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Trendreversal

CADCHF: potential long moveHere is my view on CADCHF- 1.A long position can be made now as we broke the DTL and now price is retesting it again + 4H 50EMA. It is riskier because the price has not yet broken the daily 50EMA and the current resistance zone (~0.69200), but it gives a slightly better entry for a long position 2.If you want to be more conservative, just wait for a breakout of the current resistance zone and Daily 50EMA and the retest of it for entry Here is how daily looks like:
Long
by JivkoXristov
Bull Bear Power Void with a Killer Exit IndicatorWelcome to the coffee shop everybody and this is your host and baristo Eric. the bull bear power void has had a massive update since the last time I have been in the shop. So thanks for joining me on this one. THE BACKGROUND: I have recalculated the background to show you when you are looking for Longs and when you are looking for short trades. It's simple enough and the background is either red or green to tell you early that the trend has changed. just because the background color is red doesn't mean enter short it means that a retest is coming and a Divergence is about to complete. The same thing goes for green. when it changes to Green it means that a retest is coming or that I Divergence is about to complete and you trade into that direction. The light blue filter is called the Volume regression moving average. this does a really good job of telling you exactly what's happening with volume as it's moving along. it calculates against the highs and lows of the immediately closed volume bars so when you break a previous high or a previous low then you know you have broken a range and you have maintained a new structure. breaking a previous high or previous low also means that you can either trade to the long side or to the short side. This is just an added confirmation to layer into your background and your volume bar colors. VOLUME BAR COLORS. Speaking of the colors of the volume bars. I've changed them to make them a little bit more intuitive for people. Now it's really simple. if you have dark colors like dark green and dark red then you know volume is moving to the upside. if you have light colors like light green and light red volume is moving to the downside. These colors are irrelevant to the location of the bar meaning it doesn't matter if the bar is liked or dark color above zero or below zero. if you get a dark color below zero you're still moving up anyway because up is always up and down is always down. the short of it is dark colors mean long light colors mean short. The final Clincher of the updates to the bull bear power void is another filter using a hull moving average calculation. in this oscillator it's shown as a purple moving average. this does an excellent job of telling you when a pullback is over or a trend is over or a trend has lost its momentum. it is the final layer of Confluence to tell you that the move you were in is over or it's on pause. the bottom line is that this purple moving average is to be used as an exit indicator not an entry indicator. When the light blue and the purple moving averages cross each other above closing volume or below closing volume is when you have a strong move in the opposite direction. These two moving averages combined are always pushing volume away from it. as you watch your charts you'll notice that primarily volume will exist inside of these two moving averages in other words you will have these two moving averages at the bottom of your panel volume will exist above them and then the zero level would be there if this is the case you have an uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CoffeeshopCrypto
16
$SPY $SPX $ES_F Kagi chart trend change $SPY $SPX $ES_F Analysis, Key levels, and Targets I honestly don’t use Kagi Charts enough… they are EXTREMELY efficient and powerful at showing trends and reversals without the noise of regular candlestick charts…. they are independent of time and only track price... Now I never trade with regrets, because I still did really well even trading against the trend lately, but if I had remembered to check the trusty kagi, well honestly, I still would have traded the same… perhaps its my bias due to fundamentals…. BUT the kagi chart is truly amazing and I will make a video tutorial on how to read it with some tips and tricks that will blow your mind. It's really a neat tool... I will make a video this week... AND, the trend just turned bearish on the kagi chart… 🐻... I suppose that was the whole point of this update...
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
5
The Ultimate Beginner’s Guide To Trend TradingMany traders utilize forex trend trading specifically to increase their profits from currency exchange. The possibility to take a big number of pip moves due to a strong, directional price movement, a high probability of profit, and exceptional signal accuracy are only a few of the benefits of trend trading. These are the factors that make trend trading possible for traders. In order to maximize price movement and minimize mistakes—which, no matter how hard one tries, will still happen occasionally—have let's a look at the fundamental algorithm of trend trading. What is a Trend? A trend involves a tendency for price to rise or fall over some time. There are two types of trends - bullish and bearish. In a bullish trend, the price makes high bases and higher tops. Thus, the trend line during a bullish trend acts as support. Bearish trends are the opposite of bullish trends. In this case, creates lower highs and lower lows on the chart. In this case, the bearish trend line can be drawn through the highs. There are various trend indicators, but one of the easiest and most effective ways to analyze trends is to use trend lines. A trend line is a diagonal line on a chart that connects several peaks or bases on the chart. The main function of a trend line is to act as support or resistance for price movement. We see a bearish trend line that acts as a resistance line when the price is moving down. The arrows point to places where the price is testing the trend line as resistance. On the seventh price interaction with the bear trend, we get a bullish breakout. Price closes above the bearish trend line, implying that the trend is broken out and price direction is likely to change. In a trending market, two types of systematic price movements are important for understanding the trend. These two types of price movements are called momentum and corrections. A trend momentum is a price movement that occurs after interacting with a trend line and after the price bounces in the direction of the trend. Trend momentum leads to large price movements over a relatively shorter period. Corrective price movements follow the momentum and return the price to the trend. A correction on the chart is not as attractive to trade. Traders without sufficient trading experience should stay out of the market when the price is in a correction phase. The reason for this is that corrections are relatively smaller and often last longer than momentum. As you can see, price registers higher highs and higher lows, indicating that there is a bullish trend on the chart. Note that trend momentum leads to relatively large price movements in the direction of the trend. The third correction on the chart has about the same duration as the last momentum and later leads to a trend breakout. How Do You Find Trends? We already know that an uptrend consists of ascending highs and lows. And a downtrend consists of descending highs and lows. But what if you see a chart that looks like this? Is it the end of a downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend? Or is the price in a trading range? There is a problem in determining trends if you use higher highs and lows - this approach will always be subjective. So use a 200-period Moving Average (MA) to determine exactly what the trend is in the market right now. Depending on the time frame, the market can move in different trends. Downtrend on a Daily chart. UPtrend on a Daily chart. It would be a mistake to try to trade trends in different time frames. Instead, focus only on the main time frame and trade only in it. However, your trend trading can improve if you analyze charts of different time frames. What types of trends are there? Most traders believe that a trend consists of higher highs and lows. But that's not enough, because trends come in all kinds of forms. Some are better to trade with breakout strategies and some are better to enter only on pullbacks. There are three types of trending markets, which we will get to know. Strong Trends Buyers control the price and it is moving steadily upwards, there is only a little pressure from the sellers. This type of trend will have small pullbacks - around the 20MA level. In some cases, this type of trend will be so strong that it will move up without any pullbacks. It will not be easy to enter this type of trend because corrections will be too weak or there will not be any. So, the best thing would be to try to catch this type of trend at the beginning of its movement and enter it on its breakdown. If the trend has already gained strength, it is possible to switch to a smaller time frame and look for entry points on the pullback there. Regular Trends Buyers are still in control of the price, but sellers are more active. This is due to someone locking in their profits or entering against the trend. This type of trend will have pullbacks to the 50 MA level. Regular trends can also be entered on a level breakout, but you must be prepared psychologically to withstand a possible strong pullback to the broken level. You can always enter this type of trend later on its pullback to 50 MA. Weak Trends Buyers and sellers are fighting for control, with the buyers slowly starting to gain the upper hand. Price will move in large pullbacks beyond the 50 MA. Soon the previous trend may change direction. Therefore, the best strategy is to enter the market at support and resistance levels. Where Should I Place a Stop Loss in Trend Trading? There are three logical places to place Stop Loss in trend trading: behind the Moving Averages, behind the previous pullback, and the dynamic trend lines. Moving Averages In a market with a strong trend, the price tends not to go over 20 MA. Thus, you should put your Stop Loss below 20MA. If the trend is calmer and does not go behind the 50 MA, place your Stop behind the 50 MA line. Previous pullback You can always place a Stop Loss below the boundary of the previous pullback of the trend. Trend lines To avoid false triggering of your Stops, you can use the technique of placing a Stop Loss at a distance of one or two ATRs from the Moving Averages, the previous pullback, or the trend lines. Then your potential losses can increase, but your Stops will be well protected from accidental price spikes. Peculiarities of Trend Trading Before you start trend trading, you must first recognize a potential trend. Experienced traders will tell you that "The trend is your friend!" because the profits from a trending instrument are much higher and such trades can involve less risk. Let's discuss a few trading techniques for potential trends on the chart. As we already know, if the highs and lows of price are rising, we are in a bullish trend. If the highs and lows are decreasing, we are in a bearish trend. In all other cases, we have no trend conditions. Every two points on the chart can be connected by a straight line. However, if the third point is on the same line, then we have a trend. Thus, trend confirmation usually comes after price tests the trend at the third touch and bounces off of it. When you see the bounce, you can enter the market trying to catch the new trend. Different Approaches to Trend Trading Trend trading can be divided into two approaches: Systematic trading; Discretionary trading. Systematic trading Systematic trading clearly defines all the rules you must follow in your trading: entry point, profit taking place, risk management, and trade management. Most of these actions can be automated by building automated models that are based on technical analysis with limited intervention by the trader. This approach is widely used by large hedge funds. The trader can only determine the level of risk and markets to be traded. Discretionary Trading Discretionary trading has less clear-cut rules that a trader must follow. This approach requires constant participation in trades and is widely used by individual traders. Although discretionary trading is more subjective, it is still based on a trading plan. Trend Trading Strategy A trading strategy for trend trading is only 1/3 of the component of your success. Without proper risk management and discipline, even the best trading strategy will not help you trade profitably. To develop a trend trading strategy for yourself, you will have to answer the following questions: What time frame will I use? What will be my risk level for each trade? What markets will I trade? Where will be my entry point? Where will I exit if the price goes against my position? Where will I take my profits if the price goes my way? In practice, it would look something like this: If the price is above the 200 Moving Average, the trend is uptrending. In an uptrend, we expect two price touches in the area between the Moving Averages with periods of 20 and 50. We open a long trade on the third test. Stop Loss will be placed at a distance of 2 ATR from our entry point. If the price goes in your favor, the trade will be closed when the price closes outside the 50 MA. Alternative scenario: If the 50 EMA is above the 100 EMA, look for an opportunity to open a long position. We wait until the price closes above the 50-day high. If the price closes above the 50-day high, we open a trade on the next candle. Stop Loss is placed at a distance of 3 ATR from the last price maximum. Never move Stop Loss against your position. Trade as many markets with low correlation as possible. Risk no more than 1% of your capital on any single trade. Trading Pullbacks: How to Enter the Market with the Trend? A pullback is a short-term price movement against a trend. What are the advantages and disadvantages of trading on a pullback? A pullback gives us a good entry point with a good risk/reward ratio. However, we can miss a strong trend because sometimes trends move for a long time without a pullback. We also trade against the current price momentum. Since most trading instruments stay within range boundaries or consolidation phases most of the time and market trends are only seen about 20-30 percent of the time, finding a settled trend and a good pullback can be a challenge. As a trader who trades on pullbacks, you have to act like a sniper. You have to wait, then wait some more, sometimes for hours, if not days, before you enter the market. You need to find the entry point at which the price is likely to resume its movement in the prevailing trend. Here are the three basic steps you need to take to successfully trade pullbacks with the trend: Identify an existing trend. Identify potential reversal areas or market conditions where the price may resume its trending movement. Find a high-quality trading signal to enter the market that involves a high risk/reward ratio. Pullbacks and Trend Trading We have already mentioned the wise axiom "the trend is your friend." However, professional traders also know that the trend is your friend "until it ends." Most of the time, financial markets remain in equilibrium, where major market participants have access to all the major news events and information. As a result, the price fluctuates slightly during the day, but in the absence of any new information, it usually does not make a particularly strong directional move. However, after the release of important news, if the actual data diverges from the market consensus, we may see sharp price movements because this is where the market tries to interpret the new information to find a new equilibrium. Bulls and bears sometimes have unique interpretations of news data, and they are invested in their interpretations. When most market participants or even a few large institutional players think the price should rise or fall, this kind of supply and demand imbalance can cause prices to spike or fall. You can see how pullbacks approach the previous consolidation zone and serve as price reversal points on the chart. Pullbacks often test previous support and resistance levels. Since traders know that these levels previously acted as anchor points, a large number of pending orders are accumulated around these price levels. As a result, when the pullback reaches these price levels, and if there have been enough orders in the direction of the trend, the market resumes its movement. Otherwise, the support or resistance levels are violated and a trend reversal may occur in the market. While it may be relatively easy to identify a trend, measuring the likelihood of a trend continuing after a pullback, is a bit more difficult. Nevertheless, it is quite possible if you apply the right technical analysis tools and have a comprehensive strategy for trading on pullbacks. For most new traders, it is best to trade on pullbacks rather than looking for countertrend opportunities. What is a Pullback? It is impossible to predict 100% when a pullback will end. But it has to be based on something. It can't just hang in the air. It may be: -A previous resistance level becomes support. -Resistance becomes support. -Support that became resistance. -Support becomes resistance. -Dynamic trend lines. -The pullback to the dynamic trend lines. -Confirmation for entry into the trade we get when the candle closes in the direction of the current trend. This increases the positive probability of our trade. However, sometimes this can cause you to miss a good trend movement. So there is no definite answer here: to wait for a confirming candle or not. If the price is above the 200 EMA then the trend is bullish. Wait for the price to return to its support area. Then expect a bullish candle in the direction of the trend. Place a Stop Loss below the low of a reversal candle. Take Profit at the nearest level. The best entry points will be called structural - these are places where several conditions for entering the trade will coincide. The price has approached the resistance level, which previously acted as support. The price touches dynamic trend lines. A bearish pin bar appears. The price touches a strong support level. The 200 EMA also passes at this point. An absorption pattern appears. The more structural factors combine in one place on the chart, the greater the probability of a profitable trade. However, the number of such sets with all structural factors will be quite small. Therefore, it will be best to find a balance and enter the market with 2 to 4 structural factors. Trend Trading Strategy on Pullbacks The first step is to recognize the trend. If the price is making higher highs and higher lows, we are seeing an uptrend. On the other hand, if the price makes lower highs and lower lows, we are seeing a downtrend. You can also use the two Moving Averages and confirm the trend when there is a crossover between them, and use them to confirm a pullback. The instrument is in an uptrend. By adding two Moving Averages, the 13-period EMA and the 21-period EMA, we can get additional confirmation. When the fast EMA crossed the slow EMA, we could see a pullback. Remember, however, that the Moving Average crossover acts as a lagging indicator. By the time it generates a signal, the market may have moved slightly in the direction of the prevailing trend. As a result, the risk/reward ratio in your trade may also increase. Consequently, it would be much better if you tried to identify a potential reversal area during a pullback and place your trades using more efficient methods to enter the market based on price action signals. One of the main principles of technical analysis is that old resistance turns into new support and old support turns into new resistance. Using this principle, you can quickly determine where the market may reverse during a pullback. Old support and resistance levels provide a great place to place your limit orders on the side of the prevailing trend. You can also use another time-tested entry method. In this case, we are referring to the use of major Fibonacci retracement levels. After the first uptrend, the price pulled back to the 23.6% Fibonacci level and then resumed the uptrend. After the second uptrend was completed, the price pulled back to the Fibonacci 38.2% Fibonacci recovery level, after which the trend resumed. Major Fibonacci levels act as hidden support and resistance zones in the market. Once you have learned how to successfully identify the trend, the pullback, and the potential area where the pullback may end, you can look for an entry point into the market. A simple pin bar or outside a bar near previous support or resistance, or near a Moving Average, can be an excellent confirmation that a pullback is ending and the trend is about to resume. When the Moving Average and the downtrend line intersect, it confirms that the market is in a downtrend. Once the downtrend was confirmed, you could tell that the 1.5750 level was acting as significant resistance as the price bounced back from that level several times. However, instead of blindly entering the market near the reversal, we waited for a bearish pin bar, which confirmed the end of the pullback. Trend Trading Strategy with MACD, Trend Line, and Volume Indicator The MACD indicator consists of two Moving Averages, which interact with each other above and below the 0 levels. When the faster line overcomes the slower line in a bearish direction, being above 0, we expect the price to start trending in a bearish direction. When the faster line overcomes the slower line in the bullish direction, being below 0, we expect the price to start trending up in the bullish direction. The MACD also has a histogram. This histogram shows the exact difference between the fast line and the slow line. If the histogram is positive, the faster line is above the slower line, the long signal. If the histogram is negative, the faster line is below the slower line, the short signal. Divergence is also good for determining the divergence between the price and the indicator. If the price increases and the MACD decreases, we have a bearish divergence, which indicates that the trend is likely to reverse. The same is true in the opposite direction for a bullish divergence pattern. If the price is declining and the MACD is increasing, we have a bullish divergence. One way to trade trends is to combine the trend lines, MACD, and volume indicator. We can try to match signals from the MACD indicator and a potential emerging trend line and perform a volume analysis. Imagine that you see an upward price movement on the chart. At the same time, the MACD is signaling a bullish crossover below 0, which confirms that the price is rising. In this case, we can expect a continuation until we see the opposite signal from the MACD. A Stop Loss should be placed below the recent swing low. The same technique works for bearish trends. If the price starts to consider lower tops and lower bases, we use a bearish MACD cross above 0 to open a short position. The chart begins with a bullish MACD crossover. Note that during the crossover and continuation thereafter, the price is in a range. However, during the horizontal movement, trading volumes are constantly increasing. Suddenly the price creates a higher top, breaking the level of the previous top. This indicates a possible rise in price, and after a short correction, there is an opportunity to open a long position. The price continues to rise with two momentum movements and their corresponding corrections. The MACD indicator is now in its upper area, indicating that we may see the end of this bullish trend shortly. Nevertheless, the position should be held until the MACD lines show a bearish crossover as indicated in the trading strategy. Tips for Trend Trading In order not to be deceived, do not use time frames lower than H1. Most often in M1, M15, etc. we just see market noise, imitating a storm of market activity, and changing many times a day. Always check the trend you have detected in a higher time frame (for example, if you see a bullish trend on H1 - switch to D1 and check your conclusions). If the trends coincide - good, this is a signal for entry, if they diverge - do not enter the market. Professionals use trends that are evident at least on the semi-annual chart, even better - the annual chart (it is visible on W1). The rule is simple: a true, time-tested trend does not change quickly and focusing on false trends and breakouts - is counterproductive and unprofitable. Having chosen a trend - be faithful to it, to a reasonable limit. Do not react to the usual market volatility, "chattering", constantly provoking you to the wrong actions. Allow profits to grow. For example, all of 2017 EUR/USD was in a bullish trend, and traders who were able to use this (simple, in general) understanding - made good profits. If you still went against the trend - you need to know how to "flip". If the price goes more than 200 pips against your open positions - can't be helped, there is no arguing with the market, open in the right direction, take a loss (liquidate a losing position) and earn more than you lost. Summary When trend trading, be sure to include economic news in your arsenal. Using only technical analysis will not give a complete picture of what is happening on the market. Use trend trading and you will see that forex really brings profit. And of course to be successful with trend trading you need practice and remember that profitability depends very much on the broker you choose!
Education
by FOREXN1
18
Is AMD's recent rally coming to an end?Perhaps. AMD has rallied for the past 8 trading sessions. The first session was on January 6 and ended with a key reversal (new low, closed near the high). Today, another key reversal has occurred (new high, closed on the low). This would indicate that AMD is likely to reverse direction and head lower. I'm going to say it will reach 64 by the end of January or sometime in February. I'm usually a bit too optimistic, so I'm giving myself some breathing room. AMD tends to correlate with Invesco's QQQ ETF which is heavy in technology stocks, so I often check to see if QQQ is leading the way. As it turns out, QQQ had an even more prominent key reversal today. To me, this just confirms what I think is going to happen. Of course, I could be wrong. Not all key reversals work the way you want them to (see the red dots in November). We have just reached a 2-year-old support level that may now become a resistance level between 72.80 and 73.75 (the thick blue line and thin black line). I will be watching closely. If AMD doesn't respect the key reversal, it could break through that area and revisit it a few times like it did in November and December. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by cdnbuzzard
Similarities between Trend Reversals and Driving a CarHappy New Year🎆, Traders👋 On this post, I'm going to share the similarities between trend reversals and driving a car. This post would help you if; -You are struggling with trend reversals -You tend to make early entries e.g. you stopped out and the market moves in your favorable way Driving cars For those who drive cars, these are obvious things, but let me just explain what you are gonna do when you turn the corner. Take a look at the left side of the image drawing below. When you make a turn, you; (1) Gradually slow down as you approach a corner (2) Turn the corner at the lowest speed (3) Accelerate as you exit the corner You do them naturally without thinking anything if you have a driver license. Now, let’s take a look at what is gonna happen when trends reverse. Trend reversals Look at the right side of the chart above. This illustrates when a downtrend reverses to an uptrend. (1) Price going down (2) Stop (3) Price going up (1) When a bear market or downtrend is in progress, prices keep going down, making lower highs and lower lows. At the beginning of the downtrend, it usually starts with a sharp slope, but as the prices go down, the speed also gets slow and it becomes a gentle decline. (2) When a downtrend comes to the end, it; -stops making lower lows -creates a equal low (aka W bottom) -make a slightly higher low(this is also another formation of W bottom) -becomes a range These are the signs when downtrends end. (3) After the market makes a stop at the bottom, uptrends starts, usually breaking a range and/or creating a new high. The speed of the trend gradually accelerates as if a car exits from a corner. It looks super simple, easy and obvious in writing, however, in reality, many beginner traders and/or traders who are struggling with trend reversals tend to buy at (1). Why? The reason is simple. They want the bottom. When greed dominates your emotion, these things do not exist in your brains anymore. You know what happens then? They got stopped out and the market moves as you expect. This is like you are approaching a corner without reducing speed and end up with falling off a cliff. Cars cannot immediately stop, neither do trends Just like cars cannot stop(or make a turn) suddenly, trends do not change that easily. You would be able to eliminate unnecessary entries and/or FOMO entries, simply asking these questions to yourself. “Isn’t it too late to buy at least when I see the market makes a stop?”
Education
by FX365_Thailand
(BTC-USD) Possible Trend Reversal (August 22)Patterns from other cycles seem to be repeating, after a new ATH from each cycle the price heads towards the green area where the EMA50 is, making a support. The price rises, but does not resist the selling pressure and breaks the EMA50W, retests the same average in the yellow area but now as resistance. Immediately crashes and reach EMA200, break the same average, but it has a fast recovery and reaches the accumulation zone in the blue area where historically it was the best zone to buy. Bitcoin goes back up and hits a new ATH and the cycle repeats. It worked so far, but several external factors can influence some values, so don't take my analysis for granted.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wojak19
1