The Perfect Setup Unfolding: Don’t Miss This High-Prob TradeIWhat’s Changed and What to Look for Now?
1. Structure and Pattern Focus: Wedge and Correction Identified
The yellow descending lines still highlight a wedge-shaped correction after the price made an upward impulsive move. Wedges often act as continuation patterns, meaning the trend (in this case, bullish) is likely to resume once the wedge is broken.
Price has already broken out of the wedge and pulled back, hinting that the market might continue upward after this slight retracement.
🔍 What to Do:
If you spot a wedge breakout like this, wait for a retest—which seems to be forming now—before entering the trade. This increases the chance of entering at a safer spot rather than chasing the move.
2. Identifying the "Potential Buy Zone"
You have a Potential Buy Zone marked around the 2,636–2,647 range, which aligns with both:
Key Fibonacci levels: 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels.
Demand area: The price previously bounced from this region, showing there’s buying interest.
📝 What to Do:
Watch for price action signals within the buy zone, such as:
Pin bars (candles with long lower wicks).
Engulfing candles (strong green candles that close above the previous red ones).
Mini flags or pullbacks to signal buyers stepping in.
3. Set Entry and Stop-Loss Levels Smartly
If you enter within the buy zone, place your stop-loss below the 78.6% Fibonacci level (around 2,620). This ensures you’re protected if the trade goes against you.
Target One: 2,675.051
Target Two: Around 2,700
These targets are based on previous highs and Fibonacci extensions (-27.2% and -51.8%).
🔍 Pro Tip:
Always plan 2:1 or 3:1 risk-reward ratios. In this case, the stop-loss is relatively tight compared to the potential reward, making this a high-reward trade setup if price respects the buy zone.
4. Using "The Rule of Three" to Confirm the Setup
Based on the Rule of Three, you should always have three confirmations before entering a trade. In this scenario, here’s how it applies:
First confirmation: Price has entered the Fibonacci zone and buy zone (2,636–2,647).
Second confirmation: A bullish reaction or candlestick signal forms (like a pin bar).
Third confirmation: If price breaks above a mini-flag or consolidates slightly above this zone, it’s a strong sign to enter the trade.
5. What to Watch for as a Beginner
If price touches the buy zone and starts to show signs of rejection (like a wick or small bullish candles), that’s your signal to consider entering.
Be patient: If the price doesn’t give a clear signal, stay on the sidelines. Waiting for a proper entry reduces losses from impulsive trades.
How to Back-Test This Setup:
Look at past trades where the price pulled back into a similar buy zone with Fibonacci overlap.
Record how often these setups worked and whether waiting for the confirmation signals improved your success rate.
Summary for New Traders
This chart is a great example of a continuation setup:
Trend identification: The trend is still up, with a correction (wedge).
Entry zone: The buy zone is based on Fibonacci and prior support.
Wait for confirmation: Use candlestick patterns or break/retest setups.
Targets and stop-loss: Define a stop below the buy zone, and target the next highs (2,675 and 2,700).
This is an excellent opportunity to practice patience and discipline—wait for the right signals, and trade according to the plan. Use small positions if you're new, or try this setup in a demo account to build confidence!
Trendtrading
XAUUSD GOLD: Understanding Trend Shifts for Precision Entries👀👉 In this video, we explore the inner workings of market trends and, more importantly, how smart money manipulates price action to sweep liquidity, allowing them to place their orders and sustain the trend. We also showcase a powerful, free indicator from TradingView’s extensive toolset. Here's what we cover:
📊 Understanding Trends: How trends truly operate in the market.
💰 Smart Money Tactics: How institutional traders manipulate price action to sweep liquidity and execute large orders.
🔑 Key Levels: Identifying crucial accumulation and distribution zones to approach potential trade setups effectively.
🛠 TradingView Indicators: Learn how to access tools that help spot when price is overextended.
🔎 Market Structure: Discover how to locate resting liquidity and anticipate price reactions, understanding the role of liquidity in market movement.
📈 Trade Setups: Using a practical approach, we examine price interactions with liquidity, blending Wyckoff theory and ICT concepts for sharper trade decisions.
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risks. Be sure to conduct your own research before making any decisions. Trade responsibly.
AAVE: Strong Impulsive Move on the HorizonAAVE is showing two clear, decisive breaks of the upper trendlines, pointing to an upside move. The price action looks impulsive, with sharp upward lunges already visible. If this pattern holds, we’re likely in Wave 3, and a significant move to the upside could happen quickly.
However, after Wave 5 of 5 completes, we should expect a classic ABC correction to follow. For now, the trendline analysis looks solid, but it’s crucial to wait for a decisive trend break before considering taking positions. As always, make sure your signals align before jumping in.
BTC and Trendlines: Patience over FOMO for a Clear SignalTrendlines are key to staying disciplined. Recently, BTC has seen some impressive inflows, with a couple of green bars showing up nicely on the charts. In the past, this might have triggered some FOMO, tempting me to start adding capital as those green bars intensified. But does this necessarily mean we’re seeing a trend reversal? Absolutely not.
The real difference between FOMO and a solid trade setup lies in waiting for the ‘jive’ of multiple signals to confirm the move. For me, the most reliable indicator remains the trendline. If the yellow trendline is decisively broken, then we can confidently say BTC is on Wave 3 of 5 of 5 of 1. However, this recent green uptick alone isn’t enough to suggest a decent trade opportunity yet.
Points A, B, and C might have been valid entry points in the past, but without a clear break of the upper trendline, the risk of a reversal still looms large. For confirmation, I’m looking for a decisive break—a full open and close above the trendline, ideally on at least a 4-hour timeframe. Only then can we be more certain about BTC’s next big move.
If Point D is reached (around $63,600), that’s where I’m fully in—riding it up to around $130K. Until then, it’s all about waiting for the signals to align and not getting caught up in short-term excitement.
#Silver near the end of wave 3 of 5 of 3 From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that the price has formed wave 3 in an impulsive bullish move. Therefore, we can anticipate a bearish corrective move to complete wave 4.
Based on the principle of alternation, since wave 2 was a sharp correction, wave 4 could potentially be a more prolonged, time-consuming corrective phase. This suggests that the upcoming wave 4 correction may develop as a more complex or sideways movement before resuming the uptrend for wave 5.
It's important to note that bullish move is still on. However, we may now see a bearish corrective move.
US's Resilient Economy Attracts European InvestorsHello!
Chart Explanation & Indicators
EURUSD has been bearish since the weak higher high on 25 September. You find this level in the upper zone. When MACD crossed to the bearish side on 30 September, EUR started a spectacular crash into the bottom zone. EUR pierced the bottom zone and now sits on the trendline. Historically, EUR rallied from this trendline on 27 June and 02 August, as the red circles demonstrate. Rising trendlines, however, tend to break downward eventually. MACD has an active bearish cross and a definite bearish trend. Momentum is growing more hefty to the bearish side. Bears could target the white zone at $1.088 or lower.
Technical Zones
There are two horizontal, red rectangular zones on the chart. The upper zone and the bottom zone . The bottom zone contained support levels where the EUR could bounce on 16 August and 12 September and hit the resistances of the upper zone. However, the EUR lost the support zone. The bottom zone might have become another resistance. The price sits on a rising, red support trendline now. The next zone that might function as a support is around $1.088.
Conclusion
The setup suggests a short position. The price resting on a supportive trendline casts a shadow on the suggestion. The signal might be bearish, but the entry doesn't seem ideal. I'll wait for the setup to change for a new assessment or the price action to align with the setup to catch a neat entry.
Thankfully to all followers,
Ely
LOOKING FOWARD FOR THIS M15 SETUP 1.Price already enter a very strong demand zone I think here sellers will find all the buyers they have been looking for (LOL) remember if you are selling 100 iPhones you will need 100 buyers it's that simple.
2. Price have wiped out lot of liquidity, so why will price keep going down to sweep that low in H4 I think there's no need for that therefore from this point we should see the start of a complex pullback to a supply zone in H4.
3. This figure you see here in M15 that will be my confirmation to start buying, Fibonacci is showing our M15 trading range (last high, last low) if this doesn't happen it means is going deeper into our H4 demand zone, that's why I always opt for confirmation in lower time frame before executing any orders.
WILL KEEP YOU GUYS UPDATED!!
SNIPED ENTRY 15M TF1.Price is bearish in all time frames Weekly, Daily, 4H. However, as price reached a demand zone in 4H TF, we dropped to LTF 15M and waited for a break of structure i personally wanted 15M TF pull back to take out liquidity from a high but wasn't possible.
2. As liquidity is what move the market there's a ton up there which means price will go and grabbed it all, that's why i have a very extended TP which is exactly where my supply zone is in 4H TF.
im still bullishlast daily deviated from my trendline. to me that could be a swing fail and a shakeout to shake weak hands.
reasons to consider: there is CPI data today and on 10/10 theres the tesla robot event a big fail could prove to be a priced in scenerio and the start of the nuke today with the following nuke tomorrow.
for me i am a big believer of tesla so im bullish for me i may have another buy oprotunity on the vola vola today.
as for the pattern in question we have a 48% on the cup depth 32% on the handle depth 44% on the parallel channel that is still part of the handle.. make of it what you will.
i dont believe tesla will break out before the 10/10 but will swingfail the down level even (especially) on bullish cpi data (if anyone knows how hedge funds like to operate).
there are bad lows at our current level and at 226 (which is also previous resistance)
a sweep would be an amazing bullish retest that may or may not fail but the oprotunity is there and it all depends on how aggressive you'd like to trade or invest.
Trendlines are current value ranges
The upper teal drawings are potential double top that has formed and if we reject a potential double bottom (rsi will print an rsi div on 30 mins and may potentially swing up to the upper part of the channel causing an overbought on 4hours and daily)
Vwap will confluence with the 100 daily ema that could potentially be a good entry but there's also the potential of the 150 and 200 bullish retest even though in my opinion that would ruin the cup and handle entirely although the liquidity idea would stay the same i'd be sad to see the pattern go.
if we dont swing fail the bullish retest i will look to swing fail the lower trendline for another liquidity pool grab which is also the yearly value area poc.
if all fails and we go bearish on tesla i will trade the consolation prize from valow to vahigh (a lower high and on the higher timeframe and a full rotation play)
the bullish idea is if tesla preforms and the vah turns into the new poc/val and said new value range would be between current to 400-500
i hope i made enough sense and that my ideas are interesting for you. good luck to everyone.
EURCHF strong bullish expectations for next periods
EURCHF price break trend line. Currently here strong bullish expectations still for next periods. EUR still keeping power after ECB from last week, for those which dont know (ECB rate cut is start being effective from this week).
Technical side on EUR still bullish.
TP: 0.95600 (90)
TP2: 0.96100 (140)
SL: 0.93850
AUDNZD strong bullish expectations for next periods
AUDNZD RBA coming in new week, technically what can see on medium and long term AUD having strong bullish expectations.
I watch on AUDNZD like "speacial" pair, what we are can see in last periods we have and changes on EUR and USD rate cut are start going lower, believe that will same have impact and on AUDNZD trend, expecting now stronger bullish changes on this pair for next medium and long term periods.
This period for me is highly good for entry long. Currently price on strong trend line. And +bouncing from this week on strong weekly zone (1.08100).
Expectations for RBA are bullish boost for AUD.
TP: 1.12000 (300)
TP2: 1.14000 (500)
Bitcoin - MORE INCREASE? Have to see THIS FIRSTBitcoin has been giving us some positive vibes as buying pressure shows up on lower timeframes. We've even managed to keep the price above $60k - an excellent sign of strength.
However, before considering more upside there really is just ONE thing we need to see - higher lows.
For as long as we are unable to breakout ABOVE the diagonal resistance zone, we'll just be stair stepping down into a slowburn, slow decline until point 4 is established and we're ready to complete the final impulse wave up (4-5).
Making higher lows would result in prices back towards the upper 60's, with a successful retest of the neckline support.
EXTRA FOR EXPERTS - Here's how to use the Bitcoin Dominance chart together with the Altcoin market chart to gauge the next direction of BTC:
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Entry Types Simplified: The Essential Guide for New Traders!Key Structures and Formations:
Ascending Channel:
The price has been moving within this channel for a while. An ascending channel indicates an uptrend but also signals that the price is forming higher highs and higher lows, which can later break either direction.
Bull Flag:
A classic continuation pattern where after a strong bullish move (flagpole), the price consolidated before continuing upwards. This was a great entry point for traders watching for bullish momentum.
Failed Flag:
It appears there was a bull flag that failed to continue upwards and instead reversed direction. This type of failure is a strong indication for traders to reconsider their long positions or take partial profits. Often when a flag fails, it can lead to an aggressive move in the opposite direction.
Zones:
4HR, 1HR, 15M LQZ (Liquidity Zones):
These zones mark areas where liquidity is expected to be high, which means these are key levels to watch for price reactions.
The 4HR LQZ around 2,622 and the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 are critical areas for price retracement or reversals, particularly in a trending market.
Current Price Action:
The price is currently hovering near the 15M LQZ (2,655.443), which could act as a short-term support/resistance level. Watching how the price reacts to this zone will provide insight into the next move.
If the price continues to drop, the 1HR LQZ around 2,639 may provide support. If that fails, the next likely target is the 4HR LQZ near 2,622.
Recommendations Based on Confluence:
Check for Multi-Touch Confirmation: If the price interacts with the 4HR or 1HR LQZ zones multiple times and forms a base, this could serve as strong confirmation of a potential reversal or continuation.
Comprehensive Patterns: The failed flag within the larger ascending channel provides a great example of how smaller patterns (failed flag) can give clues about larger moves (channel break).
Follow the Trinity Rule: As per the Trinity Rule, wait for multiple confirmations across different structures before entering a trade. The liquidity zones and patterns within patterns provide a good basis for this.
Swing Trade Set UPA simple, Swing Trade Set UP. Often it is simple trade setup that make lots of money. This is one such set up. Here trend is captured with alignment of MA's . 3 MAs are plotted EMA-10, EAM-21 and SMA 50. To pick the trend, first condition is EMA-10 > EMA-21 > SMA 50. Second condition is price above all these MAs. In the chart it is marked wherever this occurred.
Now to make entry you have to wait till the stock out performs the Index. It can be captured through plotting a indicator named RS or Relative strength. use Bench mark index as #NIFTY50 or #CNX500.
You can see that there are areas where MAs aligned but RS was negative and trend failed. But when all these aligned price moved up nicely. You can exit the trade on deceive break of EMA 21 or SMA 50.
Try this on many charts and lean the nuance before making actual trade.
How to Adapt Your Trading Plan to Any Market ConditionDaily Trendline Break and Market Structure
The break of the daily trendline suggests potential bearish momentum. However, as the break appears corrective, we must be cautious about interpreting it as a reversal too early. As described in the Trinity Rule, it’s crucial to evaluate whether price is moving impulsively or correctively before deciding.
The market could be forming an arcing structure, which traps traders on the wrong side before reversing, as mentioned in Pattern Separation. This aligns with the idea that the market may retest the trendline or break structure in the opposite direction after a fake-out.
Lower Timeframe Ascending Channel
There is an ascending channel on the lower timeframes, which typically signals continuation of the bullish trend unless there’s a strong breakout to the downside. This is where the Multi-Touch Confirmation comes in; if we get a third touch on this channel without a break, it could present a strong reversal signal.
However, if the price decisively breaks the ascending channel with strong momentum, the next step would be to look for a flag or corrective structure for an entry into the bearish continuation, as highlighted in Running Channels.
High-Probability Trade Setup
Impulse and Correction:
As per Entry Types, a high-probability trade should be executed after the first impulse following a correction. If the price breaks out of the ascending channel, wait for a correction (such as a flag) before entering a short position.
You may look for a third touch confirmation to enhance the probability of success.
Risk Management:
Don’t rush the entry based solely on the trendline break. Ensure the structure evolves, showing a confirmed breakout, especially on higher timeframes.
Manage your stop loss based on market structure rather than arbitrary levels. For instance, if the market presents an impulsive move after breaking the channel, your stop could be above the last lower high.
Market Structure and Valid Trades
Evolve Structure: Continuously update your structure by considering the most recent touches. This avoids getting caught in outdated setups.
Where Are We in Structure?: Evaluate whether the price is impulsively breaking key levels or showing corrective behavior. If momentum is lacking after the trendline break, the bearish setup may not play out.
Trade Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
Price Breaks the Ascending Channel: If the price breaks with momentum, look for a retest or flag formation to enter short.
Manage Your Position: As the Rule of Three suggests, avoid perfectionism. If the market forms a strong flag or corrective structure, trust the process and adjust your stop as the trade moves in your favor.
Bullish Scenario (Long Setup) :
Price Fails to Break the Channel: If the market respects the ascending channel, this could indicate a continuation of the bullish trend. You could enter long after the third touch confirmation or a clear rejection of lower levels.
Multi-Touch Confirmation: This will be a key factor if the market holds within the channel.
Key Considerations
Impulse and Confirmation: Be patient for the first impulse and correction before committing to a trade.
Stay Neutral: Use running channels and the overall structure to keep a neutral mindset until the market gives a clear signal.
Avoid Perfectionism: Don’t hesitate or wait for the “perfect” setup if multiple confluences align. Stick to your pre-trade checklist to avoid overanalyzing.
XAUUSD Flag Breakout Mastery – 100 Pips in Just Hours!You executed a fantastic trade on XAUUSD, capturing a solid 100 pips in 3.5 hours. However, there were additional techniques you could have employed to potentially capture more of the overall move:
Higher Time Frame Confluence: Ensuring the overall trend aligns with the smaller time frame breakout can give you confidence to hold for bigger moves.
Trailing Stop Strategy: This could have helped you lock in profits while giving the trade room to continue further.
Recognizing Momentum: The impulsive nature of the move post-breakout was an indication to hold the trade longer. Momentum trading often provides an opportunity for a bigger run.
Extended Targets: using Fibonacci extensions could have encouraged you to hold for additional profit.
Complete Trade Walkthrough
1. Entry Analysis:
Pattern Recognition & Confluence:
Descending Flag (Bullish): You identified and entered at the top of a descending flag, which is a continuation pattern in a bullish market. The breakout from this flag confirmed the upward momentum, making this a high-probability trade.
Confluence Factors:
Breakout Confirmation: Price broke through the descending resistance line, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend.
Support Zone: The prior lows acted as strong support, providing additional confidence that the price would move higher after the breakout.
This was an excellent, well-timed entry based on price structure. You entered right as the market broke out of the flag, aligning with a momentum-based strategy.
2. Price Action (PA) Analysis:
Impulse and Correction Structure:
Impulse Move: After the breakout, price made an impulsive leg upwards, which you capitalized on. This impulsive move is common following a flag pattern breakout, and the price shot up quickly, reflecting a strong buying pressure.
Correction: You entered just before the impulsive leg, after a period of corrective consolidation, which validated your timing. Once price pushed up, there was a brief consolidation before continuing the uptrend.
Momentum Continuation: Price made higher highs after your exit, indicating that momentum was still intact.
The price action displayed clear continuation signals following the breakout, suggesting that the market was still trending upwards.
3. Trade Management:
Time in the Trade:
You were in this trade for 3.5 hours, which aligns with the short-term nature of this flag breakout. However, the trade ran further, reaching up to 350 pips.
Profit Targeting:
Initial Take Profit (100 pips): You wisely took 100 pips as price approached a prior high. However, the fact that price continued upwards suggests that you might have captured more pips using alternative techniques.
Exit Consideration:
100 Pips Exit: While exiting at a previous high is logical, the lack of signs of reversal (e.g., no strong bearish candles or rejection at key resistance levels) indicated there was still room for the move to extend. The price continuing upward shows that the bullish momentum was strong, and you could have held on for a larger move.
Stop-Loss Placement:
You didn’t mention your stop-loss, but if you placed it below the structure of the flag (and adjusted it accordingly), this would have allowed you to reduce risk and hold for a longer run.
4. Potential Improvements:
Higher Time Frame Analysis (HTF Confluence):
HTF Context: Had you zoomed out to a higher time frame (1H or 4H), you may have seen that the breakout was part of a larger bullish trend, indicating there was potential for the move to continue beyond the 100-pip target.
Price Momentum: The momentum post-breakout on smaller time frames was strong. Checking the HTF would have given more confidence that this wasn’t just a short-term spike, but rather part of a more significant trend.
Trailing Stop Strategy:
Trailing Stops: Once your trade was 100 pips in profit, instead of closing the position entirely, you could have moved your stop-loss up to lock in some profits. This way, you could ride the larger move while managing risk.
Example: After 100 pips, trail your stop just below the previous consolidation or a key structure (e.g., 50 pips back), allowing the trade to breathe and move further in your favor.
Extended Profit Targeting:
Fibonacci Extensions: By using Fibonacci extensions, you could have projected extended profit targets beyond the initial 100 pips. Typically, a flag breakout can lead to an impulse equal to the size of the flagpole, offering more opportunities to scale out of the trade gradually.
Unlock the Market's Hidden Rollercoaster: How to Ride the WavesXau/Usd Review with my trading personality
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, your trading style is likely driven by the excitement of quick market movements and the thrill of capturing early trades. You're probably someone who thrives on dynamic entries, enjoys the fast-paced action, and may have a more intuitive approach to the market. Let’s blend that with risk management to balance your adventurous spirit while still keeping a solid trading plan.
Technical Review for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
1. Key Levels to Watch:
2,595 (Resistance) and 2,580 (Support) are your playgrounds right now. You’re drawn to the thrill of what might happen at these zones.
If price pushes toward 2,595, you might feel an urge to jump in, expecting an immediate reaction. However, I encourage you to:
Embrace your adventurous nature but temper it with tactical precision.
Let the level hit and then wait for a quick confirmation (like a wick rejection or a mini pullback). This gives you both the excitement of early entry and higher probability without losing your edge.
Scenario: Price pushes toward 2,595. Here, your Risk Entry could be triggered:
Risk-Entry Plan:
Enter short at the first rejection of 2,595.
Set a tight stop-loss just above the liquidity zone (2,600), respecting your love for quick moves but protecting from being shaken out too soon.
Target the 2,580 area first, knowing the ride might be wild but worth it.
Why it suits you: It’s a quick decision, satisfying your need for speed, while the tight stop-loss aligns with managing risk. You get that thrill, but within guardrails.
2. Confirmation Entry – Building Momentum:
Confirmation Entries might feel a bit “slow” to you, but they can help ensure you stay in the game longer. Consider them when you want to ride bigger moves, not just quick scalp trades.
Scenario: If price breaks through 2,595, wait for a retest to confirm this zone is now support. Here’s where you bring in your whimsical nature: instead of waiting too long, spot a smaller timeframe pattern, like a bullish engulfing candle or a rejection wick, and go long.
Confirmation-Entry Plan:
Enter long at the retest of 2,595 after a clear rejection pattern. Think of it as waiting for the next loop on the rollercoaster — the bigger move is coming, and you want to be on board for it.
Set a slightly wider stop-loss, maybe under 2,580, to allow the trade to develop without getting knocked out early.
Aim for the next higher liquidity zones, like 2,600 or 2,615.
Why it suits you: This method still lets you catch the excitement of a momentum breakout, but the confirmation gives you more confidence. You still get the rush but with less risk of getting thrown out before the big move.
3. Patterns Within Patterns – Your Playground:
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, you probably love when the market shows intricate patterns — they're like hidden rollercoaster tracks, revealing sudden twists and turns.
Scenario: If price breaks above 2,595, zoom into lower time frames and look for miniature patterns within the broader trend. You might find a bull flag within a larger ascending channel. Entering on these small corrective patterns can satisfy your need for fast-paced decision-making while riding the overall trend.
Plan:
Use these smaller patterns for quick entries. Set your stops just outside the pattern, and take profits quickly as the price breaks out.
Think of it as riding the small waves, but always looking for the bigger momentum move to follow.
Why it suits you: You’re jumping in on short-term opportunities while always keeping an eye on the next big move. This keeps you engaged and allows you to take action when you feel that burst of adrenaline without losing sight of the bigger picture.
4. Managing Whimsical Risk:
Stop-loss flexibility: As someone who enjoys spontaneity, a tight stop might feel restrictive but necessary. Here’s the compromise:
Set initial stops tight (like just above 2,595 if shorting), but allow yourself room to evolve the trade based on market action. If the trade moves in your favor, quickly move the stop to breakeven.
Mental Resilience: Losses will happen, but you need that mental discipline to jump back in without chasing every tick. Treat each trade like a separate rollercoaster ride — whether it’s a good or bad one, there’s always another one coming.
Use your intuition and excitement to recognize evolving setups. But keep a few rules in place to avoid the pitfalls of impulsivity (e.g., no more than 3 trades per day on a single idea to avoid over-trading).
5. Incorporating the Rule of Three:
For the rollercoaster trader, the Rule of Three is your ultimate guide. This rule asks you to identify at least three confirming factors before entering a trade:
Scenario: Price reaches 2,595:
You see a rejection (touch #1).
The lower time frame shows consolidation or a mini bear flag (touch #2).
Momentum begins to fade (touch #3).
Action: This triple confirmation allows you to short confidently, knowing you have the right mix of signals to back your bold entry.
Why it suits you: The Rule of Three still gives you the excitement of quickly entering trades but ensures they are high-probability setups. It prevents you from overtrading out of sheer excitement while still letting you capture those thrilling moves.
Summary Action Plan for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
Risk Entry: When you feel the market is ready to react at key levels (like 2,595), dive in! But do it smartly — use tight stop-losses and a quick decision-making process. Think of it as jumping onto the coaster right before it starts moving.
Confirmation Entry: Use this when you're looking for a bigger, smoother ride. Wait for the breakout-retest combo, then get in for the larger trend move. Stay patient here; it’s worth the wait.
Patterns within Patterns: Zoom into the mini rollercoasters inside the bigger structure. Catch the small waves but keep your eyes on the longer ride.
Trinity Rule : Ensure three factors align before entering. This rule keeps you disciplined while still embracing your whimsical nature.
“Nasdaq's Target is 19,500”Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the Fed meeting. By the end of the year, a total rate cut of 100 basis points is almost certain. This situation leads to a positive risk appetite being effective on the indices. On the U.S. side, retail sales increased by 0.1%. Meanwhile, industrial production in the U.S. pointed to a positivity exceeding expectations with a 0.8% rise.
Technically, if the resistance level at 19,500 is permanently surpassed, the rise could gain momentum towards the 19,700 and then 19,950 resistance levels. On the downside, if the index falls below the 19,100 level, a pullback towards the support levels at 18,800 and then 18,450 might be seen.