THE KOG REPORT Bank Holiday tomorrow so we'll keep it simple and update the KOG Report on Tuesday ready for the week ahead. Please have a look at the last few KOG Reports to see how it went, wasn't a bad week at all.
This week, immediate red boxes are on the chart, there is a red box active above and the indicator is suggesting a potential retracement on the move. So we'll look for price to attempt the high, if failed we can expect the move downside into the order region where we may settle.
RED BOXES:
Break above 3365 for 3370, 3376, 3381, 3390 and 3403 in extension of the move
Break below 3350 for 3343, 3335, 3330, 3323 and 3310 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Trendtrading
Strength of Movement: A Hidden Gem for Trend Traders📌 What Is It?
Have you ever struggled to determine whether a price move has real strength behind it? The Strength of Movement indicator might be the tool you're missing.
The Strength of Movement (SoM) indicator by RedK is designed to measure the momentum and conviction behind price movements. Unlike traditional momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, SoM focuses on the strength of directional moves, helping traders identify when a trend is gaining or losing steam.
This post will explore the features, configuration, and practical applications of this indicator.
🔍 What is the RedK Strength of Movement Indicator?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is designed to measure the strength of price movement and show when a quality trend has been established. It uses a simple mathematical concept to identify opportunities for long call or put positions.
📈 What kind of indicator is it?
The Strength of Movement indicator falls into the category of momentum indicators. Momentum indicators are used to measure the speed and strength of price movements.
⏳ Is it Leading or Lagging?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is primarily a leading indicator. It can act as a leading indicator for an imminent change in trend direction by exposing the relative movement or change of price.
⭐ Key Features
Strength Circles: These circles indicate that the top or bottom has not been reached yet, providing valuable insights into market momentum.
Measures the strength of price movement.
Identifies quality trends.
Helps filter out low-momentum conditions.
💡 Benefits Compared to other indicators
Provides clearer signals for trend identification.
Acts as a leading indicator for trend changes.
Helps avoid low-momentum conditions.
⚙️ Indicator Configuration
Timeframe Source: The indicator works on any timeframe, but higher timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly) are recommended for identifying high-quality trend setups.
Range Source: The calculation is based on the relative price change (as a ratio) from the previous bar, rather than absolute values. This makes it more intuitive and accurate for traders.
SoM Calculation Type: The core logic uses a modified `stoch()` function to normalize the strength of movement between 0% and 100%.
Smoothing Adjustments: In version 2, the calculation was refined to avoid visual confusion—especially on Renko or non-time-based charts—by adjusting how the lowest and highest values are interpreted.
📈 Enhancing Signal Accuracy with a Trend Indicator
To enhance the accuracy of signals generated by the RedK Strength of Movement indicator, it can be used in conjunction with trend indicators such as:
Moving Averages: Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are widely used to identify trend direction.
MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence helps reveal both direction and underlying momentum.
Combining these tools helps confirm signals and reduce false positives.
🔄 Alternatives
While the RedK Strength of Movement indicator is powerful, there are other alternatives that also focus on momentum and trend identification:
RSI: Relative Strength Index measures the speed and change of price movements.
Stochastic Oscillator: Measures the level of the closing price relative to the range of prices over a certain period.
💡 Practical Tips
Combine with Trend Indicators: Use the RedK Strength of Movement indicator alongside trend indicators to confirm signals.
Monitor Strength Circles: Pay close attention to the strength circles for insights into market momentum.
Backtest Thoroughly: Before using the indicator in live trading, backtest it on historical data to understand its performance and adjust settings accordingly.
📈 Which Securities Does This Apply For?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator can be applied to a wide range of securities, including:
Stocks: Useful for identifying quality trends in individual stocks.
ETFs: Effective for analyzing exchange-traded funds.
Forex: Valuable for currency pairs, helping traders identify market cycles and potential reversals.
Commodities: Applicable to commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products.
Cryptocurrencies: Can be used to analyze digital assets, providing insights into market momentum.
📌 Conclusion
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis. By measuring the strength of price movement and identifying quality trends, it provides clearer and more accurate signals, helping traders navigate complex market cycles.
AUDNZD both scenarios possibles
OANDA:AUDNZD first analysis till target (attached), here is update and new view on AUDNZD.
We having trend line which is breaked, we having and H&S on top of trend, which also is breaked, price is after make bearish push, but in last period is stop progressing, its make few bouncens on sup zone 1.08230.
In case we see strong bearish push - break of 1.08350 we will have high chance to see higher bearish trend, in case we having break of top sup zone 1.09100 (violet line) we will having bullish confirm.
Personal more bullish, but lets wait for confirms.
Targets:
BULL: 1.10200, 1.10500
BEAR: 1.07800, 1.07500
Pimp Your Indicators – A Smoothed Take on RSIYou don’t need to reinvent the wheel to find new and effective trading tools. Often, enhancing classic indicators with a few thoughtful modifications can yield surprisingly powerful results. Here’s a simple yet effective way to upgrade the RSI and turn it into a more actionable entry signal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, providing a measure of upside momentum within a given timeframe. For example, an RSI reading of 60 implies a 60% upside dominance based on recent price action. Traditionally, traders interpret levels above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold. However, RSI on its own isn’t reliable as a standalone entry trigger. An overbought reading doesn’t necessarily mean the market is losing strength—it simply indicates recent data reflects a strong upward move.
Smoothed RSI Approaches
To extract more useful signals, we can enhance the RSI in a couple of simple but effective ways:
1. RSI vs. RSIMA (RSI Moving Average):
One approach is to smooth the RSI itself by calculating a moving average of the RSI (call it RSIMA), and then observe the difference between the RSI and its moving average. A positive difference suggests bullish momentum; a negative one, bearish. This approach reduces some noise but can still result in a choppy indicator, as seen in the subplot of the reference chart.
2. RSI on Smoothed Price (RSI5M):
A more refined method involves smoothing the price before calculating RSI. Specifically, apply a 5-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to the price series, then compute the RSI on this smoothed series—let’s call it RSI5M. The key insight is to then analyze the difference between RSI5M and the standard RSI. This difference creates a smoother, more robust signal that better captures market bias.
Why It Works
In uptrends, the EMA(5) smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights the prevailing trend more clearly than raw price data. As a result, RSI5M tends to rise faster and higher than the standard RSI. The difference between the two becomes positive in uptrends and negative in downtrends, making it a useful gauge of directional momentum. This effect is illustrated in the lower subplot of the reference chart, where the smoothed signal offers a clearer view of market regimes.
Ready-to-Use Script
If you're not into coding, you can explore the public script of the Parsifal.RSI.Trend indicator on TradingView. It implements a slightly refined version of this smoothed RSI differential and provides a clean visual cue for trend bias.
EURGBP new fall expecting
OANDA:EURGBP whats next, we are have break of DESCENDING TRIANGL, then its be created DESCENDING CHANNEL, which also is be breaked, now we have breaked and trend line.
Price currently is in zone. Expectations are to see break of zone and higher bearish fall.
SUP zone: 0.84600
RES zone: 0.83500, 0.83200
Bullish AB=CD Pattern on XAUUSD – PRZ at 3142–3172This chart shows a clear Bullish AB=CD pattern forming on the daily timeframe of XAUUSD (Gold Spot).
In this setup:
The CD leg equals AB in both length and time symmetry, forming a classic AB=CD structure.
The pattern completes in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) between 3142 and 3172, where:
The CD leg extends to 113% of AB at 3172.58
A confluence of Fibonacci projections (including 200% extension of BC) enhances the significance of 3142.23
The price reacted from the PRZ, hinting at a potential bullish reversal.
🔹 Key Technical Levels:
PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 3142 – 3172
AB = CD Completion: Near 3172
200% BC Extension: 3142
🎯 Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: Between 3142 – 3172
Stop Loss: Below 3140 (breakdown invalidates the structure)
Target 1: 3311 (61.8% retracement of CD)
Target 2: 3365 (78.6% retracement of CD)
📌 Conclusion:
The AB=CD pattern is a powerful harmonic structure, especially when accompanied by Fibonacci confluence. As long as price holds above the PRZ, a bullish move toward 3311 and 3365 remains likely. A break below 3140 would negate this idea.
BTC- New Impulse Soon You Can See read captionbitcoin (BTC) – Bullish Outlook
Price action breaking above key resistance, signaling potential trend continuation
Strong volume supports the move, confirming buyer strength
Higher highs and higher lows forming—classic bullish market structure
RSI and MACD both showing bullish divergence
Next target zone: TSXV:XX ,XXX – watch for consolidation or breakout
Overall sentiment shifting positive with macro tailwinds
GOLD → Retest of trend resistance before declineFX:XAUUSD is recovering amid uncertainty, but there is a fairly strong resistance zone ahead that could hold back growth and trigger a decline...
Since the opening of the session, the price has recovered slightly after a week-long decline. Growth is being held back by two-sided risks: on the one hand, pressure on the dollar and Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating are supporting the metal, while on the other hand, high bond yields and possible US trade agreements are limiting growth.
Investors are awaiting new statements from the Fed and are monitoring US negotiations with key partners. Amid concerns about fiscal stability and weak economic data, gold may remain in positive territory, but positive trade news could turn it down again.
Resistance levels: 3257, 3265
Support levels: 3206, 3153
A false breakout of the specified resistance will confirm the inability to continue growth. Consolidation after a false breakout of 3257 - 3265 below 3257 could trigger a reversal and a fall to areas of interest...
Best regards, R. Linda!
EURAUD READY FOR ANOTHER SWING RALLYI just entered this EURAUD Swing long trade.
Reason;
Monthly is extremely bullish.
Weekly is extremely bullish.
4H changed trend from downtrend to a bullish structure with confirmation through higher highs and higher lows.
The trade was entered on 4H time frame.
It's a 4RR trade setup.
Why Traders Chase — and Always LoseHard truth:
You don’t miss opportunities. You chase noise.
Let’s break down the real reason you keep “missing moves”:
1. FOMO is not urgency — it’s confusion.
When you enter because “everyone’s talking about it,” you’re not trading a setup. You’re reacting to social proof.
2. Volatility ≠ opportunity.
Big moves look attractive, but if they’re not in your plan — they’re distractions, not trades.
3. The market rewards patience, not activity.
Every click, every chart, every refresh feeds your dopamine — not your edge.
🚫 Solution?
Stop scanning. Start filtering.
Use tools that prioritize structure over noise. That’s why we built TrendGo — to give clarity in chaos and help you avoid traps masked as opportunity.
📌 Don’t chase. Build your edge.
USDJPY Bullish Breakout Setup – Retest at Key Demand ZoneUSDJPY is respecting a clean bullish structure after rebounding from the 140.100 base. Price made a higher high near 148.650, followed by a pullback into the previous demand zone around 145.000.
Technical Breakdown:
Market Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a strong uptrend.
Demand Zone: Clean reaction from the 145.000 zone, which previously acted as resistance-turned-support.
Target Zones:
First TP: 147.900 (previous swing high)
Final TP: 150.600 (key resistance level)
Invalidation Level : Close below 144.800 could invalidate this bullish scenario.
If price sustains above 145.000, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
As always, manage risk carefully.
Like & Follow for more clean, high-timeframe breakdowns!
How To Setup & Use The Trend Trading IndicatorThis video gives an in depth explanation of each setting of the Trend Trading Indicator so you can understand how to set up the indicator properly and get your desired results.
We cover the following:
Master trend signals and settings
How to configure your master trend signal timeframes correctly
How to get rid of signals when the market is ranging
Each type of extra signal: strong all timeframe trends, pullbacks during strong trends, trend score signals and more
What timeframes and settings to use for intraday trading
Customizing the settings to get the results that fit your trading style
Make sure to test out your settings on various markets using historical data to ensure you have the indicator performing according to your specific parameters.
If you have any questions about using the indicator or the settings, feel free to reach out to us.
Happy Trading :)
EURCAD no3 view, bearish continuation still to expect
OANDA:EURCAD last two analysis on EURCAD doing, going good, will be attached, having now one more update and new view.
Price at end is break RAISING WEDGE and BEARISH FLAG, pushing strong bearish, strong volumem and momentum is gathered and still here having strong bearish expectations.
SUP zone: 1.57200
RES zone: 1.53000, 1.51600
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – May 12–17, 2025High Timeframe Bias: Bullish with active pullback under premium supply
🔍 Macro Structure Insight:
Market structure remains bullish on Weekly, with a recent ATH at ~3500.
Price showed a strong rejection from the 3448–3500 premium supply zone but found support near 3284–3292.
We are currently in a retracement phase, and the next few candles will determine if it’s a reload or deeper correction.
📌 Key Weekly Structural Zones
Zone / Level Description
3500 ✅ ATH – liquidity sweep & rejection
3448–3500 🔺 Premium Weekly Supply – key rejection zone
3380–3395 🔁 Weekly FVG – potential short-term resistance
3284–3292 🔵 Fresh Support – demand reaction after daily wick bounce
3220–3250 🔵 HTF Weekly Demand – equilibrium & previous BOS zone
3120–3150 ❗ Critical Support – losing this would break bullish structure
📈 Fibonacci Weekly Extension Zones (Above ATH – 2285 → 3500 Leg)
Extension Level Target Price Description
1.0 3500 Current ATH
1.12 3560 First minor extension
1.18 3590 Shallow breakout target
1.236 3620 Key fibo confluence zone
1.272 3645 Round-level + breakout magnet
1.33 3680 Sentiment shift potential
1.414 3720 Major HTF fibo extension
1.5 3760 Mid-range round milestone
1.618 3800–3820 Golden extension + HTF magnet zone
🔁 Scenarios for This Week:
Bullish Continuation:
If 3284–3250 holds as a higher low → market may aim for 3380–3395, then test 3448–3500 again.
Breaking above ATH could trigger targets toward 3560 → 3590 → 3645.
Bearish Retracement:
If price breaks below 3250, a deeper move toward 3120–3150 could begin. This would threaten the weekly bullish leg.
⚠️ Watch for:
Weekly close below 3250 = short-term bearish shift
Push and hold above 3360–3380 = signs of bullish continuation
Rejection from 3448–3500 again = potential double-top liquidity trap
GBPUSD - Liquidity Grab & BoS Signals Bearish ReversalSmart Money Concepts (SMC) Analysis
1. Liquidity Sweep & Break of Structure (BOS):
Price consolidates above a trendline with multiple rejections (blue lines).
A liquidity grab occurs below this trendline – classic inducement setup.
After the grab, a bearish BOS (break of structure) is confirmed with a strong candle closing below the trendline and recent lows.
2. Order Block:
Price retested a 4H bearish order block (grey shaded zone) before rejection. This OB aligns with the last bullish candle before the drop.
Rejection from the OB confirms institutional interest (SMC).
3. Imbalance / Fair Value Gap (FVG):
The drop left a minor imbalance zone, suggesting possible continuation down to fill the inefficiency.
Price Action Analysis:
1. Trendline Break:
Ascending trendline has been broken with strong bearish momentum.
Indicates a shift from higher lows to lower lows → possible trend reversal.
2. Supply Zone Respect:
The price failed to make a new high and was firmly rejected at resistance.
Double top or lower high formation adds bearish confluence.
3. Target & Risk-Reward:
The trade setup indicates a short entry just below trendline break.
Target around 1.29393, likely based on previous demand zone or liquidity pocket.
Stop above 1.33664, likely above the OB or structural high.
Solid RRR (>3:1) visible.
Confluences Supporting Bearish Bias:
Break of internal structure (Price Action)
Liquidity sweep below trendline (SMC)
Bearish Order Block rejection (SMC)
Strong bearish engulfing candle
Favourable RR trade plan
Conclusion:
This is a high-probability bearish setup combining a trendline liquidity sweep (inducement), break of structure, order block rejection, and efficient risk-reward positioning. The price is expected to target 1.29393, aligning with a previous demand or liquidity zone.
Thanks for your time..
Gold Trend Analysis – Potential Movement ForecastThe recent price action suggests a potential turning point in gold’s trend. While the market has maintained an ascending trajectory , the latest pullback introduces a level of caution. The structure remains intact within the trend channel , but the rejection near resistance indicates that bullish momentum may be cooling off.
Key price zones such as 3800.796, 3549.659, and 3238.064 will be decisive in determining the next movement. If buyers defend these levels, a rebound towards higher resistance is likely. However, a break below support could accelerate a deeper correction.
Market sentiment currently leans towards buy-side accumulation , as marked across the chart, yet a confirmation signal from price behavior is required before engaging further in longs. Managing risk effectively in these conditions will be crucial to navigate the upcoming price movements.
Nasdaq - Printing The Obvious Bottom!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) already finished the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we witnessed a minor "crash" of about -25% over the past couple of weeks, the bottom might be in on the Nasdaq. We simply saw another very bullish all time high break and retest and depite the possibility of a second retest, I am (still) extremely bullish at these levels.
Levels to watch: $17.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Gold Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3300 zone, Gold was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 3300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Looking to short CL to continue lowerCL is making a corrective move higher before moving down to the ultimate target of last Daily structure leg down. It retraced to Daily bearish Fair Value Gaps (internal range liquidity zones) which should act as resistance. 15M bearish structure is in Extreme premium.
I'm looking for CL to break down bullish corrective structure on 5M chart and start a final move down.