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Trends

The 3 market stagesIntroducting something I never saw anywhere, there is 3 market states. All the sideways trash which is some sort of limbo between phases is not interesting and falls into the 1rst category. ****************** 1- Reversal ****************** In all shapes and sizes There are all sorts of bottoms you can specialize in, usually I think chasing v shape reversals can be pretty stupid as is chasing bottoms in a diagonal trend with lots of pullbacks and as just chasing bottom patterns with not other rules and no bias whatsoever on the price. "Averaging in" is not stupid, it is on another level of mental disability, it's not even the same space time continuum as stupid. ****************** 2- Trend ****************** - If a trend is really too weak it will go in the (1) category, as "other". I would consider it sideways, or uninteresting. Speculators are slaves to strong moves. We have nothing to do operating in lame trends. - Trends can be of average strength, there will be many semi-deep pullbacks. - Trends can be strong, with small pullbacks, seems obvious what the first rules are here. If a trend is vertical then I do not count it in this cat, but as (3). ****************** 3- Pamp ****************** This is when every one gets very scared and every one is saying that it is the end, every one is ultra bearish/bullish, on the downside it is the absolute collapse that will never recover and everyone is very euphoric or making biblical apocalypse calls. Including me. Oh especially me. How can someone not love those? As ridiculous as it sounds, with a few exceptions (chf...) people do not get wiped out by those in general, they get scared and get out quick usually and it rarely goes that far. No, how they get really destroyed in a single investment, it's pathetic, it's when the price is slowly drifting against them. They have all the time in the world to think about it but not once does their brain go "uh there is a trend in the opposite direction, probably not a good idea to fight it". Alot even go against it on purpose, some "rsi" oversold or some other stupid reason, and since it is weak they think, well "think" is a big word here, that the bulls or bears (whoever is in the main trend) are weakened and it can easilly reverse. It can keep going forever, it often ends in a parabolic move that goes very far very fast and scares them, and it is a pure coinflip if and when the price will get back to their noobish entry (entries as they often "average down"). Parabolic moves always get me euphoric. When I am short on something and it is going down parabolically it will always be going to zero. I am always euphoric. Oh and of course I WILL NEVER EVER EVER EVER YOU HEAR ME HOLD A BAG GOING AGAINST ME. I'd much rather die. Vertical pumps are the best things in the world. Oh and this is when all the dumb money suckers get excited and want to buy, but wait there's more. They learned their lesson, alot of them, and do not fomo, oh most certainly not! Let's buy the pullback NOW, NOOOW of all times. Let's ignore all pullbacks in the trend and buy the pullback in the final move which is when it reverses 🤣 Putting it all in place with some examples I think I can sum up how I think one should approach those: 1- Reversals: Very specific rules, very picky 2- Trends: Buy pullbacks 3- Pumps: Fomo in After recognizing what state we are (probably) in (with 1 being very "maybe" but might have some opportunities sometimes"), you look for patterns and so on, apply your rules specific to that state + to your opinion + to the certain currency/commodity + the strategy + and so on. A reversal rule that makes sense could be to ONLY catch falling knives, yes yes. Looking for bottoms in slow chugging trends is mind bogglingly stupid, they just continue. When I want to buy a double bottom it better be at the end of a parabolic move. Some time rules are important for example... "Bla Bla Bla if it works for some" SHOW ME. Show me the people making money with absolute trash tier sideways. Never met one, never heard of one, only ones that recommend this are "trading eductors" and "I've been trading for 3 months and made money". Experts at making mistakes: crypto clowns Anything can be a reversal... I want to explain something before ending this: VOLATILITY ==> The quality or state of being volatile: such as. a : a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably price volatility the volatility of the stock market. b : a tendency to erupt in violence or anger the volatility of the region the volatility of his temper. What it does not mean: "Price went down". Of course they are using it as an euphemism now... They call vertical moves down "volatility" when in fact those moves have the least volatility in them. Nice and steady one way thing. A few ending words... I vow to never stop fomoing into parabolic moves and never stop making armageddon calls. Every thing goes to zero until I get stopped out.
by MrRenev
3
ADA - Looking to accumulate. Correction Time?Just to make things clear I am a holder of ADA but I do have some on the exchange to accumulate. I have a small amount chilling right now in BTC aiming to rebuy back lower as it retraces. If it moons, I still hold some so, not an issue. I've already ridden this wave up 115% so far so looking to accumulate now on the downturn. The target level of the main buying would be the 618 levels of the fib however, patience required. If this is the end of the alt-season push we should get some nice extras. Happy Hunting
Short
by CryptoMobster
1
GBP/JPY LONG Top-Down Technical Analysis: The monthly time frame shows a strong bullish signal Weekly also is bullish biased rather than bearish as candles are making higher highs and higher lows Coming to the daily time frame we can clearly see how the trend has switched from bearish to bullish as soon as we formed a double bottom and broke the previous lower high formed. Now as we created a new high , price should come and retrace at a certain level (most likely around 133.500-fib 61.80% where we see a lot of confluence), thus creating a new support (new higher low) to continue its bullish movement. In the 4-Hour time frame, price was bouncing within the channel until it broke out of it to the downside so now, as mentioned earlier, this movement shows that price is more likely to retrace at lower levels to create a new support and continue its overall bullish movement. Target Profit 1: 1st purple zone at fib -27% Target Profit 2: highest purple zone or at fib -61.80% (depends on the price movement...though safer at -61.80%) *Keep in mind that fundamental analysis may disrupt price action at any given time, specially with sudden news being announced and creating a new sentiment in the market.
Long
by YerwantKansabedian
4
Don't fight the trendThis is not trading advice, nor is it educational. Therefore don't read it and just go do something else. This is a chart of TSLA and I'm using it to make a point. Do not fight the trend. This may sound like the most obvious thing and yet the majority of failed predictions from "analysts" on this site are ones against the current trend. Anyone who has shorted Tesla knows this all too well. The most shorted company in the world, the biggest unicorn company in the world (in my own personal view) and all the shorts get their asses handed to them time and time again. The fundamentals may be crap, the technicals may look bad and yet if it's going up either go with it or stay away. Trading is a probabilities game and the probability that a trend will continue is generally a lot higher than crashing down in flames due to some resistance level or whatnot. I hope that some people learn from this and save themselves much unnecessary pain.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Svetul4o
3
QUANTUM SLOWNESS - WHAT NEXT?Hopefully this post is both educational and entertaining. I was having a discussion on line about the advantages of quantum speed trading - and how it has a greater power than the human brain. For sure it is more powerful at number crunching. But quantum slowness is about trends! Look at the lovely 15 min trend. No big muscle computing power required. Just your plain slow eyes. If you had hugged that 15 min amber trend line on the break out of bad news, you would have been sitting very happy, after 24 hours. So - true trend-followers do not care about brute force computing power. The human mind is superior for trends. Any arguments? Some will be asking me what's next? How would I know? I don't have any ownership of the future. Ask your friendly guru out there - not me! :) :) Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3