Trendtrading
S&P rally continuesAt the start of last week, things didn’t look great for the bulls. There were several signs of weakness that could have easily led to a daily trend reversal. However, that didn’t materialize. Firstly, on Monday, buyers were able to set a daily higher low. Then, on Wednesday, they positioned the price very close to the previous two weeks' high. Finally, with the help of the FOMC, they broke through the resistance, set a new historical high, and held it into the week's closure. All these factors together confirm the strength of the bulls and position them well for rally continuation.
AMEX:SPY outlook for the next week is bullish. Pullbacks should be considered as buying opportunities. Short trades should be avoided unless you are a scalper.
Stay alert of economic data releases on Thursday (GDP) and Friday (Personal Income/Spendings and FED) that could cause some volatility.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
💡 XAUUSD: Forecast March 27Although the price increased yesterday, the D1 gold bar created a very large bearish pinbar, with a very long upper shadow and closed less than 1/2 of the range, closing inside the previous price bar, which was also a bearish pinbar. Such price behavior reflects the weakening of the upward price momentum, suggesting the possibility that prices may continue to level off or adjust downward. D1 gold chart structure is cumulative sideways.
With a strong inverted V structure from above, H1 gold showed strong selling block in the area around the round number 2,200 yesterday. The false break signal occurs when H1 gold surpasses recent price peaks and then quickly pulls back down again. Weakness is visible in both time frames. The main trend of H1 gold today is to wait for selling from the resistance above. If the price breaks out and rises further, you can wait to buy again, because at that time the short-term price increase strength has formed.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast March 27EURUSD yesterday rose to the resistance zone around 1.0855 and formed a selling pressure zone for us. You can enter a sell order with the bearish candle marked with a red arrow as shown in the chart.
Currently, the market is turning bearish. If you look at the low time frame, you can see this downward trend much more clearly. Our current trading strategy is selling. and the nearest resistance area is the supply area and is struggling around the previous peak at the price level of 1.0840. If the price can return to this resistance area, you can find a signal to sell.
Gold: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: Gold
Pattern – Price range
Support – 2154
Resistance – 2187
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Gold daily.
What are we discussing and asking today after looking at Gold?
Could a close above resistance be the move that starts a new continuation higher?
If we see a break below support, this could be a false break and could set up a final HL.
Could buyers be out of gas as price consolidates and can't break resistance?
Good trading.
Decoding AUDCAD's Intriguing JourneyNavigating Waves: Decoding AUDCAD's Intriguing Journey 📈🌊
Unraveling the Downtrend: A Chronicle Since December 23rd
Since December 23rd, the AUDCAD forex pair has been riding the waves of a persistent downtrend. 📉 This downward trajectory has been marked by consistent lower lows, signifying the dominance of sellers in the market. Traders and analysts have closely observed this trend, searching for potential reversal signals amid the bearish momentum.
Signs of a Shifting Tide: Bullish Indications Emerge
Higher Lows and Signals of Hope
On February 8th, AUDCAD reached its lowest point, creating a pivotal moment for traders. However, a glimmer of optimism surfaced as the subsequent price action displayed higher lows, suggesting a potential change in market sentiment. 🔄
OpenTrend's Bullish Signal and Divergence Dynamics
Enter OpenTrend, sounding the bullish alarm on February 14th. This software detected a shift in the market dynamics, indicating a possible trend reversal. Simultaneously, OpenDivergence signaled a bullish divergence, spotlighting the disparity between the price movement and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI). This kind of divergence often foreshadows a change in trend direction. 🚀
Zero Lag MACD Crosses Signal Line: A Confirmatory Move
Around the same time as the bullish divergence, the Zero Lag MACD delivered a bullish confirmation as it crossed the signal line upwards. This alignment of technical indicators underscored the growing strength of the bulls in the AUDCAD market. 📈🔍
Navigating Towards Profit: The Monthly Pivot Point as the North Star
As traders set their sights on potential profit, attention turns to the yet untouched monthly pivot point, residing around 0.88954. 🎯 The price currently moves beneath this key level, presenting it as a strategic profit target. This level serves as both a psychological barrier and a historical pivot, making it a focal point for traders looking to capitalize on the evolving market dynamics.
In conclusion, the AUDCAD pair, having weathered a prolonged downtrend, now shows promising signs of a bullish reversal. Traders are eyeing the untouched monthly pivot point as a potential profit destination, while technical indicators like OpenTrend and Zero Lag MACD validate the shifting market sentiment. As always, traders are advised to remain vigilant, employing risk management strategies to navigate the waves of the market with precision. 🌐💹
🚀 Now, let's get back to the trading desks and turn these insights into profit!
Until our next success, happy trading, my fellow wealth architect!" 🌟💹📈
💡 GBPUSD: Forecast March 25GBPUSD fell sharply in the last session after creating a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Currently, the resistance level of 1.26 is showing signs of being broken, selling pressure is still very strong, continuing to expect the price to go down in the short term, The target is still around 1.25xx. The position to enter a sell order at this time is not good. You should wait for a rebound to the 1.27xx area before considering entering the order.
💡 XAUUSD: Trend down Gold prices continued to slide in the last session of the week after the strong decline signals mentioned previously. Although the buying force is returning this morning, regaining most of the previous reductions, this move has not significantly changed the situation, you can still keep your existing selling strategy, especially We now have an additional bearish pin bar pattern on the weekly, the target is still around 2145 and 2080 respectively.
High Probability Trading Environments Part 2: Liquidity RunsIn this educational video, we'll explore the distinction between High Resistance Liquidity Runs and Low Resistance Liquidity Runs, crucial for identifying High Probability Trading Environments. Our analysis will focus on NAS100USD, providing insights into potential trading opportunities for the week ahead.
By understanding these concepts, you'll gain valuable insights into positioning yourself effectively in the market. Be sure to watch to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key confluences that contribute to successful trading strategies.
Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT and ICT Concepts
Mastering High Probability Trading Environments Part 1
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
💡 XAUUSD: Disadvantaged from USD recoveryThe recovery of the USD during the day put pressure on gold. After sliding to a one-week low, the US Dollar Index reversed course and posted a 0.7% gain, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
According to TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali, the strong buying pressure after the policy meeting appears to have dried up and gold is correcting as the market perceives there are fewer risks associated with policy easing. currency book.
According to the FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June, up from 65% before the rate decision.
💡 DXY: Forecast Next week💲DXY: Last week, DXY had a surge after the FOMC meeting and reached its highest level of the week around 104.2. Regarding technical analysis, we can see that DXY has broken through the Downtrend line and the key level 103.5 - 103.7. With this development as well as the strong increase in the last 2 days of the week, I will appreciate the upward trend for DXY for the new trading week. The target area for DXY will be the next key level area 104.5 - 104.7. You can wait for DXY to back test the trendline and key level around 103.7 and create a reversal signal to continue buying positions.
XAUUSD 100% CONFIRM ANALYSISDiscover an enticing selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key support area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
💡 XAUUSD: Increased sharply after FOMCGold price increased sharply in the past session, breaking the accumulation zone and confirming the triangle pattern and the continuation of the uptrend. Despite not being able to create an ATH in the previous session, the bulls did it this morning, the price briefly broke the 2200 level and then encountered selling pressure again. However, it is likely that the price will still go up as the buyers are still showing complete control, trend followers can look for buying opportunities. The next target for the bulls will be 2050. These price zones are unexplored price zones, so you need to pay attention to round number milestones as important resistance zones.
Trend Trading Strategy for the Heiken Ashi Algo v6Knowing when the RSI and price are in a ranging phase even in the short term can be a difficult process.
You are either #Ranging #bullish or #bearish. At least in the Algo v6 you can get a clear vision of exactly whats happening.
In this video im going to give you a VERY simple strategy on:
1. How to know if the RSI and price are ranging
2. When do i break away from Ranges
3. Am I trending
4. Im trending but whats my confluence to take a long or short
5. Is my range getting bigger or smaller
Enjoy this quick vid and ask questions below.
Thanks everyone.
Gold prices retreat amid strong US Dollar pre FOMC decisionGold prices fell late in the North American session on Tuesday amid a strong US Dollar but despite falling US Treasury bond yields. Market participants await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, XAU/USD prices are set to remain near $2,150 as traders remain uncommitted to posting fresh bets in favor or against the yellow metal.
The non-yielding metal remains subdued as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. In addition to delivering its monetary policy statement, policymakers are expected to update their projections about the United States economy. Growing concerns that the Fed will reduce its estimates for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) keep traders on edge.
Tuesday’s US economic docket featured the release of Building Permits in February, which rose by 1.9% MoM from 1.489 million to 1.496 million. Meanwhile, Housing Starts for the same period saw a significant increase of 10.7%, surpassing the expected 8.2%.
The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen two-and-a-half basis points to 4.296%.
Recent inflation data in the US showed that inflation on the consumer and producer side surprised to the upside, suggesting that inflation is stickier than expected, failing to break below the 3% threshold.
💡 XAUUSD: Strong pressure from USDIt is almost certain that the Fed will not reduce interest rates during the ongoing meeting. However, investors wait for statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to find clues about US monetary policy.
Currently, the spot gold price is still above the threshold of 2,150 USD/ounce. This was the resistance level during the strongest price increase in December 2023.
However, precious metals were affected by information about home construction activities in the US skyrocketing 10.7% in February. This is a signal that the US economy is quite stable and the Fed may further delay the decision to cut interest rates.
The USD hanging at a high level will negatively affect gold.
💡 GBPUSD: Forecast March 18GBPUSD had its second consecutive down day after Friday, but the downward pressure weakened because Friday's D1 bar had a narrower range than the previous down D1 bar. The price inched down from the lower boundary of the Inside bar pattern, and if the bottom of this pattern is successfully broken, it is likely that GBPUSD D1 will decline further.
A small accumulation price range is forming at the lower border of the H1 GBPUSD price range. This type of accumulation around support can lead to a breakdown of the support. Today's GBPUSD H1 trend continues to lean towards selling, following the downward price trend in D1.
💡 GBPUSD: Forecast March 20GBPUSD responded to the support zone around 1.2675, and formed a nice kangaroo tail candle that could be bought. However, currently this candlestick has not been matched, moreover, if we trade in the daily frame, we can only earn more than 2 Rounds of profit from this area.
If you trade multiple time frames, you can go to the lower frame to find a signal to confirm the price direction and then find trading opportunities.
💡 XAUUSD: Next developmentsBar D1 was a bullish pinbar model yesterday, showing that buying pressure pushed up from below for D1 gold, promptly preventing a breakdown from the Inside bar model, which could cause D1 gold to fall further. Because the Inside bar has not broken yet, the cumulative price compression state is still happening for D1 gold. The main chart structure of gold D1 is bullish.
H1 gold yesterday broke the bottom during the Asian session but rebounded afterward, creating a false break below, showing that there is buying pressure below. But the chart structure with gradually lower price peaks shows that there is still pressure to sell above, so today's H1 gold trend continues to be waiting to sell at the above resistance. If there is a breakout - from this resistance, H1 gold will establish an uptrend, providing the basis for the idea of buying later.
GOLD BUYgold was working in bullish trend and is making a retracement to its bullish trend also in H4 its moving downwards in a channel also another confluence is gold has made a support level inside a downwards channel I am expecting a bullish move in near future to its previous resistance level which is also a very strong phycological level so we will be waiting for gold to break the channel and put our trade
here too we have a beautiful chance to put our longs because on this support level we are seeing bullish price action if it breaks this level we will be putting shorts otherwise we will be going long but my strong intuition is GOLD LONG