TrendsThe trend represents the directional movement of prices and plays an essential role in most technical trading systems. Technical analysis differentiates between trending and non-trending markets, also called flat trending markets. Trending markets can be either moving upwards or downwards. The upward-moving market is called the bull market, while the downward-moving market is called the bear market. Normally, a market is considered to be in an uptrend when the price reaches higher peaks and higher troughs. On the contrary, the market is regarded to be in a downtrend when the price reaches lower troughs and lower peaks. The non-trending market occurs when there is no significant uptrend or downtrend, and the price moves within a certain range. Thus, the flat trending market is notorious for its sideways-moving price action.
Key takeaways:
Trends can vary in length and are classified into four main categories: primary, secondary, minor, and intraday.
The primary trend is the most significant trend, lasting for months or years. It's characterized by the overall direction of the market.
The secondary trend opposes the primary trend and usually lasts for weeks or months.
Identifying trends is crucial for technical traders. Methods range from simple tracking of recent lows and highs to more complex mathematical formulas.
Trend classification
Trends tend to be of different lengths. According to these lengths, trends fall into four main categories: primary trend, secondary trend, minor trend, and intraday trend. The primary trend is the only inviolable trend and lasts for a long period, usually months or years. The secondary trend runs counter to the primary trend and is often measured in weeks or months. Further, the minor trend is measured in days, and the intraday trend is represented merely by daily fluctuations in price.
The primary trend
The primary trend can be subdivided into three distinctive phases. The first phase of the primary uptrend begins with the revival of investors' confidence from the prior primary downtrend. That is followed by the second phase, in which asset prices increase in response to growing corporate earnings. In the third stage, speculation becomes the dominant force driving markets higher. This environment, when asset prices are rising on the hopes, dreams, and expectations of individual investors, tends to foreshadow the beginning of the primary downtrend. Its first phase commences with the abandonment of hopes and dreams upon which investments were made. That is followed by selling pressure due to falling corporate earnings in the second phase, which later escalates into panic selling in the third stage.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration displays the weekly chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) for the period between late 2001 and 2008. The primary bull market began after the bottom of the “dotcom” bubble and lasted until the peak of the real estate and credit crisis in 2007.
Illustration 1.02
The image above presents the daily chart of gold (XAUUSD) during the 2008 bear market when it dropped 34%.
The secondary trend
The secondary trend is the intermediate-term trend. Its direction is opposite to the primary trend, and it represents any significant price drop in the primary bull market or price rise in the primary bear market. The secondary trend usually lasts for weeks or months. Its measure in percentage terms tends to range between 33% and 66% of the range of the primary trend. This trend is considered to be prone to market manipulation as opposed to the primary trend.
Illustration 1.03
The picture shows Bayerische Motoren Werke's (BMW) daily chart throughout 2020 and 2021. The white dashed-line box indicates the primary uptrend, and the grey dashed-line boxes indicate the secondary trends, counter to the primary one.
The minor and intraday trend
The minor trend lasts for a few days or weeks, yet always less than the secondary trend. It is more difficult to identify than previous types of trends since its amplitude in percentage terms is significantly less when compared to the primary and secondary trends. The same applies to the intraday trend that lasts for a few seconds up to several hours; it represents daily changes in the price and is regarded to have little predictive value.
Trend identification
Identifying a trend is crucial for a trend-based technical trader, and there are plenty of methods how to identify it correctly. These methods can be simple or very complex. The simplest method of identifying trends can be done by tracking recent lows and recent highs in the price of an asset. Other simple methods involve using lines, trendlines, and curves; more complex methods usually involve the use of mathematical formulas in order to generate a set of valuable data.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This article is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trends
ELF, THE BEST CHRISTMAS MOVIE, SAAAAANTAAAAAAA!Really nice trends and price targets defined on this chart.
No idea what this coin is.
But technicals only, it looks like a really good buy.
Support is building at looking to potentially take off for a decent gain, before falling back to trend, which can spark the potential for another big gain.
I drew a line to represent something similar to what I'm seeing, but you don't want to follow this line, it will likely be inaccurate and is better for me to backtrack and remember what was going on with each chart at different times.
I wouldn't hold any higher than 2.3 or so for sure, but I have a hard time saying it will get there before Nov or Jan of 2024. But.. It is a very real price target for this coin.
The downside, percentage wise, is huge. So be careful and watch for a trend break.
Price target marked.
Feel free to ask if questions
I know I keep these a little quick on the discussion, but I try to make my charts pretty self explanatory.
I'm trying to make a lot of charts for earnings, potential market crash and more.
I'll link related ideas.
Trends in upward movement facing some exhaustionTrends are mostly in an upward movement stage, looking to remove the violation left of the 12hr / Daily lower high trend indicators.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5086 Uptrend (5/2/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Higher High
2Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Lower High
3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
As explained in the video, everything is in a higher high between 30m-6hr except the 2hr, which was part of the Powell Pump reversal.
As I explained my trades over last week were a 70 point gain into the Powell Pump, a 70 point reversal after the Powell Pump, and a Long position from 5080 which I cashed out today as we pushed above the Daily downtrend resistance of 5170 for just over $4000. Additionally those Soybean Meal contracts I acquired around 335 were both cashed at around 372 for about $3700 each (I had 2). I don't say this to brag, but moreso to explain why I am not hungry for another trade, as I'm already financially set for the month of May at just under $20,000. This will be why I may seem overly picky about my trades and what may be a good position I may wait if it doesn't look like a borderline perfect trade.
Economic Calendar is very light this week, just jobs data on Thursday.
Earnings calendar is mostly important to watch tomorrow, especially around Disney from my perspective.
Geopolitical tensions could hit a new tension point as Israeli troops move into Rafah.
Overall, my general sentiment on the short term, and probably most of this week, is sideways at the moment.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
PacMan Trend Symbol; Guidance into PCE and Next WeekThe video explains it all a lot better, but basically, we are sitting with higher highs and lower lows on the trend timeframes that brought us here (30m-4hr), otherwise known as the Pac-Man symbol.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
2Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
3Hr - 5123 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
If we move directly higher from here, the 6hr is going to be a lower high, but it will be the lone trend calling for a lower movement, as when the 12hr and Daily strike, we will have a higher high.
I did not account for us to drop so harshly from GDP data yesterday, and certainly didn't expect that drop to fizzle out and us to push higher over after this occurred. This is why I almost never short into Earnings season.
Economic Calendar;
PCE Data is today. I foresee it pushing us lower, but not with enough confidence to blindly trade short into it.
Major next issue is the Fed Meeting on Wednesday of next week.
Overall, likely just missed opportunity from not going short at the close of Wednesday and catching most of the move back down yesterday, although I likely would have let at least half the profit reverse before I jumped out anyways.
I expect I'm going to miss out on a drop today, but without trend confirmation I just don't feel strongly enough about shorting into this PCE data at this point.
I made some good trades earlier, so I'm fine with it, and I still have Gold Long from 2305 and my Soy contracts are FINALLY starting to generate some revenue at around $1500 each.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
May Foolish BTC Focast & The Fool's Odyssey Til Sept 2024: SELL?Ah, behold, fellow seekers of truth and fortune, for on this illustrious 1st of May in the year 2024, I bring forth yet another tale of folly and insight for your discerning minds. Gather 'round, for what follows is not for the faint of heart but for those who dare to dance on the edge of reason.
Let us pay homage to the noble fool who sold in April., that rare breed with minds agape and hearts unburdened by the shackles of convention. Yes, my friends, in their folly lies a wisdom beyond measure, a willingness to embrace the unknown while others cower in the shadows of doubt.
And so we find ourselves in the midst of a grand spectacle, where Bitcoin reigns supreme, its price gyrations a symphony conducted by the whims of market makers. Oh, the suspense! It grips us, thrills us, and yes, at times, even sickens us, especially if our hopes are built on shifting sands.
But fear not, for in this chaos lies opportunity, for those with the courage to seize it. Intuition, that silent guide, whispers truths amidst the cacophony of market noise. Yet, even the wisest among us may falter in timing, as I humbly confess.
Yet, lo and behold, the winds of change blow strong, and though my predictions may have missed the mark, the tide will soon turn. For while I foresaw a descent to $40k, Bitcoin soared to heights unseen, a testament to the capricious nature of the market.
So, my fellow travelers in this grand odyssey, heed my words: seize the moment, for opportunity knocks but once. Do not be swayed by the specter of fear, for it is but a trickster's guise, a ploy to shake our resolve.
And as we brace for the storms ahead, let us arm ourselves with knowledge, for it is our greatest weapon. Behold, the sacred support levels, the bastions of strength in our hour of need:
1. $56,400 - $51,200
2. $49,046 - $45,905
3. $40,359 - $38,722
4. $31,892 - $25,711
Let this missive be a beacon of hope in the darkness, a roadmap for navigating the treacherous waters of the market. And to you, oh hodlers of Bitcoin, I say: stand firm, hold fast, and let not doubt cloud your vision.
For with steadfast resolve and unwavering conviction, we shall weather this storm and emerge victorious on the shores of prosperity. So, my friends, I bid you farewell with these words: HODL strong, and may fortune smile upon us all!
Ah, but heed my warning, dear traders, for the next three months shall test even the stoutest of hearts. The time I foretold back in April here , oh how it has come to pass! As the winds of uncertainty buffet our sails, let us not falter but stand firm in the face of adversity.
Yes, my friends, the stage is set, and the actors poised for their grand performance. Do not be deceived by the allure of quick gains, for the road ahead is fraught with peril. Yet fear not, for in every challenge lies an opportunity, and it is our duty to seize it with both hands.
So, to you, brave souls of the trading realm, I say: be vigilant, be steadfast, and above all, be bold. For the time to act is upon us, and those who heed the call shall reap the rewards.
And to my fellow hodlers, I offer this counsel: stand resolute, for the storm shall pass, and the sun will once again shine upon our endeavors. In the meantime, let us hold fast to our convictions and weather the tempest together.
For in unity lies strength, and in perseverance, victory. So let us march forward, my friends, with heads held high and hearts ablaze with the fire of determination. The journey ahead may be long and arduous, but together, we shall emerge triumphant.
May fortune favor the bold, and may the winds of change carry us ever closer to our goals. Onward, then, to glory!
Disclaimer:
Please note that the analysis provided above is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly speculative and carry inherent risks. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
If you found this analysis insightful, please consider giving it a like and following for more content updates. Thank you for your support!
CAKE is about to give one HUGE birthday surpriseChart is marked with targets
Yes, I realize the targets that I've marked
When it crashes, it might be BIG.
It won't make it to 25 without retracing on the way up.
I could see it top out around 6.9 in an alt coin pump
Personally, I'm quite bullish on this coin.
Trends in conflict; Earnings Likely to cause a short reboundSo again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days.
I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and I expect the week to be typical which means we will rebound during the Earnings season, especially next week with major powerhouses reporting (Microsoft, Google, Tesla). If NVidia was reporting I'd suggest we could rise back up towards 5300, but they are not until the end of May.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5040 Downtrend (4/18/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
This shows lots of downward pressure, although several of the trends are a bit oversold as the 30m has managed to run away with the market.
Economic Calendar;
Nothing important today or the start of next week. GDP is next Thursday though and CPE is Friday.
If I was to express some sentiment it would be
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral
Longer Term - Bullish
... if the above makes any sense!
Oh, and yes, I still have those Soy contracts. They are worth a whopping $1200 after all this time. I may trade them in for some 6E contracts if I see that look like it could run back up to 1.10 any time soon.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Today's Gold Price and Future DirectionAmidst prolonged tensions in the Middle East, global gold prices have surged, defying expectations despite robust economic data from the U.S. The sharp rise in gold prices comes as Israel signals readiness to retaliate against Iran's attacks, disregarding calls for restraint from Western nations.
In the face of escalating geopolitical tensions, global gold prices show no signs of slowing down, with projections pointing towards a potential climb to the $2460 mark. Additionally, the metal is approaching a critical Fibonacci 1.618 profit-taking level, aligning with predictions from Dow Theory."
BItCOiNa has a path to 120k and you aren't gonna like itI mean, this is it. It run up to 120k right to the number. but the rejection needs to be seen around 76-81 and maybe 84 but idk yet.
It would absolutely covid crash the price and wick it down to like almost zero.
The return and I imagine where most people get in will be right around 25k maybe 29k.
It climbs really fast at that point.
retraces into may and june and then we get a big push to 1.2mil to round out the year.
Then big crash.
That is all should this scenario play out. Otherwise this chart is worthless.
I'm telling you, this is a very real scenario that could occur.
But probability wise, it's low.
But it fits, and it's possible.
Keep an eye out.
am crazy.
okay. ty.
Alt coins need to spring and crash before bitcoin crashes, which takes them all down together, the alt coins mostly die and the profits likely pump bitcoin to those levels.
Oh and then probably TSLA, META, MSFT, NVDA, APPLE and a few other all start saying they bought the dip. BIG jump. Followed by everyone saying "well it's a long term hold ya know, I play the long game, it'll come back to a mil."
Bitcoin Holds Bearish Trend Despite Temporary SurgeOverall, Bitcoin (BTC) is maintaining a downward trend. Despite showing signs of increase above the $65,000 mark, it experienced a decline during Friday's trading session in the US. It is expected that the price will adjust to the vicinity of the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci level before continuing its downward journey.
Technical Analysis Signals Strong Growth for USD/JPYUSD/JPY is currently maintaining stability around 154.50 amidst unpredictable market fluctuations. According to Reuters, the currency pair reversed losses after a high-ranking official from Iran stated that there is no immediate plan for retaliation against Israel's missile attack on Iran. This has reduced the likelihood of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Based on technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 60, indicating signs of strong upward momentum in prices. This reflects optimism and bolstered buying activity in the market, potentially driving USD/JPY prices even higher in the near future.
Trends in conflict; Signs support "Sell in May and Walk Away"Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
As explained in the video, the shorter-term trends are calling for lower moves, although the longer-term trends are violated and would be calling for a rebound. In spite of that conflict, I don't expect that rebound in the immediate future at this point.
I go into a longer explanation, but overall I have been shorting the market, and currently have a Short position from 5200. I am looking for this position to hit around the 5000 mark, and then may cash out and wait and see what happens at that 5000 mark. I may look for a reversal position if we head near that area.
The vibe is basically that Inflationary issues persist, geopolitical tension could cause chaos, and ultimately the US Economy is amazing and resilient.
Next week we have major earnings though, so this short move lower could be done for and we could head into a rebound then, before heading lower or at least sideways once again going into May, as we see the old trading technique of "Sell in May and Walk Away" hold true.
General Sentiment - Bearish
Overall Sentiment - Bullish
Safe Trading, and remember your risk management
Stop Loss Placement: Let Your Trade Cook!Intro
I tried to talk through stop-loss placement in 3 minutes here. I do not think justice was done. So let's take a look at exactly what I mean when I say "Let Your Trade Cook". Proper stop-loss placement is critical to a successful trading plan.
Don't Place Your Stop Like Everyone Else
You are guilty of this, if you have been stopped out many times just to see the price move immediately back in your favor. The picture below represents a bunch of pullbacks some long and some short and it has been color-coded to define entries combined with stop losses.
Blue = Entry
Black = Typical Stop
Orange = A Good Stop To Let Your Trade Cook
Red = An Aggressive Stop To Let The Trade Cook
Conclusion
Hopefully, the video along with this image provides you with a better system for discretionary stop losses. I tend to favor the idea that just above or below a momentum bar in the previous swing as my stop loss.
Understanding Market Structure In 5 MinutesThis video goes into depth on the types of market structures and how they happen. Ranging -> Breakout (Spike) -> Channel (trend or a ranging trend) -> Climax. The market moves in these repeatable patterns over and over and over again. If you can diagnose where we are in these cycles then you can harness this skill to improve your trading.
ZILLOW, WILLOW WHEREOW THE PRICE GO? imma be honest, I'm running out of creative titles, so you get what you get.
Trends labeled
Price targets labeled.
really neat setup on zillow here.
These buy zones are marked at some major support, we have a short term trend leading to a top, and may have already hit. We have a long term support trend going in the bearish price direction.
All of the above can help determine potential price movements.
With RSI being overextended, the market as a whole, there is potential for quick downside right past support trend, into the zones of major price support, which will then create even stronger support, which will allow the price to keep climbing back up.
I'm hesitant to predict anything before seeing where it heads into earnings (13th labeled)
BUT..
IDK, something like this maybe?
Essentially, I don't know how it will look, or how steep it goes, but it's good to be prepared for some potential scenarios. This chart can cover quite a few of them if you're patient and wait for the right trade.
Overall, I would suggest being careful, and should the price go up before going down, it might be a better option to look for a short entry and ride the price down than jumping into a long position, especially with how this chart looks.
FIL, FILECOIN, IF YOU'RE LATE FOR LAUNCH, YOU'LL BE MEGA SAD.Holy rocketship.
Trends and price targets marked.
Trend 1 and 2 are fairly significant trends moving in the bullish direction, however they are rejection trends.
The third trend is a small downtrend, still significant but more likely to reflect the drop leading right to some massive support. Spartan 300 support line. It holds and rockets, or it dips way below.
Watch carefully because the price targets literally go up to $299 without much trouble.
That is a rare scenario and more likely, a $8 is likely.
Downside is marked.
Imo, if it dips below trend, you'll probably want to buy the dip.
This coin looked so bullish, I couldn't not share.
Good luck.
Hope you make some bank!!
LLY, LILLY IS THIS STOCK PRICE SILLY?I hope you appreciated my rhyme.
So what to say about this.
One main trend line at the moment.
Big support incoming at 580 to 560 range.
Really big support at 108.
The lines in the middle (light green and red) are fairly weak and more likely short term targets.
I assume the long term targets will line up well with the gaps which are marked in orange.
Orange also on RSI, which is saying be careful.
Short term can take it up to 980 or so but I think the lower targets are more likely and we'll see the higher targets after trend breaks and before it starts to really drop.
However, there are a lot of possibilities that can occur.
The main possibility looks to be a chance of a move to 980, but more likely won't get there and might stick around 780.
I really have a hard time saying what this will do and when it will top out, I could tell you more if I watched this daily, but I don't.
This chart is long term price targets for the downside and the upside.
Given the single trend, you'll need a new chart as more develop, feel free to message if I haven't updated after some time.
I think that covers most everything.
Summary.
I think this stock is overvalued big time, but still has potential to keep seeing more upside in the short and mid term.
AXP, THE PLATINUM CARD ISN'T ACTUALLY PLATINUMTrends and price targets marked.
Things are overextended
Potential to bounce back and catch more upside even with the overextension.
Guideline is more for backtracking, but it could potentially look something like this.
Follow trends and price targets rather than guideline, it is more to get an idea of what things could look like.
247 or so looks like a top to me especially with the trend formation
I would suggest watching a break on the lowest green support trend
and I would also suggest watching a rejection on the rejection trend.
Should we break out of rejection trend, probably 360.
Drop will be steep, but the most natural path would be the 247 drop to 80.
I would say, if you're looking to enter, wait and be patient. If there is more upside, you're not missing much. If downside is coming, there are still trend support lines that can see bounces in price, meaning, you'll likely be able to find a better entry that allows for less risk.
5204 is a major trend support to watchJob data this morning caused a movement exactly as I anticipated and discussed yesterday. The move lower I suspected came yesterday as I anticipated, so now I'm just looking to see if we can move below this 5204 12hr support line. To date, the 12hr has been the major support level to stop any movement down since November which is why we have not seen a Daily trend change for nearly 6 months.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5248 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
1Hr - 5226 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5226 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5260 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
Overall, I will link my video from yesterday if you want an in-depth analysis on why I predicted we would move lower.
Major thing I've heard, is people are no discussing only 2 rate cuts this year. So again, we went into the year with 6 rate cuts priced into the market. We dropped to 3 rate cuts even though we never REALLY priced out the 3 extra rate cuts, and now we are discussing only 2 rate cuts this year, and the potential of them not coming in June.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
First Sell/Short Signals since January - TrendsLonger video but hopefully it clarifies my position in the market. I do NOT have a short position yet, but I am looking for one at this point. I might wait until either the close of the day depending on where we are OR take a short position if the overall day goes negative.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5724 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5277 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
2Hr - 5278 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
3Hr - 5291 Downtrend (4/1/2024) Higher Low*
4Hr - 5260 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5087 Uptrend (2/22/2024) Higher High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
In order to try and keep on point I actually wrote some notes for this video (yes, in spite of the length, I felt I really tried to keep on point). What I will do instead of rewriting any of the video is just copy and paste my notes into here.
NYFANG / MAG 7 still pulling market up (down day even though they had gone up .6%)
Economic Calendar
JOLTs was uneventful
NonFarm Employment is up - Job Growth seems good
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices lower - Includes pay being lower
Powell Speaks - Nothing really new
- Wants to cut rates (already priced in)
- Data will drive decision (says that every time)
Today - Jobless Claims (No expectation other than strong job market)
Tomorrow - Unemployment (Not expecting anything new)
- Even if it does, how do you price in this news? Is good bad, or bad good? Good is good?
Trends;
30m, 1hr, 2hr all in lower highs
3hr had a higher low but if uptrend hits, will now be lower high
So 30m to 3hr trends call for lower
4hr, 6hr, 12hr - call for rebound up
Daily is still sitting massively overbought
Weekly is normal bull market signal even if we go lower
Monthly just hit uptrend, but Monthly has NEVER done anything but higher highs and higher lows back to the 80s (no data past that)
For that to change we would have to go below 3846
- EVEN IF THAT HAPPENED, no historical data to explain what that could mean (Must like we saw with the lower low of a weekly trend)
Sell Signals
The shorter term trends are calling for lower movements
Daily uptrend is well, well, well overcooked
MACD Momentum (Daily) has crossed below zero line. Last time we had that was January when I traded shorts several times and made money. Has historically been MOSTLY accurate.
MACD Momentum had a sell signal 3/26 but it was after down days so uneventful
Weekly Overbought RSI/MFI
Buy signals (or at least cautionary flat moving signals)
Trends of 4hr and above call for
MACD itself is not below the zero line (so not a prime bearish / shorting environment)
Hope you found the information helpful. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
NAS100 incoming Rally!It's been a minute but here is a quick Freebie for y'all! Enjoy! We have been destroying CME_MINI:NQ1! lately on all of our funded accounts.
Quick Scalp Trade:
Entry@ 18273.75
Take Profit #1 @ 18341.00
Stop Loss @ 18266.50
Larger Swing Trade:
Entry@ 18273.75
Take Profit #2 @ 18672
Stop Loss @ 18104.25
Bitcoin Trends: Identifying Bullish and Bearish Signal.Hello Trading View Community,
From soaring to record highs to suddenly dropping over 10%, Bitcoin (BTC) has been full of surprises. Today, let's dive into this rollercoaster ride, exploring the twists and turns of Bitcoin's recent price movements and what might lie ahead.
Bear Divergence in RSI and Price Action 📉
Our journey starts with a notable bear divergence on BTC's daily chart. Here's the scene: Bitcoin prices reaching for the stars while the RSI, our trusty sidekick, decides it's not quite ready to leave the ground. This divergence signals a potential cooldown or reversal on the horizon, suggesting the latest rally might need to catch its breath.
What Does the Trend Say? 🔄
Rewind to October, when our trend-finding indicator flashed a bright Long signal, setting the stage for the rally that led to January's highs. This beacon was a trader's dream, but like all dreams, a wakeup call—marked by today's shift, as spotted by our dot plotter—suggests a moment of pause or a plot twist in Bitcoin's saga.
Plotting the Dots... 📍
Our dot plotter, straightforward yet insightful, has begun signaling a change in momentum, suggesting the party might be winding down. It's like the DJ switching from high-energy beats to a slow jam, hinting it's time to pay attention to the changing vibes.
EMA's to the Rescue? 🛡️
Zooming into the EMAs, we see Bitcoin comfortably above our 21 EMA (the one in pink), keeping the bullish spirit alive. However, it's a delicate balance; staying above this line could mean this is just another one of Bitcoin's famed quick corrections.
Wrapping It Up... 🎬
Considering the bear divergence in RSI and the signals from our custom indicators, a bit of caution could go a long way. The journey since October has been lucrative for those who followed the Long signals, but the road ahead seems uncertain. The convergence of our analysis suggests it might be time to brace for a potential short-term shift.
For enthusiasts hoping to see Bitcoin's ascent resume, the key is to stay vigilant with the charts in the coming days, with a keen eye on the weekly close. This current dip may very well be one of Bitcoin's classic corrections that prelude a continued upward trajectory. Yet, caution remains the word of the day.
As we navigate this uncertain terrain, the descent of Bitcoin will have us closely monitoring for a close below the 21 EMA, signaling a potential shift in strategy. A new Short signal could then emerge as our beacon, guiding our next moves in this ever-evolving saga of Bitcoin trading.
Thank you for joining me on this analysis. If you've found it helpful or entertaining, a "Like" or "Follow" would be much appreciated.
Trade wisely, and remember, these insights are here to aid your journey, not dictate it. These are just ideas, not trading advise...