BTCUSD - DAILY CLOSING BELOW 65'500 !Despite an intraday high reached yesterday @ 66'340, the BTCUSD failed to close above the top range of the "RED ZONE" @ 65'500 mentioned in my previous analysis !!! .
Such kind of price action triggered, as expected, further downside selling pressure which pushed the BTCUSD towards a low so far of 60'406, very close to the psychological support level of 60'000.
This recent downside move, and it is obvious, triggered, on very short term time frames (5 minutes) a RSI bullish divergence which pushed the BTCUSD slightly up; nevertheless, it should be seen, for the time being, as
a corrective move only, in an ongoing bear trend which took recently place, calling for lower levels...
Indeed, looking at the 4 hours chart, the clouds have been clearly broken, confirmed also by a downside breakout of the lagging line ; in order to neutralise this ongoing selling pressure, the BTCUSD, should
on this time frame, quickly recover above the clouds zone which is currently between 64'500 and 65'500, the latter level being the top range of the RED ZONE previously mentioned.
CONCLUSION :
The 60'000 important support level is likely to be tested soon and a failure to hold sustainably above it would trigger a downside move acceleration toward the next significant support area, which is @ 57'765 on a daily basis
analysis.
On a weekly basis, the Tenkan-Sen, which should be seen as an important indicator support level, is @ 54'295.
Again, monitor closely, intraday price action on shorter time frames, which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) such as bullish divergence or bearish convergence which will validate or invalidate my analysis, allowing you to act accordingly
Trendreversalinprogress
BTCUSD - W1 - SHOOTING STAR + DOJI !WEEKLY (W1)
Prior week a "SHOOTING STAR" had been triggered which has been followed, last week by a "DOJI" which is adding further pressure to the downside
as an uncertainty and indecision is growing...
So what next ?
Well, in looking in this weekly picture, the first significant support level @ 58'100 has been tested with an intraweek low seen last week @ 57'500.
As long as the BTCUSD stays on a weekly closing above 58'100, it is OK for a the time being.
A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF 58'100 WOULD PUT THE FOCUS ON THE 53'200-52'300 TRADING RANGE !!!
Interesting to note that the top of weekly clouds support area is around 43'300 which is also the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 28'600-66'994,
June-October rally.
DAILY (D1)
Looking briefly at the daily picture, the ongoing downtrend channel is intact, and levels to watch in this time frame are the following :
UPSIDE : 63'000
DOWNSIDE : 60'000
A daily closing level, either above 63'000 or below 60'000 would open potentially the door for a 4'000 points move, targeting respectively a retest of former
high around 67'000 and a move towards 56500/56'000 on the downside.
4 HOURS (H4)
Watch the clouds !
Have a great week.
Take care and all the best.
Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - W1 - BEARISH ENGULFING !Weekly (W1)
After a RSI bearish divergence detected the week before, the last week price action triggered a "Bearish Engulfing pattern" which should be seen as a second
warning signal calling for a trend reversal !
Indeed, looking back we can see 2 clear trends and in monitoring the ongoing uptrend we can easily see the failure to confir m an upside breakout of the ongoing
uptrend channel.
So, looking forward, it is likely to see further downside towards 1.4850 % first (38.2 % Fib ret & Tenkan-Sen), ahead of 1.4170 % (50% & Kijun-Sen).
Mid-Bollinger Band, slightly below and currently @ 1.40 % should again be seen as the barometer indicator, having in mind the following mood :
Above 1.4000 % bullish (yield) and below 1.4000 % ( bearish yield)
Interesting to note that a failure to stay and hold above 1.4000 % on a weekly closing basis would confirm a downside breakout of this ongoing uptrend channel and potentially
open the door for a new downtrend move, calling for 1.35 % - 1.25 %.
On the upside, only a clear breakout of the former high @ 1.7060 would neutralise the downside risk and would open the door for higher level towards 1.80-1.90 (former congestion top)
Daily (D1) :
Failure to recover both above TS and Mid Bollinger band on a daily closing basis should also be seen as a negative signal, calling for further downside. In addition, the 10 Years US Treasury
is currently flirting with the Kijun-Sen important level support @ 1.550 %.
A daily closing level below 1.55 % would also add further selling pressure (yield) which would open the door for the levels above mentioned in my W1 analysis.
On this time frame, very interesting to note that the clouds support area coincides with the Fibonacci retracement, 1.4170 % and 1.3480 %, being respectively the 50 % and 61.8%.
CONCLUSION :
Watch the clouds on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation of the scenarios above mentioned.
H 4 : below the clouds
H1 : bottom of the clouds under attack
M30, M15, M5 : below the clouds
Do you like my analysis ? If yes, do not hesitate to like it and if it is not done yet, please do not forget to add Ironman8848 in your following list. Many thanks in advance
All the best and take care.
Ironman8848 :-)
BTCUSD - H4 - H & S IN PROGRESS !This time the clouds did not hold ...
An Head and Shoulder formation is in progress and if this is confirmed, the technical target would be @ 51'436.
Therefore, price action over the coming hours will be, once again, very important to look at carefully.
Indeed, only a clear recovery above the clouds (around 63'000, already mentioned in my previous analysis !) would neutralise this ongoing bearish mode.
Intermediate support levels @ 56'525, 53'292 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50'058 ( 39'590-66994 rally)
RSI is again below 50.
Looking briefly at the daily picture, after having failed to upside breakout the Tenkan-Sen, we can see a "BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN" triggered yesterday and in this time frame, in order, also to stabilise and neutralise,
the ongoing downside risk, we need to see a daily closing above 61'700 which would, at least, trigger a piercing line !
On the downside, a daily closing below the Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 59'000) would put an additionnal selling pressure and would open the door for the levels previously mentioned.
Interesting to note that the 53'292-50'058 coincides with the daily support clouds area.
On shorter time frame (H1), we are currently seeing a "corrective* recovery, having in focus 61'330, 61791 ahead of 62'253, the latter coinciding roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance in this H1 time frame.
should we go higher then the 63'000, as previously mentioned would be the pivot level to look at very carefully.
Have a nice trading day.
Take care
Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4/H1 - MAGICAL CLOUDS !H4 :
Once again the clouds acted perfectly well on both sid e, in rejecting, respectively
a downside breakout attempt around 60'000 and more recently an upside breakout
around 63'600.
In addition, price action on the top of the clouds, triggered a "BEARISH ENGULFING"
pattern.
Ongoing downtrend channel still in place and clouds area should be seen as a barometer
for further development.
Indeed, IMPLICATIONS a clear breakout of :
1) UPSIDE : 63'000/63'500 (former congestion top) would open the door for ---> a retest of ATH
2) DOWNSIDE : 61'500/61'000 (MBB & KS cluster and clouds support zone) would put the focus on ---> former
low @ 59'500 ahead of lower levels; 56'525 is the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 39'590-66'994 rally and 55'147 is
the Kijun-Sen or base line !
H1
Price action switched from an uptrend channel to an ongoing downtrend channe l and this change has been
triggered by a "doji" which has been confirmed straight away by a long black candle (bearish engulfing)
Currently below both MBB and TS and flirting with the KS important support level in this H1 time frame.
A failure to hold above 62'763 would directly put the focus on the 62'000 area, ahead 61'600 and 61'000 (the latter
level being the bottom of the H1 clouds support zone.
In order to neutralise this ongoing downside move price action, the BTCUSD should quickly recover above 63'000 and hold sustainably on a closing basis; this
would temporary neutralise the current ongoing selling pressure.
Do you like my analysis ?
If yes, please do not forget, to like it and to add me on your following list :-)
Many thanks in advance.
Have a nice trading day and all the best-
Take care
Ironman8848
NASDAQ 100 : SOMETHING IS COOKING - TREND REVERSAL IN PROGRESSD1 : Recent price action is showing a potential trend reversal in progress (below MBB)
W1 : Dark cloud cover in progress (to be confirmed on a weekly closing basis)
M1 : Dojipattern in progress which should also be confirmed on monthly closing on Friday
Wa