Trendtrading
Etherum eyes $7,300 After Wave 4 Rebound! Long-Term Analysis of ETH/USD
We are back with another in-depth look at the ETH/USD pair. It appears that Elliott Wave 4 has completed, and we may see one more wave to the upside before a larger correction occurs.
Wave 4 was particularly intense, with a sharp and rapid decline that brought the price down to the 200-week moving average (MA). This level also coincided with the lower support line of the current channel. Fortunately, we experienced a strong rebound from this area, and the market is now poised for a potential upward movement.
My target for this next leg is at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, which is around $7,300 per coi
The wolf pack are hunting for profits, one block at a time..🐺
Make sure to follow my new profile on X for more weekly updates! :@PuppyNakamoto
Happy trading!
COINBASE:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Flag Pattern Alert: Gold's Big Decision!Now that the title got your attention! Take some time to fully digest the market breakdown below where we cover this further in depth!
1. Price Structure:
- Downtrend: The chart shows a significant downtrend from the left side, leading to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish structure.
- Consolidation/Flag Formation: After a strong bearish move, the price appears to be consolidating within a flag pattern, as indicated by the 15-minute and 1-hour flag formations.
This is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might continue in the direction of the previous trend (downwards).
2. Key Levels:
- Daily LQZ (2,474.774): This is a higher time frame liquidity zone. Price is currently below this level, indicating that there might be significant resistance here.
- 4HR LQZ (2,459.094): This zone is also above the current price, acting as potential resistance. A move towards this zone might face selling pressure.
- 1HR LQZ (2,445.648): This is a closer resistance level, just above the current price action, within the range of the flag pattern. A breakout above the flag might target this LQZ.
- 15M LQZ (2,415.863): Price is currently hovering around this level, indicating that the market is at a critical point where it could either bounce or break lower.
- 1HR LQZ (2,402.417): If the price breaks down from the current flag, this level could act as the next target/support.
3. Potential Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow):
- Breakout of the Flag: If the price breaks out upwards from the flag formation, it could signal a reversal or a correction within the larger downtrend.
- Target Levels: The price might aim for the 1HR LQZ at 2,445.648 first, with potential further movement towards the 4HR LQZ at 2,459.094, and eventually towards the Daily LQZ at 2,474.774 if bullish momentum continues.
- Bearish Scenario (Orange Arrow):
- Breakdown from the Flag: If the price breaks down from the flag pattern, it would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend.
- Target Levels: The immediate target would be the 1HR LQZ at 2,402.417, followed by the next lower Daily LQZ at 2,355.819.
4. Market Phases:
- Impulsive and Corrective Phases:The downtrend before the flag can be considered an impulsive phase, while the flag pattern itself represents a corrective phase. Understanding these phases can help anticipate the next move.
5. Lower High Formation:
- The chart also marks a “Lower High” within the flag formation. This suggests that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher, which is a bearish signal, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown.
6. Volume Analysis:
- Volume Support: The volume seems to be lower during the flag formation compared to the preceding downtrend, which is typical in a consolidation phase. A breakout with strong volume would give more validity to the direction.
7. Conclusion:
- Bullish Bias: If the price breaks out of the flag with strong momentum and volume, a short-term bullish move towards the higher LQZs can be expected.
- Bearish Bias: The overall trend and the formation of a lower high suggest a bearish continuation. If the price breaks down from the flag, the bearish scenario could play out with targets towards the lower LQZs.
This breakdown gives you a structured view of the current market conditions on this chart. As always, consider combining this technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment, fundamental analysis, and your risk management strategies.
"Straddle" on the Yen. Can we make money on this?The Japanese yen option market bet on Straddle.
A "Straddle" is a type of options strategy that aims to profit from market volatility regardless of the direction of price movement. In simpler terms, a Straddle involves buying both a call and put option with the same strike price, creating a neutral position.
This type of strategy can generate profits if the market moves in either direction, but the profits are not realized immediately, rather, they occur after the market has passed certain price points. It is highly recommended that you read ourarticle published on TV for further understanding.
Despite the fact that examples are provided in post from stock market, where Straddles are more common, the principles and mechanics of this strategy are applicable to all markets.
So, on August 6th, a significant Straddle option portfolio was listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The boundaries of this portfolio, which are indicated on the provided chart, represent reasonable entry points for the portfolio owner. Based on observations, the price tends to bounce off these boundaries. Therefore, these boundaries can be used to enhance our trading strategy. For trading in the direction of the current trend, of course! Not contr-trend!
Let's see if we can get a signal at the border and open up a position.
REN/USDT Analysis – August 8, 20241. Introduction of the Analysis: BYBIT:RENUSDT.P
This analysis delves into the REN/USDT pair on the 4-hour timeframe, using technical indicators to project potential market movements and identify strategic trading opportunities.
2. Indicators Used:
- Quarterly Fibonacci Pivot Point Levels: These levels are used to highlight crucial support and resistance zones that could guide price action.
- Main Pivot Point (Yellow Resistance): The yellow line represents the main pivot point, a significant level where price reactions are anticipated.
- Support and Resistance of Pivot Points: The grey areas on the chart provide additional support and resistance levels derived from pivot points, offering further insights for potential price targets.
- Weekly Candle Display: This feature allows for alignment with broader market trends by showing weekly price movements.
- Monthly Fibonacci Pivot Point Levels: These levels provide higher timeframe confluence, reinforcing the importance of the identified support and resistance areas.
- Yellow Candle (High Volume): The yellow candle indicates a significant volume spike (over 200), signaling strong market activity at that level.
3. Overview:
- Support Zone:
- A key support area is identified near the 0.0306 level, which corresponds with a quarterly Fibonacci pivot point. This zone could serve as a potential rebound area for price.
- Resistance Zone:
- The primary resistance level is marked by the yellow line at 0.04318, aligning with the main pivot point. Additional resistance is found around 0.05277, which could act as a target for price movements.
- Trade Setup:
- Long Position:
- Entry: Around 0.03976, where price is testing a grey support zone.
- Targets:
- First target at 0.04318.
- Second target at 0.05277, correlating with the upper resistance level.
- Stop Loss: Below the recent low at 0.0306.
4. Conclusion:
REN/USDT is currently positioned at a key support level of 0.03976, with potential for an upward move towards 0.04318 and 0.05277 resistance zones. Traders might consider entering long positions at these levels, with proper risk management by setting a stop loss below the 0.0306 support level.
5. Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content adheres to TradingView’s guidelines and avoids any promotional or external community links.
Bitcoin Down 14% from Halving Event: What Happens from HereThree posts ago, we discussed the intricate relationship between Bitcoin’s halving events and broader economic conditions. The recent market developments have indeed proven this connection, as Bitcoin has experienced a significant 14% drop since the halving event on April 20th 2024.
Context of the Recent Market Crash
Several factors have contributed to Bitcoin's recent decline:
1. Macro-Economic Conditions : The Bank of Japan's rate hike on July 31, 2024, significantly impacted global markets. This move made borrowing more expensive, disrupting the carry trade involving the yen and causing a ripple effect across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
2. Market Sentiment and Sell-offs : The anticipation of Mt. Gox creditor repayments, releasing around $8 billion worth of Bitcoin into the market, created fear among investors, prompting a sell-off that drove prices down to as low as $53,600.
3. Broader Equity Market Decline : Global equity markets have also been under pressure, with major indices experiencing significant losses. This broader market downturn has influenced Bitcoin's price, as investors often sell off riskier assets during periods of economic uncertainty
It's Not All Doom and Gloom
Over the long term, Bitcoin has always shown resilience and growth, particularly in the years following a halving event. Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to experience significant increases 6-12 months after each halving. This pattern has been consistent across the previous three halving events:
2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged from around $12 to over $1,000 within a year.
2016 Halving: Bitcoin climbed from approximately $650 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months.
2020 Halving: Bitcoin soared from $8,000 to over $60,000 in the following year.
These historical trends indicate that despite short-term volatility and market downturns, Bitcoin has a strong track record of long-term growth. This resilience is driven by the fundamental principle of reduced supply through halvings, which creates scarcity and can drive demand.
Position Update from Our Trend Model
The Model had gone cash one day prior to the sell-off, resulting in a small loss of 6% from the long entry price back in July, the model was however able to avoid what was to come after that, which was a 20% drawdown within 72 hours. The model remains bearish for the medium term and we'll update in another post when the time comes.
As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consider both macroeconomic factors and market sentiment when making investment decisions. Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we continue to monitor the evolving market conditions and their impact on primarily crypto 🚀.
#OIL Elliot wave analysisAfter the bearish move that oil prices experienced until the fifth of August, it seems like the price has initiated another bullish move, which currently appears to be an impulsive wave.
However, it should be noted that even if this bullish move is an ABC corrective wave, it makes no difference since the price could still go higher to complete wave C.
Therefore, this bullish move seems probable for now, and we could look for buying opportunities near support levels.
Gold Traders Alert: Crucial Levels to Watch for the Next Trade!Key Components:
Chart Type and Pair:
The chart is a 1-hour (1H) timeframe for the Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) pair.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Horizontal Resistance Line at $2,446.18: This is labeled as "1HR LQZ" (1-hour liquidity zone), indicating a significant resistance level where price might face selling pressure.
Horizontal Support Line at $2,347.82: Also labeled as "1HR LQZ," indicating a significant support level where the price might find buying interest.
Trend Lines:
There are descending yellow trend lines drawn, indicating a downtrend. The lower yellow trend line has a label suggesting a "Potential 3rd Touch," which typically indicates a possible point for a bounce or reversal.
Price Action:
The recent price action shows a lower high (LH) formation near $2,446.18, suggesting a downtrend continuation.
Two potential scenarios are sketched on the right side of the chart with different colored lines (orange and green) depicting possible future price movements.
Analysis:
Current Trend:
The overall trend appears to be bearish due to the formation of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
Support and Resistance:
The price is currently trading between two significant levels ($2,446.18 and $2,347.82). Breaking either level with strong momentum could indicate the next directional move.
The price nearing the lower yellow trend line for a potential third touch suggests a possible bounce. If the price respects this trend line, it could indicate a temporary support.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
If the price finds support at the lower yellow trend line and the horizontal support at $2,347.82, it might bounce back towards $2,446.18. Breaking above this level could lead to a further rise.
Bearish Scenario (Orange Path):
If the price fails to hold the support at the yellow trend line and $2,347.82, it might continue to fall. A break below this support level could lead to further declines, targeting lower support levels not shown in the chart.
MAX/USDT NEW INCREASE VOLUMEMAX/USDT shows the low time frame possibility for new volume which can affect the price for an uptrend. ( depend all on high chance) There are no guarantees in the markets.
The new increase volume updates start always with interest if there is a confirmation with follow, and if there is a building with hold for a time.
90% of coins this time are not building coins. some % shows also a start fake trend and return back where it did start. time frame confirmation + high levels building is important for a healthy coin.
We are in a main market where panic is active.
When this coin can confirm we will follow it further for trend follow.
This update and all our updates are not trading advice, Trading can always be risky.
Let's hope the best trades for everyone❤️
Dogecoin Buying Opportunity?As you can see on the daily chart, dogecoin is trending downwards in this channel. Buyers seem unable to break above .12800 resistance at the moment.
If price breaks below the support line, I will wait to see how price reacts to the potential buy zone for a long position/dead cat bounce.
If price retests the support line and doesn't break it, I might enter for a scalp to the upside.
If price breaks above the channel and creates a new trend upwards, I will enter long.
What are your thoughts on dogecoin?
COINBASE:DOGEUSD
SP500 1D | PlanThe reaction and closes of the price in the current area are very important. A close above the 200 EMA and DO within a few days is crucial. If the price fails to recapture the dark blue box as I indicated, I expect to see the price action, brush movement I have drawn below. The area of the purple box where MO and pMO are located will be the target.
Happy Trading
Maximum Hypothesis TestI still believe Tesla is a great company with a lot of future ahead. However, seeing how aggressive price action has been lately, it would be wise to consider taking some profits. This would allow for the trade to keep going, and the previous winning trades will have room to grow into strong investments. It's unlikely that price will continue to uptrend in this manner, but it's great to finally see some life signs out of this company. I'm sure their future will be bright, but as of now we must stay realistic and expect price to uptrend in a normal manner and not in a bubble like form.
I believe it would be best to lay back and wait for more buying opportunities and look to dollar cost average the dip. If price does keep increasing then the unliquidated stocks should keep capturing returns and if it drops then dollar cost averaging would create a great scenario for catching a possible long term uptrend.
Will the dollar recover its recent losses?Looking lately at the Peso/Dollar relationship, it has seemed as if the high prices for the dollar are here to stay and the super peso has come to past. It was surprising to see that the upward trend that price was on broke. However, price as of lately has been struggling to push downwards. This is because of the 25MA is acting as support on the daily chart. Additionally, seeing the 25MA acting as resistance in the monthly chart put this trade in an uncomfortable situation. Mainly because even though there is an uptrend in important time frames, this trend is being tested on a way larger time frame.
On the other hand, the movement that brought price to these levels was very solid and has a lot of support under it. Considering 18.00 pesos per dollar to be quite a good deal, I would believe that many more people will see it this way and would rather be investing in dollars. In conjunction with the main Mexican index BMV:ME which has failed to recover from the down movement caused by the victory of the newly elected Mexican president. It's officially been a month since the index hasn't been able to break above the 25MA. If price fails to create an uptrend soon, this could lead to another 8% fall in the Index. This would create great buying opportunities in the Mexican market but could also cause investors to panic.
Waiting to see if Mexico is in the verge of collapse makes me think that dominoes may be starting to fall. Meaning there could be something much more serious lurking under the water. This in combination with the high risk that the USA will enter a crisis makes me believe that if price of Mexican stocks doesn't begin to turn around, we could be on the verge of a new recession. The USA still seems to have some fuel left in the tank, which could help the Mexican index recover, as also the recent rainfall has been a blessing for many communities that were affected by the severe droughts all over the country.
Meaning there is a possibility that Mexico will recover, but if it doesn't then this should be a red sign for the USA as your market is overextending. Meaning, if USA enters intro euphoria and Mexico into crisis, then we would have a severe economic divergence in two countries which economies are interconnected. Expect the best, prepare for the worst.
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk.
The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend.
This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
Nasdaq Weekend Pre MarketIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
Never Underestimate A Simple Setup USDCHF +120 Pips Update: simple and easy setups sometimes are the best so never underestimate ur trade and have second thoughts about it on 2 conditions:
1- u enter from strong area of resistance or support.
2- u don't enter against the trendline or the general direction of the pair.
the price is creating very decent waves and also it will hit 71% fib level that will be at the same are of the trendline so putting a sell trade around this are will be great opportunities
Trading Idea: Bearish Shark Setup on NZDUSDI wanted to share an interesting setup on NZDUSD that’s been forming for a while. Let’s dive into the details!
Current Overview:
Bearish Shark Setup:
Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) : The setup has been hovering at the PRZ, which some traders might misinterpret as a violation.
Key Insights:
Having the Right Knowledge Matters : From my 19 years of trading and nearly 16 years of coaching, I’ve seen even experienced traders make mistakes in reading signals like this. It’s not uncommon for traders with 8 years of experience to misjudge such setups.
Strategy:
Second Chance Entry:
Key Level : 0.5935
What to Do: If you missed the initial signal, wait for the market to retest 0.5935 for a second chance entry opportunity.
Community Alert:
This Trade Alert was triggered at 14:00(SGT)
Final Thoughts:
Patience and proper signal interpretation are crucial in trading. If you’re looking for a second chance, keep an eye on 0.5935. Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need more insights or if you missed this trade.
What’s your take on this setup? Have you seen similar patterns before? Share your thoughts and strategies below!
Happy trading, everyone!
This Simple Error Cost Me Big on XAUUSD! Learn From My Mistakes!Key Levels and Zones
Highs and Lows:
HH (Higher High) and LH (Lower High) are marked on the chart.
The chart shows a recent HH and LH indicating a bullish trend with a potential pullback.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
4HR LQZ at 2474.891: This zone might act as a significant resistance level.
4HR LQZ at 2432.126 - 2432.046: This zone was previously a resistance level that may now act as support.
4HR LQZ at 2348.453: Another support zone lower on the chart.
Daily Bull Flag:
A daily bull flag is drawn, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend if the price breaks out upwards.
Trading Plan
Identify Key Zones:
Mark key support and resistance levels on your trading platform.
Wait for Confirmation:
Look for confirmation signals (candlestick patterns, volume spikes) before entering a trade.
Set Alerts:
Use trading alerts to get notified when the price reaches key levels.
Risk Management:
Always use a stop loss to protect your capital.
Ensure your risk-reward ratio is at least 1:2.
Review and Adjust:
Regularly review your trades and adjust your strategy based on market conditions.