario. What I'm looking at is the fact that Amazon lost its daily 125 moving average support. In the past when AMZN loses the 125, but bounces around it, up and down, it generally recovers it within a few weeks and goes on an extended run. However, when it loses the 125 and CANNOT reclaim it, then there has generally been multiple rejections followed by a "bear market" scenario for Amazon, as shown in the end of 2018. I am currently going short AMZN through Aug 30th P1640 at .70. Just one single contract is plenty with Amazon, because that 70 dollar bet can easily turn into well over 1,000 dollars if the price action acts as I suspect it may. Either way, as a technical trader I will follow the trail of the price action and act accordingly. My plans are usually laid out for at least 2 scenarios, as I believe any good trader should do. Get caught with your foot stuck on the gas pedal either way and you're headed for disaster. Anyway, happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
2
$MDB Bet Paying OffMDB As shown in linked idea on MongoDB, it was sitting at a minimum 6:1 risk/reward ratio at open Monday. If you took that trade there, which I did at open, you're currently up around 6% after one day. Has broken out of inner resistance, now headed toward outer resistance at 153 area. If it is able to convincingly break that trendline, it is very possible for this thing to have an extended run as it has every other time it bouyed around the 125 MA. If so, the logarithmic channel top would end up being over 250 per share. I'm an owner of this strong growth stock. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:MDBLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Remember when I said don't bet against this one??AYX Pure strength. As you can see from the chart, AYX is in the process of breaking out of its lifetime channel resistance. If this is able to hold the breakout this week, the sky is the limit for this thing. No overhead resistance, so only psychological resistances to worry about technically. Usually those come in numbers divisible by 5, so likely looking at 150 first resistance, then 155, and so on. Just a super strong growth stock. Short at your own peril. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
ALong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
4
$GRUB True Bullish Harami DailyGRUB GrubHub has just completed printing a true Bullish Harami candlestick pattern at the bottom of a downtrend. Attached link to diagram explaining the rules for the bullish harami. Large bearish candle, followed by a gap up from close bearish candle, whose body is no bigger than 25% the preceding bear candle. In addition to this pattern, the RSI has shown a breakout from its downtrend pattern and oversold conditions. This looks like a good, short term long play to me, I like the August 23rd C62.5, currently around .55 per contract. Happy hunting and GLTA!! a.c-dn.net
GLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$MCD McDonald's Weekly True Bearish HaramiMCD McDonald's has just completed printing a true Bearish Harami two candle pattern. True Harami's are explained in linked diagram below. The body of the second, inner candle needs to be no bigger than 25% the size of the preceding candle, in which case this one qualifies. A true large bullish candle at the top of an uptrend, followed by a 75% smaller bodied bearish candle that gaps down from the previous closing price, and is fully contained by the preceding bullish candle. That's a reversal indicator and a good spot to get short MCD if you've been looking to. I believe we could see the 202's area on a pullback. This is a stock that generally outperforms when the markets are in true turmoil, and has been on a tear lately. I wouldn't want to stay short for very long personally. I like August 30th P205, currently trading for .40 per contract for this play. Happy hunting and GLTA!! a.c-dn.net
NYSE:MCDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$SPY Downward Momentum May Be Halted...For Now...SPY Well, the way the last candle looked in SPY, it would appear the strong down pressure has been halted for the moment. In looking at the chart, it is beginning to appear we may be headed in a direction similar to a Three Drives Pattern. If this is the case, SPY could very well see new ATH's before failing in earnest again. I would actually expect to see a flase breakout from ATH's resistance trendline in order to confirm this bearish three drives pattern. My targets for this pattern would be next 306-307's area, and then around the .618 of the origination of the pattern, which puts bottom target around 278's. Long way to go before this type of pattern could be confirmed, but its definitely a possibility I am exploring. Under 295 this is still in a bearish tilt, consolidating for a new fast leg down to 274's area. My current plan has been to buy puts on daily rallies at around 10:30 am. However, as I am a technical trader, price action dictates my plan, not emotion or even underlying fundamentals. For this reason plans change accordingly, and only bad traders do what they said they would 3 weeks ago when the price action since hasn't cooperated. So far my plan has worked out well on daily shorts, but Fridays strength leads me to believe that we may be headed to resistances rather than supports. If you are not in yet, I would would wait on a confirmation first, which long would be a break and close above 295, for short a break and close below 282. In the meantime, could play short term options for some quick daily cash. Really depends on what type of trader you are. For myself personally, I am still in my short daily rallies around 10:30 am plan, which has worked nearly every rally except for Friday. Just wanted to lay out my "Plan B" plan in case Plan A gets negated. I will be posting a more longer term chart explaining my levels and what they mean to me on a much bigger scale, so stay tuned if you are interested in hearing a multitude of plans. Happy hunting, and GLTA!!
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Risk/Reward 6:1 Minimum in MDB Right NowMDB In my previous post (linked) I looked at the way MongoDB previously had reacted to tests of its 125 moving average over its short but super strong lifespan. This is a true growth stock, and is currently in a position to offer a minimum of 6:1 ratio on risk/reward from Friday's close. This is dependent on setting a stop loss below the current uptrend line and channel this stock has ridden on its rise, so around 134.50 should do. On breakout from the current inner resistance, MDB should have very little trouble running to at least its previous ATH 185ish, but just as easily may head all the way back up to the top of its channel near 250ish. RSI is on watch for breaking out of resistance line, and Klinger Oscillator is quickly heading towards bullish entry point when crossing zero line while crossed over bullish. I entered last week at 139.50 as a hold, with stop loss set for now. If it breaks out as I suspect it will, I will use a trail stop instead. If looking for short term gains, I suggest options after the breakout, either up or down. Happy hunting, and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:MDBLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Accumulation Zone Entry For $TREETREE As noted in my previous post on LendingTree (linked) this is a patient trade that requires a trader to display discipline and belief in the trading plan. The accumulation zone was noted as 285-270 in previous post, and this week TREE hit sub 285 for the first time on the pullback in formation of a true cup and handle pattern. I say "true" cup and handle because that--along with head and shoulders--are the most misused patterns I notice on this site. The true cup and handle is a continuation pattern that should occur at the top of an uptrend, and the handle portion should retrace about 2/3 of the cup depth. So, if you are looking to add to or get in TREE, I say now is the time. The handle bottom should coincide with the uptrend support line and the 125 moving avaerage, which this stock respects. First target will be 450ish, with the very real possibility of this stock ending up well over 500 in the next few years, macro conditions permitting. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:TREELong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Conagra Breakout TargetsCAG Conagra Brands gapped up out of its recent consolidation pattern, freeing it up for a run to posted targets. Gains of 10% and 20%, respectively. Shown below is a close up daily chart for a better view of the gap up breakout. Monthly chart indicates this stock could very well see the 44 area longer term. I personally like this stock for longer term buy for gains+dividends. Shorter term, look for Sept 20th C31, currently available for about .40 per contract. Happy hunting and GLTA!
NYSE:CAGLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$CGC bout to be "coming down" I believe...CGC Has run into multiple resistance trendlines coming into their ER release. I look for this to break it out of the current mini bear flag it's currently riding in, and send down toward support in the 27's area. At that point this stock is a long term add in my opinion. The industry will continue to grow, and this company will continue to find ways to grow with it. Short term I think it's "coming down", but after it does buy the hell out of the dip and get high along with Canopy Growth. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
CShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
$WMT Sitting at strong support going into ERNYSE:WMT Wal-Mart is sitting at what should be a strong area of support going into its quarterly ER this Thursday. Strictly technically speaking, this is a convergence of multiple supports that should provide a stop to the selling pressure. There is a horizontal former resistance that should turn support, an uptrend support line, and the 125 MA all in a cluster right around the 105 area. In addition to this, there is a strong short term bullish divergence in the RSI. Typically this is an ideal area to look for a bounce, when the price drops, bounces slightly, then drops further than the initial drop. If the RSI from the secondary drop stays quite a bit higher than from the initial drop in my experience this provides a strong indication of reversal. One final note technically speaking is that WMT recently broke out of a consolidation pattern to reach its ATH's, and this drop represents what many like to think of as an ideal entry point--the retest of the breakout area. Add it all up and it looks like the spot where I want to take my chances going long on Wal-Mart, even knowing the headwinds retail has faced across the board. Because of the expectations of retail difficulties, any sort of surprise positive result will likely send this thing flying well past it's ATH's. So, I have bought some shares here at 105.25 (only 5 shares) and have also took a shot with Sep 20th C120 at .17 apiece (5 contracts). Total risked is only just over 600 bucks, with possible returns far far outweighing possible losses at this point. Stop at 102.5, selling options either worthless or at WMT 115 by end of August. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NYSE:WMTLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Love it when plan comes together...NYSE:KR Kroger's stock is doing exactly what it should be doing right now. In my previous KR post (linked) I laid out various approaches to this one, the best was accumulation of shares to catch the gains from the stock itself as well as the recently increased dividend of now .16 per share. Shaping up technically for a run towards a gap fill, next target 26. After that we'll have to see, but if you own shares in the 20.xx area like myself, I think you'll be happy with how the remainder of 2019 turns out. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NYSE:KRLong
by UnknownUnicorn1314136