Trendreversal
Euro Usd trendConsidering the fundamental events set in motion on the closing day of the week; The Trump executive order ; DOW 's record performance, it is evident that the American Dollar is in the strong zone hence the contrary for the Euro Usd pair. Yet it has to be time for the technical correction. Many indicators including stochastics reveal that the pair is over sold and is about to make a short term bullish approach. Around 1.076 there seems to be very strong resistance. The Fibonacci ret confirm the pair touching 61.8% and now reversing up. The trend lines shown indicate the window in which the pair would most likely trade. Green and red lines are supports and resistances respectively.
EURGBP - Possible Head and Shoulders - WATCH THIS ONEDepending on how the candles behave on this one, we might be seeing a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, which means that this extended pattern that has played out over the last few months could signal a YEARS LONG trend reversal for Sterling against the Euro. Watch the candles over the next few days, and we might have our answer. Look for Pin Bars and Inside Weakness.
GBPJPY Longer term outlookHey Traders !
Feels like its been forever since I posted, markets have been providing me with little opportunity so there hasn't been much to post, and If I posted ever idea that I had, then this would be a signal service instead educational content.
Today I want to give you guys a look at GBPJPY. So I have been following this pair for quite a bit now and its been on a strong bullish move along with EURJPY and USDJPY. The reason I never thought of a short trade was because we were not at a major level of S/R. We were in the middle of no mans land and this is something that I talked about in our latest Forex Insider View Click here to check it out on youtube. So in the video I go over how I use specific candlestick formations to give me my reason for entry ONLY when we are pressing up against major S/R and how its important to be able to identify the difference.
The good thing about GBPJPY right now is that we are just starting to press up against a level of support now turned resistance, on top of that we have the 61.8 retracement in confluence with the 1.272 Inverted Extension, So now that we are pressing up, I can start looking for reasons to get in short, now keep in mind this would be a Counter trend Short without extended targets. It would only be a push down lower till we reach support and then continue onto new equity highs. Its possible you might see a double top on the daily so be careful for that as well, EURJPY just double topped and then made a move higher.
Keep in mind, these are IF/THEN predictions. Meaning, I am not predicting what the market will do, I am preparing myself for whatever the market decides to do. So I will not rationalize a short just because I think it might give us some temporary relief, I will only enter IF the trade hits all the checklists.
Hope this helps , Like always if you have any questions feel free to comment below !
SLV: time to invest in Silver? # SLV is downtrend & has no reversal sign yet.
# Good margin of safety as the price is low.
# First sign of trend reversal is when SLV make a "higher high" by breaking above $15.50, second sign is "higher low", which is above $13.
# (if) Pulling back to new uptrend line is considered as healthy.
# Early Buy Entry: Point A, 2nd Buy Entry: Point B
MM-Reversal-Probability-Index [MM-RPIDX]This indicator tries to show the probability of an impending reversal. It's using a number of different input signals and candle stick patterns and conditions:
6 different moving averages
Averages of moving averages
MACD
RSI
Stochastics
Keltner channels
Pin bar patterns
Engulfment patterns
The indicator is designed as an oscillator and treats positive values as a signal for an impending bearish reversal and negative points for an impending bullish reversal.
At the moment it includes 46 different conditions to calculate the overall index. The 46 conditions flow into 15 signal lines which are summarized to the overall reversal index.
This indicator is not just a simple line with a couple of peaks.
It’s designed to interactively work with it. It's got tons of tweaking options in the settings section.
Examples of usage:
Use it for primary reversal detection
Use it for reversal confirmation
Use it for candle stick pattern detection
Use alert levels to increase/decrease the number of reversal detections
Detect MACD crossings
Detect Moving Average crossings on different levels
Detect indecisive areas of sideway chopping
Examples of conditions:
is there a crossing of the MACD?
are there multiple MACD crossings?
are there any significant crossings of moving averages?
is the market chopping sideways?
are there any reversal relevant candle stick patterns?
did these patterns appear inside or outside the Keltner channels?
are these patterns confirmed by the subsequent candle?
was there a crossing of the %K and %D line of the stochastics in the last periods?
is or was the RSI in the overbought or oversold zone?
...
Concept:
Instead of watching 10 different signal lines of indicators and candle stick patterns simultaneously I wanted to have one indicator which aggregates all (or at least a lot of) the relevant information.
So the idea was to create an index and assign a specific amount of points to specific attributes or situations (e.g MACD crossed or pin bar candle stick pattern occurred and was confirmed by the subsequent candle and was outside the Keltner channels).
After gathering all the information (or points) everything is boiled down to one index.
Notice: there is no holy grail in TA!
USD Challenging New Lows Morning traders, interesting down move by the USD as it has pushed below recent lows and is headed for the most recent lower high.
A close below that would confirm further downside to the high low at 11840 Stops at the last high 11990.
Of course a failure to close below the last higher low does open a buying opportunity as we see the RSI headed for oversold territory. Lets see what happens.
DXY: Long term trend reversalI reccomend taking longs in DXY here, stops under 95.48, and risking 0.5-1% on this trade.
It's highly likely the trend will resume it's monthly pace, and head up, and make new all time highs, but for the time being, you can aim for everyone and their mother's stop losses at 97.57.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
ps: If interested in access to my private tuition and/or trading signals weekly newsletter and whatsapp signals, message me privately for details. I'm offering a discount on subscriptions currently.
AUDUSD: Strong uptrendThis is an update to my previous charts on AUDUSD (see the one where I shared a long entry for this pair in particular). The newer charts have been sharing analysis on it, and other Asian and Oceanic currencies, which I see as having amazing signs of strength, suggesting we have long term trend reversals, or at least major retracements in play.
There is a new mode forming as we speak, and if we close the week above 0.77102, the prospect of further uptrend continuation becomes more likely. I'm long AUD, and also long it against a variety of currencies (euro, pound, swiss franc), and I don't reccomend playing the short side in such a massive uptrend.
The level above is the next 'make or break' resistance, which will open the gate for the upper 0.8-0.9 range, possibly even parity during this year.
Each red line, is a vital level, that must see a close above, and then lows finding support there as we move forward, since these levels are where the sellers actively drove the pair down on multiple occasions.
If not long AUDUSD, you can enter any of the pairs I listed with a 3 ATR stop loss, or look to enter with your preferred strategy. I'm in with a conservative (3 atr stop) and a more aggressive stop loss position on each of them, which suits my risk profile, and lets me keep a core position, and add, without going overboard on the initial entries.
Keep in mind that the fundamentals favor a decisive moment ahead too, with a host of Chinese data coming out, as well as the IMF meeting tomorrow.
Remember that a stop loss is mostly, a way of measuring your position sizing, don't disregard the importance of position sizing strategies and you'll live a happy and healthy life as a trader. The main thing is knowing when you're wrong about the trade, to exit, and knowing when you're right, to add to it and let it run.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Selling Opportunity (H1)Hi Trader,
Thanks for checking out this trade idea. Appreciate the thumbs up!
This is highly correlated with the GBPAUD trade I just posted. It is the exact inverse of that trade setup.
See chart for entry and exit levels.
If you don't have a trading plan, please get one. The biggest help to my trading was when I REMOVED ambiguity in my decision making.
Good trading,
Luke
EURUSD- One Hour Trade Setups1 hourly and 4 hourly are heading toward a strong daily resistance area coupled with a supply area. Although we see the supply area tested many times, it is holding. Overall bearish daily outlook. The 1Hr has broken its steep uptrend, now we just wait for 4Hr trend line break. Once this is confirmed, we will look for the ideal 1hr retracement or breakout trade to the south.
Bull setup on the GbpUsdIt doesn't take a chart expert to see that the gbpusd is in a down trend, but there could be an excellent opportunity to go long on this pair. As you can see price action was making lower highs but the stochastic was making higher highs, this is a bullish setup. When you see this, it means with a high probability that the next leg down will be a bottom. Then the next leg down we get lower lows in price, but lower highs on the stochastic, which is classic divergence. These two things in and of themselves is not enough for me to go long, but i will be looking on the 1 hour chart this week for trend continuation setups to go long. "The market always wants to hurt the most people, and right now i hear everyone saying to short this pair."