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Trendreversal

Bitcoin waking up after being repeatedly poked with a stick..Good day Traders As I'm sure everyone and their pet poodle knows, bitcoin had a triangle breakout a few days ago with all the volume we were looking for. If you see my previous post, I thought we would first drop to just under $3k for a dead cat bounce to $5200, however, we've averted the weekly EMA15 and EMA200 bearish cross for now. The market was impatient and started the wave up without that drop and it seems we could be in the midst of a mid term change in trend already (just a pause in downtrend, as opposed to the end of the downtrend). Since we never had that drop, I think we could possibly reach an even higher fomo extension target than the $5200 I originally had in mind. During a strong trend reversal, it's not uncommon to have a 261.8 - 461.8 fib extension of the first breakout impulse wave. We have a number of bullish signals and patterns for a mid term trend change: Bullish crossover EMA10 and SMA100 about to take place Bullish crossover EMA10 and EMA50 complete (backtest to see how significant these crosses are on the daily chart) Price closed above SMA100, EMA10 and EMA50 on the daily Potential Inverse H&S - currently printing the right shoulder Breakout from symmetrical triangle (reversal scenario as opposed to the usual continuation pattern) I suspect we'll now have a 38.2-68.1 fib retracement of the recent breakout impulse). These impulse waves have been so strong that we haven't had much pullback since the start of Feb. We should find support at our daily SMA100, and start moving towards our IHS neckline for a potential breakout. The breakout will need strong increasing volume to break through major trendline resistance from our ATH. First TP is $4300/$4400 which is a 161.8 fib extension of the recent breakout impulse, and our daily SMA128 resistance, which has held as significant S/R in the past for bitcoin). This area has held as strong resistance since 28 November 2018, so we should have a better idea if this is in fact a change in trend once we reach those levels and assess the volume profile. If $4300/$4400 doesn't provide much resistance and we blast through with ease with increasing volume, then safe to say we're probably heading up, with a change in trend direction to fill those outstanding liquidity gaps in the $4- 5ks. Second TP is 261.8 fib extension target of $4760 - $4880 which is also the target for the inverse H&S. Third TP is the minimum target for the symmetrical triangle breakout, our daily SMA200 resistance and a 361.8 fib extension target of $5230/$5350. Any move above our daily SMA200, I expect to be a short-lived extension. That $6k resistance is not going to be an easy nut to crack, after serving as impenetrable support for almost a year and I suspect if we do fomo that high, we'll probably have a 461.8 fib bull trap extension limit of $5700-$5800, before resuming the downtrend from there, potentially to new lows. Good luck and happy trading! Previous chart: "Already bottomed" view (unlikely) :
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Corn_Reaper
1
Bear With Me. Final Episode to the Series.Pun in title intended. This chart has a lot going on now. I've been playing off of the same chart with the same long-trend lines drawn on it, so we'll just call this one Part III of the saga. What I've discovered today feels like some serious implications, and I have hardened reasons to believe that the Dow rally on this leg is over. Here we go... So, I've pulled up the Volume Oscillator indicator because it does a great job at allowing you to pair long term volume with short term volume, converts them into different moving averages, gives you a difference between the two to provide you with an index that gives us a relative point of view as to what's going on in with the market sentiment now VS this 200-day moving average of volume data. Why did I select 200 days? 200 days is arbitrary. It gives me a little more than half a year and a little less than a whole year of trading information, and from what I've seen in the world of commerce, years are compartmentalized in terms of major milestones on a semi-annual basis. So, for the big stuff like capex, investment projects and debt issuance, a lot of that goal-seeking has an overall semi-annual consequence. The reason I put in a little bit over 6 months, however, is because it reflects a lot of major turning points in the market that I want to make my charting relevant to. ...I'll explain more on that later. There's quite a bit of evidence in previous versions of this chart that I'll have to cover, and it could not play into my theory any more perfectly. As a hint, Just before Donald Trump was elected, this market was seeking direction, and just as soon as we were gearing up for the November election, something happened in the financial seas that made unmistakable history with breaking the "line 1" trend line I depicted in my 1st and 2nd chart. Volume Oscillator Ticked and boomed us right through that resistance line that anchors waaay back into the 2008 recession to about 2016, where we took off at that breakout and blew out our engines, thrusting into altitudes we'd never seen before. Anyhow, 200 days is a great MA on this one. So, what does this have to do with this very moment? Relax, I'm getting to that. The short MA of the oscillator is set for 3 days because I'm trying to get an idea of turning points relative to a whole broad-scope of data, and this has worked so far in showing me where the trends run out of gas, pick up momentum in the other direction and dump volume into another leg of a new trend. The area I've circled is just after we drove 3-day volumes right into the December pit, where CNBC stated was "the bottom". And as we know, that's fake news. Not CNBC necessarily but "the bottom" indicated. We see the crest of the volume indicator moving up, coming to a point, and just as quickly, tapering off as the market decides to take us on this drastic upswing that started in the beginning of January. That's the part that is important. We took a massive rally in this past month, and if I'm using a 3-day short MA paired to a 200-day MA, that's a clear indication that this rally happened while a lot of folks were holding onto their positions or just plain holding out altogether. This doesn't imply that people sitting on the side-lines didn't have skin in the game. No, quite the opposite. It means the people on the side-lines were doing just that...taking a seat for a while. But as we could already see, they were active at one point, so we know that they are certainly there. I cannot stress enough that this indicator trips against 200 days of volume averages, so we're seeing statistically significant behavior here. That's huge. Another thing I NEED to point out is how the volume indicator reads just like any other chart pattern otherwise. Look at the bounces where it finds support, notice also that is finds levels of resistance as well. After some time, it will move in either direction when caught outside of its support/resistance range. Right now, we are drifting right back up passed the red line, which is the average overlayed by the Bollinger bands on that same indicator. While it is moving along this average, it is seeking a break point. Oh, and I almost forgot to tell you; the average used on the Bollinger band is also a 200-day MA. Meaning that the oscillator line skirting along that MA is simply looking for its relative breakpoint. So, here's what we do now... Stay with me folks, we're almost there...Let's jump over the ChandeMO, which is our momentum indicator. This is going to move with the chart on uptrends and downtrends fairly similarly to the RSI, though it's much more tuned to reflect the competition between up and down movements while also keeping the average-differences accumulated for that 9-day average. I know that sounds like a mouthful, but it's very literally what shows us if we're running out of convincing room to move further down or running out of gas in moving further up, while maintaining within that -100 to +100 bounds, and we are CAPPED OUT. What I'm saying is that it can hold on the high-end for a while, but look also where the actual candle sticks are relative to that white resistance line. It cannot give us this plateauing momentum configuration and read as though the candlestick trends will continue moving higher - past the resistance line. That's not going to happen. So, we've got a solid read on the market with 2 things here: 1) Bears are literally waiting for confirmation to dump on this market, and they are sitting on the edge of their bench, waiting at the side-lines. 2) The fervor behind this month's upswing is puttering out of fuel. What is even more concerning is that we're just on the tail-end of very narrowed volume oscillation and already on the other side of the thinnest point relative to that 200-day average. To me, this reads that those Bollinger bands are going to fatten up, and we're going to see a lot of activity here REALLY shortly because even volume has its trend. In my experience, people are much more easily excitable into selling off than they are when it comes to buying in, and that just goes to show that risk-aversion is hardcoding in our DNA. More charts to follow soon.
DJ:DJIShort
by thehoplite
4
AUDUSD SELLAUDUSD could expect 30-50 pips fall next days. It just reached supply level at psychological level price in market imbalance with NZD. Stay tuned and feel free to follow up for more ideas. risk reward 1:2 Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.
Short
by Michalangelo
Can OmiseGo OMGBTC make a recovery of 625% in 2019?Dont forget give like to this chart & share with others, doing so will encourage me share more charts with you. OmiseGo ( OMGBTC )all i can say right at the bottom and all time low. Its in huge correction since 23rd april 2018 when it did high of 0.002543. I would recommend to take entry now, atleast 5-10% of your portfolio funds. TA RSI 29 extremely oversold. MACD CORSSOVER 1D chart moving along with 21 EMA. Huge Accumulation is going on. Alot also depends on btc movement, and a rally up will be a good reward from here. BUY AROUND 0.000327-0.00034 TARGETS (1)0.000380 (2)0.000412 (3)0.000465 (4)0.000503 (5)0.000550 (MOON-SHOT 62%) STOP-LOSS -5% BELOW ENTRY POINT DISCLAIMER: For Educational Purpose only, make sure you do full study and analysis before making or doing any type of investment.
OLong
by open4profit
3
NAS100 Short - Trend Reversal, Awaits Demand ZoneFor the past 13 months, NAS100 has stayed about the 6200-6300 supply zone to maintain an overall bullish trend. However, since this level has been broken, it could simply mean that the bull is out of steam and the bear is taking charge now. This can be further confirmed by the recent appreciation of some of the safe haven asset such as gold and Swiss franc. While the price has broken through deeply, the retracement also appears nothing close to shallow. Wait for the price to retrace further into the demand zone at 6500 to sell.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by AlgoVenture
BTC trying to (temporarily) reverse the trend. Will it succeed?All eyes are currently on the potential inverse H&S that might be forming its right shoulder on this pullback, and if completed it could take the price to around 5300-5400 area which is the projected target of the pattern. As we've all noticed, when everyone expects something due to it being obvious on the chart, BTC tends to do the opposite, so don't put too much hope into this iH&S pattern. It's just an idea for now, so we can have it on our radar. The major trend is still down. A break of 4400 is still the main condition for those higher prices mentioned above, and without it, none of these patterns matter much. Nevertheless, we can't ignore (at least a temporary) reversal pattern forming for over a month now. The longer the time period over which the pattern forms, the more reliable it is and the larger the move it makes once (and if) completed. The key areas for this scenario are marked on the chart above. 3470-3400 zone must hold, otherwise, we are likely to see 3100s retested or even new lows. If we see a good reaction (ideally) from around 3560, that would be a first positive step towards the iH&S pattern completion. Note that 3650 was/is the minimum retracement necessary for this to play out. I see two ways to trade this: 1. Enter with a speculative position size in the "ideal entry zone" marked on the chart with a stop loss below 3400. 2. (safer, more conservative way) Wait for the price to breakout and close a candle above 4400 pivot point, then buy the breakout or the pullback of that move. This way you get less profits but a lot more reliability in your trade. It all depends on your trading style and risk apetite. Either way, stop loss and risk management is crucial here, due to the main trend still being down. You don't want to get caught in a long position if the main trend continues to the downside. Note that this is a 12h timeframe chart, so it may take days to play out.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by eyupium
7
Shorting From RetracementGBPJPY failed to breakout from the zone making three tops that provide sufficient resistance. Falling was accompanied by another attempt to move up, acting as retracement providing additional space to continue move further down. Weekly chart provide sign of piercing through lower structure - potential to further down move. Cumulatively nice opportunity to ride one more move down to the nearest structure approved by potential trend reversal and weekly timeframe confirmation.
Short
by winnie144
2
USDJPY long-term trading the USDJPY has made an upward movement in the longer term. This trend started on 26 May 2018 and the price has risen rapidly thereafter. The trend line (blue) was respected several times during this uptrend. Personally, I think that this uptrend will stop in the long term and make way for a downtrend. The price does not make new higher heights anymore and this has created a triangle pattern. The price is also close to a respected zone. This zone has been reached several times, but has never been broken. This has not been possible since 9 May 2017. Because the triangle is at a height and close to the '' short zone '', I think the price will go the other way soon. When the triangle is broken or the '' short zone '' is touched, we can take a short position. I currently expect some upcoming movement within the triangle. When it is broken, I expect the newdowntrend to start. I have chosen the TP (Target Profit) of 111,870. This is the first respected zone where a turnaround often occurs.
Short
by JvdB99
1
EURUSD upward move The EURUSD is currently in a symmetrical triangle (blue trendlines). I believe this will break in a short term. I expect that it will make an upward movement. As you can see, the Elliot wave has been applied. Here you can find point E in the lower part of the triangle. If the elliot analysis is correct, the triangle will break in the next movement. I expect an uptrend because the green zone is currently being respected several times. Price is pushed upward multiple times. This gives an extra indication that we should think about a upward movement. Also there is a engulfing bar appearing. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how this daily candle would close.These are motivations to believe that the EURUSD price will soon make an upward movement. If the analysis is correct, I would take a position with a TP at 1.15400 This is a level that is respected multiple times. So it is possible that this point can be a reversal point.
Long
by JvdB99
4
How divergence plays an important role in trend reversals.This is my very first time I am writing any idea about how I read the charts. So my first idea is going to be on Divergence and how it plays an important role in trend reversal. First thing first, trend never stays in one direction forever. Sometimes it moves up and sometimes it moves down but how do we know that in anytime of near future we are expecting a reversal. In the pic below, we can clearly see that on AUDUSD trend is massively down from arrow area and everyone is looking to sell this pair. And every time when this down trend pullbacks we get a better price to sell (as if we are getting a higher price to sell) but think for a minute, when everyone is looking to sell and waiting for a pullback to happen so they can join the massive downtrend who will be the buyer? And how long we can sell a currency? Obviously, it can't remain in one direction (sell in this case) forever. Now in the next picture notice one thing when the price starts to fall down we see a LL and LH and we start selling this AUDUSD pair then another LL and LH and another sell then another LL and LH and another sell. Now we all now that we are making a LL and LH so when market is making LL and LH who will be interested in buying? NO ONE... After first 4 big pushes down, notice one thing all trend pushes seem to be weaker than they were initially and pullbacks are coming in deep. When momentum starts to fade out that will be the first sign that market may REVERSE in near future. A healthy trend always have momentum and health in it. If momentum starts to fade out and trend starts to loose its health what happens that those trend pushes starts to become smaller and weaker and pullback starts to come in deep. This is when Macd comes in handy. In the next pic, you will see after being in a downtrend for so long when you get the first sign of trend is now loosing its power (momentum and health) how you can use macd to confirm. This pic shows that when we were making LL and LH, on Macd we were also getting the same thing, but at the very right bottom of the pic we can see that we had LL and LH but on macd, story was totally different, we had HH and HL so this is the 2nd sign of possible trend reversal and this is time when Macd comes in handy on finding the reversal with divergence. So, in order to confirm we just have to go 1 time frame lower which is 4h in this case to see either we have a HH and HL on 1 smaller tf or not. We can see in above pic after ranging for quite long on 4h we finally had a HH and HL and then the buyers started to kick in. After divergence, buyers came in hot.
Education
by ajwadsaleem
The moment we are all waiting for..Reversals take time. The Dollar Index has been bullsih most of 2018 and it is now showing signs of slowing down, consolidating and/or reversing to the downside. Ofcourse this will offer great opportunities for the dollar related currency pairs. Last week the trendline on the 4 hour chart got tested and rejected but at the end of the week it got broken again. There is a trend line on the bigger time frame coming up right after this one so we're nog jet in a downtrend. Over the coming weeks I'm expecting more dollar weaknes.
TVC:DXYShort
by krissur
GBPAUD LONG SETUPThere is a possibility of a GBPAUD long set up here. There is no technical pattern right now, so there is no trigger to take the trade but we are approaching a very important trend line and the bottom of a support zone Time to put GBPAUD on your watch list for the week to see if a reversal patter forms or we get a big Higher High - Higher Close when we hit the trendline. Thanks for the likes on my previous posts!! Also if you guys enjoy the content you can Follow me so I know you guys are interested!!! Thanks and Much Love<3
Long
by nick203