Trading with a trend: basics and strategyIn this video I explain how to indentify trends on the chart and how to use this knowledge to make trading decisions. At the end of the video we'll create a simple yet profitable trading strategy
Waves Light indicator:
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
Trendstrategy
GOLD, LongGold after hitting the High of $2087.98 is anticipated to retest the next significant level support 2065 with an attempt to pick liquidity and further driving up to test the all-time high of $2145 is on the card this week.
DXY at the close of last week represent a probability of the dollar index declining to the next key level of 102.5 which could give GOLD the upper hand to drive up.
The week's USD fundamentals such as the Jolts Job Opening, Powell's testimony and NFP are very important, and the outcomes will significantly determine the price of GOLD. Thus it is worth keeping an eye on.
Support: 2064
Resistance 1: 2082.5
Resistance 2: 2145
Are We Looking At A Bitcoin Bull Trap?In my last TA post, I talked about the possibility of Bitcoin heading back to the $35-36 range before the halving, and I still don't think I am wrong about that. Let's take a look at why...
Bitcoin is really hitting some resistance at the current range. When I look at other cryptos like Ethereum, it's much of the same. This pattern looks to me like a bull trap. This is where we bounce out of a significant down trend and this price action tends to catch bulls by the short and curlies as they think the price is going to recover and continue to the moon, but it just doesn't work that way. These retracement pumps tend to get people caught in a FOMO mode and then turn on them and head back in the other direction. I believe this is one of those times.
Very rarely does a market like Bitcoin just bounce straight up. It has it's big parabolic rises, yes, as we have seen recently, but this action cannot last forever. In the last cycle, we saw the pump from the 3K range up to nearly 15K and back to the 6.5K range before the halving, so my prediction of seeing a 35K-36K Bitcoin price before April is not out of the cards.
My non-financial advice to traders is if you have been trading this reversal from the 38K range, then you might want to think about taking some profits off the table. Just saying, because that is exactly what I am doing. I am also still DCA accumulating BTC as we go along and will stop that action once we break all time highs again, then it will be off to the races and looking for good market cycle take profit signals.
How are you playing this Bitcoin and crypto action?
THE ART OF RANGE MANAGEMENT - WITH THE TREND OR AGAINST Hey Everyone,
Here at GVFX, we are currently buying dips. What that means is that we buy on the dips and therefore only concentrate on long positions/buys with the odd sells for fun. As mentioned before, having both sell and buy positions open in your account will affect your psychology and in turn, your trading decisions.
Now a question that typically arises here is why would it still be advisable to buy when the market is pushing down? Firstly, let me assure you that the same algorithms, experience and strategies that we use to achieve a 97% hit rate with our bullish directional bias also gives us the heads up, or down if you will, on when the market is going down. Don't think for a moment that we only know how to analyse a bull market or up trends. We share targets/signals for both buys and sells but choose not to hedge out of choice. Our published results remain consistently profitable month in month out!!
In my experience, in the current market conditions, it is much safer to get out of a stuck buy position than a stuck sell position. That's not to mention the clean PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE that is achieved when trading in just one direction. And although hedging can in theory work, it requires years of experience and in the end, is simply not worth the effort. I am more than capable of hedging effectively but the fact that I do not should tell you something.
Let us look at an example to further answer the question highlighted above. When you have short-term bearish momentum down, we take buys from key supports or MAs which act as dips. Remember that the market does not go up or down in a straight line (with the rare exception of short-lived parabolic moves). So, when the market is going down and hits one of our key levels, a buy from that point will go back up for 20 to 30 or 30 to 40 pips (this number of pips has been calibrated based on back testing) before resuming back down.
You can think of it like this. The market moves in a zigzag manner. The zig is that part of the leg which is going down to create lower lows (if the downward trend is continuing). The zag is that part of the leg which takes a breather and pushes back up with momentum for our entry and quick pip-take range to create a lower high (if the downward trend is continuing) before heading back down again. We catch the right and safest waves (buys) in and out and surf to success. When price hits a key structural support or stops creating lower lows and lower highs, we then reassess for entries with a wider range of pip capture.
Hope this post helps our followers to understand how we keep our psychology strong!!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
Trend following trading strategy (works on all markets)This strategy is a trend following strategy to be applied when the market is uptrending. It demonstrates the significance of breakout levels which are very often retested prior to continuation to the upside.
For Trend visualisation, 10, 20 and 50 Moving averages are used.
If you apply ONLY this setup and and nothing else, you will have a statistical edge and be consistently profitable!
All other info is on the chart.
Good luck!
The Three Great Trend Trading CyclesHey Trading family! In this education post I'd like to share with you my observation of the 3 cycles that create the uptrend and downtrend.
First, trend refers to the natural movement of price action. You may know this has highs and lows. I say we dig deeper.
Highs and lows are referred to as the highest price a buyer could buy a currency while a low is the lowest price a buyer could buy a currency. This is on the consumer side.
On the trading side, a high is the highest price you'd sell a currency pair and a low is the lowest price you'd buy the currency pair.
I say we dig deeper here. There are 3 cycles that create the legs of highs and lows of a downtrend.
Cycle 1 - Trend Continuation
In an uptrend you're more than likely to become the buyer. The reason being is because you will likely see when price fluctuates up you will make more money and the move up more visible than the move down.
The flow if price naturally moves up continuing the push up to new highs thus in an uptrend we get higher highs.
In a down trend you'd more likely become the seller The move down is more visible.
The flow if price naturally moves down continuing the push down to new lows thus in a downtrend we get new lower lows.
Cycle 2- Retracement
A retracement is also called the pullback or correction. This is a sign the momentum or strength in the trend continuation movement will relieve itself and pullback.
In an uptrend after a new higher high is formed, price will pullback to form a higher low before continuing back up.You can then become the buyer again.
In a downtrend after a new lower low is formed, price will pullback to form a lower high before continuing back down. You can then become the seller again.
Cycle 3- Reversal
A reversal is the trend switcher. This is not to be confused with the retracement.
Reversals switch the full flow of price. An uptrend becomes the downtrend and a downtrend becomes an uptrend.
How to know when price has reversed?
Easy! It's not a trend line break. It's not a level break!
In an uptrend, when price moves down past the last higher low that was formed, that signals the sellers have come into the market or the base currency has lost value and price will begin decreasing.
In a downtrend, when price moves up past the last lower high that was formed, that signals the buyers have come into the market or the base currency has gained value and price will begin increasing.
Best part to remember is this...
An uptrend or downtrend is only made of the trend continuation and retracement cycle.
You won't see price reverse much on higher timeframes such as the daily, weekly, and monthly. So don't expect to see price reverse every week or month.
Simple right?
Go try this out for yourself. If you have any questions or would like to share helpful value please post it below. 😁
Thanks for reading❤️
Confirming Trends with the Lower Time Frames NZD/USD ExampleHey Guys!
As you guys know, for the past 2 weeks I've been taking multiple trades on the Nzd/usd, both short and long.
First I was taking short trades with the daily short bias, then long trades along with the bias change into long on the daily chart.
In this video, I explain how I knew the daily bias has changed into long thus aborted my initial short entry and began entering long trades.
These lower confirmation tactics play a huge role in my trading, and even if you don't trade with price action, it can be a great addition to your current strategy.
I hope it helps!
Have a great day guys!
Ken
EURGBP buy presents 📈After Mondays short trade our script says it's time for a long.
We are using our trend following EDGE strategy for this trade.
Entry details are shown on the chart trade has just alerted at time of writing.
Working the H1 time frame here and we're only looking for TP3.
Previous trades can been seen on chart with the last one being covered in the idea below.
Lets see if we can go four out for on this pair.
The trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency.
In that box every trade is logged and can be viewed by clicking the tabs in the report box.
You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play.
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren.
CADJPY RUNNING +5.15% RISK FREE ! CADJPY BUY trade running nicely, let them winners run !
5.15% based on 1% risk
OUR STRATEGY EXPLAINED:
The entry price, SL and multiple TPs are shown on the chart.
Our back testing and money management strategy itself is holding until a reverse signal to ride a big trend, but as you will not see the next signal - manage the trade as you wish should you decide to enter.
What is our strategy?
Our strategy is a trend following strategy, can be used on any instrument and time frame. However, we have hard coded specific parameters for when trading the H1 time frame, so we can back up over 4200 previous trades to confirm our edge from previous data. This gives us confidence in execution and belief in our trading strategy for the long term.
The strategy simply sits in your trading view, so you will see exactly what we see - the trade, entry price, SL and multiple TPs (although we hold until opposite trade as this is the most profitable longer term plan), lot size, etc.
This could be on your phone trading view app, or laptop of course.
The hard work is done, so we have zero chart work time, no analysis, no time front of the chart doing technical analysis - technical analysis is very subjective - you may see different things at different times - how do you have a rigid trading plan on a H&S shoulder pattern? Your daily routine, diet, sleep, exercise can affect what you 'see' and your decision making, this doesn't happen when a strategy is coded like this; what we do have is a mechanical trading strategy...
What does this mean?
It means, we are very clear on our entry and our exit and use strict risk management (this is built in - put in your account size, set your risk in % or fixed amount and it will tell you what lot size to trade!) so we have no ego with our position and we are comfortable with all outcomes - its simply just another trade. This free's our mindset from worry and anxiety as we take confidence from knowing our edge is there and also that we have used sensible risk management.
The strategy itself can be used as a live trading journal too - how cool is that? The strategy will confirm and support every open and closed position - so its quite easy to follow.
We just have to do what Percy does.
Please see our related ideas below for more information to explain what we do and how it can help you.
CADJPY - BUY NOW OPEN ! CADJPY - buy position now valid.
The entry price, SL and multiple TPs are shown on the chart.
Our back testing and money management strategy itself is holding until a reverse signal to ride a big trend, but as you will not see the next signal - manage the trade as you wish should you decide to enter.
What is our strategy?
Our strategy is a trend following strategy, can be used on any instrument and time frame. However, we have hard coded specific parameters for when trading the H1 time frame, so we can back up over 4200 previous trades to confirm our edge from previous data. This gives us confidence in execution and belief in our trading strategy for the long term.
The strategy simply sits in your trading view, so you will see exactly what we see - the trade, entry price, SL and multiple TPs (although we hold until opposite trade as this is the most profitable longer term plan), lot size, etc.
This could be on your phone trading view app, or laptop of course.
The hard work is done, so we have zero chart work time, no analysis, no time front of the chart doing technical analysis - technical analysis is very subjective - you may see different things at different times - how do you have a rigid trading plan on a H&S shoulder pattern? Your daily routine, diet, sleep, exercise can affect what you 'see' and your decision making, this doesn't happen when a strategy is coded like this; what we do have is a mechanical trading strategy...
What does this mean?
It means, we are very clear on our entry and our exit and use strict risk management (this is built in - put in your account size, set your risk in % or fixed amount and it will tell you what lot size to trade!) so we have no ego with our position and we are comfortable with all outcomes - its simply just another trade. This free's our mindset from worry and anxiety as we take confidence from knowing our edge is there and also that we have used sensible risk management.
The strategy itself can be used as a live trading journal too - how cool is that? The strategy will confirm and support every open and closed position - so its quite easy to follow.
We just have to do what Percy does.
Please see our related ideas below for more information to explain what we do and how it can help you.
GBPJPY H4 testing /1000%+ gain data for 1000+ trades since 2007 Hi All
Pleased share some back testing results on the H4 timeframe across some xxxjpy pairs, mainly GBPJPY.
By testing H4 we have access to more data in time, so this video shows testing from 2007 with over 1000+ trades , so a substantial back test in my opinion.
Entry is clear - we just follow the entry on screen
Exit is clear - 3 exit options
- Stop Loss (all of our SL's are dynamic and based from ATR - so we take into account volatility on every trade - you can still risk the same amount!)
- TP3 target based on 1:8 Risk to Reward
or lastly, close and enter on a reverse signal if this happens before the other 2 possible outcomes.
Regards
Darren
USDJPY Sell Sell Sell!Sell valid on our strategy.
What is our strategy?
Our strategy is a trend following strategy , can be used on any instrument and time frame. However, we have hard coded specific parameters for when trading the H1 time frame, so we can back up over 4200 previous trades to confirm our edge from previous data. This gives us confidence in execution and belief in our trading strategy for the long term.
The strategy simply sits in your trading view, so you will see exactly what we see - the trade, entry price, SL and multiple TPs (although we hold until opposite trade as this is the most profitable longer term plan), lot size, etc.
This could be on your phone trading view app, or laptop of course.
The hard work is done, so we have zero chart work time, no analysis, no time front of the chart doing technical analysis - technical analysis is very subjective - you may see different things at different times - how do you have a rigid trading plan on a H&S shoulder pattern? Your daily routine, diet, sleep, exercise can affect what you 'see' and your decision making, this doesn't happen when a strategy is coded like this; what we do have is a mechanical trading strategy...
What does this mean?
It means, we are very clear on our entry and our exit and use strict risk management (this is built in - put in your account size, set your risk in % or fixed amount and it will tell you what lot size to trade!) so we have no ego with our position and we are comfortable with all outcomes - its simply just another trade. This free's our mindset from worry and anxiety as we take confidence from knowing our edge is there and also that we have used sensible risk management.
The strategy itself can be used as a live trading journal too - how cool is that? The strategy will confirm and support every open and closed position - so its quite easy to follow.
We just have to do what Percy does.
Please see our related ideas below for more information to explain what we do and how it can help you.
SHORT or maybe sideways?>> OFFER AVAILABLE, read below <<
Last signal showed us a start of a bull trend. As of now we are in the clear and heading in the predicted direction but we could also consider this state to be a sideway movement. If that is correct we might stay here for a while before making a conclusion if we want to go with the bulls or the bears!
>> OFFER <<
I have finally made the decision to share my script to you all and have therefore made a special offer for the FIRST 10 traders.
If you are intrigued then please take a look here!
GBPNZD Short Trade For 4.7-to-1 Reward!Hi guys, our @FollowMyForex trend following system just gave a short signal on GBPNZD for a whopping 4.7-to-1 reward to risk ratio. We will be taking half off at the first target as marked on the chart and ride out the rest of the position to the second target.
Remember to never risk more than you can lose, even if the potential profits look very enticing. It's not the single particular trade that matters, but your consistency in following the system over time.
Good luck, updates to follow.